Higher in the united kingdom. Six hours of meetings and nothing agreed. The finance ministers in brussels failing to find any sort of a peace deal here when it comes to greece. Overall, were still seeing stocks remaining remarkably resilient whether they are looking at the greek finance minister, sounding very upbeat with. We have some kind of agreement. We understand eachor much better. We hope there will be an agreement found on february 16 on monday when they go back to the table. Barclays, though, saying we believe the likelihood of a greek exit is now higher than at any point since 2012. They see the euro going to parity. Lets get on the the Foreign Exchange market. Move happening on the ruble. The ruble down against the dollar. A big spike when there was that headline coming from poroshenko saying at the moment the deal is unacceptable. So worries that wont get any sort of ceasefire or agreement for the russian you crane concerns. Meanwhile we are looking at the euro. Euro currently down. That is against the pound. Basically a little bit flat. Well keep an eye on the euro overall. Market pretty resilient when it comes to greece. A little bit of there we are. Rhone up 6 . What a move renault up 6 . Profit up 30 . A big beat there. Lower labor costs are helping even though were seeing a slowdown in russia. Socgen down 2. 4 on the back of its earnings. Frances second biggest bank, seeing profit not rising as much as had been hoped. Slowdown in russia hurting socgen too. Rio tinto on a 2 billion buyback. Christine lagarde, i. M. F. Chief now speaking in brussels about anmy deal for aid for you crane. The i. M. F. Program l go for four years. The plan needs board approval. Obviously well get more details as Christine Lagarde continues to speak. Peace talks in minsk trying to find a solution. Those talks have been going for 15 hours. Together with the i. M. F. News, it has been a very, very busy morning for one man in particular, Ryan Chilcote. Well get to the details on the Foreign Policy side of things. Deal with the finances first. More than some were expecting. The finance minister said she is looking to 15 billion from the i. M. F. Now were getting 17. 5 million. How much of that money comes up front . That the what well soo to see. Lagarde saying that this plan that she is presenting now still needs board approval. Paying attention to a whole bunch of different stuff here including what is going on in minsk where we have the four leaders, the russian and ukrainian president s plus the leaders of germany and france are meeting now with the osce. After talks broke down effectively, the nor mandy group. They presented a ceasefire deal the rebels. Thats what were told by one highly placed diplomat that did not want to be named. Presented the plan to the rebel leaders that are also in minsk and have now entered the building or are in there somewhere perhaps taking part in the talks. They rejected it. This is bad news, the second bit of bad news we have got then morning. First talks from the ukrainian president who said no good news to report yet. The russian side are making unacceptable demands. That statement alone led to a decline of 3. 43 for the russian ruble. It has clawed back a little bit of those losses. Look at the finances now and go back over the headline. The i. M. F. To extend to ukraine. What about the peace talks that have gone on all night and as you say at the moment, it doesnt look like they are going draw to any conclusion any time soon this morning. What happens, ryan if, these talks fail . Well, that would be a very negative development. A couple of options on the table. On one hand, you the European Union. Secretary tomorrow secretarytorial sanctions introduced against the banking sector. Most likely, the unknown there is what will greece do . There have been some suggestions from the green bays as reevently as yesterday that they dont think more sanctions are appropriate. Their foreign minister saying they have not been effective. We can get more sanctions imposed on russ yay russia by the United States. The fear in europe is it could lead to an Old School Cold war proxy war scenario where you have the United States arming the yaw crinians on one side and the russians arming the pro russian militants on the other. Thank you. No doubt youll bring us more news. I want the take on whats happening in the ukraine. Joined now by wayne of Northern Trust asset management. He is the c. E. O. For europe and asia and helps manage 900 billion dollars. You look at a situation evolving in Eastern Ukraine. You said the conflict seems to be happening through the Financial Sector and sanctions. If these talks draw an end with the failure, for you, what is the risk of a postpolicy mistake . I think there is definitely the potential for more isolation and the it has not the you congratulations and russia on the ukraine and eastern europe. Their allocation to merging markets is developed. In an era of low risk, low returns, low Interest Rates investors are hungry for yields constantly. There is a challenge to that. When you look at this geopolitical variable, that we havent had to deal with for a number of decades. Last year it was easy to understand for the market. You battered the dax. Now it is not so straurd. Straightforward. The