Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20141205 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move December 5, 2014

They revised september to the highest and leaving germany to a dire situation as we previously expected. What is everyone expecting . What the ecb is really doing and yesterday was such disappointment, draghi not bringing ahead the stimulus that had been wanted. Saying putting it off until these january two reassess the situation as to whether we need fullblown quantitative easing. Many feel he is just trying to get his ducks in a row and convince the rest that this is the course of action necessary. 1. 5 . Up more than clearly a lot of appetites out there. We are seeing the euro pretty much trading while flat. Oil continuing to trade lower at the moment. A full day of the klein on oil. Of course that continues to put pressure on prices. Lets have a look at the market for you. Maybe a little bit of arise in yields for the 10 year. Appetite to buy into debt by three basis points and spain as well. Appetite for risk once again being shown and bond buying. Also of course is this really being shown. That would mean well start to see more bonds being brought by the ecb. Balfour beatty up almost 1 , they reject that approach. One billion pounds not good enough for the ppp assets. They say leave it to us if we complete each asset we will get far more money and it is about synergies. The question is will john lang Infrastructure Fund come back with a better offer . Reassessingy are the portfolio value. They are stellar profits and sales. Up 55 and they say the return to normal Market Conditions that are on track to pay their dividend and they say please just keep things steady. Yearve an election next and where concern about any uncertainty and we need property taxes intent, nudge nudge toint, nudge nudge stay where they are at the moment. A lot of people batting away potential wooers in the property sector. They do not want the money coming from qatar they say the Qatar Investment authority offered 2. 6 billion pounds but not enough. They won 381 pence at least. That is the market opener and 39 looking at a high of points in the dax up by almost 90 points. 0. 9 higher this morning. But get back to the ecb. Investors may be a little bit disappointed with mario draghi because he did not announce sovereign qe yesterday. Another voice says that if draghi does announce wanted of easing in january it is not enough. In my view they will start doing qe by january or february of next year but it will be too little too late. They should increase the Balance Sheet and i feel they will increase it over two years and that is not sufficient. And as mario pointed out in his speech, qe work in the u. S. And backloadede you had Fiscal Consolidation and in the eurozone you have frontloaded. In the case of japan the first round was monetary and fiscal. You need to have fiscal stimulus and the eurozone in addition to monetary. If you just have monetary it will not be enough. On both counts the eurozone will come too little too late. And breathe. A classic rant. Were joined now by Richard Jeffrey the chief Investment Officer or he helped us to see 30 billion pounds in assets. Too little too late even if we get an q1 . Or is it the answer . The ecbthe problem for is that they are not convinced that quantitative easing will be as effective as it appears in other places. Other people would dispute how effective it was in the u. K. For instance. I think the issue for the eurozone is not so much whether quantitative easing would work it is the impact of the euro on the zone itself and i think the deflationary trends we are seeing and parts of the eurozone particularly the southern eurozone are more to do with the euro and less with the conditions by the ecb. Its a debate certainly worth having a foreign investor a really outcome does not matter, maybe it is just what they are going to buy and what it means for asset prices. And in that context you see a story like is that it would to centralbank members of the ecb fate you something under consideration for january, qe is coming, is it just bye bye off the back of it . Asset markets like injections of liquidity that for the inflation comes it shows through asset prices. Others in germany are concerned about the inflationary consequences of quantitative easing. When you look at the ecb to question the credibility you see him downgrade their forecast for inflation . Two weeks ago said they need to soak Inflation Expectations and what fast and . And then turnaround and said we will reassess next year . Broughtmight have quantitative easing at an earlier stage that would lead a looking at distinctly different Growth Prospect that were the case. Clear that individual countries have very specific problems and a lot of them will not be solved by monetary policy, the saga markets. Your negative on bonds, from a valuation perspective why . It is a fundamental valuation basis, if you look at german 10 year bond selling on the yield of well below 1 that is discounting virtually no nominal growth over an exceptionally long. So in a sense those on markets brought forward all the good news that they expect to see from quantitative easing and doubled up on that. I think it is difficult to see an investment in european zone bonds rewarding the investor more than an investment in equities. Looking at the 10 year spanish yields how it 1. 5 , why cannot they go lower . Euro shortterm returns and shortterm gains and exceptionally tight margins and some of the original peripheral markets compared to the German Market but is that rewarding sufficiently for the additional risk . Still very difficult issues that have to be addressed and structural issues that have to be addressed in those economies. I dont think there is a sufficient risk premium. What is the risk . Has Mario Draghi Anna stte the risk with his commitment or is that a has mario draghi banished the risk with his commitment or is that a false security . There are risks around government finances and risks in Financial Markets with the biggest risk of course that the eurozone is facing is that it any decenttch recovery and we saw the at bundesbank this morning which is brought down growth estimates for this year and theyre forecasting only 1 growth next year and that is down from a 2 forecast. That is the big risk that we do see this. In the eurozone. We have to wrap up this conversation and talk about payrolls. The big jobs number is 230000 and unemployment expected to remain at 5. 