Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20150522 : vimarsana

BLOOMBERG Market Makers May 22, 2015

Watch. Erik time for our top stories is one of his best begin with this. German chancellor Angela Merkel is standing out optimism in the greek crisis. They end the night with the leaders of greece in france. Greece once the remaining 8 billion in bailout funds to the void avoid the fall. She says there is a whole lot more to do before that can happen. I will have bilateral talks and have hardly spoken last night with the french president and the greek Prime Minister. It was a very friendly, constructive exchange, but it is clear that further work with the three institutions is necessary. Erik she was referring to the imf. It is behind greeces bailout. President obama says that the u. S. And its allies are not losing the fight against the islamic state. He says more needs to be done to help iraq. They talk to the magazine after isis captured the city of ramadi. Obama says they could use when the war without needing more troops to fight. I can say with full confidence maybe this is a connection, but i can say this with full confidence. The president would not become from old with a full scale we invasion of iraq by the United States military can that is a strategy that do not serve the longterm interest of the United States. Erik the pentagon is sending rockets to the iraq forces to fight off car bombs. Stephanie the senate may vote on the fast track trade bill. This would allow president obama to speed up passage of trade agreements like the asian trade deal that is being negotiated now. Yesterday, the senate voted 6238 to advance the bill. Democrats have tried to block the legislation. They say the trade deal will cost american jobs. Members of the board at j. P. Morgan wont have to face investor lawsuits and that socalled london whale case. That is the ruling from a judge in delaware. Investors had claimed that jpm morgans board did not do their job when they wrote trader in london lost more than 6 billion to the bank. Farm and Construction Equipment maker john deere is raising its profit forecast. They are predicting 2015 earnings that are better than analysts estimates. Sales of the famous green checkers of slowing down. That is offset by demand for Construction Equipment. Uber may be taking another step towards an ipo. The wall street journal says that the service is seeking a 1 billion credit line from large banks. Companies frequently seek credit lines just before they go public. It is seen as a way to force relationships with lenders. Those are your top stories. Now that lyft is in new york are using it . Erik i havent yet. Stephanie i use uber all the time. Im not a loyalist, but i want a car when i go downstairs. Erik im not sure what lyft would if it i want the rights to be cheaper and i want uber to cut commissions. I wanted to cut Commission Rate so drivers get more money. Im all for it. But if that forces them to reduce prices so that drivers get less, im not in favor of that. Stephanie uber is a big evaluation. Erik let us look at the five things you need to watch today. At number one, it is Federal Reserve chair janet yellen. She is giving her outlook for the u. S. Economy. She is speaking at it and event hosted by the Greater Providence chamber of rhode island. We know from the fed minutes that came out a couple days ago that janet yellen and her fellow members of the fed are very concerned about the possibility of another temper tantrum. Stephanie without a doubt. She has so much she needs to focus on. Everyone thought that in june and september that we would see a movie with all the bad data that does not seem to be the case. She is walking the high wire. Erik we are getting that cpi number in a few minutes. Julie might be talking about it. That is something that is going to change or set the stage for what janet yellen is going to say. Stephanie that is our number two. There is a lot of data to watch today. Were going to get that april cpi number at 8 30 a. M. In just a few moments, if you want to watch her movements and oil as we get the latest recount data at 1 00 p. M. That is specifically what boone has said to us over the past few weeks. Just shut down some of them breaks. We will see what the rate count looks like. Erik julie . Julie we saw foot locker release its earnings. It is being acquired by athena and they are seeing more about what theyre going to get. Sales are down 1. 5 . I know that you are all about leisure. Foot locker is up 7. 8 . This really reflects the trend that we have seen. Sportswear has been on a tear. Stephanie i dont wear levis or jeans. I wear workout. I wear workout running around in doing stuff in jeans . Im so tired. Workout close all the time. The sad thing is that it is not exercised. Erik we are watching Time Warner Cable and charter. This is fascinating. According to a person with knowledge of the matter, fcc chairman tom wheeler called the heads of both companies Time Warner Cable and charter to tell them that there is no federal ban on cable industry mergers. Just because comcast cannot buy Time Warner Cable does not mean that charter or perhaps somebody else can buy Time Warner Cable. Tom wheeler wants everybody to know this. They had an issue with the comcast deal but they dont have an issue with consolidation in general. Stephanie i think that is an Important Message to get out. Erik it is unprecedented though. The stuff normally does not happen. The sec chairman does not take to the phone and call them. Stephanie i like it though. Getting off his perch and acting like a real got it i want to take you to number five. It has got to be greece. German chancellor Angela Merkel gave the country every all the country a reality check, saying greater effort is needed to unlock those bailout funds. Also news just out