Unveiled later today. Lets head over to guy johnson. Good morning, guy. To bes budget is going long on politics, short on economics. To be honest, the chancellor is going to conduct a series of tweaks today. It is about setting the agenda for 2015 when this country will go to the polls. It is about the narrative in advance of the general election. , it willare saying really be about the cost of living. It will be about social mobility. It will be about jobs and there will be some economic things were well have a bit of a push when it comes to generating more experts exports for the british economy. This is about filling out the Political Landscape in advance of the election. The labour party will have something to go at here but probably on the economic front, very little because the chancellor will be able to announce that the british economy is basically back to the peak of 2008. The unemployment is definitely coming down and for the first year and quite a few years, we are going to see wages rising faster than inflation. Inflation back down to the bank of englands target. Wages are likely to exceed that and that is something you will be talking about. On the export front, we will hear more about mentoring mediumsized company. The chancellor has himself a target of 2020 of doubling the exports of the u. K. He is struggling with that so we will see a bit of a push. This is about politics and not about economics. The numbers are going to look a little more rosy and the chancellor is going to make it clear that the recovery is fragile and could be blown off word tof the electorate decide to opt for labour. Fitsm not sure where this in, but we understand that new pound coin is in the offering. To be honest, i think the fact that this is going to be a big deal today probably tells you about the fact that this will not be that much in the budget. Yes, we will have a new coin in the United Kingdom. Moment subject at the given the Scottish Referendum on independence but we will see a 12 sided coin. Apparently it will be harder to counterfeit because counterfeiting coins apparently is big business. Back to you. Looks a littleit bit like the threepenny. I look to you, because you probably do remember. It was around from 19371971. I dont know anything about it. Stay with us. They will unveil the budget. Do not miss it. Joining us now is the head of bill. Management long on politics, short on other things. Am one of the individuals they were talking about. Is that it isent 14 months before an election. The potential for surprises and giveaways is there and particularly folks that have a Living Standard that are focusing on keeping inflation rates down, supporting middle income families, and particularly through the task allowances to maslow. Whatever will be given will be modest but very focused. Neutral overall . Neutral. I see things like antiavoidance measures getting funded. Theres the possibility of the use of some of the funding from public sales of the interim banks as a source of funds. That has issues. The big picture is that the path of austerity has to be held to bring we are still looking at a debt excluding the purchase of dividends and post office at about 5 of the gdp. It still looks large. It will stay that way to 2018, 2019, which is many years after the chancellor originally happened he would knock it down clearly, short of america we are not going to get the objectives accomplished by the end of this part. The other part is we do not see the office residing revising its estimate. That is the key issue. It really limits the room for maneuver. In terms of growth numbers, a lot of people are expecting a lift, a reduction from the heart growth numbers. Assumptions have been cut as well and it is the nominal growth projection that really matters, not just real gdp. The borrowing numbers will probably be reduced modestly by rebuilding or 4 billion. Some people are suggesting that in terms of medium term , it is moretations of the budgets responsibility to come up with it then those are weight on that unemployment is coming down in the short term which means in the mediumterm, you have to make effort assumptions about spare capacity. I think we have already taken , conservativeing view about the level of capacity in the economy. Probably a little ahead of what the bank of england had submitted recently. It is just under the outing of the february inflation report. The story is, we are looking at a number of years of that limits the options that are there. To have a big impact on the macroeconomy. We are on a glide path. The estimates would suggest that the newtill looking at parliament and is there going to be another politicallydriven philosophy to reduce the government and the economy . That is a different story. Theyre going to cap theyre spending. Is a different program. Postelection, we will be looking at it again. A very different context. A year ago we were talking about a triple dip recession. Is growing faster than our g7 counterparts and could do and 2014 as well. Part of the budget is focused on sustainability. We have been talking about the export center. Sector. There may be something in the small and Medium Private sector as well. Credit access John Longworth said earlier that the target of one trillion pounds in exports by the end of the decade is a little bit lofty. It is difficult given what we have seen in terms of the limited impact of sterling has declined. He was saying that away from the budget, what is important for them at the bcc is to keep Interest Rates low so we do not push sterling out and damage exports. The bank and the government are concerned about those prices. Our view is that sterling will rise because what is happening elsewhere as well as what is happening in the u. K. , particularly with the bureau. U. K. Rates are house viewed. We dont like the u. K. Equity market. Why not . It is a defensive market. The way we look at how we manage money, it is hedged. We dont get the right the benefit of a rise in sterling. It impacts a ftse 100. Our preference is for the midcap sector. It is basically half the indexes into the economy, nominal growth is resilient. There is am in a activity. The u. K. Middle standard has been prospering. Those companies that depend on overseas earnings, should they be wary . 