Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160713 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets July 13, 2016

That stand out to me are that tossures were modest moderate, basically that there was no movement in selling prices. Reallyation has been modest. Inflation pressures have been very modest. We have full employment, and this is really taking time for wage pressures to start building, which should be a game changer this year because as people see labor shortages and wage pressure should build for more and more u. S. Workers. David i remember the last time deja vu came out, words of the day were modest and modestly. We are seeing that again in this report. Absolutely. That is positive because would bring some comfort to the fed, to the fomc that Growth Continues despite some headwinds from the bull market and some gyrations in Foreign Exchange markets. Domestic growth is key for the u. S. Economy. The fed relies on the consumer the continued recovery, and we should see more of the same in the next fed beige book. David when you look at the beige book, what is the first thing you will be looking for . I think consumption because it is really key or the fomc. His year consumer and residential investment really matters. There will be headwind in terms of the strong dollar. There are some pockets of weakness in the manufacturing sector, but overall, the economy should be ok. David thank you. We will go now to julie at the markets desk. Julie lets look first at the bond market. I want to look at the 30year because we have what has been deemed a successful 30year. Uction today the 30year yield pushing lower by 4 basis points. There was not much reaction or deviation from that direction when these comments came out from the beige book. I do want to mention that that auction had a record low yield for a 30year auction. That is one measure of the demand we saw for the auction. Lets look at the 10year as well in the action we are seeing as well. After that gain of yields we had seen, we see this pullback, also in 4basispoint decline, and we saw an acceleration of that decline to some degree after the results of that 30year auction. Course, the prospective is both of these are a look at the bloomberg. This is a simple chart of the. Ield you see the slump we have seen, and even though there has been a pop in yields over the last week or so, they are still near record low levels for both of those. The wake of the beige book and generally the action we have seen today, it has not in much changed. A little bit of a pullback after the record close from the dow and s p yesterday. The nasdaq, which peaked in the green for the year looks like it is back below that level once again, the dow off by about a point on the day, and if you look at the groups on the move within the s p 500, we got energy that is really the big drag here. You see a mixed picture, but energy is the biggest drag. Oil prices have slumped in the wake of todays inventories report. Keeping things afloat, telecom, consumer staples, utilities back on top. More details of what is going on with oil and commodities at 2 30 when they close. David formal reaction on the beige book, i want to bring in the number two forecaster of the u. S. Economy. You are processing all of this as we are, sort of in real time. Looking for indications of consumption figures, what are you looking or . I usually look at the first line first. David why . Probably at the top, there is a little bit of supervision. The first line says continue to expand at a modest pace, which is similar to last time. Not a whole lot different. From that perspective, it is basically more of the same. From there, look for what they are saying about employment, real estate, manufacturing, consumer spending. Overall, i am not sensing a big change, although, frankly, its always limited how much information you can get from the beige book. Vonnie and it was all done by july 1. Some saying manufacturing. Ctivity was mixed real estate activity continued to strengthen. Is that good, then . He is. This is part of the first paragraph, Manufacturing Activity was mixed, but generally improved. If you look at the survey, which is more reliable than the beige book because it is a hard number and based on actual data rather than anecdotes, manufacturing is an index. While it is still pretty low at 53 or so, it has moved up in the last couple of months, and again, consistent with some improvement, so there has been positive improvement. David i know we have a fiveyear chart of unemployment in the u. S. We have seen that diminishment. Do you think the fed is satisfied with where that rate is now . You listen to them and they say they have just about accomplished full employment. If you take the numbers literally, we are at a 4. 9 Unemployment Rate. Longer run normal level, which is basically their way of saying full employment is 4. 