Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160815 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets August 15, 2016

30 minutes into the trading day in the u. S. And hitting records already. Lets head to the markets desk were julie hyman is watching things. Three intraday records again. You can see the gains that we are seeing across the board. I should mention that the gains are on relatively low volume still. The s p 500s volume is to percent below a 30 day average. It is 20 for the dow. Both of them seeing relatively low volume. Theou look at the s p since most recent lows back in july, you only got a gain of 2. 5 . A lot of the movement has been sideways but up enough to keep hitting these new records. Just a reminder however as we get into the dog days of august what last august looked like as we talk of these new records for the s p 500. Here is august 2015 and this is something the traders have been bring up more often. The fact that we did have that unexpected plunge last august as we had some economic troubles out of china and yuan refixing actions othere. Here was the sideways action going up into that drop. Whether theres going to be a catalyst in that direction is anyones guess. The only catalyst we have had today is a positive one. Vonnie quinn said it has to do with opec and the talk from ondi arabia and now russia willingness to perhaps take some sort of action to stabilize oil prices. Oil is now above 45 a barrel. You can see Energy Stocks are on the rise as one of the bestperforming Energy Groups on the s p 500 today. Elsewhere and what we are watching with assets, if you look at the 10year note and the action we are seeing today, a little bit of a bounce in yields 1. 54 . We have some selling and treasuries. We have been watching the u. S. Dollar as well. That not going in the same direction as yields and is down a quarter of a percent. It is falling versus the euro today. 90 minutes left of todays equity session on this monday. We are well below the average daily volume over the last three months. We were 4 10 of 1 higher. A little bit lower now. Benchmark in europe rose to the highest since may 30. The dax turned positive for the year for the first time in 2016. This is the big gainer on the stoxx 600 today. The belgian drugmaker is the big gainer was shares of as much as 5. 9 . Is the most since 2009. It won a u. S. Court ruling confirming the validity of stocking a generic version of its epilepsy drug. They say the ruling is a longawaited boost. Analyst have a 12 month price target. One, private firm kkr has emerged as a potential bidder. Pigown the peppa cartoon, which is massive and the barton household. Entertainment one rejecting a bid from itv worth 236 pence. Is a bidding battle about to brew . I love this chart, showing sterling pessimism. The white line is the level of the pound against the dollar, the lowest at over a month. The blue line is the net speculative position. As you can see, we are negative by 90,000 contracts to the tune of 90,000, which is the most bearish since records began in 1992, as we await a massive week of data. It is the first batch of hard data since brexit. Lets check in on bloomberg first word news today. Alisa prunty has the latest. Urginggermany is tensions to cool over crimea. Vladimir putin has accused ukraine of killing russian soldiers in crimea. Putine denies it and says is looking for an excuse for military action. Russia annexed crimea two years ago. The uks exit from the European Union could be delayed until 2019. That is according to the sunday times. They say the transition may not be ready to start with negotiations early as predicted could it may be a full year before the u. K. Invokes article 50. Fighting in syria has killed dozens of civilians. That is according to a Group Monitoring this in the u. K. Syrian and russian bombers hit the city, killing 46 people. In those areas helped kill nine,. Donald trump going to declare an end to nation building. He says if he is elected, he will give up nation building in favor of a Foreign Policy that focuses on destroying the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations. He is also to propose a new ideological test for screening for proposed immigrants to the u. S. Hillary clinton and joe biden are hitting the campaign trail in scranton, pennsylvania. He will argue that he is less prepared on National Security than any nominee in history and that trumps a red it rhetoric and bluster will make americans less safe. Global news 20 for hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries, i am elisa parenti. Vonnie getting back to oil on the rise. Wti crude continuing to climb. Producers will revised discussions to stabilize the markets. For more on what is fueling this inly, lets bring bloombergs chief energy correspondent. Sentiment. Acting will these words from opec members and nonmembers actually impact supply . Javier i do not take it will have impact on supply. The latest news minutes ago reporting that russia does not think that there will be a freeze agreement when the two sides meet in algiers later in september. At the moment, we are hearing a lot of rhetoric similar to what we are hearing with another moment of weakness in the prices. It seems that opec has taken some cues from the central bank. While it is trying to monitor expectations and talk up the price of oil, we have seen success with wti at 45 a not aboutt it is borrowers an actual supply. Vonnie saudi arabia is really the chair. They impact the market more than any other. Will that continue . Javier the comments from saudi arabia are the critical ones. It will make the market take it more seriously than in the past when other countries in the past have been talking about a potential freeze. What thek about saudis are saying and that they are open is needed to take some corrective action. It is unclear what that collective action with the. Would be. Production is at a record high today. Theres a gap between what saudi arabia is