Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160707 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets July 7, 2016

We are one hour from the close of trading, and lets head to the markets desk. We have seen a midday reversal today, and stocks not able to gain much traction. Shery we are still in the red, not able to turn into the green right now. We are seeing that investors are just looking ahead to the jobs report, the very important monthly report coming out tomorrow for us. We have the dow jones down 0. 5 . The nasdaq unchanged at the moment. The s p 500 down 0. 4 . If you take a look at the imap function on the bloomberg, you can see that all factors on the sectors on the s p 500 are in the negative. Utilities leading the decline, down 1. 9 . Financials reversing yesterdays gains, falling about 0. 5 . We are seeing financials now are at their lowest level since june 28, and of Course Energy following today, as we see crude trade around 45 a barrel right now, reversing previous gains. If you look at the s p 500, the intraday chart right their, you can right there, you can see we saw this reversal after Government Data showing we had more crude stockpiles than initially expected, or that they declined less than expected. We saw this reversal on the s p 500 around 10 00 in the morning, and then we had been trending down since then, down 0. 4 . Take a look at what oil is doing now, because we are hearing from the Energy Information administration that crude stockpiles declined 2. 2 million barrels, when analysts expected a fall of 2. 5 million, so that report was out, crude slumping nearly 5 there. Saysommodity Merchant Fund the best is probably over for commodities, as we see the brexit vote adding to global risk. They say oil will retreat further. We have seen copper falling also, and natural gas falling. Take a look at some of the decline is today, along with oil. Exxon mobil down 1. 8 , followed the most since the immediate aftermath of the brexit the. Down 2. 8 for chevron, 2 . T ad news that ni nigerian militants attacked a pipeline. Down the lowest since february. Ofnie lets you to check the first word headlines. Fbi the director of the defended himself today. James comey appeared before a committee, answering questions about the bureaus decision not to press charges against Hillary Clinton for violating email protocols during her tenure as secretary of state. At the end of the day, people can disagree, they can agree, but they will at least understand the decision was made and the recommendeation was made by people who did not give a hoot about politics, but cared what are the facts, what is the law, and how have all people been treated in the past . Ramy Jason Chaffetz told comey he is mystified by the decision. President obama said hes recent deeply troubled by the recent fatal shootings of two black men by police. He said the shootings are not isolated incidents and says we have seen such tragedies too many times, and our hearts go out to the families and communities that suffered such a painful loss. The National Insurance bureau in canada says damage from alberta ost 3res could c billion, the most expensive disaster for insurers in the countrys history. The wildfires forced evacuation of 90,000 residents and destroyed 2400 buildings. The blaze was just downgraded to under control on monday. As many as 50 pregnant women in puerto rico are becoming infected with the zika virus everything will day, according to the centers for disease control. The u. S. Is considering asking the island to consider aerial spraying. Monitoringalready 320 pregnant women in the country who have contracted zika. Scheduled commercial service to havana, cuba from 10 u. S. Cities won tentative approval today. Transportation secretary anthony foxx says service will begin later this fall. It has been more than 50 years since the last scheduled service by air from the United States to cuba. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists,s and analysts in 120 countries. I am ramy inocencio. This is bloomberg. Vonnie lets get back to markets. A mixed day for stocks. Investors are waiting to see how tomorrows jobs report stacks up with disappointing numbers. Our next guest says they might a market for optimism, strategist at cecil. Break it down for us. The consensus is 180, and we have been hearing anywhere from 160 to 200. Kevin 150,000 to 200,000 would be reasonable given what we have seen in the data. But more broadly we look at a pickup in a variety of data points. Not so much the jobs numbers, but if you look at the data, we saw some firming from the really weak Fourth Quarter and first quarter. We are far from a robust economy. We think maybe 150,000 jobs would be what we expect. Julie and is that enough to get stocks the leg up . In it has been remarkable, terms of the trajectory of stocks this year, in terms of the health of the economy for the balance of the year. So where do you stand on, say, stocks, and where we will see them go in the second half . Kevin the stock market is fairly valued. Thats one of the challenges we have right now. Earnings, we will probably see weak earnings numbers this quarter, and i think it will be four or five quarters in a row we have seen declining earnings, which is driving stock prices. Beyond that, the economy is growing, which is the good news, and here in the United States it is better than many places around the world and has been a bit of a safe haven, which is all helping equities. Beyond that, we are missing stronger growth, in the domestic economy. Vonnie what makes you say equities are fairly valued . You late that out as unquestionable laid that out as unquestionable. Some people would disagree with you. Kevin if you go and look at were equities are by market cap, its at a premium to gdp. Thats one way to look at it. And you would expect that to be overvalued. The thing that makes it so unusual,w e have we have so much of these alternative assets, bonds, for example, with negative yields, and the world of valuations has become skewed because the bond yields are really the central price for all assets, and when you have such unusual things happening, like negative yields in the bond market, it is hard to put a fine point on what fair value is. Julie is there any number tomorrow that would dramatically change your outlook . Yes, its just one report, but so was the last one, and it seemed to change the feds view. Is there anything outlying that would shake you up . That 100,000 to 150,000, divergence would be something that is statistically significant. We get very excited about the big number every month, but the reality is, it does get revised. Unless we see something, say, 100,000, 150,000 off the mark, you should move right by it and just blended into the average. But lets say you had a zero job growth. That would obviously be something that would have us pause. Vonnie did the month of june you saw the s p 500 returned 1. 