8 , is it a similar isntto hear in the u. K. The wage growth that will be a concern for the fed . I think it probably is a concern if it were to remain at this level but i do not think it will. I think there are signs that they are tightening in the labor market in the United States and it is pushing up wage costs. The question is how does the fed react to that. Allow wagebably growth to pick up somewhat and i think it will be clicked key in its reaction function in the second quarter. You can see the wage growth picking up progressively and that will prompt the first tightening in the u. S. Policy. The numbers come out in a few ands time, when i sit down look at the jobs report what is the number youre looking for . Headlinesys look at first. We look at the number for total payroll growth and the numbers below the surface and see where that has been generated. Tone and overall regardless of todays figures the tone of the market is quite strong and the u. S. Economy has gained momentum in the second half of the year and prospects of growth next year are reasonable. The u. S. Has the greatest potential. Richard jeffrey, thank you for much for joining us. The bring you our exclusive interview with the rio tinto ceo. What is standing in the way of the megamerger that could make the worlds biggest Mining Company . As we had to the break here is a picture of the markets as we speak. Are in mainland europe. The happy talk about the potential that we may get an ecb bond buying planned next year. We will be back in two minutes. Welcome back, lets get to our exclusive interview with the chief executive of rio tinto. 2014 is been a to mulch was year for many miners including rio tinto. Oversupply of iron ore has sent prices to their lowest since 2009. Over the past five years and economic slowdown in china has forced several miters to cut costs and adjust targets and some investors think the bleak picture makes rio right for a takeover. Says advances by others, namely glencore will not affect his plan to get more cash back to investors. Glencore cannot bid again until april under ceo under takeover deals. At the end of the day it will be a decision for the board and not me personally but clearly when you consider this, there will be a whole raft of things that you look at in terms of how business our business and their business. . You think they come back in april . I have no idea. Thats a question for tony hayward enough for me. A you are a man who likes plan forward, are you planning for that event . Are you putting business on a footing were needs to think about this as a possibility . The most important thing is we have a strategy and a game plan for how we run the business. Stick totance that we that game plan and do not get distracted or deviate or do some thing silly because we notice somebody hollering from the grandstand. That is not the way to run a business. Boardonfident as is our that our strategy to deliver Business Improvement and our strategy to deliver growth and to materially increase shareholder returns is in the very best interest of shareholders. Joining us to talk of up this topic is a man that knows something about mines, Bloomberg News jesse and the guy in front of sam walsh, guy johnson. Is this a man that was to do a deal . No. Clearly not a man who was to do a deal. I think he is dressing it up in a number of different ways. He says it will come down to value if they come back in april that he also does not feel these businesses are a good fit. Hes trying to come up with a number of arguments that fit together. Shareholder stick with us we have a longterm plan to deliver you strong returns that putting these businesses together does not make sense from a cultural point. Even if they do step up they will not get a good deal. We could talk about the clash of culture all day and sometimes that exists everywhere and does not make sense. From Glenn Burke Glencore his is yes we are a trading firm but yes thats why we want real and thats why it makes sense. Isnt that why . Theres a strong case that by combining the businesses they can user training expertise around the world to make a dollar a ton for iron ore. With 360 million tons per year that is a lot of money. Consideredat the message theyre putting out there they want to highlight the cultural differences is a key hurdle but sam walsh says at the end of the day it is going to be driven by value and what theyre saying essentially is that if you want to buy us you have to pay up and we do healthy premium to overcome these issues. The guy glencore is saying look at the price of iron ore and where it is heading, shareholders in rio, if you want value out of these mines, we are the guys to deliver that value. Sam walshs argument will be that this is a cyclical is this you do not ingest invest or the shortterm but the longterm and these prices will come back. We have been in this business for over 100 years and we know about cyclicality. Wave and at some point youll see lower prices and higher prices. If you want to invest dont do it for one year but 10 years. Youve met him, you know the man, he would take offense at being called a shortterm investor . Would, he hasly been in this industry for 30 that and it is fair to say in 1974 mark rich founded marc rich and coin the early 90s and it is a fundamentally different approach but at the they have a relationship with customers and clients and have driven a lot of business based on those relationships. Just wrap this up this sounds like an addition for a clash in the spring