Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160322 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets March 22, 2016

When asked you to come into the bloomberg, not sure if i have a queue for this. If we can take a look at the imap, i will look at which groups are leading now that things are higher. Health care is leading the gains in the s p 500, techs number two as we do see the nasdaq gained in consumer staples. Gaming, if yous look at the next, the fear index, its now down very slightly, earlier today we were seeing again in the next. Below 14 there does not indicate a high level of concern as to whats going on globally in the markets. Likewise, if you look at the risk off trade, where are people looking for safety today, that trade has also diminished as the day has gone. Gettingces earlier we quite a boost. Now only up. 2 5 . The dollar has turned higher versus the japanese yen. We are seeing the 10 year yield come down, but its a tick from up a tick from where they were earlier. Alix how are things trading in the u. S. . Gains where we are seeing across the board and broad market, we not seeing that in travel stocks. They have come up off the lows of the session. If you looking at the airlines, delta air, other travel related stocks come Online Travel and marriott represent the hotels, were still seeing declines there. A couple of movers and wanted to mention, the offshore drillers, transocean saying in an interview it will be at least another three years before the company can charge more for offshore rigs. Somenly is it falling, but of the other Drilling Companies are declining as well. , wanted to mention sun edison the stock would mention a lot of his its quite volatile. Shares are down 13 today after debt wire reported the company is in possession negotiations with some of its creditors on 725 million of second lien loans. Its complicated and questionable as to what the applications are, but bottom line, there are questions about sun edisons liquidity, and this sort of brings at home. Scarlet julie hyman with the latest on the markets. Alix lets get the latest on brussels. We go to Mark Crumpton with more. Islamic state has reportedly claimed response ability for todays deadly terror bombings in brussels. At least 31 people were killed, more than 200 injured in three blasts. Chilcote is in brussels. Ryan let me give you and our viewers the lay of the land in the heart of brussels. Over my left shoulder, you can see the maelbeek subway station. 200 meters down the road between us and the subway station, you can see the road has been cordoned off. The road itself is closed. It is rush hour now, or should be rushhour here in brussels. Its 6 00 p. M. Local time. Normally this road before cars, now its been reserved for search and rescue, for emergency vehicles, and for police cars. They occasionally go rushing by. Over my right shoulder, you see , parte of the building of the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union. It is the place where finance ministers and economy ministers on the 28 eu countries gather pretty frequently. It just shows you how this was really a strike at the heart of the eu edit seat of government right here in brussels. Many of the people who would have been coming out of that subway station at 9 00 in the morning and when the tackle lace when the attack took place would have been coming right here to the European Commission. Its also worth noting that this there hasntere been much terrorism. Its the biggest terrorist attack ever that took place here in at the airport. Lots of terrorist threats, but to see Something Like this, at least 31 killed, is really unheard of in brussels. Chilcoteombergs ryan live. Reactions around the world today was swift. In cuba, president obama called for global unity. We will dot obama whatever is necessary to support our friend and ally belgium in those whoo justice were responsible. This is just another reminder that the world must unite. We must be together. Regardless of nationality or race or faith. In fighting against the scourge of terrorism. We can and we will defeat those who threaten the safety and security of people all around the world. Primein london, british minister David Cameron says his government has offered his support to belgium, he also made his made a call for solidarity. Cameron these are appalling and savage terror attacks. My just spoke to the Prime Minister of belgium, asking them to give our condolences to the belgian people. We absolutely stand with them at this very difficult time. These were attacks in belgium, they could be attacks in britain or in france or germany or elsewhere. We need to stand together against these appalling terrorists and make sure they can never win. Mark also speaking out today, pope francis. The pontiff says he condemns the blind violence that breed so implores theg and gift of peace from god. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Im Mark Crumpton. Scarlet investors were jolted by the explosions in brussels, were not seeing a huge flights. Alix joining us is samantha azzarello, a Global Market strategist at j. P. Morgan. What does the same of the sustainability of the rally that we are not seeing a huge risk off today . I thought that condolences go out to the people of europe, more broadly. We havent seen a reaction in the markets today, its pulled back. I think it speaks to the fact that there is a disconnect between economies and equity markets. This will likely affect the way that belgians live their lives daytoday for a while. We could see that in some economic data. It is going to necessarily come in a market impact. Scarlet but it will affect the way the governments spend money and how the European Central banks respond to whatever slowdown there might be in the months ahead. Talk about a central bank responsible government response. Samantha we think centralbank responses are in a maximum at this point, theres not too