Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20150109 : vimarsana

BLOOMBERG Market Makers January 9, 2015

And im stephanie ruhle. We have to begin with our top story the past three days it has been the same. Special forces have cornered the 2 suspects in the Charlie Hebdo massacre. Reportedly they have told police they want to die as martyrs. In eastern paris there is been a shooting at a kosher supermarket. Reports suggest that he is demanding freedom for the suspects in the Charlie Hebdo massacre. There is a connection between these 2 events. Caerleon, lets begin with you. What is the latest . The latest we are seeing here 2 kilometers from the site where the kouachi brothers are still there. There is a high school and a secondary school. The parents the Police Taking the bus to another at the moment the police does not want where the kids are going. Obviously, theyre been very conflicting reports about what is happening on the ground. I think that is from the police to avoid any media frenzy and any reporting developing. Hans, give us an update where you are. There is a widening sense of insecurity in paris. Just behind me is where the kosher supermarket is, where we have reports of five hostages and 2 recording to afp have already died. Throughout the afternoon we have seen several stretchers come through. This is a line of policeman and a wall of First Response vehicles ambulances preparing for the worst. We dont have a good sense of where the negotiations are between one or two gunmen inside the Kosher Grocery store. We do know that the French Interior minister has been dispatched and he will be arriving to take command and control on the scene, on the ground. This is the actual security crisis as a political crisis, and you have seen the french political establishment try to stay in front of the store and project an aura of confidence and authority as they seek to assure voters and citizens that the city is indeed safe. To the police have a sense yet of whether the hostage taker at the kosher supermarket knows the suspect in the Charlie Hebdo killings who are cornered by the airport . That is the connection, erik. According to local reports, this is the suspect that was here and it had to do with the shooting in the south of france yesterday the left one policewoman dead. The suspect here and the 2 brothers are friends, they are associated. The question comes from are they part of a larger cell, a larger network, or is there just a casual connection between the two of them . For the entire region around here, the Security Threat level has been lifted. The terrorist threat that was raised to the threat level they are expanding the zone for what they come up french authorities, think good eventually be targets for terrorist attacks. Hans, do you feel safe . There are a lot of Police Officers around. I am not overly concerned about my security. I do think there have been some reports in a city that is been fueling rumors during the day, all shops in a jewish part of town have been asked to close. That is potentially where a great deal of security concerns there are an additional 850 Police Officers that are guarding cultural institutions as well, it should be said, as newsrooms men with big guns defending printing presses. Caroline you just heard stephanie asked hans if he feels safe. What about the typical parisian now that the terror seems to be spreading to different parts . How are parisians responding reacting . To the parents of the children here, they have been very worried all day. They basically were barricaded inside their homes because the police prevented all the people leaving the area, to go out. As i was saying earlier i have family members who live very very close, just a couple of blocks down. They have been barricaded all day. The police the entire area around me here. There are at least a dozen police cars and Security Forces wearing bulletproof vests come heavily armed. As we know, as it stands at the moment, the police have tried to establish some negotiations. At the moment they of not holding at least one hostage in the Publishing House on the industrial zone. There is possession another weapon. Caroline, thank you very much could the latest from caroline connan. We will be checking in with her and also with International Correspondent hans nichols later in the show. Hans thank you as well. You have probably heard at least a few details from todays u. S. Jobs report. The economy added 252,000 jobs last month more than economists forecast and capping the best year for employment growth since 1999. There are two frustrating, persistent trends in the labor market and both worsened in december. Wage growth stagnated even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5. 6 . If anything, it makes it even harder to call the feds next move, but rick reader is going to make one anyway. He is at black rock, the Worlds Largest money manager. Also with us economics manager michael mckee. Wage growth is frustratingly only a 1. 7 yearoveryear and the Labor Participation rate is going down. What can we define from these lines . Couple things. First is you have an economy that is moving along quite nicely. The topline headline numbers are pretty impressive. However, there are structural changes to the economy taking place in a pretty powerful. You think about technology impacting structural change in the system. Youre creating what is very difficult. Think about what happened recently in terms of retailing. A huge change in how retailing is taking place in the country. There is a lot of disinflationary effects on the economy one more time, what does that mean . Take energy as euphemism for what is happening in the system. We have horizontal fracking incredible growth in the system. You have Technology Changing from Data Transmission to robotics to systems to software that is allowing you to operate your business more efficiently. The number of