The zune the ballot will be held secret. Chinas trade gap widens for a fifth month. Is there anything President Trump can do about it . Matt i want to answer that question, but will value we are less than half an hour from the european open. Futures trading down this morning after a mixed close yesterday. Not much direction in markets the last couple of days and not a lot of direction, meaning futures are already, but not really significant drops. The asian pack down, as well. Booms threeday chart a little, in bunds, gain in yields and today it looks like we are coming up from the open here just a little bit. 0. 462. We have been in this rage with bunds a quarter percent to half a percent. We will see if we can get change in direction. What are you seeing on the gmm. Guy we have got the german trade surplus widening, but the chinese trade surplus widening out. That is something to Pay Attention to. In terms of markets this morning, solid session yesterday for emerging markets, todays selloff. India under pressure. The chinese ramon be, the story of the day as we see the trade surplus. With the u. S. , but fairly static. What will bomb trump do about that. The markets need to sit up and Pay Attention to this story. You have also got the german trade surplus that out this morning. Lets show you what else is going on around the world. The dollar a little off this morning, but not much. , a big under pressure trade on the upside of late. Barclays saying it will go back to 50. Pay attention to that trade. Watch what is happening with south africa today. That is a story to Pay Attention to. Whats going on in these markets. Incremental stories, interesting stories, we arent getting it is august, after all. The big shifts at the moment, but wait for that to happen. Sophie kamaruddin. Trade surplus widening for a fifth month in july as exports remain solid while imports moderated. 7. 2 in u. S. Dollar terms and imports increased 11 . Both falling short of economists suggestions in a Bloomberg Survey that meant the bloomberg widened. S japan has recorded a 36 consecutive currentaccount surplus coming in at 8. 44 billion dollars in june. That was supported by Global Investment firms and the trade balance that returned to positive territory. North korea has condemned the latest round of human sanctions and reiterated that it will not negotiate over its Nuclear Programs until america ceases hostile policies. Kim jonguns we seem said there would they would pay dearly for the sanctions. They said the Nuclear Program was necessary to avoid a u. S. Invasion. South Africas Parliament holds onh vote by secret ballot a vote of noconfidence in jacob zuma. A secret vote increases odds of being ousted because members can vote him out without risking jobs. Asob zuma is due to set down leader of the anc in september and as president in 2019, has defeated previous tests to oust him. In kenya, pulling is underway in the president ial election. The president is pitted against nga, more than 180,000 police have been deployed amid concerns there could be a repeat of the 2007 vote, which led to violence, fueled by division that killed more than 1000 people. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more. Han 120 countries this is bloomberg. Guy . Matt ill take it there, thank you. Federal reserve president james oler Neel Kashkari have reiterated that inflation is a problem. They said the fed should press on the shrinking its Balance Sheet. Here are the comments from two of the more dovish policy makers in separate statements yesterday. The plan is to allow it to roll off gradually over the course of several years. We dont think it will be disruptive to the markets. The markets expect it and it will be very orderly and should be a lowcost way of shrinking the Balance Sheet between more normal size. To behink we are going elegant going on this process, it is going to be very slow. There wont be a lot of impact on markets, but it will be the right thing to do and i would support getting going on this process. Matt lets bring in mark cudmore, mliv strategist. Are they right that the unwind wont disrupt markets or does that have something to do with that kind of talk with why it is hard for them to hit their target . Mark there was a large part of the market that does believe that this has been telegraphed for so far in advance, we have enabled to for so long, we knew the tapering was going to come, markets should take it in their stride. I am not in a camp. Part of the reason we have seen Global Equity market in recent years, we have seen risk assets rally is the fact there is excess liquidity, excess capital, too few returns. That has been provided by many global Central Banks, major Central Banks pumping extra liquidity. Fed hasnt been reducing the Balance Sheet. I am concerned by how the market takes this initially. It is true the Central Banks are pumping in enough liquidity. But i still think the markets might struggle a little bit. Guy interesting to see if they do, whether the december hike comes through and that is delivered at the back end of this year. I have the chart up on the screen big reaction in the chinese currency as a result of the trade data we saw coming through. What are the implications of that for the european session . Much it was impressive how dollar reaction to the data. This trade imbalance with the u. S. , important to note that while exports and imports disappointed expectations, they are still both high you run your Growth Numbers and that is a positive sign for the trade pickup. Maybe not accelerating as quickly as hoped, but it is still a positive sign. Overall, it appears chinese imports are still doing well and china may want to let you one sorease yuan increase purchasers have more power. A that is a positive sign for global risk assets. Matt lets