Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2016120

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 20161209

Seeing doolittle, we are lots of records yet again. Abigail we have green for the u. S. Major averages. We have more record highs to talk about. Nasdaq, s p 500, the all three averages are on pace to finish at record closes. Up six daysis now in a row. If it closes that way, it will be the longest daily winning streak since before brexit. A bit of a risk on trading today. As we look at currencies, there is confirmation of this risk on trading for the markets. We have the bloomberg dollar index up nicely. On pace for its birthday since the end of november. Best day since the end of november. The yen is on pace for its worst day since the end of november, trading at the lowest level since february. Taking a look at the commodity complex, oil is higher. On the week it is slightly lower. This follows last weeks massive gain, up more than 12 on that opec supply deal. We are wondering if we will see more declines after that initial pop. If we look at the bloomberg, and we look at this chart. This suggests gains are ahead for oil. This is the longterm chart for oil. In the blue boxes are the previous opec supply cut deals of one Million Barrels or more. We see out of those, some volatility and absolutely huge gains. This may suggest more strength ahead for the oil energy complex. Mark great chart. Love that chart. A big week ahead for opec. There is the stoxx 600. Rising for the fifth day, long a strong its october. Since october. We are on track for the best weekly gain since february. It is up 4. 4 . So many statistics to blow you away with. Stocks. Lk about italian it has been a week of italy after the referendum. They are on track for the best league in five years. Are they . It is touch and go. Will be four years or five years . This is going back to 2012. The gauge has rebounded 21 since june 27. Back then it was the lowest in three years. Bull market on wednesday. The rsi hit the highest since august of 2013. We are down in italy by 15 . Down 64 since the record in 2000. Those days, the height of the. Com boom. The dotcom boom. Monte paschi, the biggest decline since november 28, after the ecb rejected their request for more time to complete a 5 billion euro capital increase. You can see shares have been altered a few times this afternoon. Shares are down 10. 5 . This increases the likelihood of the state bailout that would impose losses on shareholders and bondholders. Not the news that monte paschi wanted to hear today. In light of the news from mario draghi yesterday, i thought we would look at the spread between the two year and 30 year yield in germany. Look at the difference. It is at the widest since november 2015. Mario draghi student steep and the yield curve yesterday. They see the potential for continued accommodation due to the weak inflation outlook. So much happening. Back to you. Julie we will talk more about monte paschi in a few moments. Lets take a look at bloomberg word news. The president of south korea has been impeached. Lawmakers voted to remove her after and influence peddling scandal. Her powers have been suspended. The Prime Minister will step in as acting president until the countrys Supreme Court decides whether to formally and her presidency. Italys Prime Minister matteo renzi is keeping the country waiting area he has not told the countrys president whether he will stay on despite his defeat in a constitutional referendum. Renzits to know if matteo will agree to be reappointed. Defense secretary Ashton Carter says the u. S. Will stick by afghanistan for years to come. He spoke at a joint appearance with the countrys resident during his final visit to afghanistan as head of the pentagon. We not only continue supporting our afghan partners, but continue our Counterterrorism Mission well into the future to ensure no terrorist group can seek safe havens, such that it can threaten the stability of afghanistan, the u. S. Homeland, or the coalition. This was his last planned trip to afghanistan before handing over responsibilities to his designated successor, james mattis. John glenn is being remembered as a war hero as the american who was first to orbit the earth. The last survivor of the original mercury seven after not. His flight revitalized the American Space program. He spent 24 years in the american senate. He ran for president in 1984. At the age of 77, he became the oldest person to go into space. He was 95. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Mark two italy. Shares of monte paschi hitting hammer today. Getting hammered today. They were down 9 . They were down 16. 5 earlier. The ecb has said they have rejected the banks request for more time for a 5 billion euro capital increase. Lets bring in our european economy editor. What is the reason for this rejection . The ecb has not really spelled that out. The word came this afternoon in frankfurt. That is the way things are going right now. There is drama going on after that word came out. The chairman of monte paschi and the ceo met with government officials in rome. There is some plan that is being hammered out now. I would like to put this story in context. Why is monte paschi so important , not just to the italian banking sector, but to europe as a whole . If it were to get into more dire trouble, what kind of consequences would that have . It is the oldest bank still in operation. It has continuously been one of the weak links in the european Banking System. That is symbolic of the whole system. As Everybody Knows now, the italian Banking System is way down, about 360 billion euros worth of troubled loans. Fixing monte paschi would be important or the entire system. Mark thank you for joining us. Reporting on that big story that is coming out today on monte paschi and ecb rejecting their Capital Raising extension plan. Lets get a take on italy as the banking drama continues to