Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2016121

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas December 12, 2016

Abigail a record once again. Enough to put both at record highs. The week is young. It is worth noting that the dow is on pace for its sixth weekly gain. Itll be interesting to see whether the record highs continue. The nasdaq is trading lower, confirmation between the s p 500 with the risk on scene that we are seeing in oil. The highest since july 2017. We have a two day chart of oil which shows massive gains. More than 5 . They did pledge to cut production more than previously agreed and nonopec members are saying they also are going to cut production. Some are talking about this as doing whatever it takes for oil. But oppenheimer is saying that 60 a barrel is the new normal for oil. Starks are rising today. Look at the oil and gas index up by 2. 5 percent. The stoxx 600 is down by a quarter of 1 . Biggest weeklyhe gain. A great status. Companies reached overbought levels last week. Energyhest level stocks are overbought for the First Time Since april 2015. That is the best performing Industry Group today following the big discussion and steel that took place in vienna over the weekend. Other stories to tell you about. This company has record intraday highs. This is a French Company gaining to a record after agreeing to buy pioneer global. 3. 5 billion euros in cash is the price. This will accelerate growth. To pay for the purchase. Purchase will give them more than 1. 3 trillion under management. Making the worlds eighth biggest asset management. On friday. Bout this shares lower. They went up on friday after 21st century fox table to preliminary offer of 10. 75. We closed up on friday and we are down a little bit today. Prices aresee, share below the 10 pound 75 preliminary offer price, which that you some indication the deal wont be completed. People say the structure of the deal is being discussed right now. The german 10 on year yield. It is creeping higher. 40 basis points. It wasnt long ago when we were as low as 18 basis points negative. Have we seen the back end of negative german yields . According to economists, we have. There were no calls in the monthly poll below zero in the forecast to rise through 2018. Yields have been moving higher ending in 2017 at. 60 . Today, the increase is predicted to be gradual so say economists with a medium forecast of 1 on of 2018. Ar by the end but that is quite a bit pause. We have seen the end of german yields. Since january. Julie . Julie back to the big story on oil. Saudi arabia has signaled it is ready to cut oil production. His coming after russia novak said political was critical in getting that deal through. An Important Role has was crg that deal through. Been played by the ministers. I think the key role should be given to leadership. There he supported that the deal. As it goes forward and understanding the importance of the deal being done. Supporthis political which you talked about, this actually significantly helps to build a trustful relationship with our partners from opec and nonopec countries, especially with saudi arabia. These nonopec cuts genuine . Or are they natural declines . I have to say that the situation is different as you go country by country. But i was very pleasantly surprised to see the support with russia to be dissipate. I would have to say that most countries have chosen and they joined not because anyone force them to reduce production. Most of these countries, they will be taken active measures. What about the remainder . Who will make up to get to the 600,000 day target . It is important to understand that the thousand barrels a day was not the only possible result for us. There will be countries that are possibly join the arrangements. And i think they would most likely be able to achieve an overproduction that is higher than the 560 which we spoke about. Thing is thaty the agreement is open. There may be others who would join in. What is important is that the doors are open. And that a decision has a decision has been made. And now have a framework to join. The Saudi Oil Minister says he is willing to cut even more. Maybe below 10 Million Barrels a day. Would russia cut more than 300,000 . At this point, we have signed the deal for six months. That is the first stage. This extends the duration of the agreement. But we will be monitoring it closely the effect on the market with countries and we will make a decision where other agreements are necessary for the completion. When does russia begin their curving . I think that is the first cut. The first stage of the cut. He will be held tuesday in january. Theuld like to say companies are quite well aware of what they have to do. By this is a voluntary step which the companies are taking, they understand the benefits of this deal. And they understand that the deal is in place and they have agreed to it. It will take place starting in january. So as we speak now, they are taking measures. Mark that was the Russian Energy minister speaking exclusively to bloomberg. Lets bring in a correspondent here from bloomberg. The reference in 2012, when he said he would do whatever it takes . Isnt porton perspective. It is an important perspective. Almost 600,000 barrels a day. We are not exciting the saudis to announce anything new. And then going into be press he specifically mentioned the 10 Million Barrels a day that was previously redlined when they were not willing to drop below their position. The Market Conditions are prepared to go below. So yes, it really sounds very much like what mario draghi said in 2012 when he said, whatever it takes. And one of the quotes was exactly that. It is a what ever it takes. Mark it is a phenomenon isnt it . Yes. We dont know whether the deal will work or not. Remember, any trade under the age of 40 years old has