We will try to give you a subtle explanation if i can. The dax is up by a third of 1 . The dovish side of the fed, the sentence that rates will not rise until a considerable time after qe ends. The problem is nobody knows what a considerable time is. Equities in europe playing catchup a little bit. Why was the dollar higher . Ot of people are looking 1. 375 compared to the estimate back in june. Forecastan official over rates will be. Those dots do not mean anything at all if you look at them individually. In the fx market, smart money. , this is where the Swiss National bank wants to protect the currency. They do not want to appreciate anymore against the euro. This is a little respite for the Swiss National bank. The ecb has gone negative. Will they have to eventually . The eurodollar has been interesting play. You saw a stronger dollar off the back of the fed. Up across the board. Month. 3. 63 on the the big one today is the result of that first option. At 1015ult comes out u. K. Time. What number is considered a disappointment . What does it mean for the straight question mark if the banks dont take up the money in the first option, a bday cake it in december maybe they take it in december. You and i will be all over that one. Will they have to buy more abs . It is an interesting question. There arent that many to buy, which is a bit of a problem. The venn diagram on this one is fascinating. Thank you very much. Back to our top story. Scotlands referendum on independence, pulls across scotland have opened. They did so in our ago. Anna edwards is in edinburgh following the story. Rather murky a edinburgh morning. If you are over the age of 16, registered to vote, you get a thisn the future of country. If you are british or from the European Union or the commonwealth and living in scotland, you get to vote today. 4. 3 Million People have registered to vote. Polls have been open since 7 00 a. M. A simple majority is what is required for one side or the other. That is the way the voting works. The polls will remain open until 10 00 this evening. The votes will be sent to 32 counting centers and those 32 county centers counting centers sent their numbers to the chief operating officer. She will have a fairly nervous 24 hours. Here are some interesting facts. Where they will be voting, locations like schools, community centers. This time, we are learning that caravans are being used. 52 voters are registered a caravan. Some very enterprising hotels are offering cocktails whilst you vote. Offering bacon sandwiches afterwards. Some churches are offering prayer with your voting. Whichever way you like to vote, there is something for everybody. 2 00e expecting to hear at in the morning. It could first comment gaelic and then english. We will be scrambling for dictionaries. The first results around 2 00 a. M. Breakfast time is when the Electoral Commission says we will get the official results. And i will be covering the story anna will be covering the story for us. I am sure she will not be partaking in the cocktails. That is what we are watching. Edmund, i have the ecb. A vaguely know where the ecb is going. I have all kinds of things at the moment that are on my risk radar. Prior toys those for me prioritize those for me. It is a big question. I am not sure you should be invested in equities right now. Why not . September is a tricky month generally in this month is proving to be no exception. We have had quite a big cell of bonds. A big sell off on bonds. There is greater uncertainty over the outlook for bonds that normally would be the case. Normally, september is a good month for bonds. This month has not been. Of front and center is the fed upfront and center is the fed. If you look at the ecb , what can they buy . This is a market they need to create. That will take time. Shrunk Balance Sheet has 33 . Will be back in a couple of minutes. Still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them. Too many who are working parttime who would prefer fulltime work. Too many who are not searching for a job, but would be if the labor market were stronger. That was janet yellen. A dovish tone after yesterdays policy meeting. She maintains a commitment for low rates for a considerable time. When rates start going up, they might be going up faster. Our markets editor was speaking to the chairman of the worlds biggest wealth manager. He joins us now from zurich. I was surprised. We chatted and he said the risk is that the fed is too far behind the curve. The two schools of thought that are involved in the Federal Reserve. When you look at last night announcement and the good old dots, the dots say it is all over. Rates are going higher. He had is take on timing and timing is everything. When the fed talks about rate hikes, there are two models. Some advocate early rate hikes so they dont have to go fast. Others say, lets wait a bit longer until the recovery is assured. The constant debate is going to add some uncertainty. Is that Janet Yellens biggest risk . My personal view is the feds policy is not in the danger of going too early. It faces the danger of going too late. The u. S. Recovery is more firmly established that many investors in the market think at the moment. Is also for u. S. Prices higher. My preference would be earlier moves. I am not a policy maker. Will Monetary Policy that is myn the United States view is halfyear or one year out. It will be firmly established independent of whether they will move earlier later. What is the impact on europe and on the competitiveness of europe . That is where i see some additional impact. Everybody has their sense of timing on this. Something thek is markets are not pricing and. The elegant the elephant in the room is litigation risk. If you listen to my interview earlier, it is simple. You need sovereigns to jump on board to make Mario Draghis policies were. We have a lot to get through in terms of the fed. Nice hotel. This is right up in the hills behind zurich. It is pretty amazing. Privacy is key. Over 200 Family Offices from around the world. Europe is trapping trumping the u. S. Billionaires, 155 new ones. 7. 