3 , and treasuries returned 2. 2 . Where would you go, if you are looking for something this summer . Kevin we are still underweight on equities in our Asset Allocation models. On the bonsai, we like our yields bond side, we like high yields. We are getting incremental return by owning high yields. On the equity side, we tend to favor growth overvalue. Within the entire complex, we like dollarbased assets, because we think the real rates here are rising, the growth here is better, and that is helping relative to the world. Nds. Assets, high yield, a growth overvalue is where we would position a portfolio. There has been some talk earlier this year about a bubble in highyield, that valuations would become stressed, that if there is economic weakness they would be risk of defaults. Is that still in effect here, or has that dissipated, as they look more attractive relative to other assets . Kevin were back to almost the same problem we had with equities, because you have treasury yields that are very, very low, so the spreads versus treasuries are attractive. When we think about where the bubbles are, we are a bit more concerned about the treasury price than the highyield. And if you look at just the price returns for treasuries, there are a bunch of services that offer that, and you are at levels you have never seen before. So that is a bit more of a concern. Make things more difficult. Vonnie how closely were you watchingtifel yesterday when the funds in britain stopped people from taking out money . Is that something you are worried about . Kevin sure. One of the things we include in our surveillance of data is stress in the financial system, which manifests itself in all kinds of ways. When you have uncertainty like the brexit, you expect things to pop up that would be a little out of the ordinary. So liquidity issues which show up. That would be a form of a liquidity issue. So it does come into the research we do, and some of the analysis. Vonnie but not overly concerned . Kevin it is just one. It manifests itself in a broader array of those things, it would be something that would impact our outlook more significantly. But at this point, its not terribly concerning, but we would look at that and see the spreads and other things, and if it got much worse, we would change your outlook our outlook. Vonnie kevin, thank you so much. Still ahead, our coverage at of sun valley continues. Liberty media chairman john malone tells Bloomberg Viacom stock is undervalued. Fighto weighed in on the over the companys future. Julie this is bloomberg markets. I am julie hyman. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn. Time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. American airlines will be the first u. S. Carrier to offer a premium economy cabin with more legroom. Delta plans for a similar product. U. S. Carriers are trying to catch up to foreigners, who already offer enhanced service. Julie boeing says it is testing new nonstick aircraft coaching, paint designed to make ice slide harmlessly off a planes wing. Dangerous buildup can make plains hard to control planes hard to control. Mcdonalds has selected bidders in china for what could be a 2 billion deal. According to people familiar with the matter, mcdonalds is selling twentyyear franchise rights in china and hong kong. Most Mcdonalds Restaurants in china are companyowned, and the chain eventually wants almost all restaurants there to be under local ownership. That is your Bloomberg Business flash update. Julie media heavyweight john malone has been piling up acquisitions of late. Last week, Lions Gate Entertainment agreed to buy starz. At the sun valley conference, he gave his take on the state of media m a and the u. K. Referendum. Theres always m a opportunities. There are nine Different Companies im involved in, and they are always looking for opportunities. Still lots of free radicals out there to consolidate . There are. Not always big ones. What is your view on europe, given supposedly the cheaper assets there . Is this something you would do, or some thing you would be put off by . Cheap is a relative term, right . So, i think it depends on your longerterm view, i think. I think britain is going to be fine. I think the eu is going to be fine. I think there will be some banking capitalization issues that have to be dealt with. And potential monumental shakeups, with fire, cbs viacom, cbs, the Sumner Redstone drama. I hope it all settles down, and everyone is treated fairly. Sumner has been a longterm friend and sometimes partner, sometimes frenemy, and you hate to see distress in a family situation. So i certainly hope it all works out for everybodys benefit. You know. Would you be interested in they created some great assets over the years, and they are a very important part of our industry. Would you be interested in buying the paramount stake, for example . Would i . The theatrical side . No, that would not be where i would go, if it was my decision. They have some great assets. Right at the moment, because of the turmoil, they are substantially undervalued. Viacom . Viacom, yet. I think they will straighten out. If you were a betting man, would you expect a combination of cbs and viacom . Well, les moonves would do a terrific