Nasdaq is 24 points higher, 6 10 of a percent. The bond market essentially quiescent but moving a bit higher in anticipation of perhaps a reasonable day. A 10 year note yield, 2. 5 . 66 basis points for your two year yield. I would not put a whole lot of stock into any of these numbers before 8 31 this morning after we get the jobs report. E are watching the jobs report ,000 jobsast is for 201 to be created and we are supposed to get a 2 10 gain an average Hourly Earnings. We are also watching hurricane. Is beginning to look like you can move that when off your radar screen. The latest computer models show it taking a turn when it comes to the north, and may brushing by the coast of cape cod but no direct hit on the United States at the moment. Watching talks in paris between european leaders. Hollanderkel, francois , and Vladimir Putin are there, on the future of ukraine and what is going on there, but no doubt syria comes into all that. Three days of bombing campaigns by the russians. A report they did attack isis locations as well as the locations that have been attacking of those who have opposed the syrian president. Watching what is going on, the white house, people in washington, a great interest in what president putin is doing this week. President obama met with Vladimir Putin, did not seem to get very far. Chuck todd is the host of meet the press. You can hear it on Bloomberg Radio at 11 00 and 3 00. This is an interesting problem it seems. Vladimir putin can talk all he wants but seems to have impunity in his actions. Chuck i think some of the president s critics will say this is what you get for not checking him sooner, for trying to bring him in when you needed russia to do the iran deal but ended up empowering him a little bit. There fors if, i was you, i am going to start in syria. It is a reminder of what a failure the syrian policy has been. The president has basically never been able to figure out syria. Yes, it is an interactive problem, but it has been paralysis. There has been such a fear of getting drawn into a quagmire that that has become a quagmire. Point,ink at this basically putin has forced the United States to have to consult this andia on essentially change its policy on assad. They are trying to claim they are not trying to do this, but they have no choice or we could get into an accidental military confrontation with russia. I say accidental, because they are bombing people we are training on the ground. How does that end . Mike those kind of questions are why i was asking the other day why anyone would want to run for president. At the other end of capitol hill, 80 things are beginning to sort themselves out after John Boehners resignation. What can you tell us about the leadership . Know who thek we speakers going to be, kevin mccarthy, but he has had a horrible week in getting his campaign off the ground. He blew it in his comments about the Benghazi Committee on he talked about it in political nots and said hey, if it is great what we have been able to do to the clinton campaign, and a bunch of republicans have criticized mccarthy for his words on this. A bunchhe has misread of republican base. They have always feared the leadership is a way to calm the troops, throw them a bone. The leadership never wanted a Benghazi Committee and they slipped as they waved to get conservatives on board when they reopened the government last time. Still goingrthy is to be speaker but he is not going to get a honeymoon, and he is starting in a weaker position. Mike i could see why you would want to be host of meet the press but i do not see why anyone would run for president. Who is on the show this weekend . Chuck i have donald trump. I will sit down with him facetoface. I also have Cecile Richards from planned parenthood, and we will deal with syria and rusher russia. Mike we will be listening to chuck todd, host of nbcs meet the press. As i mentioned, tom keene is up in boston. Has john henry agreed to give you a tryout for the red sox . We have a lot of people trying out for your job. Tom we are looking at it. It depends if mr. Ortiz decides to hang him up because they want somebody slower than david ortiz on the base. My name came up on the list as well. Year as weery quiet get ready for bruins hockey and celtics basketball. The season ended seriously about may 1. We say good morning to everybody on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television or wide worldwide. See how the experts at resnick can help you navigate these complexities. Find out more at cohenr esnick. Com. Jim glassman, what is different this time . Within your Research Going up to 8 30, what is different . Jim trying to make sense of what happened in the third quarter. The little bit of evidence we have from the gdp is indicating the economy has slowed down quite a bit, but everything about the job market has been steady. For me, the most important focus is what is going on. Hours worked appear to have accelerated. Joblessmarket including claims, which i think are the most reliable and most comprehensive picture of the u. S. Economy, they are telling us the u. S. Economy is doing fine at worst, and maybe picking up a little bit in the third quarter. Gdp, wethe problem with have learned by now we should be a little skeptical of the quarterly gdp estimates as the early reads are very volatile and based on limited information. Revisions, and it is a complicated thing to try to figure out what is going on broadly. About theful thing job data, it is very comprehensive. Youre getting a snapshot of what is going on across america. With the jobs data, they are heavily revised as well. What do you tell the president when you have got the numbers and you know in a month from now theyre going to be changed . Alan those are smaller revisions then you get for gdp. Said, the best short run indicator is the Unemployment Insurance claims. One of the things that is nice about the jobs report is you get the Household Survey as well as the establishment survey, and the Household Survey covers jobs that are not covered in the establishment survey, like workers who are paid by 1099s. It is the combination of the Household Survey which gives you labor force precipitate participation, that paint a broad picture. It does not always move together , it tends to be noisy. I would smooth out the noise recovery over the past few years. The job market has been gradually healing and i expect that to continue today. 