european markets. Is it a sign of complacency . Yes. One is the big wakeup that the market had semiweeks ago. Wasnt an emerging market risk. It was the swiss again. Volatile any a developed market in a currency that has been very stable. I would say the market has had a period of at least three years of relative benign easy to understand conditions. Now were faced with significant market volatility based on the unknowns from an investors perspective and something we take seriously. It is not only the amount of money we manage by the investment horizon for placing positions in the market. There is a real need to focus on the fundamentals. What we need versus what we dont know. These geopolitical events can afact growth and the point to understand. We have a lot of data to focus on in terms of the Industrial Production retail sales for emerging economies. It is really important to keep back to your framework in interpret s of building a portfolio and making sure youre comfortable with the risks that youre taking and them focusing on those emerging risks and how they continue to develop. Very hard to calculate. Dollar bond dropping away. A lot of this money will probably be used to pay dollar denominated debt. That is going to be a story for the rest of the year. What happens it is a dollar surnls and some of these local currencies plunge. Greek debt talks they go nowhere. With the current bailout expiring at tepid of the month, they are runningout road. Right now youre looking at live pictures from brussels where i. M. F. Managing director Christine Lagarde is speaking. She Just Announced a facility. Lets listen in as we go to break. And members. That said a package of bilateral and unilateral. The European Union as a group. Discussions on difficult issues are difficult discussions and they take time. We very much hope that they will be conclusive. That they will help restore peace and more certainly. Certainty. One of the risks over the potential success of this program is obviously of a geopolitical nave. You know the sooner welcome back. Good morning. A very busy 10 minutes. Christine lagarde was speaking in brussels. She said the total finance package will be worth 40 billion. There will be an e. U. Contribution. Well bring you to top lines as the show progresses. A meeting in minsk over Foreign Policy. The ukraine. A meeting in brussels over debt for greece. Talks between greece and their creditors went into the early hours of the morning as most people expected they would but they failed to solve their differences. Kicking the can down the road, they will meet monday. They managed to strike an optimistic note. Take a listen. An obviously positive one. It should reflect the very positive attitude of everyone around the table today. I was very impressed by the discussion. It was clear to me and my colleagues that the intention for everyone at the table was to find Common Ground and that to me is encouraging. Any closer to issuing 8 billion in t bills . Dont ask me. It is so late at night. It is a serious question. Markets are wondering about it. Will you the ability to fund your government . We will have the ability to fund the government. Allow me not to enter into Public Finance in detail. Dont ask him about a bond market in the middle of the night. Hans nichols on the other side of that conversation. We go into varoufa kinch s in brussels. A little bit of moody tiredness maybe . I was asking about market reaction. He expects it or is hoping it to be positive. There wasnt any conclusion. We do have two important outcomes coming out of it. One, we understand the difficulty of the task. The difficulty of what youre going to do to have greece stay in the program or extend the program in some way. Two, jon, this millibar more concerning longterm the concern that varoufakis might not be able to cut the deals himself. There was a remarkable scene last night. Thinking they had a deal. About four hours into the meeting heading down to his car waiting in the parking garage getting a call on his phone and getting a message that he has to maybe go upstairs. Upstairs, mr. Varouva kinch s had taken the noor again. He didnt know what to do. He was waiting in the parking garage. Left. You this spectacle of finance ministers leaving while some were still inside. Talking about how there was no deal. At that point, the euro dropped. Earlier it was up a little bit on optimism of a deal. Today were going to sort out whether or not the leaders can get anywhere. Kicks the can down the road. There will be another round of negotiations on monday. It is clear that he needs run everything by athens and that could slow down entire negotiate progress sess. Jon . Process. It is europe. We never expect things to be quick and efficient do we . Wayne . Almost a trillion dollars. Youre sitting in the United States where a lot of that money resides. Do they understand do they get whats happening here in europe . How nuanced is this . Is there a sense this is 2012 all over again for the u. S. Investor . From their perspective, and Global Investors were trying tone sure they understand greece is not the same as spain, italy, portugal, ireland. It is a different case. Tiny, small, the g. D. P. Was equivalent to a madrid. There are issues around the