job, if they wanted to go that way, in my opinion. Hes an excellent operator. Sh i have no idea what, what erri has in mind as a strategic direction. I have no idea what kind of estate tax problems they would ultimately face, and what they have to do to satisfy those. So i am sure, its a complicated process. Just to clarify, earlier when you were talking about europe, talking about itv. Is the u. K. An interesting place to spend money . Would you buy at the rest of itv . I personally think the u. K. Will be increasingly interesting for foreign capital. Theuess would be that cheaper pound, combined with a more probusiness government, personally a substantial investor in ireland, and i worry the u. K. Will start competing with ireland as the most businessfriendly player. But, in all seriousness, i think the u. K. Is going to be fine. I think the reaction has been way overblown, and i think this will create Investment Opportunities in the u. K. I think theres also a fair chance that they work out their eu issues and ultimately, if they dont exit entirely, they may have some kind of a special relationship, you know . Rational people will ultimately figure this out. Julie that was john malone of liberty media, from the sun valley allen and company conference. Vonnie more from sun valley ahead. Ceoill see whether iacs agrees with barry diller that the industry has too few actual decisionmakers. Stick around. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Julie time now for options inside with shery. Shery joining me for todays options insight is scott bauer, Senior Market strategist at creating advantage, joining me from the cboe in chicago. Thank you so much for talking to us. After the brexit vote, it has been all about Political Risk in europe. Now,ound plunging right falling for a Third Session after a brief rally. How are you playing this . Scott like you just said. Its really plunging right now, but is it plunging more on political rhetoric, like you talked about, or just because there really is Something Else there we need to look at . Im looking at this area here of 1. 26 in the fxb, the british pound etf, almost a no mans land, marooned on an island somewhere. You can look, there are some really good upside reward to risk option plays. Im looking to august options, and if i look out there, the option market is pricing about a six dollars to seven dollar move in fxb, which could be to the downside as well, but the reward to risk on the upside right now is fantastic, so im looking to buy some upside call spreads, perhaps even the 1. 29, 1. 33 call spread, four dollars wide going out to august expiration. I can do that for about a dollar, maybe even less than that, and my reward to risk, i can only lose a dollar, so if the british pound is not rally, if fxb does not rally, i know my maximum loss. But if we get the movie option market is expecting, and if it is to the upside, this will go to about 1. 33, and my maximum gain is four dollars. Fxby we are seeing the plunge, and we have not seen it at these levels in a very long time, i think its 2006, so are you saying we are bottoming out now . Scott what im saying here is, like i said, its kind of in a no mans land, but after the quick and violent moves we saw, both to the upside and downside, after the sharp highvolume we saw, im seeing a lot of consolidation here. And seeing a base. Maybe the trade is a little lower than here, but the technicals are telling me from what im seeing right now, in the way the trade is going, that there is a bottom, perhaps, forming right here. Nitrate is all based on the reward to risk, and it seems like the whole world is taking the short side of the pound, the short side of fxb, and thats why the reward to risk is so great to the upside. Thats what im going to do. Goldman andhery Deutsche Bank and citigroup are calling for sterling to sink another 11 . Your call on the currency . Scott im not going to discount what they are saying. My trade is not necessarily a, where is this going to be nine months from now, three months from now. This is strictly an opportunistic option play of where this could go in the next four to six weeks. So, do i say goldman and Deutsche Bank, are they wrong, that this thing could go down to 1. 10 . No. But the opportunity is there to make a very nice trade to the upside in the very short run here. Shery thanks so much for talking to us here. Rkett bauer, senior ma strategist from trading advantage at the cboe. Vonnie still ahead, we are counting to down to the close of trading in the u. S. Julie we have a mixed picture with the major averages. The nasdaq is gaining ground, along with technology more broadly today. The dow and the s p are still under pressure. Utilities are really taking a tumble here. They have been out performers, down 2 in todays session. Vonnie telecoms as wellvonnie . More from sun valley. Us joey 11 joins levin joins us with his take on media. Willie will be at th have jobs data tomorrow. This is bloomberg. Julie two . C sv worldfrom bloombergs headquarters in midtown manhattan, you are watching bloomberg markets. I am matt miller. Joe and i am joe weisenthal. Matt lets start with a check of the headlines. Ramy inocencio is there. Ramy we go to capitol hill, and james comey is facing criticism from republicans regarding his criminalnot to pursue charges against Hillary Clinton. To applycolby we try the same standard whether you are rich or poor, white or black, old or young, famous, or not known at all. I hope folks would take some time to understand the other cases. I understand reasonable people have questions. At the start of the hearing, Jason Chaffetz said he was mystified by the decision and also expressed concern that comey was creating a double standard. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is set to endorse Hillary Clinton on tuesday at a Campaign Event in new hampshire. Alders tells bloombergs hunt that donald trump is a pathological liar and he plans to throw his full support behind electing clinton president. President obama is o

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