Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20140213 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move February 13, 2014

Investors and they say next year is likely to be like this year. That might lead to disappointment by investors. Lets see if nestle has opened. This is b. N. P. Paribas. We spoke to the c. E. O. Earlier on. Frances largest bank saying that it had a surprise drop in Fourth Quarter profits. They missed analyst estimates. Down 3. 7 . This is after it set aside more than 1 billion, basically subject to u. S. Economic sanctions. We have a lot of earnings. We have a forecast from china under export growth. We have the deal. What else are we watching . Larry fink. Says that a buying inundate emerging markets, they are going target way below what we had last year. It is the good old american consumer. Lets see last month. Flat rate on retail sales. The jobless numbers are the dominant theme on the market. You get our frort the European Central bank report from the European Central bank. Six Straight Days of gains. You know, recovery. I want to put the recovery in context. 3 billion was wiped off global equities. That has now been scaled back. We have recooped nearly 2 billion of that. It will come down to retail Sales Numbers in the United States of america. There are three companies lets have a look at them. A little bit of luxury. A little bit of banks for you. B. N. P. Paribas is down. 1 billion in terms of u. S. Litigation. The dividend missed as well. We were looking for 1. 75 euros. Coming in at 1. 5. He remembers, Fourth Quarter sales rer maze. Lloyds, you have gone through the top line. Fourth consecutive annual loss. P. P. I. Payment protection. 10 billion pounds. 10 billion pounds in terms of missed that blows my mind. Lets have a look at some of the currencies in terms of what is going on. This is the dollar index. That will all be down to the jobless claims and of course what happens with those retail sales and there is the aussie dollar, as you can see, francine, unemployment numbers hitting a 10year high in australia. Traders pare their bets. Thank you very much. Manus cranny with the latest on the markets. Were watching the advertising giants most recent sales. Rose more than 5 . Joining me now from paris to discuss the numbers is the publicis. Those figures were a touch disappointing because emerging countries such as china and india, a number of countries canceled advertising. When is it going to get better for emerging markets . Thank you for having me. Bonjour. The situation for emerging markets is the result of many aspects and they are very different from one country to another. If you look at what is coming in the next few months, you see that it is a very temporary situation which should not have any impact on our Growth Strategy for the future. In china, it is the result of a decision in the market where we have exposure in luxury good. The market has been stored due to the election which are are coming in brazil, there have been some demonstrations, riots, etc. , which has created a slowdown. The forecast for all of these countries, for 2014 is very good. China is expecting to have a growth of double digits. Brazil is about 5 . India is also in the region of 5 . It is a blip, a cloud, which has little consequence for the future. So youre saying sorry . Basically for the markets, youre basically saying that this is only temporary. Can you give us a sense of when the pickup will start again . Is the First Quarter of this year going to be fine in regards to your exposure to emerging markets . I believe in china it will be most probably in the second quarter. In india, it will be after the elections. You can count mostly on the second half and when it comes to brazil, it will be around the world cup, which will be in june. So it is everything will go progressively and we should not expect that all the emerging market will be back on the same schedule and at the same time. But it will be situation by situation. Overall, it wont affect your target for 2014 or your targets for this year . Our target for 2018, we plan to have the working extremely well. We have issued our numbers, as ticked allnd we have the boxes and we can tick every single box with a double digit increase in our net profit. Points added to our margin. 19 increase in our cash flow ith 900 million euros. The dividend will be 22 . So when you look at all of these numbers, you can see it is quite confident, our model is extremely robust. And we are absolutely on target and ahead of target on all of our objectives. Is retchts to the 38 of our last quarter nd it was above 40 . Organic growth of 20 in digital in the Fourth Quarter last year. So we feel extremely confident about next year, 2014. The industry lead to a level of growth in the region of 3. 5 of believevenues and we do publicis will be north of 5 particularly in the emerging market which has been already taken into account. All of this is something which is for us extremely positive and which level our Business Model is extremely robust. Give me a sense of i want to talk about the merger. We spoke about this tpwhreefl davos. Youre merging to create the largest Advertising Group in the world. The chinese authorities are taking their time to give you approval on this. When are you expecting them to give you to green stamp and will it be a green stamp or are their hurdles . Are chinese authorities looking at it in a way which is quite reasonable. They are taking a little bit of time. It is not something which is a big worry for us, because we ill have to find for the s. E. C. And the a. F. M. And you have also to note that out of 15 jurisdictions, we got already the agreement of 14 of them. So it is not something which is complicated. There is a lot of heavy work and everything is s, moving quite smoothly. The