of next year and they are talking up a clash of culture and sam walsh saying were better alone and glastonbury saying were better together, mr. Glastonbury gets what he wants, will that be a pretty high price tag . Jesse is able to answer this better than i am, is he able to afford it . Can he paid a high price that sam walsh wants . I would do a deal but at a in an premium and industry that is plagued by overcapacity and low prices, can mr. Hayward and mr. Glows and berg say we will pay you these premiums, i dont know. Takeoveral invented a from bp in 2008 and two dozen nine with a 40 premium so that give you a guide to what they are expecting. It may not be that high but i cannot see any scenario where glencore would pay that premium. Missile be a big story next year as well. We would back in two. Welcome back to on the move. Thanks but no thanks that seems to be the response from the owner of Canary Wharf Group this morning, both announced approaches for their assets are too low, here is more with caroline hyde. I was start with balfour beatty. In august they value one of their units at one billion pounds and four months later someone comes along and says ok heres one billion pounds and they say, know you wanted now, that means you significantly undervalue the value of something we valued at the same value i am lost. Or they are playing hard to get, its like a game of comehither. June 1. 0 5ht back in billion was how much they valued. Their ppp, is infrastructure and hospitals. Along comes john lang and they say we will give you 1 billion and they say no thanks actually because of the current market and because of our knowhow which has not been vindicated that much the cause of our knowhow we should pursue these assets to fruition so weve actually built that hospital and then we sell off the asset we will get more bang for our buck. They do seem to think that because of the recent sale of assets they just sold their u. S. Unit for a premium they think it is time to reassess the value of this particular share. That they think the market has turned for the better when a lot of economists would say things have flattened down and some have say some would say it has turned down. Songbird whicht owns Canary Wharf Group feel that not enough money is on the table for their effect either so 2. 6 billion pounds is how much the Qatar Investment authority have put up saying this is what we will offer you for this particular asset. As no to say it comes surprise that they turned it down, they are advising their shareholders not to go at the deal because in november they said we think it is 381 pence per share which is . 90 above where the qataris are offering. They already made clear that they wanted more for this asset. I was down in canary wharf looking at the miniature models they have and i do think they want this asset and what more types of business there. See that theres going to be a bit more growth so 2. 6 billion, no thanks. Playing hard to get these corporate relationships are so complex. Ozi, membererk that . Said to have abandoned Nicolas Sarkozy. More on that story after the break. Back. Come im Jonathan Ferro at bloombergs European Headquarters in london. A nice little push higher this morning. Ftse 100 up by 40 points. The dax moves higher by over one per by over 100 points. Ecb stimulus in january. We will talk about that and more. Now, three stocks to watch with caroline hyde. One of the german stocks popping higher this morning, positive news coming from the german factory orders this morning. Positive news coming from Goldman Sachs for this stock, united internet. Currently up almost 4 . This stock. , buy it is an Internet Provider in germany and they say the market share can continue to grow. Strong volume growth on smartphone use in germany. Pete an eye on united internet. Keep an eye on the Property Market in the united kingdom. Having had the news on stamp duty overhaul, Berkley Group up almost 4 . 55 uptick in profit. Their first half looks strong. They say there is a returning to normal market in the u. K. With good underlying demand. Please, keep things consistent. They are worried about uncertainty after the elections. To seest want consistency, particularly when it comes to property tax. Beatty, british builder, the biggest british builder. Once again, just batting their hand away from any approaches. They say, look, it is worth more than one billion pounds even though that is what we valued it at ourselves. They are going back to their mathematics. They think it could be that much higher. Maybe on approach from john lang. Shares up 1. 3 . Thanks very much, caroline. Lets get some top stories for you. German factory orders rose more than forecast in october. A full 2 more than analyst estimates. Small signs that europes largest economy is continuing to recover from that missed year. The bundesbank cut its growth and inflation targets for germany through 2016. Investors await the jobs numbers out of the United States which will cross at 8 30 eastern time. The u. S. Economy is estimated to have added 230,000 jobs in november according to a Bloomberg Economist survey. The rain expected to hold at 5. 8 . France at 49. 99 stake in its toulouse airport. Frances finance minister, the group will pay more than 300 Million Euros for the stake. Lhe government plans to sel 10 billion euros in state assets. France, as the state is selling assets to raise funds, French Business leaders are tired of criticism of an economy that has barely grown in the last two years. The Largest Companies have organized a forum to fight back. The paris banking on france conference is aimed at showcasing the friends the strength of the secondlargest economy. Era linktone on is there. What have you learned this morning . Good morning. This conference is all about boosting the image of france. The French Economy has barely grown in three years. Gdp is expected to rise just 0. 4 this year. The perception outside the country has been pre

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