routine jobs in the system are going away. But skilled workers are insignificant demand. You are changing the demand of dynamic of the economy and you are changing the dynamic of the economy. And with todays number, it was the perfect example of why that is taking place. Does it dul what the fedl where the fed has to go . Monetary policy cannot alter these forces. It is time to move on and by the way, the ecb and the bank of japan are giving you an incredible window to do it because of the pressure it will keep on rates. You dont think there are members of the fomc who look at those numbers and many more on the dashboard and say hey, wait a second, there isnt nearly enough pressure in the labor market to justify an increase in the fed funds target . By your statistically accreted 3 million jobs, the highest 1999. We are growing at 290,000 jobs over the last three months. And you are seeing, by the way, 200,000 was the benchmark the much mark upon which you could start raising rates. Meaning the fed we shouldnt be a 0 funds rate. The key represent funds rate in an economy like this makes no intuitive sense. As you said, it allows the fed no inflationary pressures allows the fed to be patient. I would argue it has been incredibly patient moving the funds rate 25 basis is over 4 periods to get to a 1 funds rate. That is easy policy. Michael mckee has also been incredibly patient, so lets give him a chance. What do you think, michael . It is a little bit like having too much to eat. Happens to me all the time. There is a vague feeling that theres something wrong out there. A couple things play into that. There are different wage measures. The employment cost index, which the fed follows more closely has been rising faster than the wages here. We will discover that when we get those figures later in the month. The other is that at this point it is really hard to say why wages went down this month. What is the conservative factor . What is the contribution factor . The biggest decline of all came in the oil and gas area. We did not lose any jobs according to the jobs numbers but we did see a 1 drop in wages in that category and that may be the result of people fracking thing. Of the whole fracking thing. It gives political cover. They dont have the inflation pressing on them that they would otherwise have to respond to. The question now, as they get towards the middle of the year disinflation is a lagging indicator. Do you move based on what you are seeing and figure inflation will follow, or do you take a chance, as Alan Greenspan did in the late 1990s, and say maybe it is not going to end we can be lower for longer . Whenever the fed does move presumably in anticipation of the feds move, there will be movement on the front end of the yield curve. Most of the attention remains on the 10year and a 30year, 2. 6. There are many people ive talked to who say he doesnt make any sense for the 10year to be at 2 and makes even less sense for the 30year to be at 2. 6. Given the inflationary impacts for a fact the structural changes you believe has happened to the economy, do those number smack sense . Do those numbers make sense . Fair value of the 10year is closer to 2. 5. We live in a world of extraordinary policy. If you are a Global Investor you have to put money to work. It has been able told story about you have got to put money to work relative to the rest of where the rates are. There is another dynamic at play weve talked about the system is not creating enough fixed income because globally we are deleveraging. Theres not enough assets at a reasonable yield, and 10year treasurys serve two functions. One, they give you some yield in a world that is not giving you enough and they also provide a hedge against risk assets. You think about october and is part of a balanced portfolio which we believe in today, holding some 10year treasuries and long municipals and the interest rate, even though you are not at fair value, they give you some balance to your portfolio. That is the way to invest. This is a really important point and brings back the greenspan conundrum from the early 2000s. Bernanke said it was because there was excess of saving in the world, so much money coming into the United States that it was putting pressure on rates. Bill that they said we may be seeing the same thing and then in a speech in december because what is going on around the world, people are looking to buy longerdated paper with higher yields and they are coming to the United States to do it. If that is the case it raises the question of does the fed misinterpret this and leave rates too low for too long because they are protruding into these outside forces . Does this number mean more investors will flood money into u. S. Investments and out of European Investments . Europe looks i wouldnt say weaker than ever but certainly doesnt look good. What is it going to mean for your . For europe . The answer is yes, the dollar will continue to appreciate. You think of cash flow in the u. S. Relative to leverage and liquidity and compared it to the rest of the world, the u. S. Is in a stable equilibrium. Think about where european rates are on the distortions created by Monetary Policy. It is hard to argue that europe is in equilibrium. You and not creating enough growth relative to the leverage. Europe is about to create even more distortion. What is that going to mean . When you think about the way markets go in cycles and you think about every four years or you go back to 1994, 1998, 2002, markets do well, do welcome to do well, and every 4 years they create volatility and recalibrate. From 2002 to 2006, Monetary Policy was very easy. We are six or seven years into this and now we will press further into more distortion. What it means is you will have a bigger recalibration. You are distorting levels and you are going to have a bigger recalibration. One of the things you have seen in the markets the last five days