Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20150304 : vimarsana

BLOOMBERG Market Makers March 4, 2015

Shatzker. They are not below the price but below the finishing price on that day. Stephanie i would be calling all of those Institutional Investors that demanded allocation and then complain when they were cut back. This is your time to buy more stock. Go for it. Erik this is the isn nonmanufacturing index measuring the services it economy. The Service Economy is the biggest part of the u. S. Economy and we have an unexpected increase in the measurement tracking this part of the economy. 56. 9, when economists were looking for a dip of 56. 5. This is an increase from the prior month of 56. 7. It indicates the Service Industry grew at a faster pace. Anything above 50 marks growth. We have pretty much been growing since august. Nevertheless, this is good news and shows bad weather was not a factor in this part of the economy in february and perhaps also shows cheaper gasoline and job gains that we have seen over the last couple of months are playing their part in boosting the service industries. In terms of the effect on financial markets, u. S. Stocks are still lower by our parent some of their declines. The dollar is at a session high. We just told you the euro broke 1. 11. Now at a 1. 10 handle. The twoyear currently at 66. 85. Everyone waiting for the ecb and what it says about quantitative easing erik . Thank you very much. Erik thank you very much. Stephanie it is time for the top stories of the morning. The euro is now at an 11year low against the u. S. Dollar. The currency is trading against a 1. 10 handle. The last time it traded at parity to the dollar was back in 2002. We are getting a preview of what the february jobs report look like this coming friday. Adp says Companies Added 212,000 workers last month, slightly lower than the median forecast. Meanwhile, january support was revised upward from 213,000 jobs added to 250,000. A worse than expected corner for Abercrombie Fitch. They cannot seem to find their groove. Comparable store sales were down 10 , missing analyst estimates. The store struggle to learn customers over the holidays. Meanwhile, they are looking for a new ceo still. On the Company Conference call with analysts today, the executive chairman arthur martinez, was asked about the search. The process is moving at acceptable pace but it is important to know that these things take time and it is more important to get the right person and to move quickly. Stephanie while this takes time, shares are down as much as 8 . Analysts and investors do not like it. Janet yellen is answering critics in congress who say the fed is too cozy with the banks it regulates. In a speech last night, the Federal Reserve chair set the fed works hard to avoid what she called regulatory capture. We enforce strict ethics rules and promote strong values among our employees among them a commitment to public service. It is important that anyone serving the fed feels safe speaking up when they have concerns about bias toward industry and that those concerns being addressed. Stephanie democratic senator Elizabeth Warren has been one of the feds biggest critics. She says the fed is to differential to large banks. The collapse in oil prices is having an impact on exxon mobil. The World Largest Energy Company says it will spend almost 12 less on Capital Expenditures this coming year. They are planning on a 34 billion amount of capital expenses next year. A new twist on that story about Hillary Clinton using personal email or official business while at the state department. The Associated Press says her computer server was traced back to an Internet Service registered to her familys home. That would give her extraordinary control over limiting access to her messages. Clinton has not said whether she use private email instead of a state department account. This problem does not sound like it is going away. Erik four seemingly innocuous words. That is why obamacare is back in the Supreme Court. At this hour, justices are hearing arguments that will determine the future of the Affordable Care act. Does the phrase established by the state bar the federal government from establishing a Health Care Exchange . Most of the Health Care Industry and others are involved. With me right now is drew armstrong and phil mattingly. Given the way that lower courts have ruled, it is a prize to some that it landed at the Supreme Court at all. A surprise to a lot of people. The constitutionality of the law was almost always viewed as the best chance the opposition have to take it down. A libertarian think tank. Of these four words and really made a case for it over a period of time. The Supreme Court decided to take the case is no joke. This is a massive threat to the law. If the court rules in favor of the plaintiffs here, as many as 7. 5 Million People currently receiving subsidies would lose them. That would more or less got the law entirely. Stephanie do you really think that will happen honestly . The biggest thing is what people will be taking from the justices said. A lot of people thought that in 2012, obama going down for sure. It is tough to say. It could go either way. That is why theres so much energy, so much intrigue as well. Stephanie for me, it breaks my heart. Whether i supported it or not, at some point, put your pencil down, this is the law, move on. Erik it went in a way that people did not anticipate. If you paid attention to the reactions of the justices to the argument being made over the Affordable Health care at in the previous case it would have seemed at the time that they were set to rule against it, and then with that surprised swing vote by chief Justice Roberts, it was upheld. 