Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open March 6, 2017

John cryan will speak to us at 8 15. Car consolidation. Psa is said to purchase gms european operation for 2 billion euros. And passive aggressive. Standard life is to purchase Aberdeen Asset management as the etf industry drives fees lower and lower. Howdy will because cuts have to be to make these businesses competitive . Matt we are less than 30 minutes away from the european open and take a look at futures, down across the board. You saw u. S. Markets down as well, the cash trade there, asian stocks as well. European futures are following suit. I think more interesting is the bund trade right now, maybe it is a rebound. We saw such a huge spike in yields on friday, up to 0. 356 . But now yields are coming back down and investors are getting back into european debt, 0. 343 on the bunds. Guy lets take you to the gmm. I want to focus on the second column. I want to show you the japanese yen. It is up this morning. This is because of what is happening in north korea and there is a safe haven bid there. There is the yen, it is up. But the euro is down against the dollar by 0. 2 . This follows friday and what janet yellen said and the fact that march is almost a done deal. People are focusing on the dollar. It is a recently quiet session, but the difference between the yen and euro is interesting this morning. Lets get to the bloomberg first word update with juliette saly. Reporter thank you. Former director of u. S. National intelligence James Clapper has denied Donald Trumps claim that the Obama Administration ordered wiretapping on trump tower during the election campaign. Explosivet contradict allegations by the president via twitter. A person familiar with the situation told bloomberg that donald trump relied on reports and conservative media, including Breitbart News. Japan has moved to the highest possible alert level after north korea fired four Ballistic Missiles simultaneously into nearby waters. Tokyo said three of the missiles fell into japans exclusive Economic Zone, with one dropping 350 kilometers west of the nations prefecture. Shinzo abe says he will launch a firm protest with north korea, and south koreas acting president called this a serious provocation. U. S. President trumps protectionist stance my propel asian, middle eastern, and latin american nations into alliances. This is according to the european commissions Vice President , who told bloomberg that trumps rejection of border tax threats are giving of this t are giving emphasis to the push for free trade. When there is protectionism, the rest of the world seems to be fighting back and saying, this is not our line. Reporter french president ial candidate fillon has again rejected calls to step down. The republican denied allegations that he used public money to pay his wife and children for carrying out fictitious jobs. Party executives have brought forward a meeting time tomorrow amid growing support that the former Prime Minister juppe should take his place. Juppe will make an announcement at 9 30 u. K. Time. And the dutch Prime Minister m ark rmark rutte has warned of c. Liberals are virtually tied with the antieuro and antiislam party. The vote on march 15 is europes first major electric test since the u. K. Opted to leave the european union. This is the opportunity to stop the trend before the german and french elections. Forthe netherlands to vote a policy that i want to deliver, of continuity, of making sure the successful policies of the last four and half years will be implemented over the next three to four years. Reporter global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. This is bloomberg. Guy thank you very much. Janet yellen joined a chorus of officials at the central bank with a more hawkish tone, saying a hike in march is more appropriate if the economy evolves as expected. Fed speakers are now in a blackout period into the march 15 policy announcement. So, all Market Attention is now focused on the jobs data, which will be delivered friday. The u. S. Is estimated to have added 190,000 jobs in february. For more detail, lets bring in our Market Strategist in singapore. In many ways, the deal is done now. My sense is these markets dont have a sense of direction. We now know what the fed is likely to deliver. Is that your sense as well . Mark 30 much so. It has been a really quiet morning. It is like a holiday. I think the price action after yellens speech really surprised people. After she very clearly confirmed a hike was coming, she was very hawkish, yields can lower and the dollar can lower. That slightly lowered people. We got the sense that people are waiting to see how the u. S. Market fares. Matt on the other hand, there is no shortage of news. Maybe the markets seem a little tepid this morning, but we have the Deutsche Bank news, the General Motors news. There is a lot going on. Do you have any sense we will be more movement later, mark . Mark i am sure we will. Marge is like a big month for overall macro risk. The only do we have the fed meeting, but we have the dutch election, the end of the debt ceiling suspension. There is a lot going on and of course come Angela Merkel will meet trump. A lot will happen that will get people trading. There is a temporary pause this morning. After the speech on friday, we saw that and we see more of this today. The positioning in the tenure u. S. Yields in the 10 year u. S. Yields reached the shortest levels ever last week. They have now taken some small profit and they are waiting to see what the next move is. Matt mark, thank you very much. You can follow mark on the bloomberg. Just type mliv on your terminal. General motors has agreed to sell the long struggling european opel unit to the psa group in a transaction valued at 2. 