01,000, not too far below average. Alan krueger with princeton university. Tom keene is in boston ahead of the report the two year yield is. 66 . This is bloomberg surveillance. Mike welcome back to bloomberg surveillance. I am Michael Mckee along with vonnie quinn. Vonnie thank you so much. It is all about payrolls today but we are watching what is ,oing on in paris because today for leaders are looking to broker a peace deal between russia and ukraine. We are speaking with Ryan Chilcote of bloomberg news, live in paris. You are very close. Merkel and the french president or all meeting. We hope they are all talking. Ryan they are all talking. It is called the normative group and it was put together during the dday celebrations last year , which were more about trying to find a way to solve the war in ukraine. Just beforeay and they began, the russian president also met separately with the german chancellor and president of france. Vonnie is it a little embarrassing that this is going ahead, even as syria is becoming a bigger and bigger problem with russian involvement . Ryan it is awkward. I think in a perfect world, neither the german leader or the french leader and certainly not the leader of ukraine would want to be here in paris right now with theg Ukraine Russian president at a time when they know they also need to hear from him on other issues. At least the germans and french do. The russian president sort of was able to dictate the agenda to a certain extent when he started bombing syria three days ago. Vonnie what will they be looking for out of todays meeting . Angela merkel and francois hollande, are they going to look to talk more about syria then ukraine at this point . The ukrainian president will be looking to make sure he is not forgotten, that ukraine is not forgotten. The german and french leaders will want to keep ukraine and so in theparate, fourway talks i ensure they will insist on only discussing ukraine. We do know that in the bilateral talks, they both intended to discuss syria as well. It will be a mixed or of the two. The two. Ure of vonnie Ryan Chilcote, we will return to you and a little bit. Watching out for those jobs numbers coming in about 20 minutes. We bring you those numbers at 8 30 eastern. Are watching on Bloomberg Television, listening on Bloomberg Radio. Morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television and radio worldwide. Minutes away from an important jobs report. First we need to go to our breaking news desk. Bill markets are higher by gains in france and italy. U. S. Futures are rising in sympathy. The yield at 2. 5 held the key to percent level yesterday. Unemployment rate estimate, 5. 1 . York andive, isn new 10 00, factory orders. A specialsets dividend of 4. 85 a share. Albertsons to offer 65 million shares. The casinow names in the u. S. Have pledged to support maccallum. Mccallum. Taxan stanley on the buyer bio techs. Raised to buyls with a price target of 50 and t. Rowe price cut a neutral versus by over at ubs. Im bill maloney. Tom on the bloomberg terminal, you can go to squawk go to hear more. Tom, we are here with as always jim glassman on jobs friday from j. P. Morgan chase, and alan krueger. While you were checking the latest box scores in boston, these two gentlemen were talking about what we know to be true about the job report, that whatever number we get today is not the real number. It gets heavily revised, particularly the month of august. Jim the month of august, the first estimate has been revised up by about 40 on average. August is a particular bias. That is one of the reasons we were downplaying the low number last month. They reported 173,000 gained. We were expecting that to be revised up. The initial estimates that you see often get revised. Difference, one of the wonderful things about jobless claims is that tends to be a pretty accurate indicator. It is pretty much always the final answer. Numbers we see initially can get revised so net revisions are as important as the headline numbers. Mike allen, how do policymakers deal with it, the uncertainty of the numbers that we talked about . You cannot make policy based on jobless claims alone. Alan and jobless claims do vary from week to week so is a good idea to look at the fourweek moving average. In general, what policy makers like to do is look at a wide number of indicators to paint a collage and not put too much emphasis on any particular statistic because we know there is a lot of noise in our measures of the economy. Also, to look over a longer period. I found it reassuring to look at job growth over a 12 month. As opposed to month and month. 2012, had done that in you would not be so concerned about the job growth. Krueger. Ok at alan im bringing it up right now. I have a 12 month number of 243,000. Jim glassman, is that 243,000 in 2006 . 243,000 it was jim this job growth is more broadbased. It is better jobs coming as the recovery matures. 