25 of the sector of footsie that is and ftse that is influenced by those. , thank you. Ill up ahead, we will look at the budget announcement by going inside the Housing Center with galley yard. Time for todays company news. Toyota has reached a 1. 3 billion settlement to end a u. S. Criminal probe into unexpected acceleration in its cars. The settlement could be announced as early as today. The carmaker recalled more than 10 million vehicles for problems related to unintended acceleration. Toshiba plans to sign at least three partnerships to manufacture Lighting Fixtures in europe in the next year. The partnerships will allow toshiba to sell asian leds in europe. An has nsion pl google is bringing its Android Software to smart watches. The project android where will extend the Android System to wearable gadgets, including watches. Welcome back to cart welcome back to countdown. The budget announcement today, lets look at the u. K. Housing sector. At acarney gave his take school in london. We should not be triggerhappy, but we have the tools and we are well armed to address those risks. Governor mark carney talking about the tools the bank of england has at its disposal to tackle the Housing Markets should it feels necessary. There have been concerns that we are starting to see in over cheating overheating Housing Market or it market. They have redeveloped county hall in westminster. Theyre currently developing over 3000 apartments here in london. That is galliard homes. Lets talk to the managing director. Is a concern we are seeing risks build up in the Housing Market. Are you concerned . No. Currently we are delivering less than 50 of the numbers and everyone elses numbers. We need to be delivering. We have a massive undersupply in the market. The headlinegrabbing numbers that are making headlines in newspapers are very small amount of the market that are selling at high prices in a very small part of london that is being sold at prices that are not reflective of the market in general. There is a big demand. That is the demand story. The problem is that there is not massive supply right now. It is restricted desperately by planning. Across london is the city of london. , 33ave 33 separate boroughs separate planning departments each with their own strategy, each with their own and ordinance in several issues that are important to them. To make it impossible any significant inroads into the big numbers that we require. I believe that the government needs to introduce something similar to the Olympic Delivery Authority which managed to take a whole chunk of london and build all of 3000 apartments and everything was required in terms of an stretch archer in terms of infrastructure in a short. Of time. Need it over the authorities. Something with statutory powers is the only thing it will make a significant difference. Choose laces across london have existing transport links and build toll houses around those notes and that is the only way we can make inroads. Focusing on the demand side seems to beion, it demanddriven rather than supplydriven. Theyre focusing more of those policies towards new homes, but nevertheless it is still a demandside of the equation story. All the strategy is put in place to support the demand and is very successful. That is reflected in the headlines for you see talk of overheating the market. People can buy and are buying homes. The reality is, the supply is not there. While the headlines are being in london in terms of prices and overheating in the market it is not the reality. We need 42,000 new homes a year in london. Lester we have less than 18,000. This year will be 20,000. You cannot have 20,000 shortages in your target numbers every year and expect and overheating. It is significantly different. In terms of the strategies that are put in place to buy and the like, that has not taken off for london because i have not been required here. The london market generally works with people selling off a plan, developers building in advance and selling off a plane. Although strategies in terms of help to buy, they are aligned with mortgage offers. Theyll expire in six months. Companies like ourselves that sometimes so years in advance, it does not work like a. Like that. Areow many homes of these sold to London Residence and how many of those outside the u. K. . It varies. The central prime london is predominantly sold outside of the u. K. Zones two34, there significantly higher london owners. We launched one first and london and sold 215 apartments on one weekend. They were wondering londoners buying in london. They are keen and open. We will leave it on that note. Thank you very much for your thoughts. We will have much more in advance of the budget today. Very much a political focus in the story coming out of the chancellor today. He is definitely repositioning the country for the next general election. Were going to hear a lot about exports so we will hear about that later in the morning. Back to you. Is 719. Me in london we will be back with ubss u. K. Head of investment on what to more expect from chancellor osbornes budget speech welcome back to countdown. I am anna edwards. And i am mark barton. Lets chat about the budget bill still sitting, still chomping at the bit weird bill oneill from ubs Wealth Management at the bit there. Bill oneill from ubs Wealth Management. Give us your assessment of the Housing Market, focused on supply and demand. The knee has predominantly been the focus here in the u. K. The need has been predominantly the focus in the u. K. Surveys are suggesting that there are a dearth of structures to sell. If you look at the national level, mortgage approvals are running at about 6 of the previous peak. Net secured lending per mark net , repaying mortgage payments, is limited. You cannot talk about oval conditions at