that germanys finance minister is floating the idea that germany excuse me, that greece may need a parallel currency. That would be a cluster. On the corporate front hewlettpackard posted secondquarter earnings. Meg whitmans restructuring efforts seem to assuage worries over winning computer cells. What you make of this . The view is that this is a cost cut journaling earnings speech than something more prolific for the company. Every segment across the board had weak sales growth. Currency had a major impact. They are cutting costs and they continue to do so. That is having affect on the bottom line. From a cash flow perspective things are better. If you look at at the underlying performance from a growth perspective, we are not seeing it yet. There is some flashes of growth in Industry Standard servers. And pc units, vertically on the laptop side. Most of the large segments posted declines. That is not a good thing. Currency continues to have an impact in amidst all the tron bear going to split the company and two. They are going to have charges as part of that. The bottom line is that i want to see topline growth. We do not see it yet. Erik hp is talking aboutd dissynergies. Ive never heard that before. The companies will break into. They will end up spending 450 million more collectively because of the fact that they are two Companies Instead of one. As a result, they have overlapping cost that you see a limited when companies merge. The reverse is going to happen. They talk about the need to cut 3 billion in expenses from the company. Should we have any confidence that they can get rid of it . Stephanie where do you find three alien dollars laying around. 3 billion laying around . Anand you have some tremendous areas where you can take out costs. Renewed focus of the split into gibson and to give them an opportunity to say that they want to be in certain segments and not others. I want to be in certain geographies and not in certain others. Do i want to focus on unit growth or profitability . They are making all those hard decisions. He saw the china transaction yesterday, selling part of their chinese unit. That was for a lump sum in cash. That helps to pay for the breaking up. These are choices that you have to make and they are large numbers, yes. This is also a company that has billions of dollars in sales. You have to find the numbers somehow. Stephanie are they making the hard decisions . It seems like they are slicing and dicing and restructure stuff that doesnt work. At the end of the day, what is the point . Anand that is a fantastic question. One of the things happening to large Hardware Companies is that the market is shifting underneath them. We have this phenomenal move to the cloud. A lot of companies are embracing the potential that. You get stuff cheaper. You get stuff nonbranded. You get stuff in scale. A lot of Internet Companies like uber for example uses a lot of infrastructure from the club. Dont buy your own service or services. When you have that sort of movement, how does hp become relevant again . Enterprise is struggling. These are very tough questions. You are absolutely right. Does the split help them temporarily . Absolutely. Does that answer all the questions in the long run . No. Erik you have to be delighted not to be on the south side anymore. Here is why. Stephanie and i have a longrunning conversation with our viewers about the value or lack there of them beating estimates. Hp Beat Estimates again last night. In fact, hp has the estimates in every quarter but one. Since meg whitman became ceo back in september of 2011. Stephanie it makes it look like a superstar. Erik what has happened to the stock since then since the first army report after meg whitman . To to cover . Down 57 . Stephanie what is the point of the estimates . Maybe they can work at hp and make new products. You know who are shouting more than erik and i . Our producers. We will be back in two minutes. You watching Market Makers pattern in time. At our new time. Erik you are watching Market Makers on bloomberg television. Im Erik Schatzker with my partner stephanie ruhle. Time for top stories. Take over in the cigarette industry is about to get the goahead. Luber reports that Reynolds American is getting antitrust approval for its takeover of lorillard. Reynolds is know for camel smokes. With approval, they will offer to sell ecigarette and its cool brand. In washington, d. C. , police have arrested a suspect overnight of the killing of four people in a mansion. The husband, wife, the son, and the housekeeper were found dead in the house overnight. They demanded 40,000 in cash. The suspect was identified from dna left on uneven pisa crust inside of the house. Police say he had worked for the victims company. The daughter of the Korean Airlines chairman will be released from prison in the socalled net rage case. In february, a korean court did the woman a oneyear sentence. She had ordered a Korean Airline flight to new york after in attended surfer macadamia and nuts in a bag instead of on a play. Those are your top headlines. Stephanie investors traders and Hedge Fund Managers have been sounding the alarm over liquidity in the on market in recent months. But is there fear unfounded . Let us ask andy brenner. Ante, let us start credit. Many people are great that we are back in 20062007 territory. Investors are flocking and looking for yields. If volatility spikes, how are they going to get out . Andy we are different from 20062007. That was a real state crisis. We are at a liquidity crisis. The highyield humidity have access to 250 billion of capital and highyield bonds. That number is under 40 billion today. In highgrade, you have 300 billion of positions from the dealer community. Now it is down to 50 billion. Stephanie since then, we have seen the Hedge Fund Community and