Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160311 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets March 11, 2016

Close of trading for the day and we could lets go to the markets desk and check in with our own julie hyman. It is a real rally. We were talking about this delayed reaction to the ecb. Mario draghi said there would be no Interest Rate cuts and investors were confused. They seem to result of confusion today. Europe and thein u. S. Rallying through the session and hovering near the highs. It has not been a supervolatile session. We see a steady uptrend here. Stocks are continuing their winning streak. Fourth week in a row we see stocks higher. You see the s p 500 on a oneweek basis. Three quarters of 1 is enough to continue the street. One investor were hearing from his someone who is already bullish on the stock. He has the highest target of the strategists we survey for the s p for the yearend. One of the things he is looking at, if you take a look at bloomberg, is highyield. This is the bank of Americamerrill Lynch u. S. Highyield index in white. S p 500 total return index in blue. What he condenses the prior four contends is the prior four or five what he contends is the prior 45 times, stocks of rally. A week year for higher yields last year he thinks that is one of the positive signals this year. Again, he is quite bullish already and there is a lot of debate about where stocks are going to go this year. Carol speaking of bullish come what is leading the way today . Julie once again, Energy Stocks are doing the best in percentage terms and financials, neck and at this point. They have been getting steadily on the idea that it will be positive for the Financial Sector in particular. Bond yields going higher. That is tended to be positive for financials as well. Pretty broadbased rally with the exception of the defensive group, utilities, and consumer staples. On the energy front there are these stocks we have been watching closely that are relatively heavily shorted. Devon on the rise today, southwestern, we have seen some gains. You can see the oil is up 1. 7 today. Looking at other assets i want to mention, gold is trading lower to the euro is lower today. This would be a more logical reaction to all of that stimulus. The 10year yield going up to 1. 98 . Carol bureaucarol catching up with what the ecb did yesterday. Thank you so much, julie hyman. Lets get a check of the headlines. Mark crumpton has more from the new stuff. Mark mourners are remembering nancy reagan has a transformative first lady, fierce protector of the late president s legacy and a woman who loved her husband beyond measure. Livere looking at a picture from the reagan president ial library in simi valley, california. Jr. Reagans son ron, among those giving eulogies. The former first lady died last weekend at age 94. She is being praised for how she dealt with the long goodbye, how she became the major taker to president reagan during a 10year battle with baltimores disease that claimed his life. Mrs. Reagan will be alzheimers disease that claimed his life. Mrs. Reagan will be buried alongside her husband later today. Marco rubio is telling supporters in ohio that the best way to beat donald trump is to vote for Ohio Governor john kasich. Senator Rubio John Kasich has a better chance of winning ohio than i do and if that gives us the best chance of stopping donald trump, that is what they will do. Kasichs spokesperson says that he will win ohio without senator rubios help justice he will lose florida without our help. Enda kenny lost a bit in parliament for a new term, throwing island into political limbo. Still, no rival is likely to gain a majority so kenny is still favored to eventually be reelected. Apple is looking for a oneweek delay in filing its response to the u. S. Justice department stemming from a brooklyn case dealing with unlocking a drug dealers iphone. The company says the countrys serial case in california introversial case california should be argued before apple files the brief in brooklyn. The california case is scheduled to be argued three. Apple says there should be a full airing of the related issues. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalist in more than 100 news bureaus around the world. I am Mark Crumpton. Carol, back to you. Carol the concerns that while Global Markets at the beginning of year are starting to wane. Points out,guest china is now communicating its foreignexchange policy more clearly and you have oil prices stabilizing. Tony crescenzi is a Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager at pimco and he joins us from newport beach, california. Hey, tony, good to have you here. You feel like things are starting to come down and make more sense. Tony you listed the trifecta of positive news on very big macro factors. China communicating better its policies, meaning on the foreignexchange rate, many Market Participants didnt know the depths of the moves that wanted in terms of the , thisnexchange movement beat or even the direction. That has been communicated better of late particularly by the pboc. Jobless claims, for example, the lowest of the past 43 years, third lowest of the past 43 years. And the three points are all in the past year, suggesting strengthen the market best strength in the labor market. Suggesting strength in the labor market. It does seem that the recession talk was quite premature. Finally with oil, which royal markets in part because of the high inclusion of energy price names in the highyield indexes, etc. , it has stabilized, of course, with a big move them 26 a barrel to 38 now. Combine that with the evidence, further evidence, but ceasefire thehe global currency war, markets are feeling a lot better and this evidence comes from the ecb and its actions to give it away from Interest Rates towards credit easing. We may get more this next week on tuesday from the bank of japan, which might indicate