saying and what saudi arabia is actually doing. Mark we have been here before with doha in april and we were so optimistic. What have we learned from april . Javier the main lesson was iran. Iran is key for any deal. You need the saudis and iran to be on the table to freeze production. Because what matters the most is what level they are freezing. I do not see any signs of iran being ready to freeze production. They claim theyre coming back from sanctions and they need to continue increasing production. The oil factories what level of production are we talking about for the freeze . The last time they were talking countriese have been positioned a lot more. Isre are no signs that it freezing. Increasing. Ction is its like if i was going on a diet after visiting a hamburger restaurant for the last two weeks, im happy with this. This is going to be my diet. Mark ahead of this possibility in algiers the next month, we have got Money Managers increasing wages on rising crude prices by the most since january. This is speculative long positions, which are at the highest since may 2015. That is the white line. Features is the blue line. What is telling us right now is that Money Managers are getting quite excitable. Javier liquidity is low in the summer and that is one factor. There were a lot of negative positions on the oil market, so theyre are taking the money and opening their own position. The trend at the moment is rising oil prices. I think saudi arabia was very successful at scaring those bears than they were with massive short positions by convincing them to take the money and stop pushing presses down. The saudis are in not trying to talk up the prices but prevent that prices were going to drop below 40 a barrel. Mark great to see you. P. M. In london. K gives us anrac exclusive inside look at trumps vision for america. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york, it is a sunny london. I am mark barton. Vonnie you are watching bloomberg markets. It is time now for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at the biggest is in stores in the news right now. Private equity firm ptg has agreed to buy Broadband Services providers. Tpg will pay about 2. 3 billion. They are owned by private equity firms. Rcn offers cable, phone, Internet Service on the east coast and chicago. Grande is in texas. The price is about 1. 7 billion in cash. Senses provides smart meters and Network Technology for its water, electric, and other industries. The biggest ever privatization deal in hong kong. Shareholders one approval to buy out the commercial Properties Unit according to people familiar with the matter. He will eventually move to Mainland China where companies are going higher in terms of valuations than in hong kong. That is your business flash. Demographicsn, seem to be getting in the way of growth. That is the assessment from High Frequency economics Carl Weinberg. Isnberg says japans problem height of local. He made the case on bloomberg surveillance today. If our population goes down, our economy will shrink. Since there is no sign of our population going down and since we are not going to build that mexico or cut off immigration, we are going to get through the baby boomer crisis and continue to grow. Maybe not as fast as we did before, but we will grow. Japan needs people. It does not need more fiscal policy or Monetary Policy. It needs more people. Im going to push back against not what you said now, but what you said previously. This is my japan chart. The blue line is unemployment. We are at 3. 3 . Other western economies would love and kill for this kind of thing. This is the Balance Sheet of the boj. This is a clear demographic problem. Even if you see gdp not rising, how do you get out of this . It needs to be open borders. It needs to come for immigration. They need to have more people. When you have a contracting economy, its different. The Unemployment Rate is an irrelevant statistic. The Unemployment Rate measures how growing labor force is pressured by growing employment. When population is coming down, it doesnt matter what the Unemployment Rate is an. There is no tightness of capacity. You have more of everything. With all that said, we know the bank of japan will try anyway to do more to provide more monetary accommodation. It said that it will conduct a comprehensive assessment of its policies to date to see if they work. It seems they are worried about the impact on Financial Institutions a very long term interest rates. What do you expect of this comprehensive assessment . What you think they will do . Your and my idea of comprehensive is very different. Theres only one Monetary Policy in japan it is qqe. We have seen that coming from the boj Board Members as well. I do not think we will see anything in september. But carl, you need businesses and consumers to start spending. Negative rates backfired and every thing else backfired. What will it take for people to start spending in japan . People are spending in japan, but there is not as many as before. This is what people are missing about japan. Im looking at the numbers. Hold on. Business spending actually declined 0. 4 . Consumer spending increasing 0. 2 . That is barely spending. Fairly spending thats right. There is one quarter of 1 fewer people in japan then there were the quarter before. The fact that Consumer Spending did not go down at all is great. Thats an economic success. Meanwhile, their population is going down. There debt is not. The debt to population is rising and the debt burden is rising. Inevitably Consumer Expenditures will have to fall because after they pay their taxes and that, they are going to have less money to spend on blurays and dvds and sushi and whatever else they buy and japan. It seems that double be growing faster than gdp. How will they get out of the debt dilemma . To have a norm is of debt relative to gdp. Their problems and then there are facts. Problems and not a solution, its not a problem to be solved anymore, but its a fact. They are going to fail. Its just a question of how long they can put it off. When you look at what theyre doing now with the negative interest rates, they have been out to try to prevent it from happening and they cant. Mark High Frequency economics chief economist Carl Weinberg there with bloombergs tom keene and francine lacqua. Still ahead, oil is on the rise and chinese stocks are rallying in japan. Storieslay mondays big with etfs. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york, i am mark barton. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn and you are watching bloomberg markets. Looking at etfs to watch this week, lets head over to julie hyman. Julie im joined by eric balchunas, the senior etf analyst. He is joining us from our princeton office. Great to see you. Lets map out the week and what we should be watching. As i was talking earlier, one of the big movements in the market has been oil prices. They had a big bounce from the lows and entered a bear market a week and a half ago. They are now up 13 from that level. There is an etf for that. There is an etf tracking this game that we have been seeing. Eric theres about 30 of them that track oil in one form or another. The one that you need to watch his uso. Is the United States oil fund. This tracks oil futures and it has the most sensitivity to the moves of spot. Spot was up 7 in the past two days. Uso is up 7 . However, the bad news is that over the longterm, because the cost rolling a longer futures position, it corrodes returns. Year to date spot is up 15 and uso is down 5 . I was asked on friday why would anybody by uso and the reason is that if you want to play shortterm moves in spot, the longterm will probably go down, even if you get your call right on oil. The one that tracks the oil Energy Stocks is the one that most retail would use to play oil in the longterm and that is up 50 yeartodate. It only went up 2 in the past few days. Julie it obviously matters if you are longterm or shortterm investors. Another etf that you are watching has to deal with china. We have seen chinese stocks rally. Your options are somewhat more limited. Eric for the china a share toket, shares only available mainland consumers, they are opening that up. The csi 300 is the one that most people use. It is far and away the biggest one in the area. This is up a bit in the past week. It has had a rough year and is trailing the a shares. What came outat in 2013, and you would think that after all the bad news that this is horrible, but it is actually tied with the s p since 2013. Theyre both of about 26 . That is how amazing how the early part of 2013 was for china a shares. Julie interesting. Ssi is that a shares etf that you were referring to. Switching again to a different part of the globe, the u. K. , we have inflation data coming out this week. What is one way to play that in either direction . Eric sure, so that ishares u. K. Etf ticker is the one to watch. , this etf is up 15 , but it is seeing zero flows. Investors are little gun shy in that investing in. The one that we have seen flows is the pound etf. That tracks the currency and we have seen this double in size to 250 million. The pound is down 2 since the brexit. Investors heavily call this wrong in terms of etf place. Whether you go along or short, that is the one to watch. Julie very quickly, japan as well. Wisdom tree japan hedged equity fund, youre watching that one. Eric it is getting killed. Watch this one for flows. It is literally half the size it used to be. It was 18,000,000,001 year ago. 18 billion one year ago. You wg would be the one that does not do that. Japan is up a little bit this year. Julie weve got to leave it there. Thank you so much. Vonnie still had, an exclusive aterview with tom barrack, senior economic adviser to donald trump. He is talking everything from taxes to regulation. This is bloomberg. [ clock ticking ] time. You only have so much. Thats why we want to make sure you wont have to wait on hold. And you wont have to guess when well turn up. Because after all we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Everything is cool when youre watching a screen everything is awesome, when youre sharing a meme a voice remote, show me angry kings you know whats awesome . Everything apps that please, more selfies, endless hours of the best tvs brand new apps, shows to go, awesome internet thats super whoa. Everything is awesome xfinity. The future of awesome. Vonnie from bloomberg headquarters in new york and london, im vonnie quinn. Mark im mark barton. You are watching bloomberg markets. Lets get a check on the first word news with alisa parenti. A car bomb exploded at a Police Station in southeast turkey today. Two Police Officers and a child were killed. 25 others were wounded. Authorities blame kurdish rebels. Last week, and attack killed 12 people. In switzerland, a man who attacked passengers on a plane with a knife has died of burns and one of his victims also died. Police say there is no indication the suspect had ties to extremist groups. A new poll finds most americans favor limited u. S. Military action in syria. 72 of americans approved of air strikes against terrorists. 57 approved of sending special Operations Forces into syria. Only 42 favored sending u. S. Ground troops into the region. Much of louisiana is underwater after days of catastrophic flooding. More than 20,000 people have been rescued. At least six have died in the disaster. 40,000 businesses and homes are without power. President obama has declared a state of emergency. Wildfire in Northern California has forced 4000 people from their homes. The fire has destroyed more than 100 homes. It is one of 11 large wildfires burning in the state to own by edgh temperatures and parch conditions brought on by a fiveyear drought. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im alisa parenti. This is bloomberg. Thank you. One controversial remark followin

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