240,000 was coming from what was going on in the energy field. There are aector, lot of projects that have shut down and that pace has slowed to about 212,000. That is pretty solid. That tells us we are still growing faster than our longterm trend, which is why the Unemployment Rate is coming down. People have this idea that the u. S. Economy has been awfully slow. Havecomes from what you seen in gdp growth, but when you look across the economy, if you look at all the different pieces and put it all together, car sales and 18 million, that is large. The underwater problem pretty much gone. Capital spending not that bad when it comes to gdp. When you a race from your mind the impression you get from gdp, Everything Else is looking kind of normal. We are probably not there yet fully, but that is what inflation and wage trends tell you, but the job market has been the first to tell you that the recovery was looking pretty good, steady, and solid. Alan if you look particularly at the private sector, the recovery looks stronger. One of the unusual things is that we have had u. S. Austerity. Decline in a Big Government spending, defense spending, nondefense discretionary spending. State and local governments cut back. Headwind, this recovery looks about as strong as the one we had in the previous decade. Alan krueger and jim glassman with us as we get ready for the jobs report this morning. It is cloudy and reining in new york, that these gentlemen bringing some sunshine to the view. We will see what the forecast is once we get the payroll numbers. They are due out and about six minutes. Payrolls, note jobs in manufacturing. That is something we will talk about when we come back. I just had a horrible nightmare. My companys entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. But that would never happen. Comcast business monitors my Companys Network 24 hours a day and calls and emails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. So i can rest easy. What. You dont have a desk bed . Dont be left in the dark. Get proactive alerts 24 7. Comcast business. Built for business. Vonnie this is bloomberg surveillance. I am vonnie quinn. We are moments away from getting the september jobs report. The economy probably added 201,000 last month and the strength of the labor market will help determine when the fed raises Interest Rate. There are reports the shooter at the Oregon Community college targeted christians. One witness said the gun man was asking students if they were christian. Those who said yes shot in the head. At least nine people were killed before Police Killed the gunman in a shootout. Hurricane joaquin may bypass the u. S. Altogether. It has been pounding the bahamas. Center,onal hurricane models indicate it will move north over the atlantic and stay off the east coast. Several models still predict it will turn toward the coastline. Up. Ave s p futures 111. 59o is trading at with the dollar index up about 1 10 of 1 . Mike welcome back to bloomberg surveillance. It is time for the september payrolls number, the forecast 5 Unemployment Rate. Phil mattingly is at the labor department. hil the Unemployment Rate stays at 5. 1 . The numbers across the board missing all around. To revisions to august revised down from 173,000 to 136,000. July was revised to 245,000. Down 59,000. The Labor Participation rate dropped to 62. 4 . The lowest since september of 1977. Werege Hourly Earnings expected to take up, dropped by one cent month over month year over your. Industry through industry, Health Care Numbers of 34,000. Mining was a bad number, down 10,000. Up 24,000. Trade professional services of 31,000. Construction and manufacturing, no real change. T was a big miss it was the revisions more than anything else, revised down august and july by 59,000 jobs. Positive ip of across the board, whether its the topline number, the Labor Participation rate or the average Hourly Earnings come all big misses. Mike Phil Mattingly at the labor department. A shock in the markets are reacting to the 10 year. Ote falling below 2 the twoyear has dropped all the to. 56. Nasdaq off 31 points. The screen can barely keep up. An enormous amount of Trading Volume right now. Expect inat you would this kind of situation when the markets are so disappointed. , im sure they did not see this coming. They certainly are in the right place with their lack of movement in september. Jim the real issue for the fed, keep in mind here that this is disappointing, but as long as job growth is in excess of 75,00095,000 month, that is in excess of our trend. We will have to get used to this notion later. Theres no reason that that has to do anything now. The compelling reason is the funds rate is at zero. If they want to move policy in an orderly, gradual way, small steps, you need to be willing to start this process. What do you think the economy will be looking like over the next several years . Not in one month. Where are we going. This trend is a little slower the people had thought but the job market is still recovering. Is zero compelling case is not the right answer. One or two Percentage Points above inflation is the right answer. The slower they can do it, the more orderly it will be. I just put out on twitter, the chart for Labor Participation in america. To 1977. Is there a policy prescription to improve the number of bodies in the labor force . Yes. We can make work more flexible. If we look at why Labor Force Participation has been declining , its primarily because we are getting older. Its a leftover effect of the recession. , what fueledtly the rise in Labor Force Participation in the u. S. Was increasing participation by women. When we compare us to europe, europe has continued to see Labor Force Participation rise by women. We see it going down. Maternity leave policy, sick leave policy, more flexible workpla