8 , although they will follow that with a caveat that involuntary parttime employment is on the high side. Maybe some of the decline in the Participation Rate is cyclical as opposed to secular, but they are almost there. If it is not quite there, youre pretty close, and the net is the fed does not want to see the Unemployment Rate fall much more than a couple of tenths from where we are right now. Assessmentt is your for the Federal Reserve toss next move . I certainly think the next move is up. I have been going in december. Certainly fed officials have extremely cautious, dovish, and really everything needs to line up almost perfectly for them to pull the trigger, for sure, so i do not have been going until december, but after the employment report last week, the fact that jobless claims are showing no sign of an uptrend, the fact the equity market is up to a record high more than reversing the brexitrelated losses, i think september is certainly back in the discussion as a possibility. They will not go in july for sure, but we will see what the data do between now and the september meeting, but september is certainly a possibility. David what do you make of the number . The month before everyone is stepping back. You look at the average, might be anomalous, and we get this great number last month. How much credence do you give it . The trend, of course, has been over 200,000. I think there has been some net slowing. Suspect it actually overstates slowing, and we had a very mild winter. There was probably less seasonal layoff activity during the winter and less seasonal rehiring during the spring, so i think that 147 overstates the slowing a little bit, and a look at claims and do not see much evidence of weakening, so the net of it to the volatility is ,ertainly over 150,000 a month probably over 175,000 month, toch is more than enough keep the trend down. We had a story about a drift economy. Do you see the u. S. Getting some velocity and maybe escaping that drift economy . Not quite sure what you mean by jury. Vonnie growth around 2 or less, not more. That has been the trend. So far, if you look at real gdp, it has averaged around a 2 rate. If you look at gdr, it has averaged around 2. 4 . In this cycle, it has been more than enough to bring in the Unemployment Rate. Thatly, i do not see changing. Enough to keep unemployment coming down, and as we just talked, unemployment looks to be in the ballpark of. Ull employment there are signs it is bubbling and picking up a little bit. Wage numbers have all accelerated a little bit in the last year. If you extrapolate and say unemployment keeps falling, it will only put more upward pressure on inflation. David thanks so much for being here. Via lets check in on the news. Mark crumpton has more. Mark british Prime Minister theresa may says she and her cabinet will address the concerns of average families, not the privileged few, after traveling to Buckingham Palace and accepting Queen Elizabeths invitation to form a new government. May gave her first Public Comments as Prime Minister outside number 10 downing street. May following the referendum, we face a time of Great National change, and i know because we are great written that we will because challenge we are great britain. As we leave the European Union, we will forge a new, positive role for ourselves in the world as we will make britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us. That will be the mission of the i lead, and together, we will build a better britain. Mark may takes over from David Cameron who resigned after that referendum she spoke of. Cameron said it was the greatest honor of his life to serve as Prime Minister. Donald trump visited mike pence in indianapolis today as speculation continues the likely republican president ial nominee will choose the indiana governor as his running late. People familiar with the matter say mr. Trump plans to announce his choice on friday. Governor pence joined mr. Trump at a Campaign Rally last night in the state. A former democratic senator says he will make another run for the indiana, a seat in development that could dramatically improve the partys chances of winning back the vacant seat and Senate Control along with it. Democrats have been courting bayh for over a year to run for held by a retiring senator. A federal Appeals Court has denied tom bradys attempt to get a new hearing on his deflate game suspension. A court said in april nfl commissioner Roger Goodell was within his power when he suspended the star quarterback for games for his role in a scheme to dr. Footballs used in a playoff game. Bradys remaining hope is to appeal to the u. S. Supreme court. News 24 hours a day powered by more than 600 journalists and analysts in more than 2100 countries. David coming up in the next 20 minutes, we will take you to 10 downing street as to reason they becomes britains new Prime Minister. And tech giants like this book are writing a new law that sets limits on the Ways Companies can use biometric data. Its time now for our latest Bloomberg Business , a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Credit squeeze changed its Compensation Structure for some ,f its senior london bankers eliminating some of the socalled allowances that have come under regulatory scrutiny. Other lenders have made similar moves in response to European Union moves. Companies are looking to complete negotiations by mid august of this year. If no agreement gets released, they will move to shut down and decommission the Nuclear Plant in january 2016. Vonnie amazon says sales for its Second Annual prime day promotion were up more than 65 from a year ago. Amazon created it to get customers to sign up for its 99 prime membership. David it has been reported the United Kingdom has a new Prime Minister. Theresa may arrived at Buckingham Palace earlier to accept the invitation to form a new government. She gave her first remarks as Prime Minister of the u. K. May theister government i lead will be driven not by the interest of the privileged few, but by yours. We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. When we take a big call, we will think not of the powerful but you. Took new calls, we will listen not to the mighty, but you. When it comes to taxes, we will prioritize not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity, we will not entrench the advantages of the fortunate few. We will do anything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you. David first task