real money have more assets under management specifically in credit. If you talk to any of these guys, if they need to sell 15 million of any names and highyield, good luck. They simply cant. Andy absolutely correct. It is going to get worse before it gets better. Central banks of the world have flooded the market with money. Making things cheap. On the on ahead, you have cut back when dealers can do tween the doddfrank rules and bouncing and restricting the fed. The Deal Community is much smaller and secondary trading. Erik help the people out there who arent familiar with credit and do not spend their lives in fixed income trading. Understand why in your words this is a crisis. Andy youre going to have a lot more volatility. Why do you think we are worried about temper tantrums . In the last two weeks, you have had large moves in germany and that is because of a lack of liquidity. You have to understand how things work. Hedge funds, endusers whatever go to the dealer jim that he for liquidity. That dealing community used to be able to take over the other side. Stephanie we have that framework. What is going to happen . Fastforward six months. Andy when the same residence rates in september, which is the expectation right now, i think before them that youre going to have real temper tantrums in the bond market. Youre going to see it in treasuries and corporate spirit youre going to see it and widening spreads. I think it is going to affect the etf market as well. Erik the people who are affected most are those who trade the most frequently, right . Andy most people arent trading as much as they used to. If you are a Pension Fund Manager and you have to raise money, youre going to find it much more difficult to sell something. On the other side, when the market rolls the other way, youre going to have difficulty buying stuff. A lot of the reasons that Corporate Bond markets have gotten larger recently is new issues. You can go beyond on those new issues and it does not matter what sector you are in whether it is emerging markets or high yield or highgrade, liquidity is a fraction of what it used to be. When you start to get some major moves, like if everyone left like leaves say we are going to have a huge amount of moves and people will be panicking and Central Banks will step in. Stephanie art the hedge funds taking the place of Market Makers . Andy absolutely not. Stephanie Josh Friedman said he was doing that. Andy when they get to absolute level. In other words, look at last week. You saw go from 215 to 35 in a matter of hours. If you want to sell 10 years at 225, you will not get a bit. Stephanie hold on. All those additional bodies that those hedge funds have a hiring if you look at the flood of guys have gone to the high side by side, are they looking at jobs . For them going to firms like canyon and marathon, what are they doing is not making markets . Andy they are absolutely not making markets. They are taking advantages in the marketplace. They are not making markets. Erik we have to leave it there. We have a commercial break we have to get to. That is andy brennan. He is from National Alliance securities. Stephanie coming up this hour boys and girls, on disneyland birthday, we are taking a hard look at the money at its parks business and opportunities in china. Speaking of opportunities, valley of ceo and jersey resident tells us where he is hunting for the next big pharma deal. Erik if inflation is truly accelerating, u. S. Interest rates will certainly follow. In a few minutes, we will find out what crisis did in april our economics editor Michael Mckee is here. You say this is going to be an energy stored. Why . Michael the annual rate of inflation may fall. Perfectly gasoline in the month of april as people start driving more and the government i just for that. Erik however in april last year, Energy Prices were a lot higher. Michael at this point, you have to look under the hood. Stephanie pun intended. I like that. Michael inflation followed oil prices down of the past couple of months. If you strip out Energy Prices, after seven months, prices are finally starting to rise again. You can see that in the last two months that they have been up. That trend tells the fed that we are starting to use up slack and we are moving back towards the 2 goal. That is all they want. Erik very little inflation. Michael they want evidence we are moving in that direction. They dont say we need to be there. Erik they dont say we need to be there, but there is a view on where we should be. As far as expectations are concerned for the fed to justify a rate hike. Michael they want wall street to recognize that. In the Inflation Expectation measures, if the cpi goes up and it is not what is following theyre going to get that. Stephanie doesnt wall street went janet yellen to think that we are still suffering . Keep that heroin pumping. Michael this is not a personal survey. This is a my money survey. If you are a bond survey, you wanted compensation. You want to see yields rise. They are not going to let personal feelings about the stock market influence their bond market investments. Erik how does the fed feel about Inflation Expectations as measured the wall street way through things like break evens and Inflation Expectations through other things like the Michigan Survey . Michael an interesting debate on that. Most people say the surveys are better but they watch what wall street is saying. They watch the break evens. They want to know that wall street thinks prices will behind. Whenever they do and Monetary Policy will be reflected in crisis on wall street. Erik yes but ultimately reflected by prices of the real world, too. Michael what wall street is expecting that we have finally passed the worst of it now. We are starting to

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