much more they can do. Thatof our view on that is if you look at the amount of stimulus and how low rates have gone, its really to support growth in theory. Isnt complete the negative around the globe. There only three countries globally that are in recession. So really whats going on as you have trend growth, growth is currently below trend for a lot of these countries. Central banks cant fix that, no matter how much stimulus they implement. Alix taking a look at the impact in the markets. If you take a look at the bloomberg, this is the s p versus the moving averages, libby close this out here. Its how extended the s p is about that longerterm trend line. How much more do you see things lifting the rally . Samantha we are tying it to the odds of u. S. Recession. U. S. Recession as the magnet for the rest of the world and for risky assets. Our view is predicated on the fact we do not think we are going to fall into a recession this year. For that reason, we think the s p 500 and risk assets more broadly have more room to run. Scarlet i like what you said with a disconnect between the economy and stocks. You see that in japan as well. Alix if you go inside a bloomberg, we charted how the yen has been strengthening, and that has caused jpmorgans currency strategists based in tokyo to revise their forecast by yearend 2103 from 110. When the yen was last at 103, the yellow arrow, the nikkei was 6000 points lower than where it is right now. That was also 10 drop from the current levels. Samantha the japanese equity markets have been moving from macro factors. We were seeing red japan. If the end depreciated, you would get and market appreciation. That theory is moving by the wayside now. You get more granular and you look at sectors, if you look at health care in japan, commercial durables,consumer probability is up and they are paying more cash to shareholders. They are more friendly with respect to corporate governance, which i think is very exciting. Alix how much of that is based on buyback of the dividend trade, which is so prevalent here in the u. S. . Its thesamantha vivax, its using yen depreciation gentleman pricing strategies in a way that i dont think japanese countries have ever done before. On ormeaning that pass it read it in their margins . Is givingyen weakness them a buffer with respecter earnings to the nobleman pricing strategies to be more competitive and gain market share. We are seeing them food processing, interestingly enough. Thanks, samantha azzarello, Global Markets strategist at j. P. Morgan asset management. Thank for joining us. Scarlet coming up on bloomberg markets, we bring you the latest from brussels after this mornings deadly terror attacks. Alix welcome back to bloomberg markets. Scarlet we are following the latest out of a brussels and keep an eye on the Global Financial markets, which remain resilient in the face of todays deadly attacks. Lets head over now for our metals bulletin, we check in with julie hyman at the markets desk who has a couple numbers to give us uptodate on. Julie weve been talking about the safety trade, which was more effective earlier today. Its awesome buying of gold and other metals. At this point, that is true to some extent. Gold is still higher, but not by as much. Silver has turned lower and platinum is up about 1. 5 . Mixed trade when it comes to the metals. Silver, however, wanted to focus in on that year to date. It is up year to date, just as we have seen many of the other metals rallied. Its interesting, because its rally started earlier than say some of the other commodities like oil. Its up about 14 for the year to date. If you take a look at etf holdings of silver, we have seen a spike there as well. Charts, we one your saw a decline in the second half of last year. Now it has like backup to the level where it was in summer of last year as weve seen more folks come back into silver and back into precious metals. The performance of some of the biggest silver miners, particularly particular the three largest north American Silver miners, but market cap, heres their yeartodate performance. Also quite impressive. In general, weve seen the miners rise more than the underlying metal. Of course, they have fallen in many cases more than the underlying metal going into the performances this year. If you take a look at the ounce of silver per ounce of gold, thats one of the things that we have been watching. And scarletalix going to talk about that momentarily. Weve seen that climb as well, its off now just lately. It is still near its highest since 2008. Scarlet thank you julie hyman. For more on the gold silver ratio, i want to bring and ken hoffman, who joins us now in skillman, new jersey. What does the gold silver ratio . Ell you why its important ken if you want to trade using the gold silver ratio, i guarantee you will lose money. It doesnt tell you anything at all about one is not a versus the other. If you want to know that industry demand trends, the ratio is very good. If the ratio is telling you that demand for gold relative to silver has been much greater, why . Look at china. Chinese imports of gold since 2010 are up more than 1000 . Areese imports of silver down by more than 50 . They are almost down two thirds. If the ratio is telling you that the demand for gold in the world is much greater, relative to demand for silver, and honestly come outside of the calls i get from the u. S. , i very rarely get a call from asia or europe about silver. They only care about gold, the u. S. Is where silver demand really comes from. Alix scarlet, you should not of chosen mark bartletts charge. It doesnt tell you anything. Tellet he said it doesnt you where the price is going, it tells you something about demand. Alix part of the reason is that silver is an industrial metal. We tend to lose sight is that gets dragged up with gold as a safe haven trade. How was the Industrial Outlook shaping up for silver . Silver is that some