as people start thinking about these distortions and so much is on the back of mario draghi that it is going to create when you talk about recalibration, you are talking about affiliates continues replacing of assets. Yes, markets get concerned that you are putting pressure on the markets you are distorting levels and at some point you have to recalibrate back to fair value. My guess is he doesnt come for a number of months but we are closer to it today and the markets told you in the last few days than we were a year ago. Interesting couple of months. Genuine 22nd, the ecb meets. Derailment, thank you so much. Gentlemen, thank you so much. We have more coming up. Keep the faith. The herbal life investor who refuses to sell any of his shares in this embattled company. Plus, it was a sellers market for people seeking retail jobs during the holidays. Will those jobs stick around . Welcome back to Market Makers i am stephanie ruhle, along with my partner, Erik Schatzker. John stated gives us a window into the hiring cap jobs data gives us a window into the hiring trends. Julie hyman has been crunching these numbers. How long are they going to keep those jobs . Lets look back before we look forward to see what happens next. The retail job excluding autos and gas stations because that is not capture the regional trend and then you have data back to 2007. With my husband bought me a Christmas Gift at a gas station we would have a problem. A gas card. You are seeing the best hiring trends. This is the octoberdecember period going all the way back to 2007. We are seeing the job market overall comeback to where it was at that point in time, and given that additional demand they were doing this extra hiring over the Holiday Season. But to your point, the question is now will those workers be staying on at a higher rate than they had been in previous years. We dont have anything except anecdotal evidence at this point. There is one economist Gary Rosenberger puts out a note where he talks to a bunch of different staffing professionals who staff retailers during the Holiday Season and beyond. The anecdotal evidence he is seeing is that we are seeing a higher retention rate. Not only that, hes using a word to describe the job market that i have not heard too many other people use, and that is tight. What does that mean . It is hard to hire people. Exactly. Why . Because demand is high and he says theres not that many qualified people. Across the country or in certain markets . He is talking across the country in retail. When retailers during the Holiday Season wanted to hire good workers they actually had to offer wages and bonuses etc. Again, it is anecdotal versus the data we are seeing in the overall average hourly earnings, etc. Nonetheless, potentially could be an encouraging sign going forward. We just need to go through the next month and go through the data and see if it is borne out. On wednesday we will be getting the december retail sales. Again, excluding autos and gas stations. Were you surprised it went under . Yes and no. There was talk about it for a wild. The retailer that you are talking about as some he told me yesterday, they were surprised because they thought he would keep pouring money into it but he decided to stop. Julie, thank you. Julie hyman with the latest on retail hiring. When we return is haiti open for business . Five years after the disastrous earthquake, critics say politics are standing in the way. It is a day of high drama in france. You will see in a moment pictures of a town near Charles De Gaulle airport. In fact, that is what were looking at now. French forces have counted the suspects in the Charlie Hebdo massacre. The suspects, as you know now, our brothers and have told police they want to die as martyrss. Meanwhile, a gun man is holding hostage at a kosher supermarket. According to abc news, these are connected. We will have more on that when we return and also one way to tell us hate he is recovering from the earthquake, you have got a pretty boots on the ground, and that is what i did. Live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is Market Makers, with Erik Schatzker and stephanie ruhle. I am Erik Schatzker. I am stephanie ruhle. It has been five years since the 7. 0 earthquake that devastated haiti. I went there to see for myself if it is setting ready for business and setting up shop. Five years later, great progress has been accomplished. We have managed to relocate 97 of the people that were homeless. We started the reconstruction of the public infrastructure. Part of two buildings, 10 buildings are being read on the reconstructed. Read on, reconstructed. We were in a disastrous situation to where there is a glimmer of hope for a better country. Our next guest, he disagrees. He is the author of for whom the dog spies looking at haitis current politics. We are five years out from the earthquake. Has haiti recovered . No, title think it has recovered i dont think it has recovered. I heard what the former Prime Minister said, but no buildings have been inaugurated. We have a lot of buildings being constructed. But they are all barred. You cannot see what work has been accomplished. No building has been inaugurated. What is the hold up . Almost 9 billion of foreign aid and ngo money supposedly going to haiti. Where is it . I would add more to your 9 billion. Congress says it was 10. 4 billion of the International Community. It also said that the u. S. Had put in 3. 6 billion. Ok, now we are up to 15 billion. No, no, no, that is of the 10 billion. There is this organization in washington that said only 9 of the money went to the haitian government. And of the contracts given by usaid 62 percent went to beltway companies, copies around washington. Companies around washington. Only 1. 5 went to haitian companies. The u. S. One guest past 8 the u. S. Congress passed a law in ju

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