talk about the rand a moment. What do you expect the currency to do in reaction to this kind of sick vote secret vote . Mark shortterm will be binary. If a motion is passed the rand initially. Violently im suspicious of how much that rally will last a how long. There are worries about whether president zuma will go easily. He might challenge the decision and refuse to resign. There is a real chance this will be smooth, even if the motion passes. Most likely, the motion will still fail. Votes, people could abstain and make it more difficult. Even though the ballot is secret and it is the first secret one on him, he has survived six that havent been secret, i still think he survives this one and the brand is in trouble later today. Definitely a thing to watch. Anyway,goes in december so i guessed you want to cause trouble at this point is something many will be thinking about. Mark cudmore, mliv macro strategist. ,ou can join the team easily smart analysis through the day on what is happening in markets. If you are a bloomberg customer, you want another function. Tv. Can followtream, you charts, functions, message us directly. I spun it back this morning to yousefs show and you have a great sidebar here that gives you all the functionality in charting we can use. You can also ask a question. Press the blue button, opens up a channel at bloomberg. Matt . Matt coming up, a huge day for south african democracy as the Parliament Prepares a secret no confidence vote on president jacob zuma. What will this mean for the brand . We will have the latest on the market implications. We will talk about kenya, as well, holding an election today. You are looking at live shots from nairobi. There is the vote taking place. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back. This is the european open. I am matt miller in berlin and guy johnson is in london. But skip the Bloomberg Business flash. Sophie . Sophie lifting returns at mega hedge funds including bison and renaissance. According to persons with knowledge of the matter and an investor document, viking and an equity focused find and renaissance are up more than 9 this year through the july. Bill ackman took the next step to shakeup Automatic Data Processing i nominating three directors to the companys board, including himself. Capital management said it owned 8 of gdp, also nominated two others. Google has fired an employee that wrote a memo blasting diversity policy. Wrote the noteo confirmed his dismissal saying he had been fired for perpetuating gender stereotypes. Dismissal, ahe representative referred to in email from the ceo that said portions of the memo violated the companys code of con duct. At 10 30 p. M. U. K. Time on bloomberg technology, facebooks in an exclusive interview to discuss closer and Global Culture and Global Impact. That is your business flash. Said to bempanies pulling for and staff in venezuela amid political crisis. Total has removed a small number. But stopped a little bit about what is happening here lets talk a little bit out what is happening here. Justin carrigan from dubai on what is happening. Much is this related to sanctions . How much is this related to employee safety and how temporary could it all be . Justin it could be a temporary situation if venezuela resolves itself quickly. That doesnt look likely. These are the measures you would expect from Multinational Oil companies in a situation like this. Attempt to have been an at triggering some kind of takeover quickly squashed yesterday by maduros military apparatus. So companies will react this way. I think the question is, how much the withdrawal of these types of personnel will impact Oil Production within venezuela and of course oil is its life led lifeblood. Matt how significant a move for Oil Companies . This is the kind of decision to take likely lightly. Repsol isats right, one of the companies that has withdrawn most if not all of its Foreign Workers within venezuela. Chevron, companies, have only withdrawn a handful of personnel and are advised to go who are already overseas to not return, they are cutting short contract and so forth. Yes, it could impact the companys production doubles. He would expect that, but overall, i dont think we will see a major impact. This is very much the standard procedure in situations where countries are going to this kind of turmoil. Guy lets turn our attention to east africa. You have people in line to vote for the kenyan elections, people stockpiling food because they are concerned about what is happening. Voter fraud a big issue going into this election. That ified should we be the result is contentious, we see violence in kenya . Is the key question because the history is not terribly good in kenya in past elections. There has been an outbreak of violence following the result. The key here is how close it will be. Thehe moment, polls suggest are prettyndidates a. If it is the close, we could see brought claims the vote wasnt for a recount and so forth. We did see a couple of elections ago, this spilled into violence that started to break out in a rather ethnic divide in kenya that resulted in some thousand or so people losing their lives. That is a very serious prospect if this were to unfold in that way. At the moment, voting is very peaceful. From what werisk are hearing and hopefully it will stay that way. Matt justin carrigan, bloombergs managing editor for emerging markets, covering a lot of stories for us. Africasay, south parliament will vote in a secret ballot on a motion of noconfidence in president jacob zuma. The anc leader has survived previous confidence votes and the news boosted overnight volatility in the ranch to the highest since early may. We are joined now from johannes berg. What can we expect today as lawmakers lawmakers vote on zuma. Vote do they typically