not traded like this. Because these countries go together. So this is a new situation for many oil traders. Julie im curious also about the role of the u. S. In this. Because the Oil Ministers have said they dont think that they will see a meaningful uptick in production in the United States from shale. Goldman sachs that they are wrong to discount that. What are you hearing . And what is your analysis . The Worlds Oil Production represented, but we didnt have china or norway or canada. And there was no one talking for the u. S. Shale producers. It is an indication to hedge the oil. Isis have gone up. It is another opportunity. They will increase production. Expecting is are the increase. And that is a big bet. Industry, it will work in saudi arabia. Theyhey miscalculate ignore vast volumes of oil with shale producers in texas and oklahoma and other parts of the United States, then they will be in trouble. Aboutlso want to ask you big energy out of the u. S. Oforted likely appointment the secretary of state here, im trying to understand how this could change exxon and the Energy Industry by extension. It was a very busy weekend. We have opec and nonopec deals. I would put it this way. If you think of the oil industry , they were coming into double on the back of the Climate Change agreement in paris for the oil industry was put on the back loop. It was the lowest price and 10 years. But certainly, it was not a warm welcome. You see Global Oil Industries today. Approaching 60 oil. You have donald trump heading into the white house. And you have the potential for the industry with the ceo of exxon mobil becoming a senior officer in the United States. Laid this is clearly a massive turnaround. Mark a historic weekend. Good to see you. Julie still ahead, we will talk about the fed meeting. But first, Mitch Mcconnell is holding a News Conference because he says an investigation cannot be a partisan issue. You can watch the News Conference on the bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london and new york. I am mark barton. Julie i am julie hyman, this is bloomberg daybreak. Discussing rates since the first time with the u. S. Election. We will little doubt, be closely watching to see how they view the impact of a donald trump presidency. Joining us now is thomas costerg. One of the toprated forecasters on the u. S. Economy. Thank you for coming in. Obviously, not a lot of suspense here about the fed meeting this week in terms of what they are going to do. But could there be any surprises . Not just at the meeting but what they could indicate Going Forward . Are you bracing yourself or anything unexpected . Thomas the fed is a happy camper right now. Now, they will deliver what is expected. However, there are a few risks when you think about the donald trump spending plan and the other is whether it will move more than two rate hikes next year. I think that is what we will get from wednesday. Gives typically, the said a data dependent caveat. Is it most likely that in terms of the trunk fiscal spending plan, of which we dont have many details, that they will say take a wait and see approach . Thomas i think you are probably right. I think they probably want to say away from the limelight. So they will probably take a backseat and wait for more details on the spending plan. I think they are where its very difficult to have a spending plan and it will take a lot of time. Some are more bullish. And some are more optimistic. I think that is why they will not change their Economic Forecast too much. So for 2017 and 2018 why is that . That the key thing is Business Cycle is now showing signs of fragility in the housing market. It is leveling up a bit. And you are also seeing car difficult tod is see where growth will come from next year. It could still happen but it will take time so some of the thecuts could boost into 20182019. And deals will continue to escalate. Call on the fed funds rate is fascinating. Four in 2018. Is that links to the speed change coming to the fed in 2018 when donald trump can start changing some of the governors . Thomas i think people underestimate how the fed may change. Will be two vacancies. Janet yellen may step down as chair away from the board. Fed may turn more hawkish. And that means more rate hikes. And dont forget about the qe program. That will also shrink faster than what many people expect. By the way, what to say and what you get, the fed may be very different in 2018. Julie a good reminder. We also have talked about opec and nonopec this morning. How is oil feeding into your inflation picture . In what is already a rising inflation environment . Thomas it is currently 1. 7 . Chosen this low measure. And i think they will continue to look at core inflation. Think it could start to slow. I think oil prices are key risk. And that is something to think of. That could be something to watch. Be a reactionld function. Julie thank you so much. That was thomas costerg. On wednesday, be sure to watch our special coverage on the fed decision at 1 00 p. M. In new york and a 6 00 p. M. In london. Mark cant wait. Shares of Lockheed Martin are falling after donald trump tweeted that the cost for the f35s are out of control. We will take stock of the Weapon System next. This is bloomberg. Julie Lockheed Martin shares are falling today after donald trump tweeted that the f35 program is out of control. Onalso mentioned the Program Fox News sunday. I dont need a 4. 