Growth in g. D. P. For the u. S. In more than a decade, since 2003. Will that spill over to the rest of the Global Economy . Next year, dow jones, hitting 18,000 points. A record high. Stocks have been rallying since the middle of last week, since the Federal Reserve said dont worry about it. Well keep Interest Rates near zero for at least the first quarter. All of this good news could get tongues wagging in terms of Interest Rates will come down. Coming off that high dollar index. It has been a phenomenal performance that we have seen in the dollar index. Check that out. More than 12 . Clearly that is pretty Phenomenal Growth that we have seen in the dollar index. The best in a decade as well. If youre looking at the euro, clearly they have been seeing the flip side of that. The euro down 11 against the dollar year to date. Today a little bit of a pickup, about. 10 . They are heading for six month s of losses. Speculation the e. C. B. Might start to unveil quantitative easing. Keep in mind all of that. Now a check of how we are doing in terms of oil. Brent down. 6 . We have seen a bit of an easing up on prices. We are down on the trade today. Meanwhile, ruble is actually higher against the dollar. At 54. 19 at the moment. Lets have a look quickly at the stocks. A little bit of corporate data. A little whiff of m a for the ear. It did rise in u. S. Trading. Ryker is getting closer to striking. Santander is up. There are reports they could be willing to sell. Back to you. Caroline hyde running us through the markets. We went through 18,000 yesterday on the dow industrial average. Thats the number in focus today. It came after the u. S. Supported the strongest g. D. P. Data since 2003. The dow has gained about 1,000 points in last five days of trade. Is this going to set the tone for 2015 . Is 2015 all about bidding equities around the world . Well, lets find out. Lets go to zurich. David is the chief Investment Officer. Good morning to you. They have delivered this year for developed markets on the equity front. How much more is there still to go . I think on a relative basis, equities are if the only game in town as far as im concerned. There is still an upside but on a selective basis. I think the u. S. Outperformance has not been consistent for well over a year against the most dwoment developed markets. That may tire a little bit in 2015, but on average, i think equities, still, the asset class to hold next year. Lets take that apart a little bit. If im a known u. S. Investor, is the u. S. Still the place to be . Will i gain as a result as a result of the Foreign Exchange story and will that compensate me maybe for the lack of performance maybe vs. European equities . Where do i put my money . I think i would keep the money in the u. S. , but i think that the backdrop that is improved on europe. I think markets have disappointed somewhat in 2014 but i think strars better aligned for 2015, especially if the e. C. B. Is going to deliver what everyone is expecting in january, namely that they will start to expand their Balance Sheet more aggressively. Europe and the eurozone is the place to be. And then japan, where we think there is also some more upside. Market there closed up 2 points this morning. There seems to be some upside judging by the Market Reaction to the u. S. Story. People tell me, and i get lessons about this. They say you want to be defensive, if you dont want to take market risks, you need to sit in fixed income. How risky is that trade going to be in 2015 sitting in fixed income . Obviously to everyones surprise basically, 2014 was a good fixed income year. So the question is whether we can have another repeat. I think we have to be a little bit more delinchshating there. I think delinchshating. That creates a little bit of a risk. Since the u. S. Is basically the only major economy where rates are going to go up, also from a policy perspective, in addition to maybe the u. K. , i think the rate raise in yields may not be as dramatic as some people would fearened that means fixed income may not perform as badly as it could otherwise. How is the relationship between 2006ed income and equity marketsfixed income and exity markets going to develop . Does that start to reestablish itself a little bit, that relationship between fixed income and the equity markets . Us who isf any one of interested in the situation in the Global Economy and Global Financial markets, yes, that should reassert itself but it is only going to happen at a slow pace. Why . Because obviously the fed is only going to increase Interest Rate vrs gradually. It said last week it is going to be patient and i think that applies to the timing and the rate of increase. On the other hand, eck treasuries priced more after the longterm curve. I dont think that the longterm u. S. Dollar yields will rise very, very rapidly over the next 1218 months. Just one final wrapup relating to the oil sector. A lot of notes coming across my desk talking about default rates rising in the u. S. As an investor, how should i play this . How concerned should i be . Rates are around 2 at the moment. How big of a difference is that going to make to the Investment Outlook more broadly across a broader set of Asset Classes . I think we should differentiate once again. That obviously will affect some of the issuers, mainly in the u. S. High yield space. There are indeed some default rates that may go up. But there are a lot of winners due the lower oil price. I think the markets will as we enter 2015, focus on more of those. Stay with us. We need to carry on that conversation. Well get the russian perspective in just a moment. David staying with us in zurich. Lets check in on the equity markets. A bunch of markets are closed today. We have half days in other markets. Those that are open are rising this morning. Very, very Strong Performance