2012, a lot in quest built over the arguments. Everyone said here is what will happen. Anyone that comes out of the courthouse today and says this is how the court will rule, do not listen to them. Nobody knows. It may take as long as june. It seems like a technical matter, and you make an excellent point stephanie a technical matter. We are really going to hold this up over your words . Erik there is an important philosophical principle here called constructionism. We know one of the justices on the court feels strongly about it. Antonin scalia. This is something that he passionately believes in. Laws should be interpreted according to the words used to write then, as opposed to the notion that you can divide the intent of the lawmakers. May be given the fact that this was recent history, that is not such a difficult thing to do but what about laws drafted decades ago, hundreds of years ago . Either you stick to the principles or you dont. Four words is why you have lawyers. Stephanie doesnt that make you sick, that no matter what peoples good intentions are, lets just bring in some lawyers and they were looking to they will continue to argue. Someone say that you should write a lot more carefully. When we did this in the last major Supreme Court challenge, a lot of the law was not implemented. People are not getting injured or subsidies. This year, the government is giving out 22 billion, about 7. 5 Million People would have subsidies potentially put at risk. Further along the law goes, the more entrenched it is in national need, policy. It gets a little hard take away from a policy standpoint. Stephanie once you are giving a subsidy, it is harder to take away. That is where the republican arguments against the law. We will never be in with to get this off the books once we have it. Erik is it overstating the case that obamacare would collapse . There are a lot of different parts of obamacare. This is probably the biggest one. We are going to help you fight insurance. Erik the employer mandate is at stake as well. The individual mandate is probably more important. It says that you have to buy it, now you will not get any financial help. Its a real big issue for hospitals and insurers, who made some concessions in order to get these paying customers. This will create a mess that someone will have to sort through. Stephanie mr. Mattingly, does either side have a plan b . The interesting thing is no. That is one of the administrations main points. They have made clear, they were to lawmakers saying that if this happens, we have no plan b. There is nothing we have that we think the same the law. Drew may disagree with me, but there is no legitimate alternative coming from republicans right now. They know that if this goes in their favor, they will have to try to figure out some type of fix. They have not coalesced around one. The point youre making right now, stephanie, if people see middle to lower income people losing subsidies for health care , losing health care by the millions, that is terrible looking. Republicans need an alternative if this goes through and right now there is not a solid one they are considering. Erik to what extent is this a beaker for what you wish for scenario . I have a feeling that they kind of like those subsidies right now. If you talk to republicans behind the scenes right now they are aware of the problem they could be facing. However, their perspective is that this law is so destructive to the way they think government should work, they would rather have it taken apart and get a shot at taking it on again. Look at what we are doing with trying to fund the government, let alone moving forward with new health care bills. Stephanie on both sides, it seems like all they want to do is hurt their opponent and not think about their constituents. They all care about their constituents in their state, but you have all been paying attention for the past eight years. It is very much about attacks right now, not public policy. There is a lot of argument here about how the justices perceive this, how they are looking at this case. The fact that there is not an easy alternative or even a logical alternative in the wake of this it is hard to say that this will not play a role in their mind. Erik who will end up holding the back here . One of the powerful impetus is a getting things done is the fear of blame. Say what you will about the political system but the fact that you may hold the bag may cause people to act. Are playing a game of chicken right now. Hospitals are probably in a little bit of a world of hurt. You have Companies Like tenet. Texas got one Million People covered under the subsidy law. Florida has 1. 4 million. Close to 30 of their hospital beds are in those two states. All of a sudden, those people will not be paying customers. Stephanie playing a game of chicken in a scenario that is about peoples health. Really, that is a good idea washington . Thank you for joining us, phil mattingly. Erik andrew armstrong. Stephanie what is wrong with alibaba . Shares have not been this low since the ipo last fall. Everyone who wanted to buy on the deal, time to buy today. Erik abercrombie shares are plunging. We will speak to some retail veterans on how to fix the broken company. Erik it is time to bring you up to speed on the top stories of the hour. The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the case that may determine the future of the Affordable Care act. It challenges the fact that only 16 states build their own exchanges, the rest of them using the federal healthcare. Gov system. Those that did not create their own system are not eligible subsidies according to four werent in the law. A big deal in the credit card business today. Citigroup agreed to issue most of its consumer and debit cards on the mastercard network. The arrangement the last 10 years. Citi will begin shifting more of its consumer business to mastercard. Citi will now work on a deal with visa to issue cobranded costume cards. The willis tower in new york city is up for sale. Numeral only know it by its old name, the sears tower. The owners currently include two new york investors. The tower may fetch as much as 1. 