3 trillion. They come together and they talk. What an amazing forum. Talking to one another, doing deals and coming up with ideas. Europe trumps america for billionaires. Good news all around. Much. Nk you very edmund and to went. Edwin. The great rotation has started. Another great month in september for bonds. I think it is a little bit premature. From what we said about janet yellen, she will stay on hold for quite a bit longer. It is all about the Employment Situation in the u. S. And there is no wage growth. Underemployment is still rising. On top of that, the labor partisan Participation Rate is lower that it has been in decades. All of that will keep wages and check. That is what she is betting on. On the inflation picture, food prices are very low. If one of those two were to kick up, maybe she would have a bit more of an issue. Your strategy you would be buying bonds . I think the selloff is wrong. Go rs dont want to why not . Valuations . The historical precedent . I think it is the aftermath of the financial crisis. It still hangs over all of us. A lot of investors are holding a lot of money in cash and if they are not Holding Money in cash, they are holding it in bonds. U. S. Cash levels of households in deposits are higher than they have ever dan as a percentage of gdp in 20 years. Do think there is a point to which that changes . If you are sitting there in cash and thinking what will i do now, your opportunity is bigger in equities. Talk about the inflation story. Talk about where we have come from. The opportunity has got a be bigger. Has got to be bigger. Yields do not go much lower than where they are now. I think they can go a bit lower. Stocks are words that. Oil and gas has been under pressure with brent down 15 . They are starting to bounce. About Corporate Credit . Is at the Halfway House questio . You talk to guys in the credit markets and they are getting a little nervous. The highyield market has to be worried. We have had five years of the highyield bond market. We are at the point where people are buying all sorts of issues, which normally would not get away. A record few numbers of conditions. Some of the yields have spread. Frankly, i would rather go to equities. Of what willu make happen with the market here in europe . Mario draghi cannot get traction with the scale of the economy. As an investor, can i get in on a trade . Room for quite some time the guerrilla in the room for quite some time. Is there a way of making that trade work . Whatever comes onto the market will be pretty much instantly. You have to look at who will be issuing those assetbacked securities. You have to be in equity holder. That is the problem with the bond market. Many areas of it are a liquid illiquid. Always nice to see you. Joining us from asset management. I want to show you one stock that is on the move this morning. It will spin off its Material Sciences division. . Hat is that doing to the stop the conglomerate discount is starting to unwind a little bit. We will see you in a moment. Welcome back. Lets talk about bayer. The company has announced plans to shed its plastics business and focus entirely on life sciences. Lets bring in hans nichols. He joins us from berlin. What are they up to . How much could this unit be worth . 10 billion is what analysts value this unit at. We will get a real sense for what this plastic business is about. They are clearly wants to be er trulyused bay wants to be more focused on pharmaceuticals. , they will bet left with pharmaceuticals and some seed and crop businesses. Arechallenge is if you just waited on pharmaceuticals, you are no longer a chemical unit. You have to be dependent on new drug development. That is a risky proposition. It can also be a very lucrative one. Trading up just over 4 . Details of thece first of eight of its low cost loan programs. Much ofquestion, how the 400 billion euros will be taken up by the bank. Of expectations, what are they . Where is the market thinking we will be . Marketrvey showed the expects the takeup of 150 billion euros from todays announcement. Yesterday, the ecbs preferred measure of Inflation Expectations hit a record low. An indication that the market does not expect this to be a major game changer, may be expecting some additional support. That is what inflation will be starting five years from now. Attentionems to pay to it. How this interacts with other things, the ecb has a whole bunch of policies. It has the Bank Stress Test story. Interact withight those policies . The other measures complement this in the sense the recent rate cut will write the funding cost the lowest it has ever been any announcement that the ecb will be buying assetbacked securities suggest to banks that if they loan out this money, they will securitize those loans. In terms of the asset quality review, the results of which we will have shortly, this is a bit of an unknown. Worry if they will be sting the tightest if they are seen if they will be stigmatized if they are seen borrowing through this program. That might deter banks from borrowing today. Fascinating to watch and we will cover it a little bit later on. I guess you have to drive the demand story as well. David powell joining us from bloomberg economics. Welcome back you are watching on the move. I am guy johnson. In 30 minutes into the trading day. Sense of looking for a direction you will not get one from the equity market. A few stocks on the move that generally not doing a great yield. Our European Business correspondent is caroline hyde. She is at the touchscreen. I will be talking about the sexy world of pumps and compressors. Try to contain yourself. They might not float your boat but maybe 6. 