perhaps a signal that further decrease in Interest Rates may not be in the offing. Finally, the fed, simply by not moving, with contribute to the idea that the global currency war, there is a ceasefire. Carol tony, got to ask you, because when you go back to last august when the volatility started, and then it started again back in january, is this just a brief respite, or do you really think everybodys getting their act together . Tony well, you are right. There are big issues that will certainly be with the world for ande a long time in the the Financial Markets will have to grapple with them. There remains a high amount of indebtedness. There is more debt in the world than there was before the financial crisis. Secondly, the world is not solved this aggregate demand problem. We dont see meaningful action to promote economic growth. Finally, there are still questioned marks despite the rally in markets in the last date over the efficacy of Central Banks. It is very important for investors to making prudence with respect to their portfolio construction to guard against these risks as they go forward, especially as we think about United States and during the eightyear of economic expansion in june. Prudence and portfolio construction in terms of security selection, credit analysis, is going to be very vital. This is my concern, and it sounds like it is yours, too you have these global central bankers doing what lawmakers should be doing in terms of policy action. At some point we will have to pay the piper. Does that happen this year, in your view . Think Central Banks will be able to keep the game going but as you said, they cannot in the end promote economic growth. Think of the interstate highway system in the United States, created in the 1950s by president eisenhower. Still with us today, of course. We are riding those roads carol crossing our fingers at times as we do so because it can be shaky. Tony it can be. There are numerous other examples, of course, where government has helped to promote economic growth. The Federal Reserve, European Central bank, bank of japan, cannot build a single road or bridge, etc. , etc. It goes up on that sort of infrastructure goes beyond that sort of infrastructure. There is a lot more wood to chop and policymakers start to get it as they realized Central Banks are exhausting their tools and hopefully in the next round of elections and globally there will be an effort to move in that direction. There is still a lot of question marks, of course, not about that. You guys have to put money to work and have to make decisions even and a world where there is a lot of big macro questions out there. What do you suggest to investors when you look at sovereign debt, corporate debt, high yields, which all of a sudden is coming back . Tony u. S. Treasury market yields wont be moving meaningfully but they will rise a little bit because we are expecting the Federal Reserve to implement at least one Interest Rate hike and probably 2, given the stability and financial conditions of late. Slight and awaits to portfolio duration should be warranted. Driesexpect the yields rise much. Consider the yield difference between the u. S. Treasury near 2 and the 10year german bund about 125 basis points, about as high as it gets. That will be a limiting force in terms of yield movement. That along with the secular issues that i mentioned earlier. You might want to consider trading the range, so to speak. We like highquality bonds and investmentgrade arena. We count the idea that you can achieve equitylike returns with one quarter to one third of interestrate volatility. Look to europe and even the bank capital, which ive gotten beaten up. There are numerous reasons for that. But there is movement back towards them and we think for good reason. We think certain banks in europe will be building the capital and making the higher yield instruments quite attractive. But consider them in terms of volatility like the highyield market in terms of movement, and with respect to highyield scum it has been priced for the id of recession, which we think as i said earlier, not much higher than normal, 1520 range. There is some value in that arena. Carol we have to leave it on that note. Good to get your thoughts. Tony crescenzi, Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager at info, joining us from newport beach, california. Joining us in the next 20 minutes of bloomberg markets, is it the next big trend in the crude business . Companies are building their own private ports and keeping the revenue from everything, from the zip lining to boat rentals. Willie fly with customers . And we have a trade involving Goldman Sachs pit shares in the bank have gained 2. 4 over the past two days. And as we had to break, a look at the s p financials in a this year. Down about 6 from well off its low. Financials trying to make their way back. Carol this is bloomberg markets. I am carol massar. Lets get a check on where the markets stand this hour, beginning with the s p 500. So the session near the highs of the session, 2019. Dow jones industrial average come up 203 points at this hour. And lets also get to the nasdaq. 1. 