Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20150422 : vimarsana

BLOOMBERG Market Makers April 22, 2015

A lot better than what economists are looking for. A 3. 1 advance. The allimportant spring buying. We arty have increases for pending home sales. Existing home sales are lagging behind. We were down slightly. A little bit of an uptick following latest home cell numbers. Not changing all that much. Still changing when it comes to the dx why. Very quickly here, lets pull up the 10 year yields. It is yielding at session high. The eu says they may have pose unfair prices by from some European Countries to others. It expects there to be a solution with the help of the russian government. Here is what comcast plans to do in today passes crucial meeting with the Justice Department on their merger with Time Warner Cable. I do not have this right. Listen now and make an offer later. People familiar say lawyers will listen to the deal. Government antitrust lawyers are expected to emerge and arguing the deal would mean fewer choices for consumers. Marissa mayer knows how to get investors excited. The yahoo ceo exploring options for the companys stake which could signal a sale. Yahoo stake in yahoo japan salyers 8 billion. Earlier firstquarter revenue fell 4 . Video streaming for yahoo . Increased caused our average number to grow. In total, worldwide video streams almost doubled up 89 . Stephanie shares have tripled since Marissa Mayer took over in 2012. Promising to unveil the latest turnaround plan as early as next month according to the new ceo. The roless largest restaurant chain needs help. U. S. Sales fell for the sixth straight quarter and global sales fell as well. Investors are apparently feeling optimistic about the turnaround plan. Shares are up today. President obama normally chooses accuses republicans a plain politics and now he is doing the same thing with democrats on the trade deal. The president says democrats have been wrong and misleading. One of those critics is senator Elizabeth Warren. President obama i love elizabeth but she is wrong on this. When you hear folks make a lot of suggestions about how bad the trade deal is, when you dig into the facts, they are wrong. Stephanie some democrats say the new trade deal would hurt workers and depress wages. The president says it includes some of the toughest safety provisions in the history of the United States trade deal. French police have ordered a potential terrorist attack on churches p or frances interior minister says Police Arrested a 24yearold man and found weapons, ammunition, and software. The attack was planned for this past sunday. France has been on hilar since the terrorist attacks at Charlie Hebdo in january. Soldiers and police have been patrolling for parcel death for possible targets. Eric cocacola reported profit beating analysts estimates by the widest margin and four quarters. The ceo called 2015 a transition year and he is grappling with americas sugary drinks. How much does it say about coke that they had Revenue Growth of 1 but if you put it in context, it is against declining revenue for more than two years. That is a good way of thinking about it. Revenue growth, really the engine that will drive their algorithm. People are watching the metric closely. It is nice revenues were higher for when you think about that, a lot of it was because of the rollout of higher unit pricing. For longterm investors, cocacola is a little less promotional in the u. S. For carbonated soft drinks. You want to see sustainable volume growth. Price increases can be elusive over time but volume growth it is kind of week i think that 1 lime growth also a plus 2 , modest p or nothing to write home about. They benefited from an early easter by an. Also six extra shipping days and plus lower gas prices. You would assume there are more purchases. I think 1 is a little disappointing. Stephanie why are we seeing emergency emerging markets . Well, you know it is tied to macroeconomic trends. Brazil seems to be mired in restrained spending. Mexico had an excise tax increase last year, which is hurting the carbonated soft drink business. They are a big market for coke. Theyre not getting the emerging markets they would like to get and what investors had expected a little while ago. This has been pretty much dead money for years. What does he need to do to supercharge Earnings Growth and restore the confidence of his investors . That is a good question. I believe in is to be bolder with acquisitions. It has gotten an equity stake in monster beverages to strong growth stories. But the Equity Income line is not exciting investors as much as it would for owning all the sales. Im saying acquisitions are a key role for the stories and Companies Need to be more aggressive. Eric anything in the portfolio they should get rid of . Quite fit is a pretty focused company, for better or worse. The conundrum cocacola has is akin to cigarette companies. When you start diversifying away from an inherently highmargin coke has 61 margins and a lot of companies can say that. Because of the efficiencies and the serbs going in them are so attractive, the more you diversify away from it, youre kind of reducing the inherent profitability of the firm at the gain of some growth. a crazy question before we wrap up. Do you think we will see coke moving in the direction of aaa and mcdonalds may be responding to the things consumers do not like . They are turning off growth hormones in the food they eat it with a turnoff High Fructose Corn Syrup in the drinks they drank . Coke is looking at a balanced portfolio approach. Trying to diversify away from high sugar drinks. Some of the consumer backlash and concerns about that. At the same time, a loyal group of consumers do like that beverage. They could put sugar in that and make it tastier, in my opinion. They are trying sweeteners like cane sugar. As you know, they had died drinks for a while here at consumers are rejecting some of those ingredients, aspartame and so on. It is a balanced approach. Investment in coconut water. A plantbased protein trick in china, doing the best they can to diversify. Eric we thank you. A tough job for cocacola. Stephanie