forming a new cabinet. That is happening right now. For more, we to Ryan Chilcote. I understand we have breaking news. Ryan we have just learned formerhammond, the secretary of this country, has just been appointed britains finance minister. He was defense secretary before he was foreign secretary. Just within the last 60 seconds, theresa may has made her first appointment since becoming Prime Minister, announcing he will be the countries finance minister. Very interesting. That makes you wonder who will get the job of foreign secretary. I can tell you also within the last several minutes, we have seen boris johnson, the former mayor of london and perhaps bestknown more recently as one of the most vocal proponents of brexit, enter the building. He has long wanted to be Prime Minister himself. That is a bit of an open secret here in the u. K. , and it was leading a campaign to become the head of the conservative party and Prime Minister wind one of his very own Campaign Managers actually betrayed him on the last day of nominations to launch a leadership bid himself. What post he might get we dont know, but very interesting. We expect to get a lot of appointments in the next several minutes. We were told we should get a handful today. Vonnie it is a bit of a blow to george osborne. Tell us more about Philip Hammond, currently former secretary. Was he proor antibrexit . Ryan he was a reluctant remain or, as they say. He campaigned reluctantly for the u. K. Remaining in the European Union, like theresa may who is now the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but he has long had his doubts about the eu. He has been a eurosceptic, as they say. We do not know who is going to. Ave which post yet we do not know what the division of responsibilities is going to be, but clearly, the countries finance minister is going to have a big role in negotiations with the European Union, and he is well suited to that job, at least in terms of his background, because he was foreign secretary. He knows many of the leaders of the eu countries, and its going to be crucial for the chancellor maintainchequer to access to the single market. That is what they really want here in the u. K. Caps on migration, many of the people here want to take their laws they want to, at least here in the city and in london, keep that access, and he should be in a position to do that. David Ryan Chilcote recapping the news we just got. A whirlwind day for theresa may. We heard a bit of her speech at the top. What else have we heard from her about the direction she intends to take this government and . She talked almost exclusively about social justice, saying that her government would be a government causesuld champion the of the working families. Shes trying to get away from the perception that the conservative party is just in it or the privileged, or the elite. It was one of the things we heard in the referendum, people not just wanting to exit the European Union, but set up with a payment, which they see as elitist. Clearly, she is trying to grab that middle ground. Waiting for more names, more cabinet appointments from theresa mays government. To recap, Philip Hammond is the new u. K. Chancellor of the exchequer. George osborne has resigned and is no longer part of the briti government. David still ahead, who owns your fingerprints . Why Silicon Valley wants to squash and of skier illinois law. You may think that your own fingerprint or retinal scan in other words, your biometric data is not your own, but Silicon Valley says not that double and tech giants like facebook are fighting a littleknown law that says how companies can handle that data. You can read all about it in the latest Bloomberg Businessweek. You are saying that my eyes are not my own . Im saying maybe they are being used in ways you have not given them permission to be used. Give us an example. All these Companies Use our biometric data. Facebook and google, who are subject to these lawsuits, are geography,our facial and they use that to create tag suggestions. These lawsuits claim they have not given proper consent to users who may or may not want them to do that and want to know exactly what is going to happen with that data after a certain time. They should not be able to just collect it and do whatever they want with it. David it seems like when you go on facebook, the algorithm is itking for faces, not doing in any sort of direct way. Talk about the grave consequences of losing this information. Would biometric data, it really is singular and cannot be replaced. You could change your fingerprints with surgery or something, but we know how hard it is for banks and other us the two shins and companies to save yard our basic financial data. You cannot be sure they will be able to safeguard this stuff. Once it is out i mean, you can change your Social Security number, but it is very hard to change your retinal scan. David where do things stand legally . This illinois law is being challenged, and it is one state. This only one other law i know of, a texas law, that is being used. They do not want to come locate their business model. David appreciate it. You can read the story in the latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine. Commodity markets are closing in new york. Julie has been watching some of the commodity movers, and weve had one or two today. Julie lets start with oil prices, really affected by the mornings inventories report. Holding pretty steady and then down off a cliff after we got that report, so it initially took a leg lower and then continued and it has been bumping along the bottom. To date into it, lets look at

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