Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close March 6, 2017

Mark have a look at european equities. The hue is read today. The lefthand column is your equities. Down for a third day in europe. Currencies are falling against the dollar in the second column, mixed fair for bond commodities is. The germands benchmark of roughly two. 8 shy of its record set on april 2015. It makes it 1 it makes it the european gauge thats closest to its record high. The ftse 100 last week hit its record high three of its been one of the big beneficiaries of this global reflation trade post the trump election victory risen by 15 since the trump of victory. The white line is the euro stoxx 50. Blue line is dax. Purple is ftse and the red is the s p 500. Withinso seen as a haven the European Equity space in case of spikes in volatility in the runup to the president ial elections in france and the netherlands according to jeffries and jpmorgan strategists says the global reflation trade still has legs in germany is one of the main beneficiaries. It has the most cyclical sector competition compared to peers and that 30 more cyclical the defensive stocks. Showing us the power of the bloomberg terminal. The difference in yield between the french and german 10 year. Arrowed by 16 basis points its rising today by three basis points. Former Prime Minister alain juppe says he will not enter the race the prim for the presidency. The yield spread narrowing just over 10 days ago. The yield was at its widest in 2010. It just finishing off with dont dread the fed. Investors concerned that high rates could spell an end to the gold rally could be in for a surprise. Gold in 2004 to 2006. Boolean gained 52 in june 2004 to june 2006. 5. 25 d raised rates to and from 5 to june 1999 to may 2000 when borrowing costs climbed to 6. 5 from 4. 75 . Mike mcglone says the fed is tightening when concerned about inflation. A Good Environment for gold which is often used as a hedge against inflation. Gold is up after falling in the fourth quarter. 90 minutes into trading day how is it looking . Julie i want to talk about oil because opec will increase its Production Capacity by about twice as much as previously thought. According to the International Energy agency which is just out with new forecast. This output increase will be led by an expansion in iran, iraq. Opec will raise its output capacity by 1. 9 Million Barrels a day of 2016 through 2022 with one third of those gains in iraq. Last year the forecast was for growth of 800,000 barrels a day 2021. 015 through an increase in production and that is helping send oil futures lower. New york trading down about 2 10 of 1 but we will keep on it and let you know headlines and any other developments in this oil chart over the next couple of hours. We are seeing a pullback as we are seeing a stalling out around record levels for the three major averages. Investors have to contend with the idea that the fed is likely to raise Interest Rates on march 15 as well as any Political Developments in the United States. A way to look at it in chart big rally we have the in the three major averages all hit records and become down from there. Hitting a wall in upward progress. Airlines hitting a wall today. Delta cutting its forecast for key revenue figure after the company said fares failed to rebound as quickly as anticipated so delta is down but american and ual down. There is talk about the effects of a new travel ban on travel to the United States and the Ripple Effect that could have on the travel industry. Mark lots to talk about ahead of a big week that will include the latest decision from the European Central bank, jobs in the u. S. More than 1 trillion four 6 billion of that is in the multiasset division. John, great to see you. How are you positioning for european political risks . Which has beenad narrowing but its widening after alan je how are you position for the upcoming netherlands and French Election . John we see it as a change in the political paradigm. A series of these events in europe. The netherlands that we are about. 5050 whether Freedom Party is the largest party. The others have said they will not form any form of government with him. The majority of people in the netherlands do support the euro and europe. Some pretty horrible headlines if he gets in but his ability to actually form a government is unlikely. At that leaves france. In france the risk is all around. The way central candidates have blown themselves up. The left candidate to the socialists. Limping along. They have steady numbers of votes. Its all about the middle part not blowing up. Macron matters. Mark are you making bets . Taking protection . John weve looked at the likelihood and size of the moods and we think on her globally diversified multiasset portfolio you would looking at losses of 4 to 5 area it means that the size of the catastrophe is not so bad that you need to bet entirely in one direction. You can bet for and against the event if you feel either side is overdone. We are the crucial period of on andappens with fil whether or not he gets a place him and everyone else post refusal to take a go. From that perspective were waiting for the market overreaction. So far it feels fair. Im not sure whether people understand how complex it is. Round will in the first given her core base. You have macron next. After that you have fillon. The leftist candidate and below him you have the communists. The real risks is that my lunch at this point hes got 25 of the vote. You can see the far left and the right actually takeover and the socialist parties could get squeezed out. That first round could be more important than the final runoff because in the final runoff there is the assumption