5 billion in sales will. Sulzer is on the rise. The reason they want to build together is they will bring together the world of humps with the world pumps with the world of compressors and turbines. Tap intod be able to what is a booming industry of shale, oil and gas development. Unconventional types are building the stock. Bayer rises again. 4. 1 . This is potentially a new shares sale. Plastic is the material science unit that will be spun off. Material science unit will potentially be sold into the market. They have been looking into options since april. It will all be lifesciences and drugs that are humans, and crops. Crop chemicals and farmer as bayer is up 4 . On the downside, one of the biggest laggards is heidelberg cement. Heidelberg is significantly exposed to europe. They say the trend is looking greek bleak. Those are some of the stocks to be aware of, lets talk about the headlines. Scotland is voting today on a referendum for independence. An ending would see of a union that has lasted more than three centuries. The Federal Reserve is sticking with its plan to keep Interest Rates near zero for a considerable time. As unemployment and inflation approach their targets. They say it could take to the end of the decade to reduce its 4 trillion Balance Sheet. The European Central bank will announce the results of its first targeted Lending Program. It is hard of a package that mario draghi says will reduce the Balance Sheet. We will see offers ranging from 100 billion to 300 billion euros. Lets get more perspective on the ecb easy policies. That stick to our conversation. Has somek europe stability risks and the central bank has to be careful. The central bank is buying a broad set of assets in the market always distorts all prices and favors in particular the prices for phonic rod asked that they buy in a targeted fashion. Reserves are being transferred to the Central Bank Boss credit sheet, it is a risk. Mario draghi has been debating with germany and france in the government is whether any potential losses are backed by government guarantees. Double e a war and warrantable case that would say that if france is on his back thereically speaking, is a chance for fiscal latitude . I dont think there is only if you are in a favorable starting position. The attitude at the moment is that governments are focusing on fiscal expenditure and not fiscal consultation, and my view is not the right roach. Approach. I dont see that. What we need is much less fiscal expansion and more reforms. Come back toot gross with quick wind. Everyone is looking for easy fixes. Europe has to do the hard work, do the reform and as a result we will regain gross. Without the growth foundations would be shortlived and unsustainable. Think it is the right thing to go for. Of ubs. The chairman he could have been in Mario Draghis chair but decided not to. He certainly wanted to, but he didnt. Lets talk about one of the other big stories. The roadshow is over but the journey may have just begun for the chinese online retailer alibaba and its investors. The company will price its ipo later today and it is on track to be one of the biggest in history. Ryan, you were on the roadshow yesterday, in terms of the questions people are asking, what are they . We have been to nearly all the investor meetings over the last two weeks. One of the concerns you hear is the issue of Corporate Governance. It is twofold. People are concerned that it is just 30 partners that will determine the majority of the board. 2011, there was one incident when alibaba transferred alley pay ali pey to a Company Controlled by jack the founder of alibaba. They came to an agreement but it underlined underscored the issue that if you arent on board with what the board is doing, you have to resort to legal recourse. That is not easy. The second issue is that this is one of those variable interest entities, or vies which you sometimes hear about. The chinese have been using them since 2002 lift on u. S. Stockings changes stock exchanges. Is that the control over the underlying assets of the company to a board or management of the company itself. This is something that mark mobius was talking about yesterday. Theou have a beef with company you have to go to court in china to challenge it. Not is something that might be possible. You dont have a good chance of succeeding. One of the reasons why hong kong there, u. S. Ipo investors appeared ready to pick it up as well. When they look at the price to earnings, the future earnings relative to its peers, like the other chinese tech companies, they think it is a bargain. A bargain. There are conservatives around theaba and concerns about Corporate Structure and whether or not we will see a repeat of the pitfalls. Lets talk about those issues. Will talk to philip thats philip betz. Alibaba, you look at the opportunity and the press. That exists out there. I buy the stock i dont get to control my money. Im handing responsibility. In terms of risk and opportunity how do they balance out . I think overall you are looking at a Successful Company with a long track record in ecommerce which is probably the best way to monetize the internet. Exposure to china. It would be hard to ignore the fundamentals of a strong growth story. A strong growth story. How do i balance that with concerns of Corporate Governance . Do i have to apply a discount of the stock and say i have to get on board, i need to be exposed. We will apply a slight discount to the stock. Maybe you take a different view which is to say, perhaps i dont come in at the ipo and i watch how the markets get used to this play and see what discount the market applies, then come in three months, six months or 12 months. Of us know howe the market will take such a big company with slightly different vehicles. This Corporate Governance issue is not unknown in the tech sector. You can look at google and other companies to be aware of the fact that there are different rules for this sector. Andanies are used to it investors a