Worrisome development for the oil market. New discoveries of oil at their lowest level in 70 years and explorers are slashing their budgets. Does this mean a supply shortfall is coming . Markets close in about two hours. U. S. Majors are strayeding solidly in the red right now. We see the dow down about half a percent. E s p 500 down about 3 10 of a percent. The nasdaq down as well. We go to the nasdaq in manhattan. Hi there, david. You do have the nasdaq trading down. In fact, just hitting near session lows moments ago, starting to recover. Well see how the next two hours do play out. As for what is dragging today, the worst percentage performer is g3 an apparel and accessory maker. The stock is plunging after the company just had a horrible second quarter. They also guided down, as for the miss in the second quarter, they missed Sales Estimates by 9 . They guided Third Quarter earnings below the street by as much as 28 . Some investors are probably not too surprised. Theres a Short Interest here of 12 . As for whats helping, theres a bit of attention with the nasdaq down not too, too much. Shares are nicely higher, on pace for the best pace in two months after the company says it is no longer going after hershey as a 23 billion acquisition. This following stalled takeover talks. But many are pleased with this. Investors clearly with the stock higher considering hershey is slow growth and possibly a potential drag. And finally we do have the shares of ebay trading, hitting a record high as it is an attractive target for online retailers, considering that ebay as an extensive presence. Whats interesting here, theres not a lot of love on the street for ebay. 65 of the analysts have either a hold rating or a sell rating. Interesting because the stock is actually up 16 this year. But the investors who are truly happy are those who got in on the i. P. O. Back in 1998. The stock is up 3,740 over that time period. So a big winner there over the long run. Thank you. Down at the nasdaq there. Now lets check in on the bloomberg news. Mark crumpton has more. Mark the white house says the Obama Administration is concerned american taxpayers will ultimately bear the brunt of the European Unions decision requiring apple to pay billions of dollars in back taxes to ireland. The Obama Administration officials not surprisingly have heard from officials at apple who are concerned about the way theyre being treated by Foreign Governments. I think thats shouldnt be a particular surprise to anybody. But whats also true is the Obama Administration has repeatedly indicated our willingness to go and fight for american taxpayers and american businesses overseas when theyre being treated unfairly. Mark apple c. E. O. Tim cook says the Company Never asked for nor received what he called special deals on its taxes from ireland. And the Treasury Department says retroactive tax assessments by the e. U. Commission are unfair, contrary to wellestablished legal principles and call into question the tax rules of the individual countries in the European Union. Hillary clinton has an eightpoint lead over donald trump in pennsylvania. According to a university poll, clinton leads trump 48 to 40 in the battleground state. 6 backed gary johnson. Independents are twied at 39 for trump, 36 for clinton. Two states hold primary elections today. Arizona senator john mccain is seeking a sixth term. His main challenger in the republican contest is kelly ward mccain is hoping to win big so he can focus on a general election caling from ann kirk patrick. Florida voters also go to the polls. Marco rubio is on the ballot. Patrick murphy and alan grayson are the two leading candidates to possibly face rubio in november. 37 victims of last weeks deadly earthquake in italy were honored at a state funeral in the devastated town. The service was held in a covered area constructed overnight after relatives rejected plans to have a funeral in an airport hangar 40 miles away. The death toll from the quake stands at 292. Global news powered 24 hours a day in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Fed vice chairman is saying the path to an Interest Rate hike will be based on economic data. He spoke cluffly with bloomberg earlier today. The work of the central bank is never done, and i dont think you can say one and done and thats it. We can choose the pace. But if we choose the pace on the basis of data that are coming in, so clong we know at the time we start whether its one and done or several. It depends entirely on whats happening in the economy. In your speech, you sated i am an optimist. You are surrounded by pessimists. We speak to them every day on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg radio. I want you to redefine marvin goodfriends comment in jackson hole of pervasive pessimism. Its out there. Pervasive pessimism exists today. How do you push back against that . Well, the question is what is the pessimism about . Its not about employment. Employment is very close to full employment. Its about growth, and that problem is largely about productivity growth, something which is very hard to control. By pollmakers. It depends enormously on what private individuals are doing in their companies. And its very slow at the moment. It changes from time to time. But we do not know when it will change. I expect it will change somewhere down the road. There are remarkable things going on on the technological front, but they are not yet in the data. You mentioned also the unmitigated blessings of the United States. Americas different. Certainly youre running the central bank distinct from the challenges that other Central Banks are. Do you feel going into the september meeting, or for