that you could have essentialist cant touch a centralist candidate in le pen it will be in anyone but le pen vote. Vonnie fascinating in terms of characters and potential outcomes lets say but how does effectively investing environment . John before the election will of the focus will tend to be on one or two inch commence. We saw this with briggs it, with trump. Ahead of that is the french sovereign spread thats being targeted. The reason for that is because you talked about grabbing back sovereignty and legislative control really means leaving the euro on the monetary side and potentially the eu. Real question to whether you can call the referendum to do that because you wont have majority in parliament. Actually putting a lower risk on le pen than the market is. Event, if it was to actually happen and as we saw with briggs it and with trump the instruments were most impacted actually changed to some degree. In the u. S. You had this huge smallcap rally after he got into power but little reaction in small caps ahead of the vote itself. We think youll see something similar in europe. You would see a Fast Reaction in the stock market which we have not seen yet. Tenant percent to 15 off in europe. Five percent to 10 off in Global Equities and you would see a big move in the euro and the euro has not been impacting a big way. The euro, the dollar, stirring all trading similarly year to date with different patterns. Vonnie i was going to move on and say if you move to the United States and lussier rate hike next week what does that do to emergingmarket assets . Pressure. Dds to the the market itself is not comfortable with the idea that a rate hike is manageable particularly in the u. S. 80 priced now. The fed will consider the job pretty much done. In emerging markets the point of the moment is to have strong momentum so you need enough actual tightening of conditions to derail them. What would hurt them if the u. S. Curve started to back up and you have higher yields along the curve which to a degree is what yellin and others hope to see gradually. It more of that risk off environment that becomes a concern. It would be more inflation in the u. S. Leading to more expectations of rate hikes. A real unwind of that emergingmarket trade as the fed gets forced into new action. This one hike is not so much of a concern. More importantly, the number of existing undocumented workers. Around 11. 5 million in the u. S. If he removes 15 of those undocumented workers he cuts the u. S. Employee will work horse workforce by 1 . That we think is one to watch out for. Mark great to see you, john roe. On the travel ban weve got some breaking news. Vonnie apparently President Trump has signed a travel ban according to a white house official. A white house official says President Trump has signed a new order. We were looking for a revised travel restriction order which would exempt iraqis however we do not know what is in this. The white house official saint President Trump as signed a new travel dan. We bring our special focus on infrastructure this week to the program. Senior us is mike birch, ceo of a calm. This is bloomberg. Vonnie the white house says that President Trump has signed a new travel ban. We were looking for that to happen today. We will bring details. A white house official telling Bloomberg News that President Trump has signed a new travel ban. We see the podium. We will bring you anything that happens at that podium live is and is it does. President trump has called on congress to find 1 trillion in public and private funds to invest in americas roads, bridges, airports, and other projects. We are focusing on the president s infrastructure plan. We are joined by mike burke, om. Irman and ceo of aec do you anticipate 1 trillion will be put aside to spend on infrastructure at some point in 2017 . Mike i think a plan will be put in place before the end of 2017 for the 1 trillion plan and then it will be implemented over the course of 18 and 19 and forward. Vonnie how will this happen . Bipartisan effort presumably will it involve tax credits and publicprivate partnerships . Mike we dont know just yet what it will look like that we do know that it will be a bipartisan support initiative. We have seen broad bipartisan support across washington for an Infrastructure Initiative and i think it will be comprised of a host of different initiatives whether it be tax credits, private investment, we will see a wide array of initiatives that will come together to form an infrastructure platform. Vonnie how will any kind of renegotiated trade deals impact your business before you try to take advantage of this new spending and after that . Mike certainly we have seen challenges with some of the production facilities in mexico that were planned that are looking like they will be moved back to the United States. We are seeing some Movement Across the Manufacturing Sector. Overall the infrastructure plan far exceeds the amount of downturn in the Manufacturing Sector i should say delay in the Manufacturing Sector. This 1 trillion of infrastructure will not only help our business but will further facilitate additional manufacturing facility being built in the United States. You will work presumably with the commerce secretary. What do you know about how he operates that might impact how you pitch business or give your presentations to try to win business . Mike what we do know about secretary ross is that he was the coauthor of the infrastructure platform for the Trump Administration during the campaign. What we know from that, it was heavily dependent on private Sector Investment by trying to in sent private investment into infrastructure. It is something we have championed for a long time