unfold. We are joined by didier duret. Inhas more than 200 billion assets under management. We have seen a real rebound in european banking shares. Low inlmost five year july. This is the sort of news that the european Banking Industry does not want to hear. Mr. Duret i think the rebound in europe in general is simply because there is an and to underperformance. There might be some form of expectation Going Forward because the results we expected Companies Even greater than u. S. Companies were certain of them. We are moving away from the negative Interest Rate environment. This is something that is positive for the sector. When we look at the risk premium, there is huge risk premium connected to the Political Risk that is expected for 2017. If 2016 was the year of populism, we have seen that in big letters, next year might be probably different. Revered. H are being merkelposition of angela in germany. It may be the early sign that the center has been revered. That could be a good sign for the Political Risk. Shocks . Are expecting mr. Duret if they do not come, that will be positive. Julie when you are seeing political shocks, you have an interesting legal observation. You say 2013 will be the year of the political center, this centrist snapback. Does that mean there will be fewer opportunities for political shocks . Mr. Duret i think there will be a lot of drama connected with the elections. Ms. Le pen. Ere is the population is very mobilized by what happened in 2016. In mindhave to keep that the center has been trying for Something Like 30 years. In many downsides, there is a limit. Julie if there is a limit to the downside, does that translate into general bullishness in stocks in europe . That the new know administration and the u. S. Will be extremely generous in terms of fiscal policy. Nothing that has come out of europe so far. Next year, the things to watch are the physical fiscal initiatives that europe takes. We can no longer rely on her monetary support. Mark lets get to numbers. Records in the u. S. , europes highest level since january, you say primed for a significant overweight in equities. Given that this rally in the u. S. Is based on hope and the rally in europe could be based on hope in earnings, what upside the you see . Mr. Duret at the end of the year, we are always there. Go2000 something, we can with earnings of between 2 and 5 . If we go with a modest interpretation. We may think it is totally fake, but it is not. We are also seeing a strong cyclical uplift. We see that in manufacturing, and also in the confidence in the u. S. , which numbers that were published this afternoon on Consumer Confidence shows. There is an opportunity to regain growth. We are saying goodbye to deflation. We had a great meeting on the transition. We are putting this country back on track. Thanks, guys. Julie unfortunately we only caught the tail end of his comments. That was paul ryan at trump tower. Concerned are you about potential trade policies of the Trump Administration and whether that could crimp profits . Mr. Duret when we talk about trade, this is a longterm issue. Markets get very impatient about it. It is very far in the future. The markets are interested in the short term thing. When we look at what is the trend that is most trusting for the market, it is the globalization and digitalization of trade. It is not about growth or volume, it is about invisible goods and services. This is happening for some years. E trade investor can still companieslooking at like retail companies. Mark 2 trillion bond market. Ock they areshc calling it from the trunk victory. You have a 10 year yield projection of 2. 9 . The bonds are declining in light of mario draghi yesterday. Explain what is going on. Mr. Duret there is expectation of fiscal stimulus. That means more assurance on the long end. They will issue a lot of bonds at the far end of the curve. It will not move in a straight line. 70 tok there is possibly 100 basis points of risk on the bond market. I think it will be an opportunity to go back into normalization. It will be good for the financial companies. It will be good for the insurance companies. The pension problem will not be as keen as it was. It will be good for the companies on the pension side. I think it will have a lot of effect, not only negative effect for the equity market. Higher yield in the u. S. Will not break the rally on the equity side as long as it is not too brutal and to rapid. Mark thank you for joining us. Didier duret, chief investment officer. Julie cocacola on the rise after their ceo steps down next year and is released by the companies chief operating officer. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york, i am mark barton. Julie i am julie hyman. This is bloomberg markets. Ceo of cocacola announcing plans to step down. We have shares soaring on this news. Theyre up 2 on the news that James Quincey will be replacing muhtar kent as the ceo. We did reach out to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, who says that this is a natural progression. James quincey has been groomed for this position. 65 ,s of cocacola are up and on the year it is a different story. Decline. Bit of the it is modest on the year. Can shea told us there are a couple of Different Reasons for this, one is right here. Revenues declining over the last couple years. It appears investors are not going to tolerate this as much. Cocacola derives 75 of its business from out of the u. S. , and it is getting clobbered by a rising dollar. Declining as sales consumers are less interested in sugary drinks. It will be interested to interesting to see what the company does in 2017 and 2018 to turn those sales around. Mark thank you. It has been a big week or new etf launches. From funds that track media moguls to those that help you play wearable technology. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york, i am mark barton. Julie this is bloomberg markets. There have been 220 etf launches this year, making it harder for any single product to stand out. There were a few that turned some heads. Joining us now is Eric Balchunas, from Bloomberg Intelligence. You and i talked about the crowded field for etfs quite often. The first one we will talk about is the media mogul next shares. What makes this differentiated . Eric three things, one is a household name. We do not see many rock star managers for the most part. That is number one. Number two is it is tracking it is called the media mogul. It is singular, not plural. This is the first time where the fund is tracking stocks that are associated with one person, in this case john malone. All the stops that he has something to do with. They think there is outlook behind that. The third thing is the structure is different. It is a hybrid between etf and a mutual fund. This structure is important because it allows active managers to come into the etf space and take advantage of the tax efficiency and lower cost of it. I will not get into the weeds. It is a little different. You can buy shares during the day, but you cannot see the holding, they will show you those quarterly like a mutual fund. It charges 1 . It will be interesting to see if the name is enough to overcome the fact that it is active, which has not been doing well, and the fact that it is on the expensive side. If it outperforms, he could get some assets. The next one is something that already exist in another form. The deutsche highyield bond etf. How is this different . Hyg is the most popular. This is cheap. Deutsche bank cannot and priced a vanilla highyield bond etf at 25 basis points, cap as much as at 50. As much as hyg this shows that the fee war is spreading outside of places that vanguard is. Typically in areas where they dont have funds, people would price higher. In essence they have come in by pricing really cheap. We saw goldman launch a smartbeta etf that nine basis. The thing with highyield is that people love hyg for the liquidity. It will take long time for this to get that kind of liquidity. This could be appealing for the cheap cost. Julie Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence, makes as always. Mark still ahead, trading in the Third Largest u. S. Ipo of the year. Shares rising out of the gate. We will speak to the chief executive. A. 7 . This is bloomberg. Generosity is its own form of power. You can handle being a mom for half an hour. Im in all the way. Is that understood . I dont know what shes up to, but its not good. Cant the world be my noodles and butter . Get your mind out of the gutter. Mornings are for coffee and contemplation. That was a really profound observation. You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. A lovely dayie here in new york city. Im julie hyman. Mark lovely day there. I mark barton. Lets check bloomberg first word news. Alisa parenti has more from our newsroom in new york. To pass agress needs stopgap spending the by midnight, or some Government Operations will have to feast. Coal state lawmakers want a oneyear extension for miners benefits, instead of fix in there now. John mccain says there is very little doubt that russia interfered in the election. Other republicans will join this probe. That will put them in conflict president elect donald trump who downplays the possibility of a russian role in the election. The u. K. Was to stay in the eu emissions trading system, once brexit is complete. That is according to officials familiar with the matter. Greenhouse omissions across europe. Its unclear if the eu will allow the u. K. To remain after brexit. Chinas president xi jinping says he is certain that the country will reach its economic and cultural objective this year, according to its state run agency. It has surprised skeptics with three quarters of growth. They will further open the economy next year and try to attract more investment. Nd in paris, iraq invitation the a rat infestation. There are two and a half rats per person. Parks are closed and trash bins are being redesigned to keep rats out. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. On alisa parenti. This is bloomberg. Julie . Julie thanks. Shares are how the trading on the thirdlargest ipo of the year. The new company reached just over a billion dollars in the offering and price shares of 40 appears. Joining us now, alex barinka, our ipo reporter. She is a special guest. Do have a special guest. The stock is trading above the 40 ipo price. How are you feeling about the open right now . Great, great. It could not have gone better. We are really excited for the company. We have worked hard for this day. We think the best is to come for us. Alex walked us through this. You are an annuity provider. You have a tie to apollo as well. Thene is a 7 yearold Financial Services help company. We have 80 billion in assets. We over we have over a billion dollars in excess capital. We have no debt. Unique opportunistic Asset Management capability that is really a value add for us. Investorstoday, dollars, a mix of that. More shares than initially offered. Why are investors so different, we are a meaning better, Financial Services story. We have a more efficient organizational structure and a superior management team. I think its a very unique situation. We expect more things to come in the future. Blackso, colors leon talked this week carlos leon lott talked this week about opportunities in europe. He said that there is a moreenge because it is fragmented. How do you see the landscape overseas . Jim in partnership of apollo, apollo has a worldwide reach. We are confident that they can help us with research and acquisitions. Weh a Small German Company bought a year ago already. We are excited about doing more with apollo. We think that there is opportunity there. Are acai from germany, there other areas in the euro region you would see as the first woman next step for

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