that matter the december meeting, that you are the central bankers to the world, or can you be discreet and look only at the United States chicks . Well, the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, particularly the Capital Markets of the world. So what we do affects many other countries. That was always so. Its also true that what they do affects us, so were dealing with interconnectedness. And we are probably the most important of the Central Banks, but the European Central bank is operating in an area of about the same level of g. D. P. And what it does matters a great deal. And so on. Different economists have princeton and m. I. T. Have an idea to go back to simpler economic models, simpler models, more hooked into the real economy. The debate at jackson hole and the debate youre having at the fed, does it need to go back to simpler models that you taught years ago at m. I. T. . Well, we all love simplicity. The question is, i think, d. S. G. Models, as theyre called, those which are fundamentally forward looking and the fult matters and expectation matter, or those which are more traditional, but may be very big. The basic model that the fed ses, the socalled frbus model is actually large and quite complicated. But its structure is one that one could explain to economic students. I would like you to explain it now to bankers. What i would suggest respectfully, sir, theres a hole system out in jackson hole. When we look at negative rates, sub par Economic Growth and the product that you mention, i dont see the economists addressing the dysfunction to the financial system. Within the debate that youre having for september and december, are you sensitive and aware to Global Finance and Global Banking having to deal with negative Interest Rates just as one example . Well, were sensitive to whats going on. One hears about it. One hears and reads about and talks about you just have to look at the stock prices in europe, sir. Whats happening in japan, for instance. Yes, we take all that into account. The United States is fortunate that were not in a passion where Interest Rates are negative or have to be negative. And were not planning to do anything in that direction. But were certainly following the debates and we certainly follow the theory of negative Interest Rates. David Stanley Fischer earlier today on Bloomberg Television. I want to pick up on that. Take a look at this chart. A big takeaway was him saying essentially that two rate hike ress still on the table. Didnt say that directly, but alluded to it in the way a fed official would. The probability of a rate hike in september rising, surpassing the possibility of a fed rate hike in december. You see the probability in white. The september rate hike in blue. A turn there based perhaps in part on his comments. It was discussed at the jackson hole symposium a few days ago. See fridays jobs report. David, 3140 in your bloomberg chart library, youll see the target. Its that purple line right there at 2 . This is year over year, which is what the fed is watching the fed said its not too concerned and that it will rise. But a couple of years. So whats it going to take for this to come up to here in a couple of years . You can only imagine. This is p. C. E. , so not core. This includes things like oil, things like health care, things Like Services and so forth. This is what the fed is focused on, but its a long ways to go from there to there. David you mentioned the jobs report. A lot of evidence from fed officials here that they are satisfied or getting satisfied with where employment is. Now the focus shifts here to inflation. Coming up in the next 20 minutes, donald trump is set to give a critical speech on immigration tomorrow in arizona. Will he be able to stay on message . The Technology Behind virtual assistance has made big strides in the last two years, but for many consumers, its still a long way to go. Well explain how Tech Companies are trying to turn up the volume. David new york is 12 12, wall street time. The dow down almost half a percent. The s p 500 down to 2271. The nasdaq down 23 points at 5,209. This is bloomberg. David this is bloomberg markets. Vonnie its time now for a look at some of the business stories in the news. The securities and Exchange Commission is giving 22 million to a corporate inciteder who helped the regulator uncover fraud. The second biggest payout ever. The whistleblower gave information that helped the s. E. C. Stop illegal activity at the individuals employer. Now the agency hasnt provided any information on the prns identity nor on the company involved. David clear skies ahead for the first u. S. Commercial flight to cuba. Jetblues flight will originate in fort lauderdale. It will be the first of many daily flights to cuba. American airlines will begin flights from miami to cuba in september. Vonnie and space Social Security ex has a recycled rocket. S. E. S. Says it will send its next Communications Satellite into orbit on a previously flown rocket. It has recovered six boosters following liftoff. The s. E. S. Launch will take place this fall. And thats our latest stories. David donald trump is set to give a critical speech on immigration tomorrow in arizona after pulling back on some of his controversial rhetoric l he be able to stay on message . I want to get some perspective on this. Let me ask you first of all, we heard a lot about Donald Trumps message on immigration, how its changed or it may not have been consistent. As you look at it, how constant has he been . What has changed over the last few weeks, last few months . David, over the last few weeks what donald trump has changed a little bit is hes backed away from his promise