2 billion euros. This will create europes secondlargest carmaker. With us now is the head of Global Automotive research. Thanks for the time this morning. The question is, if this is a good asset for General Motors to get rid of, why is this a good up . T for peugeot to pick the hope. Is that opal is in better hands with the european partners. With ald be easier than partner who is making completely different cars in the u. S. , which is far less expensive. They have been a fantastic job of streamlining the business and the hope is he can do the same. U. S. ,having come from the i know that used car lots in america are on the point of overflowing here. This is not great news for growth in new car sales. How does the european situation look, concerning used cars and the possibility of new car growth . Europe is at peak profitability. It is a very healthy situation. We see car pricing, the average discounts. To give you a reference point, in germany, they are at 11. 5 , a very low level. Historically, they were up to 13 14 . Inventory levels are good in europe. Capacity is pretty high. Of course, there is uncertainty coming from brexit, the french elections and the german elections. In the is a risk to this deal. A market in europe might get worse over the next two to four years, but you have to take these opportunities when they come and on paper, this looks like a clean deal. Guy how much capacity to they have to take out of both businesses . Whatever the correction is right now. There is not any capacity that has to come out. Opel is operating, according to his numbers, on a 2 capitalization on 82 capitalization. Product also, the real actually will come beyond 2020, when it is time to converge platforms. But for the next three to four years, if they do the job properly to lift synergy to 1. 7 billion annually by 2020, the plan is right now not to take out equity. Int are they getting enough terms of future drive . Are they going to get enough to make it work for him . No, certainly not. I mean, the combined entity will still lack leading industry future content, especially in the area of electrification of power trains and conductivity. That will largely stay with gm. Especially the germans of course, pushing harder. Both companies are doing very well, running an industrial business at pretty low cost, especially peugeot here. It is about streamlining the opal business, but peugeot, gm europe, will not be the leader in innovation. Matt will we have any kind of presence of General Motors in europe Going Forward . Can i purchase a camaro or a cadillac in europe . Cant, you can probably ship them over. For the time being, that is it. There is no more gm in europe. Guy when we look back on this transaction, what will we take away as being the most important part of todays news. We are focused on capacity, technology, on whats happening in terms of financing. If you were to put your finger on one thing that would make this deal work, what is it . It is a fresh and clean start to an opportunity for opel operate with a european partner that knows how to get the job done. But the job is to be done by opel. It is a long journey, but a better opportunity than what opel ever have before. So, that is the opportunity. Again, it is a very clean deal. When you look at the pension, how it is all being funded and financed, i think, it is justified to look at this from a more constructive point of view than being too skeptical here. Matt excellent insight. Hank you for joining us coming up on the program, we focus on the french elections. We are speaking to a key advisor to french president ial candidate macron. Plus, we have a conversation about the strength of the labor market with the ceo of adecco. He is the worlds biggest employment firm. Later, we are speaking to john cryan, the ceo of Deutsche Bank. That interview at 8 15 london time. Find out about john cryans future, and that of Deutsche Bank on bloomberg. The open is just 17 minutes away. Guy welcome back to the latest french election. Macron is gaining support. Support for the independent macron has wanted amongst influential figures in france. With us, live from france, an adviser for Emmanuel Macron. Good morning to you, jean. Lets start out with the broad picture here. Macronsis mr. Economic plan different to the one we currently have with president hollande . Isnt there a danger this is just hollande 2. 0 . More well, hes much transformational as he says. He wants to change quite fundamentally the way the labor market works. He wants to shake up public services. He wants to put much for emphasis on skill. He has a radical plan for pension reform. That is not exactly continuity. Guy ok, you want to change a number of tacts in france. France is often perceived as a difficult place to do business because of the tax structure. Do you think the changes being proposed will change International Perspective of france . Jean yes. Well, several tax plans are wor th noting. One is the tax on wealth. It will now exclude Capital Investment into the economy. That will be essentially, a tax on real estate wealth. Second, the Corporate Income tax rate will go down to 25 , down from 33 . Third, the tax on capital income simply a flat tax on capital income. Quite significant changes. Matt is there any attempt to really distance himself from the swing at party, and little bit more towards the center right to take some of those votes away from the republican weakness here . Jean well, he did not start from the socialist Party Platform to sort of tweak it and move to the right. He started from his own platform, which grows on the idea that comes from the left and the right. These days, the fundamental debate, especially in this country, is not essentially about left and right. It is about openness and closeness and protectionism. It is about europe. It is about change. So, those are issues that, either way, are important to the traditional rightleft debate. Matt well Emmanuel Macron embrace openness, even for example, openness to trade with the postbrexit United Kingdom . You know, he