only issue that we have is it is taking a little bit more time that we anticipated. We have been quite aggressive in how we were looking for the closing of the deal. It may take one or two more months, but this is not something which is really very important when you look at what is at stake and merging two operation s of this magnitude, building the largest operation ever in our industry is something which is far more important than losing one or two months. All right. Interesting. Mr. Levy, thank you so much for joining us today. The publicis c. E. O. There joining us on the phone from paris. Now to talk about his view, Jim Mccormack. Thank you so much for joining us on the program. We were just talking to one of frances biggest chief executives. We were talking about the advertising world. A lot of times, this is a proxy for world growth. They struggled in the emerging markets. Is this temporary . I think the emerging market picture is nowhere near as bad as people seem to think. Particularly if you look at the equity markets. If i look at valuations, it seems to be the markets pricing in earnings, seems pretty unlikely given that developed Market Growth is if you look at allocation, we talked about Central Banks. It seems to be steady as they go at the moment. Possibly earnings and valuations. We still have this blip. What is your concern . I think the main concern for me this year is u. S. Inflation. Now no one is talking about it. It has been pretty tame. There is every possibility that continues. If u. S. Inflation starts to pick up and moves toward the feds target, then i think the market is going to have to contemplate the fed starting a tightening cycle. It seems a long way off. Where do you see inflation from . Japan . Japan is clearly an issue but in the u. S. In particular, you have got Wage Inflation starting to pick up slightly and we think it will pick up more this year. You also have a drag in the last year from both housing and medical care costs that probably will not be there this year. It is not going to take a lot to get the core p. C. And the u. S. Moving higher. We talk every day about the fact that it is not going great bewere still growing at a nice pace and at least were not in the eye of the storm. That is not what the markets are focusing on and yet there is so much Political Risk out there. In europe, there is a lot of interesting things to worry about. Growth doesnt seem to be one of them now. Growth seems ok. Were not worried about banks and what the a. Q. R. Will mean for banks this year. Clearly getting a very deep look into Bank Balance Sheets can go either way. I think the biggest risk in europe is o opposite of the risk in the u. S. Inflation. It is a much bigger risk for markets than people realize. Thanks so much for now. Well get back to your favorite industry picks. Rio tinto, the worlds second Largest Mining Company said its costcutting plans are paying off. Jon ferro has more. It delivered a 10 increase in fullyear profit. It is big for ree rio this morning. The layne in spending the Diverse Capital expenditure are gone now. The c. E. O. Has cut over 2 billion in costs for the company. Hall fed exploration spending. That is what was done lift profits this morning. Is it by more than expected . A bit of a buzz about this, how big the dividend might be. How much they are paying to investors. It is slightly above expectations. A 15 increase in the dividend. Something that Deutsche Bank called for. The question mark hanging over them and so much for the Mining Industry as well, the biggest contributor for rio tinto is iron ore. China imports about 60 of global iron ore output. Rio got a nice little pump. The price was up 15 over that period. China showed no signs of backing away from that period as well. It is down 10 this year already. How that plays out will be key, not just for rio but for the other miners as well. Thank you very much. Nestle reported sales growth in line with estimates this morning. The company said it sees a challenging year ahead. Ryan chilcote has the latest. How will this move affect sales . They reported sales growth of 4. 5 for 2013. That was back in line with expectations but it was their slowest growth in four years. What i think investors dont like this morning is they say next year is likely to be a lot like the past year. The issue really is how do you get away from the Slower Growth that appears to be a constant issue now when it comes to food sales . One way to do that is, for example, a maker of skin products for acne and skin cancer. These are issues that are unlikely to go away any time soon. It is a Growth Business and likely to be a Growth Business in the future. That acquisition where they got what they didnt already have from loreal is a sign in the direction they are going in. It started a couple of years ago, buying Biotech Companies in the United States, one makes an alzheimers drink that is flavored. Another that makes food for depression. This is a way to diversify themselves. There appears to be this issue with food globally in terms of sales growth. However it is all about scale. Nest sli a company that does about 100 billion worth of sales a year. Altogether these new businesses is a few billion dollars. To what extent is packaged food a Growth Business . If you look at the developing economies and nestle, it looks like package food is doing ok. People are getting richer in the developing world. They want more protein. There are not that many refrigeration states. So canned food does well. If you look at developed the developed world, it is a different story. Capital markets that put a note out saying they think there is a secular shift in the United States. As people bounce back from the recession. They dont want canned food on the wealthier end of the equation. What they want is