vote secretly . In himrevious motions have not been done in secret, this is unprecedented. Voting in secret. The speaker of the National Assembly did say that the fact that some lawmakers have in intimidated in how they will vote in this motion is significant enough for it to be in secret. What can we expect from this afternoons development is we will see opposition parties, as well as members marching ahead of the vote. We will also expect to see the next few hours being very crucial when it comes to how lawmakers will vote. We know opposition leaders say they will continue to lobby anc members to vote for no confidence in jacob zuma. Guy given he is going later on this year, is there a sense may be within the party that they dont want to rock the boat and ande problems for the anc potentially problems out on the streets, as well . What is the situation within the party, what is the mood in the country . The anc recently came from a policy conference in july, just a month ago and it was there at this policy conference at the anc is a divided party. There are various factions there fighting within the anc itself and what is significant about this motion of noconfidence is president jacob zuma has faced two bids within the party to unseat him as the party president. They will be voting for a leader in december. Ancs unclear whether the caucus can rally together to defend president jacob zuma as they have in the past, seeing it is very torn and as the succession battle rages ahead of them, electing a new leader in december. Matt thanks very much. Morell surely be hearing from her in the coming days. Boost itsome, uniper dividend target. First, your stocks to watch. Up next, this is bloomberg. The open is eight minutes away. Matt welcome back to the european open. We are minutes from the start of trading here. I want to get you stocks to watch. Nipers want to watch, not just because we will speak to the ceo in a half hour, but because the company is boosting its dividend target to 25 growth for 2017. We looking at a boosted dividend in a company in the news, especially as we follow what goes on with these u. S. Sanctions. Uniper operates in Energy Network in america and europe and russia. Interesting company and in a geopolitical time. I guess it always wins, but especially for them. Guy thats talk about the coming underore pressure. It has been elevated as of late, but barclays calling it down to the 50s level. A pretty solid time of his yesterday. The chinese trade data, interesting as well. The german trade data showing a big surplus. Another company you dont often talk about, pandora, a Jewelry Company is denmark. 8 of the free float is out in terms of the Short Interest on the stock. They are talking about a challenging environment in the united dates and United States and they missed on revenue. That short position fascinating right now. A slightly gray day in london. A soft open expected. Volatility and that is just a backdrop for your. Here your gilt market and. Utures we are higher this morning. Gilt yield is unchanging at 1. 14 . Your gilt futures are up and running, we are a little higher this morning. Everything is a shade lower. The gilt yield at the bottom of your screen is unchanged at 1. 14 . There are a few big auctions in the u. S. That might shift the tone in terms of how we look at the overall bond markets as the week progresses. I am off to Digital Radio. Guy let me switch this over to index points and what you will see is that there is rio, in the mix. P we have seen iron ore prices softer this morning. On the upside, the oil Company Seems to be faring better this morning. You have shell and bp. We are going to speak with the cfo in just a moment. We are going to talk about what theappening in the u. S. And central bank starts to shrink its balancing. Joining us now to discuss this, the global head of fx strategy. First your take on what we heard the two Federal Reserve today or overnight. They dont want to see a hike and are confirming will not see that in september. Our eye ons to keep the Balance Sheet or continue shrinking the Balance Sheet even as inflation fails to meet if goal. Are those two things congruently possible . I would say they are. I focused on your description of the speakers. They are doves. Ofwould expect that type rhetoric coming through. Having said that, we do have cpi this friday coming out in the u. S. A decentoking at number of 1. 8 year on year. We would not see inflation is dead. We have seen a couple of months tick down. Wn it is particularly important for the bond market and for the long end of the bond market. You can see 10 year yields rise. This is quite important for the market. We would highlight there has been a strong correlation recently between u. S. Tenure and dollaryen. In the Foreign Exchange market, the best behind that is probably wonderfully. The centralsnt bank been able to get inflation to target. Any of the other regions were Central Banks are really sort of trading for it. Praying for us. I would take a controversial way of answering that. We have all been focused on the u. S. This year and we have seen disappointment, particularly as we have all best talked about aboutabout you talks talked about. The point i would make here is they are seeing deflationary risk diminished. This is key. We would suggest this link between the labor market and inflation is not actually dead. We may have seen three months of moderation and the rising tried that trend trend. The relationship seems to be alive and we are actually seeing hawkish surprises from those institutions. Guy have a quick look at the implied probabilities of Interest Rates hikes in the u. S. The market is pricing that, or is Market Pricing it correctly . Wait and see how the Balance Sheet goes down and wait and see. The reason i would say that