6 is the percentage gain. Nasdaq at 4736. Time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at the biggest Business Stores in his right now. Shares of greenberg partners are higher today after they announced a sales dan and fourthquarter profits that beat estimates. It is another bright spot for the chairman, whose Main Hedge Fund was up more than 3 this year through february after slumping 20 in 2015. Global sales falling a little more than 1 with volkswagen still being heard by the diesel emissions scandal. Sales were higher in europe but he was not enough to offset declines in europe, china offset the kinds in china, u. S. , and south america. A software, he has been testing Autonomous Vehicles on the streets of san francisco. The 40person firm was founded just three years ago. The Purchase Price not disclosed. That is your business flash update. Drinks, the tinny beat of the caribbean island steel drums you know what we are talking but could welcome to the island paradise brought you by Carnival Cruise ships. They are spending the time to buy their own private ports and islands in the caribbean and bahamas. You will not have to run any elbows or give any greenbacks to locals. Here with more is chris palmeri, who wrote this story. Tell me what is going on here. Spending in some cases hundreds of millions of dollars to build these private destinations. It is a good deal for them because they capture the lion share of the revenue from the alcohol sales, zip lines in some cases. And it gets a lot of customers what they want and a lot of people dont want to go exploring. Cargond up in a port with ships and beggars and crime in some cases. This gives them, as one executive told me, the caribbean that they imagine. I find it fascinating because it gives people isolated and the reason the carnivals and cruise lines were going into the areas is to help the local economy. Is there some of that as well . There is a head tax that the local governments get. Thehey are taking life and existing port, the local merchants and the restaurants and the retailers might get cut out. Carol i have seen the Carnival Cruise lines port. It is huge. Is this something customers want, chris . Chris yeah, building the largest one of these, private islands, 200 million. It is hard to believe they would be spending this kind of money of customers warrant checking off those comment cards saying, yes, this is what we want. Carol interesting. Talk to us about the amount of money being spent by these guys. Chris 85 million in the recent carnival one. There is an ecofriendly one that is going to have the ewing area and features focus on the wildlife. They are experimenting with different trends of what people want. A private beach with butler service, going really highend. There is a lot of activities to do once you go off the boat. About i asked you earlier the economic deals that these cruise lines have at these ports in order to build these and i assume they are helping at the local economy. Im curious what effect it is having an any kind of pushback they are getting from local economies, caribbean island economies. Chris carnival is trying to build one in the bahamas that would take passengers away from freeport, the current stop. Here is some pushback locally it is not like you are completely immune from the local troubles. In january while caribbean had to divert one of its ships from a private port in haiti because there were folks protesting a president ial election and small boats all around. You have to deal with the local troubles. Carol bottom line, though, this is in a trend that is going to change anytime soon. Chris no, the first one was in 1977 so this has been going on and will continue. Carol great read, thank you so much. Chris palmeri from our Los Angeles Bureau joining us there. Still ahead on bloomberg markets, people checking on the Options Market. Lets get a check on some of the top gainers in the trading session. Energy companies dominate the list and crude has moved up. Southwestern, anadarko, devon energy, some of your out performers. Carol this is bloomberg markets. I am carol massar. We are near the close of trading could stocks trying to extend their weekly winning streak of 4, which would be the longest since november. Julie hyman is standing by with how the Options Market is trading on all this action. Julie thank you, carol. Is scott bauer, senior Market Strategist at trading advantage come out in chicago. Scott, it has been this interesting day today, the delayed reaction to the ecb yesterday. What are you seeing in the Options Market that is giving you clues as to what happens next . For example, in terms of looking ahead to next weeks fed meeting, boj, etc. . Scott you know, it is very quiet, like you said, very, very quiet, and is delayed reaction from the ecb remarks kind of caught everybody off guard. In terms of option paper, there is not a lot that i am noticing one way or the other outside of seeing the vix trade under 17 again. You know, earlier this week we saw a couple rallies but the vix stayed elevated in the 17 and 18 handle. Finally back up under 17 again, which tells me that maybe the market is now expecting a continued grind higher here because any sort of continued grind higher and the vix will continue to go down. Going into a weekend and a big election next tuesday, a lot of primaries next tuesday, and we have the fed. A lot of complacency going on right now. Carol julie curious there. Guy x futures curve, is that indicating future complacency . Scott it really is. You look out 2 weeks, 4 weeks or so, theres not much there. The nearterm we will be fairly range bound with anything biased to the upside. Julie interesting. One of the groups that is doing quite well today is financials. As weve seen the rates go up, whether you are looking at the 10year in the u. S. , some of the rates of sovereigns over in europe, that has seemed to benefit the financials. Your trade todays on a financial stock as well. Not a bank per se, but Goldman Sachs kid you are not, however, as positive that a put spread you are putting on here. Why are you not looking for website . For more upside . Scott im quite the contrary and at least in the short run here. The stock has been making lower highs, lower lows, and is not rallied as much is it technically should have, given the last couple of days in the marketplace. It is up a few dollars today, 147. 5 areaea of the where it bounce off or so, i think we are reaching that probably early next week unless in thea monumental rally overall marketplace. But again, given the lower highs , lower lows, i am nearterm bearish. What im looking to do, julie, is by the put s

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