fresh, natural food. So that is something to watch because the numbers for the United States, at least, missed when it comes to nestle and it will be interesting to see how much this is part of a larger thank you so much. Still with us for a few final thoughts is Jim Mccormack of barclays. You were saying your biggest concern in europe is deflation. The u. S. Is inflation. How much do you look at earnings . Earnings today were quite disappointing. Yeah, i think in europe, we have had a very disappointing quarter. It is like waiting for people have been waiting for the earnings for a while. If you look at the typical lags in nominal g. D. P. G. D. P. , you really should expect earnings to pick up next quarter. If that doesnt happen, then the consensus view of european equities should be going up. It is going to start to challenge. It is not a surprise yet. Youre actually worried about a correction. If you were asked, where do you put your money . We have already had a correction. It could be bigger. Macro ould but given the back drornings Central Banks continue to be a support. I know people talk about it but it is less easing. Generally speaking, Central Banks are support. I dont see a very strong case for a major correction in equities. You still think u. S. Equities are less expensive than they seem. The valuations are so much higher than the stuff we get here in europe. On a country by country basis if you take the u. S. And realize there is a lot of high p e sectors in it, the overall valuation looks quite stretched. On a sector by section sector basis, it is less stretched than people realize. Europe is an opportunity, emerging markets are an opportunity. People have to believe that the Global Growth picture is going to start turning into earnings. Thank you very much for joining us today. Jim mccormack. Coming up on on the move, the biggest deal of 2014. Details of comcasts 44 billion bid for rival Time Warner Cable. Stay with us. Were on the move. Welcome back to on the move. Im Francine Lacqua here in london. Now here are some companies on the move. B. N. P. Paribas posted a surprise drop in Fourth Quarter profits after setting aside more than 1 illion for legal provisions. Subject to economic sanctions. Net income fell to 127 million euros. Cut its fullyear profit forecast, citing declines in china and government clampdowns hat are hurting sales. Renault posted fullyear earnings that rose nearly 60 . The Company Forecast 2014 sales and operating profit will increase. U. S. Cable giant comcast is said to have agreed to acquire Time Warner Cable in a deal worth 44 billion. Here with more is our markets editor manus cranny. How does this deal stack up . It is huge. It will leave comcast if it goes through, the sole king of cable hill. It is all about size. It is about content and then you get to squeeze the customer for higher prices. Is it only for the u. S. . It is a global deal. If it goes through, francine, it is going to be 44 billion at 159. When Time Warner Cable rebuffed the charter group, they rebuffed them at 130 saying we want 160. Bang, in they come, comcast does the deal. This as we understand is a little bit of a shock. You want to think of the size of this. When you read some of the numbers, wow, 30 million viewers. 30 million video veers. A day. That is what you have the potential for. You put comcast and Time Warner Cable together, that is what you are going to come up with. They might pick up a few viewers. About 3 million. Getting over the regulation hurdle is going to be one of the tough issues. Just read the lambings times. They are scathe degrees, l. A. Times. They are scathing saying this is not in the public interest. This is not in the public interest. But they are still going ahead with it. It is home in the shareholders interest. This is the kind of deal that has ramifications all across the world. I look back at some of the stuff that has been written on bloomberg. There is a line that goes like this. If there was a theme tune, if the cable business had a theme tune, it would be jaws. That heavy pounding music, that ensuing threat which is coming, which is consolidation. Were going through a whole new paradigm in terms of how high content is disseminated. The cable operator gives them more scale which puts pressure on price. On the content provider. Im going to squeeze you. Im going to squeeze you on price and then on the other side if it is beautiful con theant youre selling to me, im going squeeze you, the customer. The disruptor is the netflix. The distribution methodology that we have. This traditional model some say is fundamentally flawed. Manus, well have plenty more on this story. 44 billion. Quite impressive. Manus cranny, our markets editor. Coming up, the Prime Minister risks the collapse of his 10monthold government at the hands of his own party leader. Well break down the drama coming up here on on the move. You can follow us on twitter. Ma issues in at manus cranny and im at flacqua. Well see you in just a couple of minutes. Welcome back to on the move. I am Francine Lacqua. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. Lets check out how the markets are doing. This is what the indices are at, the ftse down 0. 5 . The cac and the dax are also down. Overall, these indices are retreating. We have a lot of companies from bnp to zurich reporting earnings that missed estimates. We had a couple of data out china is now targeting export growth. Is slightly below what we had for 2013. This is a look at the currencies. Lets have a look at where we stand. Bit,ropping a little basically stocks dropped. Watch out for the swiss franc, also the dollar. These are the Bloomberg Top headlines. The Chinese Government is set to be targeting export growth. 7. 5 this year, that is a lower ta

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