issues with industrial demand. Photo hotel excels has been down by 50 . Even though solar cells are increasing, the amount of silver in a, which was a huge driver for number of years has fallen off a cliff. ,hats been one of the issues you see that in dentistry. Silver as industrial demand has fallen back to the etf and the investment demand. And while that has picked up, that is a positive, it hasnt been tremendous just yet. Alix we had a chart up looking at the other part of the equation, the supply area. Looking at what silver supply has done over the last year, it looks to be falling. Scarlet maybe one of the few commodities where there isnt a glut at record highs run out. Ken hoffman, when it comes to silver, talk about the demand for this middle from places like china. Hasnt been very good. Going back to your first chart, supply is going to be a big positive for silver and gold. Right now, weve seen is silver is mainly mindless link mine. With zinc no one is investing in silver or zinc mines. Youll probably see silver production declines in the next decade. Thats a Huge Positive for silver, you will see the same for gold. Eventually go to the other metals. You just order to cut back their x managers. Silver,ook a zinc, gold, those numbers of been down for for five years. They fired all their production staff, theyre all gone. Thats going to take a long time for that to restart, and so the connection will continue to drop. Scarlet oil is getting hit now, gold was in it three years ago. Ken hoffman a bloomberg intelligence, inc. You for joining us from skillman, new jersey. Still ahead on bloomberg markets, we continue to follow the latest news on the belgian terror attacks. There is new images of the u. S. Reaction to the news. Resident Obama National security adviser susan rice on the phone with Homeland Security. More after the break. Scarlet this is bloomberg markets, im scarlet fu. Alix im alix steel. Update you on the situation in brussels. The Brussels Airport will be closed tomorrow, march 23. He will be evaluating and deciding if the airport will resume operations on thursday. Here in the United States, we have learned that security will also be tightened at airports, real stations, as well as ports in the u. S. , all in response to the deadly bombings in brussels. The u. S. Department of Homeland Security will be making an announcement later on tuesday. We spoke to bloomberg on those plans. Eu leaders have responded to the tax, they vowed to respond with all the story means. Pretty much showing a united front within that block in response. Angela merkel of germany says her cabinet will discuss efforts to stem terror on wednesday. Sadness,voiced deep matteo renzi of italy says Intelligence Services need to Work Together and he is offered italys help is needed. Francois hollande has called on all of europe to pledge their support, and pledges a safe environment. Alix Credit Card Debt is booming, Economic Confidence is falling. You have more debt, and you dont feel that great about the economy. Spoke with peter atwater, president of financial insights. He studied how changes in confidence impact are investing decisions, and spoke about how falling Consumer Confidence correlates with the rise of donald trump. I like to see consumer borrowing increasing as Consumer Confidence is rising. What you are seeing is, you have stagnant retail sales, youve got Consumer Confidence falling, and suddenly, credit card borrowings are spiking amidst really low gas prices. So the consumer is hitting their highest cost for looked at in an extraordinary volume for apparently no reason. That says to me the consumer is in a much more precarious condition that i think people expected. Express their outrage by voting for donald trump . Express their outrage come if you start to look at it by breaking it into its segments, looking at republicans, the average republicans level of fidence today is the say the same as it was the weekend Lehman Brothers collapsed. Thats the blue line. That is an incredible statement on seven years of chronic under confidence. And that level is not modest, thats a really distressed, depressed kind of confidence level. I think thats what you are seeing manifesting in the appeal for trump. We also see the white line which tracks democrats confidence, thats an rising steadily. Look at overall how rising confidence would tend to benefit Hillary Clinton rather than a donald trump. Yes. As confidence rises, we are naturally drawn to centrist candidates. We look for compromise. We look for agreement. This is a chart that showed that. Economic confidence goes up, and how sensitive you can really be. Arent things pretty good . Retail sales are holding up, lower gas prices, wages are going up, jobs are improving. The data saying there are two americas out there. A general view where things are doing well, but a large segment of the consumer economy that is quite distressed right now. Atwater. T was peter today at 4 00 p. M. , we continue our coverage on the terror attacks in brussels with eurasia groups, and will the attacks undermine eu solidarity . Scarlet its time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. Todays scheduled showdown in court between the fbi and apple has been called off. The federal government says it may be able to unlock the iphone of one of the San Bernardino shooters without apples help. The u. S. Wants to test a possible method for accessing data on the device. Apple has opposed efforts to force it to undercut the iphone security features. Chinese Distribution Partners or whole role is in talks for an undisclosed amount. There the danish maker of Luxury Consumer electronics. Roll cells rollsroyce is and luxury watches. It trades at half the market value. Housinge federal finance agency says januarys numbers were up. 5 , matching estimates. Prices were up 6 year to date. Thats the Bloomberg Business

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