out of the u. S. The dow at the 18,000 level. We priced the bulk of that yesterday into the european session. Spain up over 1 this morning. Were going to take a break, but up next, russia takes a step towards junk. S p says it is considering a downgrade as Vladimir Putin plans to bail out a bunch of lenders. More when we return on on the move in a moment. Welcome back. You are watching on the move. You are looking at the frobts of st. Pauls cathedral. Christopher wren being augmented by that tree. Beautiful scenes on the other side of the river. St. Pauls facing the river. It is kind of drizzling outside in london to be honest. Doesnt feel that christmasy. Fairly warm. A bit of drizzle. Not exactly the White Christmas that some were hoping for. Standard and poors has delivered a fresh blow to russias currency and the crisis that the country is facing. It is warned of cutting the countrys Credit Rating to junk. To find out what the details are, Ryan Chilcote is here. I brought the holiday cheer. Is that your Christmas Jumper . It is. Im trying to assimilate into british society. The Christmas Jumper. The christmas sweater. It doesnt have crazy drawings on it but it is red. Next year. Ryan bringing some christmas cheer. Step by step. Squash that christmas cheer. There is more than a 50 chance that russia will be downgraded to junk. You look at the yield now on russian bonds, north of 6 . Funny thing was it was about 7. 5 on the 10year dollar denominated bonds. A week ago, it is slightly improved. You look at the ruble, does anybody care about this potential downgrade . The ruble has been strengthening. About 1 better off when it comes to the ruble. It is stronger than it was eight days ago when we got to 80 rubles to the dollar. We have seen this before. It looks like the investors have already acknowledged this and priced this in. Now were getting the confirmation from s p s p that russia is in a tough spot next year. They are certainly in a tough spot next year. We have seen plenty of businesses having a few problems as a result of that. Im told cash is king in russia at the moment. How much cash you to make sure you can survive this deep freeze. Some companies are prospering. One company we have been looking at today trades here in london. It is an exporter so they get paid in dollars. Provides mpany that phosphates for growing crops. It held its ground, which is more than you can say for most russian stocks. But it is really popular among the analysts. Hey think stock is going to go up. Jimmy rogers is on the board. He has been buying stakes in russian companies. E is interested in phosagro. He likes it. But i thought i would give you a little bit of a contrary you can gets loans out of russia. You can. Particularly in the exporter space. Lets talk to david, the chief Investment Officer at a bank in zurich. Welcome back to the conversation, david. We have been talking about russia. How big of a problem is russia going to be for you next year in toverples the way you make your Investment Decisions . Um, i dont think it is going to be a major problem unless obviously president putin decides to escalate confrontation with the west. The rest of the story is actually well known. A potential downgrade has been priced in. I think russia is able and willing to pay its debt in 2015. Certainly the sovereign and the qua sinch sovereign debt is not a risk. R there may be some defaults from smaller companies. Two quick questions. First off, is there any u. S. Stock you would by under any conditions going into 2015 . A lot of people say no way. When you talk about increasing as an investor, increasing exposure to the eurozone stocks, you know, there has been so much talk about how the situation in company d uryous for injuryous for companies in western europe. Do you think this whole russia risk has been overstated . I dont think it has been overstated. There was a to some sectors in some Companies Whose ability to trade with russia is impaired and maybe impaired for the longterm but overall russia is basically the main link with russia to europe to phrase it differently is through the Energy Channel and i dont think either party has an interest in breaking that relationship. As a result of that, when choosing european exposure, one has to be mindful of the russian dimension 3. I think we have to be a little bit sanguine about this. You have a doctorate from oxford in modern russian history. Where does what were seeing now in russia fit in . Well, it fits in actually quite nicely in the sense that russia has this very lets say tense relationship with the rest of the world and it still hasnt found its place in a constructive relationship, especially with the west and i think it was on a good course until 2008 and then things started to unravel as mainly from my position as a result of the unwillingness of the leadership to actually let others participate, not just in the political game but also more in the economic game and obviously the case was a stark reminder that the current political ltte in russia is not willing to share the from the russian economy. That i think is the main stumbling block for russia actually becoming a better and more trusted partner in the world again. There seems to be this assumption in moscow that the country can turn east and that asia will provide what europe and the United States have taken away. Is that misplaced optimism or do you think that is a realistic prospect . I think obviously diversifying your trading partners is for any country a good idea. It depends on who you talk to this moscow and when you listen to what the former finance minister had to say. He didnt think turning to asia is going to be a solution. There is one purnt Current Issue about this. When the west installed financial sanctions on russia, that russia could turn east to raise necessary capital. This