breaking news for you out of london. Accuse of helping to figure the crash, scarlet fu at our news desk for what with more. Scarlet the vendors 36 years old, conditional bail. We do not know the amount yet. This is the only headline we have to work with this right here. In may of 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial average and other index is plunged. Losing 1000 points over the course of a couple of seconds that afternoon before recovering just as quickly. He said he will fight efforts to expedite him to face the charges in the u. S. We will keep you posted on any new developments including the dollar amount on the bail he has been granted. Stephanie we have got to take a break. When we return, more on the man u. S. Regulators say helped cause the crash. We will take you to london. Eric you could call the scientists a real visionary. He made eye surgery possible. Eric breaking news on the 36yearold day trader in britain who u. S. Prosecutors say helped trigger the 2010 flash crash. Theyll will be set at 7. 5 billion. They named a new culprit here this man behind the flash crash. You remember hearing this man also involved. Prosecutors say he is responsible for one every five orders in that meltdown that saw the doubt drop thousand points in minutes. A fascinating story. Lets bring in ryan outside in london. He is now ceo of convergence. Tell me what you are hearing on the ground. What do people know about the man who ran a manipulative operation in the shadow of the planes at the airport . That is right. That is what the neighborhood is best known for another plane went overhead, which is very workingclass neighborhood. One of their own could have made 40 million in a fiveyear time for trading. We talked to a good indian family. The one im sitting next to her the one the parents lived and where he was arrested yesterday. People say he pretty much kept to himself and i spoke with a taxi driver he while ago who says he last gave a list to a Software Company about 20 minutes from here, three years ago. They do not know much about what hes up to now, but theyre very surprised with these allegations the u. S. Is making that actually he was a day trader manipulative u. S. Market and played a huge role in the flash crash. Eric you witnessed this stuff happening. This loan gentlemen i will not call him a rogue because he was not working for anybody. Working for himself. Because because he was essentially a look lone wolf so finding out about it now is quite interesting five years after the fact. Eric but what does it say about the integrity of the u. S. Equity market that this guy, who is now 36, and clearly was a few years younger in may of 2010 when the flash crash took ways, that somebody, acting alone without much of a sophisticated background in trading for many of the wellknown firms could cause is kind of disruption. It raises questions about who might be doing it today. Eric n those are legitimate questions. How was someone like this able to do these things in the market . I want to make a couple of points around that. This was not the equity markets even though the equity market experienced the flash crash. This incident ended up driving equity prices. They also learn a lot coming out of the flash crash and put a lot of safeguards in place to prevent these kinds of behaviors. New market wide Circuit Breakers up and down an individual securities. Pretrade market rules for Market Participants to prevent the rogues from the market. A lot of lessons were learned coming out of the flash crash have been put into place now as we go forward. Stephanie explain to us what he did. Spoofing, which became illegal in doddfrank was crashed passed in 2010. Any given security regulators and criminal prosecutors can give it a form of market manipulation. It is only the second criminal case with charges that we have had since doddfrank was passed. We had michael, on six spoofing charges. One of the interesting things why did it take them five years to figure this out. Trading up to a year ago. Those are the questions of the regulators and future exchanges how did all the volume keep slowing through even after safeguarding . Eric n i am not sure in the specific instances of this, i look forward to looking at them. The industry is trying to resolve for itself back to regulators. Legitimate questions to answer here as to how the Single Person has access to the marketplace. Eric on the one hand, we want to give credit. On the other hand, even before it becomes a criminal case, they oversee the market. What room do they have to step in . A Market Structure and then criminal prosecutors have to go through a technical high bar. Obviously, prosecutors cannot regulate the market or be responsible for Market Structure. Eric should the cme itself i am not familiar enough with the structure of the futures market. I know more about if there is a selfregulatory policing role to play here . Eric n the cne take responsibility for associations for the future side of the business. I do not have enough facts to make a judgment or no what they were doing or examining this or really whether this gem ins activity rises to the level of criminal activity. Eric even if it does not come it is a confidence issue. We have been wrestling this ever since the flash crash and ever since the meltdown in u. S. Equity markets in the wake of the financial crisis. Look at the trading volumes. They are coming back but it is taking years. People are afraid. When they open up the newspaper or listen to our conversation they ask themselves if this guy could mess with the equity Market Industry and was allowed to continue trading until i think it was april of last year what business do i have in the market . Eric n going back to the changes in lessons we learned it is a complex market and we know that. It is electronically linked to one another and there is fragmentation and a lot of concerns we are trying hard to dress as an industry. Real reform has taken place and real changes have taken place. To the earlier point about people being scared for the equity market, since the financial crisis of 2000 8009, equities have had a nice return. Eric and a lot of people were afraid