will, he will be tough. Essentially, he has a very strong european agenda. He thinks that europe is part of the answer to a number of problems we are facing. The economic problems, the refugees, or defense and security. He puts a lot of emphasis on putting europe back on track, and back on a sort of positive agenda. Seriouss clearly, a setback. Be toe question will preserve the integrity of the single market. Guy absolutely. Lets talk about another negotiation you will have to have. If you want to create a eurozone budget, and eurozone finance minister, do you think he will be able to succeed on either of those fronts . Do you think there is any appetite at all for those things to exist in berlin . Jean well, the first thing i would like to say is that m acrons plans are fiscally responsible. He wants to comply with the 3 exiting procedure. That is the starting point for the discussion. That being said, he wants a eurozone that works better, that provides more stabilization, that is more able to cope with external shocks, that is more able to create prosperity for the citizens. We cannot be happy with the outcome of the last 10 years. The performance of the whole has not been satisfactory and so, significant reforms are needed there, too. Therell be a discussion with all partners, including germany, with what is needed. It is the duty of the next french president to put forward his own ideas about the reform plans. Guy let me just ask the final question. In your mind, is the plan that you guys are putting together actually radical enough . Doesnt go far enough to do what you think is necessary and are you not worried that it is not . If it is as radical that you think it is, to flip that around, do you not worried the parliament would stand in your way . There doesnt seem to be a sense that it is radical, maybe not radical enough, but it might not be too radical for parliament to accept. Jean what is important to note is that voters understand a mandate for something. Too often in france, the president has been given a mandate for something and has done something else, which is a recipe for a failure in many cases. I think macrons political identity is really reformatory. Once you get this plan from the electorate, you have much more political strength and much more Political Capital that you can invest in significant reforms. Now, you dont change a country in a day. You dont change it entirely in five years, but you can do a lot in five years. Matt jean, thank you for your time. Now, we are just minutes away from the open of trading here in europe. Lets get to some of the stocks. Clearly, Deutsche Bank is going to be a huge one. It was called down 10 from fridays close after the ceo decided to ask shareholders for another 8. 5 billion in the capital increase. We will speak to that chief executive officer, now one of three ceos at Deutsche Bank. John cryan, at 8 15 this morning. He appointed two deputy ceos. Guy absolutely. I think life look at very interesting as people try to work out who is pulling the strings. Aberdeen and Standard Life are coming together. In so many ways, this is reflective of what else is happening in the market. The likes of vanguard etc, are just driving fees lower and lower and lower. In order to be competitive, these guys have got to take costs out hard. And that is what we will see. Will mr. Gilbert be staying with the aberdeen business . I dont know. I think some changes are going to be coming. How they work up in scotland will be interesting to watch. It is a day of deals and a day of necessity. You have what is happening at Deutsche Bank, what is happening at aberdeen and standard, and peugeot asppening in well. Guy absolutely, but with peugeot, the market has had more time to adjust to this. 2. 2 million is the price. General motors will keep the lions share of unfunded pension liabilities. It looks like a pretty going deal. And the stock has already had a chance to move. 6 geots stock is up 5 or over the last week alone, since Bloomberg News broke the story. It will be interesting to see what it does at the open, guy. Guy absolutely. But as he was also saying, the opel is veryith much an operational story now. They will have to work hard to bring these businesses together to make this work. What is interesting, what he said as well is they are unlikely to lead when it comes to the innovation story, which will be so important as we move towards operating systems within cars. We have the 8 15 john cryan interview. That is going to be fascinating. Guy welcome. Let us talk about where we expected to go today. We think it will be a negative start for european equities. In many ways, it is an incredibly quite session out there. We are waiting for that meeting to come through from the fed, but such a large amount of corporate and news Corporate News we need to digest. Georgia is front and center for us. Is front and center for us. Aberdeen not far behind. Matt deutsche is the one that is most interesting for shareholders. They are being asked a year after they were told they would be to pay up again, and this time to the tune of 8 billion, the same figure as the annual loss Deutsche Bank posted in 2016 and in a year when revenue is expected to fall from the 2016 level that was already at its lowest level since 2010. Shareholders can be wondering why they should pony up end of the result, you can see shares fall. Expecting a drop for most of the major markets in europe. Already softening up and we have got the market up softerning paris as well. We are now effectively in wait and see mode. We have priced in the fact that the fed is going to deliver on the rate hike coming through. I want to see how Deutsche Bank opens this morning at how some of the airlines open as well. Let us find out what is happening below the surface. Thea im starting with gilt market opening happening right now as well. The 10

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