has not happened and this is not going to happen. So that relationship with the west remains the most crucial one for russia within the foreseeable future. With it being christmas eve, give us your ruble forecast. Where is the ruble going to end 2015 . Would you bite now isnt the it is at 54 to the dollar at the moment. No, i wouldnt buy the ruble. What is the reason for that . Because this is one area are the russian government and the authorities can obviously intervene and act. If things go really bad, i dont think russia is going to default on its foreign debt like in 1998. It will if anything is needed through a restructuring and its domestic market. Youll be particularly hit. I dont think the ruble is a buy at this level. Ok. Well wrap this conversation up. David, it has been a great pleasure having you here this morning. Thank you very much indeed for your time. Ryan chilcote also joining us as well. Hell be back. I will . . N his Christmas Jumper looking very bright and festive. There are better jumpers in this news room i want to point out. This is as far as were prepared to go when it comes to Christmas Jumpers. It is pretty conservative. The interview apparent sli back on. Sony has reversed the decision and will release the movie that provoked the hacking of the companys computer system. We will tell you what led to this event and tell you where you can see this movie. There has been a lot of p. R. Surrounding it, not all good but i suspect people will be curious. Were going to take a break and leave you with the pictures. See you in a moment. Welcome back. You are watching on the move. Im guy johnson. So we have another plot twist. In a sudden turn of events, Sony Entertainment has announced it will now release its film the interview and will do so tomorrow in a number of theater ace cross america. Here with the latest twist is caroline hyde. A coalition of the independent cinema owners actually petitioned sony. They went to them and sony is thinking actually people want to show this film. We can make this work. They started sending this film out. He had to distribute it yesterday if you wanted to air it on Christmas Day, which had always been the plan until the four major chains said we dont want to run this. Because of the attacks. At least 300 theater also show this film now. Nothing says Christmas Day like seeing a film about killing the north korean leader. There is quite a few reviews that are not perhaps all that endearing to it. Seth rogen is laughing. He said the people have spoken. Freedom has prevailed. Sony didnt give up. It was the cinemas that changed the course of events. A chain in austin, texas will be playing it. Police will be surrounding the location. Other locations changed it. I think actually politics had an awful lot to do with it. President obama said look, we nt have it where some dictator in some place can start imposing censorship in the United States and actually have a listen at what we wished had happened at sony. Sony is a private company, was worried about liability and this and that and the other. I wish they had spoke on the me first. Not ld have told them do get into a pattern in which youre intimidated by these kinds of criminal attacks. Cue green light to start thinking they can push ahead with this film. The fact that a comedy has ecome an International Geopolitical situation. Will this roll out internationally . I think there is a huge amount of comedic value to the whole thing to be brutally honest. Well leave that there. Up next, one last chance for. The greek Prime Minister will be facing a crucial vote. Well talk about it when we come back. Make the best entertainment part of your holidays. Catch all the hottest handpicked titles on the winter watchlist, only with xfinity from comcast. Welcome back. You are watching on the move. I am guy johnson in for jonathan ferro, who is not here. Title sequence talks about francine lacqua, who is not your either. Im the only one here. 30 minutes into the trading day, our markets shaping up . Broadly higher. Most markets are trading higher. It is very strong session in the u. S. Yesterday. The bulk of that has been priced into the european session. Nevertheless, the positive momentum is there. A lot of markets not open today. For work. G up they are around europe, enjoying themselves, waiting for christmas. German bank is not open today. In terms of stocks that are on the move, lets take a look at what is going on. Ryan chilcote is here with what we need to be watching. Nevermind the fact that next to no one is trading today. There are stocks to Pay Attention today. Smith and nephew on fire. Er hase known that stryk been interested in for a wild. They make artificial hips and medical devices. That deal could close within weeks. To Pay Attention to is heidelberg cement. Finally, ocado. We have to do the online brochure. Despite the fact that we know that guy johnson just got his ocado delivery and 11 truck yesterday. Not enough people ordering their christmas turkeys. The stock has been up for the lsu days. It is very volatile. Today, down a little bit. We will have more on heidelberg a little bit later on. We will talk more about the cement story with hans nichols. His covering the back story of the disposal. The me tell you about the other top stories. The Dow Jones Industrial average closing about 18,000 ands yesterday. More thanis up 5. 5 in the last five trading days. The United States had the strongest numbers since 2003. Japan following suit as well. The nikkei closing up 2000 points. Downhanghai, closed around 2 . China is the worlds second performing market last year. Russian has taken a step closer to junk. Nationsit may cut the Credit Rating to below investment grade. It will allow them to bail out banks. S p expects to conclude the review by midjanuary. Lets go from russia degrees. Will