5 billion. Stephanie bad news for jack ma. Shares are at their lowest since last years recordsetting ipo, don more than 30 since hitting a record in november. There has been concern about slowing sales growth and increased competition in china from companies. Our Senior Intelligence analyst has been looking into it. How have things changed so much since the ipo a few months ago . I dont think all of has changed. Stephanie a hot deal that no increase attention to, they just one in. First quarter out of box was not a great quarter. When you have a big valuation like this, the revenue missed. That is what started the issue of is the growth slowing . Then you have a chinese economy slowing. That brings in the whole longterm growth story for alibaba. Then you have some competitors out there that are putting up some pretty good numbers. Stephanie all of these things were not that different when the deal came and no one was having these conversations. The amount of stock that was treated with huge which would lead one to believe that everyone climbed in and end up to. Then dumped it. We saw this with facebook. They have their own issues. The stock has to reset and then what the stock is looking for that is the next catalyst. Erik the alibaba chart looks suspiciously like a twitter post ipo chart. So once they figured out mobile . That is exactly right. For alibaba it is as simple as putting of a quarter that beats expectations, particularly on the top side. They are still putting up extra near growth. Nobody dont the longterm growth story of ecommerce in china. Clearly, it would be nice to see them put up a couple of nice numbers the next time they report earnings. There is also a lot of noise on the stock on the regulatory front that will always be there. Taiwan has said maybe you need to get out of taiwan because of some of your corporate actions. A small news item but definitely an issue for the stock. You also have the issue of or some of their merchants paying people to process customers to drive traffic and sales . It goes back when you think about ecommerce in china, there are a lot of day today risk operations in terms of fraud. Alibaba is all over him but it is a tough act to deal with daytoday. Lots of noise around the name and it is not helping. Stephanie when the deal was coming, we had so many conversations we never talked about the fraud issues in china. Everyone had alibaba fever. Erik lots of people did. Lets not forget, they bought in. Anyone who bought in, bought at 60, now at 82. So they still make money. Stephanie and they have already sold. Erik many have. Over 300 million shares could be coming onto the market in the spring. A couple of things that the stop me to digest. The company and the stock needs a reset and a new catalyst. I think the new catalyst is a simple as putting up a good number to wake everyone up to the longterm story. They have the work cut out the question. Stephanie thank you, paul sweeney. Erik m we will return after the short commercial break. Erik traders when you see him growth in oil stop files is finally slowing down. We will bring the latest numbers on crude inventories and a couple of minutes. Stephanie Abercrombie Fitch says it has a new strategy to turn itself around and it starts with getting rid of those half naked models, which last i checked was their original winning strategy. Can they turn it around and bring those big lines back to their hot stores . Live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, this is Market Makers with Erik Schatzker and stephanie ruhle. Erik some stunning news out of the commodities market. Stephanie weekly crude inventories are out. I will send you to the newsroom where scarlet has the headline. A much bigger build than anticipated in terms of inventories. 10. 3 Million Barrels added in the week ending february 27. Analysts were expecting 3. 80 9 million, so this is clearly the highest in five years. Our producer telling me the highest in five years. A big building crude Oil Inventories. We know there is plenty of domestic supply here. When you look at how it plays out in the commodity markets, not surprisingly, you see crude oil going lower. Dipping below the 50 a barrel mark trading right at that level at the moment. Over the long term, oil has been basically stuck between this range of 47 and 53 and has not really straight from this as people try to anticipate how much more these companies will continue to grow cut production. Crude oil down 1. 2 , extending its declines, no below 50 a barrel. Now below 50 a barrel. Erik Stephen Short is here, the editor of a widely read newsletter about crude and other hydrocarbon products. It is not just the crude Oil Inventories but pretty much every measure for which there is an average estimate among we survey came out ahead of expectations. Gas inventories dont instead of stretching. Distillate inventory did not shrink as much as anticipated. Does this tell us . We have too much supply in the market. The very large building crude oil is not really unexpected. Because of the weather in philadelphia, we had a number of refineries to have to close down. Delaware was frozen over. In california we had a significant event at the exxon torrent refinery. Sibley not a lot of demand. Torrance refinery. Simply not a lot of demand. The upper quadrant of the u. S. Was encrusted in snow and ice. Right now we do not have a lot of demand on both sides. Erik lets assume for the moment that you are the smartest guy in the room. Stephanie he definitely is right now. Erik talking about the proverbial room. They knew the northeast was encrusted in ice, that delaware was frozen over that they anticipated and inventory build a less than 4 Million Barrels. Trying to anticipate the movements in the oil market on a daily basis, the only reason

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