to trade. They missed out on that. Eric n i think if you look at the history of what happened here, equity markets work well. There are changes and reforms and necessary things but i think the markets generally work well for liquidity. I wanted to say is one thing that is remarkable we know now from u. S. Prosecutors, it is important what we have not heard from himself is the cme did contact him at least twice in march of 2010 and then may 6 2010, the day of the crash, to say it like your trading is not actually getting executed. These orders you are making. It is important what you do be bona fide trade. We also know from prosecutors that he told a friend, his broker, that he called cme to tell them to kiss my you know what. One thing as a reporter to think about it looks like there were two near catches that did not lead to anything. He was maybe operating in a brazen way, i have to see what happens if this ever goes to trial. It deftly gets you thinking. Stephanie this case could easily go to trial but the big issue is how they get to this point. I think that we would have to go back to looking at this as a Market Structure. As mentioned earlier, is the market too complex . Eric it is how you stop them from doing it in the first place. Right. There is a flash crash and summon people get hurt in the market and so many people lose money. Eric that is precisely what happened. Our own keri geiger and in london, outside the house. Stephanie it looks like the most exciting thing that ever happened in the neighborhood ever. Besides that, this is big for them. Eric and eric noll, we thank you as well. The men who coined a term with us in a moment. Live, this is Market Makers with erik chester and stephanie ruhle. Eric breaking news on crude oil inventories. A big market mover, scarlet fu with the headlines. Scarlet the expected increase was a bill of 2. 96 arrows. A lot more supplies being added last week to stockpiles overall the United States than was anticipated. There has not been a decline since the first week of january. Supply continues to increase. If you look at how futures are responding, here is the chart. Crude, pretty much stuck at that level. We were down before this and we continue to build right here and now, positive by about . 15, and the longerterm story when it comes to oil is one of collapse. You look at how it has been done, it is one steady drop lower. We have bottomed out and stabilized but the question is is it going back down again . What about production . Has that been reduced enough for all prices . Well be speaking in one week and i pumped. Scarlet fu, thanks. There have been reports all week long that european officials are losing patience with the greek government. It still needs to submit an economic reform plan before getting access to new round of bailout funds. The greek finance minister today said the difference between a two sides are narrowing. He says the best deal will probably leave everyone satisfied. I want to ask the man who actually coined the term abraham, the director of european and Global Economics and just moved to nyc. Abraham, welcome. Abraham nice to be here. Stephanie youre the guy who came up with it. Is it the theme and should we continue to focus on it . Abraham i think the chances are not receding by any means but at the same time, it is a little misleading to characterize the choice or the outlook for greece right now in binary terms. There are many great scenarios right now and i do not think there is a chance we will have a resolution one way or another in the next couple of days or weeks. The bar is being continually raised, as we speak. The economy is tanking, which makes it harder to meet fiscal targets. This will essentially ricochet for various more weeks and then we will run into a bigger issue of help reis can fund itself for the next couple of years. Eric dont you have problems here . The greek government does not appear to be taking demands for reform quite seriously enough. On the other hand, you have the question as to whether patients among the germans and the spanish, and others, will run out. If both of those things continue to happen im not tried to put it in binary terms, but if none of those factors change, we will end up closer if not in one. Ses theyre running out of patience and the greeks are running out of money. But there are other scenarios. You can see a greek default without an from the eurozone as well. I think those scenarios are come become increasingly threatening. Quickly on the subject of default, are mechanisms in place to allow for a greek default without an exit . I do not know the terms. U. K. Law that governs the new bonds. Abraham some of the bonds. There are potentially interdependencies. Eric imf would let greece default . A bram there really are not to the private sector. A lot will come down to the ecb. What will they do it greek debt if greece defaults . That is a key question. He said then we will have to focus on the bigger issue. Besides academics and politicians and greece, lets talk about the market. Does anyone actually care . Do investors care what happens in three or six months or two years, or is everything just a shortterm trade . If it is, what does that mean for greece . I think markets have started to care. We have seen markets starting to price in at least the uncertainty and probability. Uncertainty is what holds investors off, not necessarily a bad resolution. It makes a great deal to greece about how this on the private sector and not just the economy. That is being held up as we speak. Eric you have got a new term and what do you mean by it . Abraham it is a shorthand for those scenarios where greece is not going to get money from europeans and there is no resolution, but you run into greece, potentially with capital controls, perhaps even with a default, remains in the eurozone. Eric lets the back to the markets question. Does this constitute it is not a black swan and not invisible ands not something nobody is ever seen before. But is it a risk . What would you classify it now . Abraham i do not see it being the catalyst for a major financial crisis in europe.

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