2 billion airplane to fly around. Especially when it is totally out of control because they have lost control of it. Things if you look at the f35 program, with the money and the hundreds of billions of dollars, it is out of control. Julie for more, we are joined by rob levinsohn. First of all, give us some background. What does the f35 do . What role does it play in the military and is it as out of control cost wise . Rob it is mainly designed as a Fighter Aircraft and it will replace the marine corps carriers and their some talks of it replacing the a 10 as well. It was originally estimated to cost the entire by for the marine corps up to 2100 aircraft. It was originally estimated at 200 billion but now it is estimated to be sure to be shy of 400 billion. A very expensive program. Julie is there a way to cut costs . It if itd replace wasnt the f35 rob i think cutting the program is hard to do. It isnt just the United States. A lot of other countries are purchasing them. Ash carter is in israel today where they will take delivery on of the 50 aircraft that they are buying. In recent years, a lot of the costs have gotten under control and stabilized. There are still performance issues with the aircraft with testing issues. Intoould extend out aircraft per year but it might actually drive up the unit cost per aircraft and spread out the annual cost. Julie we thought Aerospace Stocks surge. There seems to be this assumption that donald trump would be favorable to the dissent industry. Fundamentally change it . Or is this specific . Was the Aerospace Industry excited because he had promised significant increases in the budget but i am wondering now if he isnt just laying the groundwork to be tougher on them. He has big promises he has to pay for with the upper structure programs and tax cuts and spending on homeland security. He may be trying to give the pentagon a message that he is going to be tough on them. Julie thank you so much. Up next, we are talking silver. This is bloomberg. Ways wins. Especially in my business. With slow internet from the phone company, you cant keep up. Youre stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. Switch to comcast business. With highspeed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. You wouldnt pick a slow race car. Then why settle for slow internet . Comcast business. Built for speed. Built for business. Julie live, from bloomberg has World Headquarters in new york and london, i julie hyman. Mark and i mark barton. This is Bloomberg Markets. Lets check on our first word news. President elect donald trump possibly choice for secretary of state may have trouble winning confirmation because of his ties to russia. Senators from both parties are balking at the fact that he may nominate Rex Tillerson, who has ties to Vladimir Putin. Kellyanne conway spoke earlier on nbc. We want someone who is already accustomed to the negotiations. Because he is an oilman he has been in yemen, china, russia. Its not like Vladimir Putin and racks are intimate friends. Florida senator marco rubio tweeted that being a friend of attribute usen hoping for from the secretary of state. President elect donald trump is once again casting doubts on the cia. Ing that the agency said that russia tried to interfere in the election but trump tweeted that it was hard to determine who was doing the hacking. They are dismissing reports that Russian Hackers attacked males linked to the rnc. A federal judges record rejecting a request to recount paper ballots. Was looking to recount votes in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. A federal judge halted the michigan recount. The wisconsin recount is expected to conclude today. All three states were won narrowly by trump over clinton. The u. S. Supreme court has rejected a bid by Hank Greenberg to dismiss a fraud lawsuit. They refused to hear claims by the former aig chair and former aig cfo howard smith that federal Securities Law bars the case from Going Forward. Smith areand disputing charges by the state of new york that they use fake transactions to hide aig problems. Global news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2600 journalists and countries. 120 this is bloomberg. Julie . Julie lets go to abigail doolittle. Weve got a few significant movers . Abigail indeed, we do. Trading lower on the the proposed merger plan falling apart. Paul sweeney told our team just moments ago that he thinks there are two factors behind this. First, price and control. He also said, secondly, the new ceo presented at the Media Conference last week and was very bullish on the company, so perhaps he wants a chance to turn viacom around. It is a big job there, down 60 from the record peak. Speaking of turnarounds, chipotle mexican grill, shares are today higher on the news that the coke ceo is leading, putting the founder insult control. This stock is down about 50 from its record peak on the breakout of the e. Coli issue and it appears he has a big job ahead of him. 2206,into the bloomberg, we are going to see in blue revenues absolutely just dropping. Big decline in revenue growth. It looks like, julie, that the team is going to have to turn this one around by bringing revenue backup and perhaps the stock will follow. We will see if he can. Julie coleman avenue a gale, thanks so much. I cachet of documents from Deutsche Bank include what some investors call a smoking gun, proving that other banks were involved in a price rigging scheme. A ubs trader wrote going lower the Deutsche Bank responder responded oh dear, my boss just purchased some. Work that one. To told you i would bend it lower for you. Joining you on more but these transcript could mean, christian. Erthelsen we already knew that this was happening to some degree, but this gives us more granularity, more detail. Christian this is the first time you have seen the evidence in the case in a public showing. Thesche bank settled out of case regarding what was relevant, so what you are seeing now are all of these chat room transcripts, emails, audiotapes. Banks about 350,000 documents and 7500 recordings where you have traders discussing their positions to each other, agreeing to quote the same spreads on trades to clients, trading against their clients

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