the national level. There is a constraint of the supplier. Ell. Just of structures to sai buyense is that hard to structures will be with us for a while because it is seen now as a way of closing a gap in the market to basically create again, to seek out or incentivize construction of homes. Do you think the treasury and the bank of england seem to be on a collision course over housing . My sense here is that preelection is going to be more difficult. Our view is that is going to be up to 10 yearend inflation by late this year using the measure we look at. Bank findslty is the it hard to argue the fbc that there is a threat to stability. If it is a threat to the london market and the aggregate numbers do not so as long as the lending statistics dont look bubbly, it doesnt matter necessarily whether the price is the dynamics of the london market are different. Dominated obviously by capital interest. The moving and sterling is much more relevant. Hard toional level is talk about a bubble condition. Give us your thinking right now. In terms of an inflection point, i think the key story is around europe. If you do not get an earnings recovery in her in europe, there is something seriously wrong. There is an anomaly. Earnings should be better. Look at against u. S. Performance. Europe should be better. With the recovery economy particular, the data accelerates and you do get some upgrades in European Growth this year. We should see topline growth coming through man funnel down and improve margins. The financials at the Banking Sector that is responsible for about 40 of this peak, i think there is a much more benign environment there through 2014. The Foreign Ministry as saying the crimea situation should be resolved through the legal framework. What is the threat to investment at the moment . Is it an escalation of the tensions . Is it to do with the slowdown in china . The slowdown in china is extremely important. Our perception is that the economy is slowing but from the point of view of a perspective on growth internationally, it is a market collapse rate of clearly there is an issue around leverage in the economy and we think that will be addressed through selective defaults that are actually clearly sending a warning signal but also confident and explicit backstops provided by the authorities. Movement in the rmb will put an offset. Toare seeing a slowdown 7. 14 . Is International Environment improving for china and it begin begin to the cup to pick up. We do not see a collapse in growth. That is the key issue. Thank you very much. Bill oneill,. Toyota pays over a billion dollars to settle a criminal investigation. Welcome back to countdown. Lets get right to jon ferro for your ethics check. The fed will be a big focus for the fx market. We could see 620 per dollar for the first time in 11 months. Chinese central bank is still guiding to fixing things lower. Everyone is talking about it. It is the one to watch. Everywhere else, dollaryan. N. Dollarye more dissipating things out of japan. A trade deficit for the last the 20th straight month. The japanese currency is down and exports have seen limited games. Imports have gotten more expensive. Time for the top headlines today. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its break decision later. One had by janet yellen. Headed by jenny on. They believe they will taper the stimulus by 10 billion. The total search area for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight has included to 2,750,000,000 square not ago miles. Square a nautical miles. Says he has no intention of splitting up eastern ukraine. He signed an accord that set in motion plans to annex crimea, reversing what he describes as a historic wrong. Eu leaders meet in brussels to discuss further sanctions against russia. Toyota is said to have reached a deal with u. S. Authorities over a longrunning investigation. We have more on this developing story from tokyo. Craig, how big a number is this for toyota and what is the significance . Is 1. 2ettlement billion. That is pretty comparable to a settlement that we never reached with owners that toyota reached with owners for a vehicle that had more than 10,000 real 10,000 recalls in 2010. It is a big number for toyota. They have more cash than any other company in the Automotive Industry and it is one they can certainly handle and move on from. Put this in context in term of the biggest recalls we have seen in the Auto Industry if you could. The one that everyone is paying attention to as of late has been general motors. They have recalled more than one million vehicles for an issue with models that are quite a few years old. It is related to be the mission oftch the ignition switch the models. It has been blamed for a dozen deaths. For toyota, the settlement we is withing about today u. S. Regulators. Those u. S. Regulators now have to turn their sites to gm so that it may be related to todays settlement. This investigation goes back quite a long way. The recalls happen a number of years ago. What has it done in the period to the sales and reputation of toyota . Started recalls really in 2009, continued into 2010 and really reached a fever pitch in 2010. Of 2011, justng as they were recovering from that, that is when they were hit by the tsunami in japan. Later that year, the floods in thailand. They relinquished global sales leadership to gm that your. They recovered and have been able to reclaim leadership in sales and their quality rankings have really improved. You look at consumer reports, you look at jd power and associates, and they ranked toyota among the best ranked brands in the Automotive Industry for quality. Thank you very much for joining us. To continue our discussion of the economy here in the u k ahead of the budget a bit later, we are joined by a man who has the business perspective. And chiefcofounder executive officer of Cloud Computing company. Good morning. Your first set of results, you joined aim in the last year. You had a busy year. Revenues are improving. Youre not quite profitmaking quite yet. Talk