during the primary to do a massive deportation programs, essentially round up and expel 11 Million People who are estimated to be in the country illegally. It would be extremely expensive. Even immigration hardliners are not clamoring for this. They realize its not particularly realistic or practical. So trump has softened on that under pressure and under questioning, but Everything Else in his platform is pretty much the same. He remains opposed to any kind of legalization for the people here. Hes still in favor of building a wall on the Mexican Border and he still favors things like tracking system for visa overstays. This has been a centerpiece of his identity. It was the reason that he catapulted so high and so fast in the republican primary. Vonnie we have new polling which shows surprisingly thin margins in three battleground states including michigan, and also pennsylvania, theyre tied in ohio at 43 . I mean, does it surprise that you these are such slim margins at this point . Not particularly. I wouldnt make too much of it right now because this is one poll and most of the polls weve seen have the margins much higher. So clintons lead in each of these states is much bigger. So you know, this is the start of a shift where the polls are narrowing and donald trump is closing in on her in these states. Yes, she should be worried and yes, it would be troubling for her. Its too early to know. Im strongly of the belief that we shouldnt look at any one particular poll, even if its the latest poll or a credible one. But we should look at polling averages. Right now the averages show clinton doing very well. David theres a piece looking at Hillary Clintons strategy here talking about donald trump and his platform. She has made an effort since the speech in nevada to draw a istring dash distinction between Donald Trumps parties and the republican party. There are some who wish he hadnt. Thats right. This is a subtle but important area of disagreement between Hillary Clinton and some democratic strategists outside her campaign. What she is trying to do is create a structure for republicans to ditch donald trump by saying he doesnt represent your party. He doesnt represent the mainstream but hes on the radical fringe and she accused him of trafficking in white supremacist sentiments. So her argument is that he doesnt represent the party. Democrats who are focused on winning races down the ballot in house races and in the senate want to do is they want to tie every other republican on these ballots running in these races to donald trump. And they want to say that trump is a reflection of the party, therefore, you should vote against every one of them. So thats a dispute between what the clinton people want to do and what some other democrats want to do. Vonnie on a completely different matter, if you dont mind, we found out today that the Obama Administration has spoken with apple about the European Commission decision to tax apple in arrears, or to have ireland collect taxes. How interesting is it that an administration would take a position on Something Like this . Well, i mean, it is interesting, but its also not totally unexpected. We are talking about a lot of money here, and what the white house spokesman expressed concern over was american taxpayers would end up bearing costs and of these the hit to the United States treasury would be pretty significant. The issue connects to something president obama and the white house have been very focused on, you know, the idea of individuals and corporations dodging taxes here. Either setting up offshore or elsewhere and trying to use loopholes in the tax code to avoid it. Its kind of all part of a Bigger Picture where it doesnt totally surprise me that the white house decided this was ignificant enough to weigh in. Vonnie thanks for joining us. And you can follow all of the politics action on the bloomberg app. Everything you need to stay up to date on the race for the white house. More on that big apple story, by the way, later this hour. Were speaking with the president and chief analyst. David the race to voice control. Well explore how Tech Companies are trying to upgrade their digital assistance. This is bloomberg. Avid heres our report. You ideally interact with your voice. So a good example on the market right now, you have siri where with the push of a button, you know, youre supposed to be able to ask her for things like the weather or to set a timer or to return a bit of information. And the, you know, the dream, thats sort of the version that we have now. But i think the dream that a lot of people see authorize these things su being able to do things like, you know, turn down the lights or, you know, ask it to do more complicated things like, you know, maybe book me a vacation, you know, in x place later in the month or the year, Something Like that. So kind of more complex tasks than we can do with them right now. So integral to doing this sort of thing, whether its with i is having a microphone that can pick up what youre saying. Whats been the difficulty in developing something that works effectively . So its kind of interesting because we actually do have the technology right now to make a very, very sensitive effective microphone, but the problem is that you run into these tradeoffs. You have to have one thats sensitive, but when youre talking about consumer technology, it also has to be small. It has to be very, very low on power. It has to be reliable. And obviously all of those things are really important when youre talking about, you know, smaller devices and mobile devices. And so thats sort of interesting on the one hand. As far as the microphones themselves, i mean, youre seeing, espe