at ae com. We have seen publicprivate partnerships bring private investment to the Public Sector in australia canada, u. K. , across europe. Quite successful. Here in the u. S. We have not taken advantage of private Sector Investment and we see that secretary ross will push for that based on the plank in the platform. Vonnie we are hearing more and more about new funds being raised in money being collected in order to support Infrastructure Projects and also the interest in sovereign wealth funds in infrastructure particularly in the u. S. Be a certainnly type of project that will be funded by this type of money . Mike it would be a wide array of projects. The misperception is that these projects are only going to be for toll roads or user pay type assets. In fact it will be used for a wide array of assets. Laxre seeing projects at airport for monorail system. Consolidated rental car facility. Seeing it for social infrastructure like courthouses. We hope there will be a change in federal legislation that will allow private investment to be brought to federal buildings. Theres a wide array of assets that are amenable to private investment. We see that expanding over time. Vonnie President Trump has talked about using only u. S. Steel in relation to one particular project. Presumably be widespread. How do you feel about only using u. S. Steel . Is it even possible . Think there has been a little bit of backtracking on that recently. Some of the steel thats been purchased as foreign steel. I think it will be a combination. Theres so much assets that need to put in place. The supply of steel probably will not be satisfied entirely with u. S. Production but there will be a lean toward u. S. Steel and i think thats good for the u. S. Economy. Plus. you employ 100,000 where do you as a company come down on an immigration crackdown and on this new travel ban we are seeing signs according to a white house official we look at details later today on that . Mike we firmly support the Free Movement of people across borders. People ed thousand of 100,000 people it is imperative of us to ensure that brighteste best of talent to our projects and everything one of our clients matter where they are in the world. We are supportive of the movement of our employees across borders and we will continue to support that. Vonnie mike burke, chairman and. Eo of aecom thanks for joining us from our los angeles bureau. Aecom, up 18 since the election. Mark President Trump revised travel it prescriptions exempting the iraq is from the ban. We are live at the white house next. Vonnie breaking news out of washington dc, President Trump is said to have signed a new travel ban according to a white house official. A new band signed. We will get details. Kevin cirilli joins us from the white house. We know this new travel ban is not due to take effect until march 16 which gives almost two weeks for people to fully understand what this involves. Kevin a couple of differences from the first round of executive orders versus the one President Trump signed earlier this morning. Its only going to impact six predominantly muslim countries. Libya, and, sudan, somalia. Iraq has been taken off that list. Administration officials telling me they feel iraq has the proper vetting already in place. We areell you anticipating comments from Homeland Security secretary john kelly as well as secretary of state Rex Tillerson and attorney general Jeff Sessions to lay out of executive round orders will work. President trump not anticipated to make remarks. The first round of executive action this white house push forward was very controversial, of criticismirade coming from not only democrats but also undressed and several airports. This administration hoping to dodge that. Vonnie do we know if customs and Border Patrol and usciss getting any form of debriefing on what the should entail . Kevin i can tell you that this administration is saying it has had a much more fluid or they are trying to project that at least, rollout of this new round of executive order. Over the weekend in maralago chiefnt trump is strategist steve bannon have in a meeting with administrative officials beginning to layout that case. The initial round of executive orders shut down several weeks ago by the ninth District Court, that is anticipated to go to the supreme court. Whether or not this new round of executive action stunts that process or in any way works to reframe it remains to be seen. Already we are hearing criticism coming from democrats on capitol hill. Vonnie Kevin Cirilli reporting at the white house. We will have more from washington ahead. Mark take a look at european equities as we move to the close. Four minutes away from the monday session. Stocks down for a third consecutive day today. Investors focusing on this weeks jobs report, the fed, which is next week. The ecb which has its Interest Rate setting meet in on thursday. Have a look at the currency board as well. Sterling seems three the big loser today. The euro is up against the pound. Ways wins. Especially in my business. With slow internet from the phone company, you cant keep up. Youre stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. Switch to comcast business. With highspeed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. You wouldnt pick a slow race car. Then why settle for slow internet . Comcast business. Built for speed. Built for business. Vonnie we know that President Trump has signed a new travel ban according to a white house official. We are awaiting a press conference. New details on what that new travel ban entails. We know iraq is not part of the seven countries on the list the last time. We will get

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