political process and again, i think if you come from anglo saxon type country, things happen tend to be quicker, faster easier to understand. A multitude of states, it absolutely needs the time to get the decisions that this process where you have finance ministers agreeing, but they are not agreeing and going back to the central government. I think it is quite normal. I agree with you in interprets of kicking the dan can terms of kicking the can down the road. They are trying to get their messaging correct and they need to agree on some of the finer points. That is modest positive. They need to try to manage the message to the greek people is and say we havent let you down. We have negotiated some package that is fine for us as a country also in showing their external facing message one that were going to agree, were going to keep in there is some kind of austerity program. They are going balance a message. When you strip out to politics, though and look at the pure market moves. It has just done this through january, is the conviction still to be overweight equities despite the political noise . Where are yes. Yes. Were not expecting stellar growth at all from the european economy or developed markets outside the u. S. In the 1 1. 5 g. D. P. Range, there is growth there. You can see corporates being able to gather market share and increase cash and improve good and services. From a european perspective, the par for the e. C. B. , the depreciating currency, the depression of bond yields and credit spreads is something we have seen in the u. K. , japan and the u. S. It follows the rule book of how the q. E. Program works. Investors are not only looking at the pure fundamentalors growth but also about the impact that the q. E. Is having on the eurozone. Sweden denmark, not just the likes of germany. Are you still working to pick up those government bonds . I would say look at the u. S. Treasury market. From the u. S. Investors perspective, they can get nervous in terms of below level treasury yields. It looks good value as well. I do think there is this degrees, an expectsation of further flow of funds, especially if we had language that would indicate there was some pop in u. S. Yields. That there is a move in Monetary Policy. As we look forward through the year, it would not surprise us to see perhaps less attractiveness from a european bond market perspective and more attractiveness from a u. S. Treasury perspective. The c. E. O. Of europe and asia trust management. I. M. F. Chief Christine Lagarde announced a package worth 40 billion. That includes aid and contributions from the European Union. Good news for the ukraines economy, at least for now after almost a year of conflicts, concerns continue about their ability to service their debt. They still need to pay back debt to russia. We are 21 minutes into the session. The ftse dead flat. The dax higher by some 17 points. The moves in the bond market this morning. Ill bring you those moves later in the show. Were back after a short break. Good morning and welcome back to a very busy market open. We got news from Christine Lagarde. I want to bring in Ryan Chilcote who has been looking at that news as it comes in. Looks like a 40 billion finance package. Are ar thats what lagarde said. 17. 5 billion of that is the contribution from the i. M. F. That might be a little bit more than what people were anticipating. The finance minister had been talking about the need for 15 billion. But of course this is a fouryear program. You look at the gap in financing, thats about 40 billion. There is the need for the i. M. F. Money now plus all that other money. Some of it she said might come from the European Union. She didnt say whether russia is going to be part of pitcht they have all right lend 3 billion. There is going to have to be talks with existing creditors immediately after this and they are going to have to be part of bailing ukraine out. That is the thing. We look at the situation and compare it to what happened with greece. Get a financing package now. Four years they are going to come back for more in another year . How much of this money is going to be used to Service Existing debt and russia is a big unknown in all of that. Absolutely. You can assume the russians are going to play hardball when it comes to those negotiations. These negotiations with all the creditors as a result are going to drag on for a good time because obviously the creditors will be looking for one deal for all and that is going to be a hard thing for the ukrainians to accommodate in these circumstances. What is also interesting is the timing of lagardes statement. 9 00 this morning, brussels time. I think there was an expectation, another thing that standard banks tim ash was talking about that we would already have a ceasefire out of minsk. Alas we dont. He says this is perhaps a way that the i. M. F. As part of the west is saying were going to stand by ukraine in any case, even if there is not a ceasefire though we did hear lagarde in that press conference there saying geopolitics was not a small part of this all working out. That was probably the understatement of the day. Really interesting that we get this aid despite the fact that the talks going on in minsk have yet to yield anything. Exactly. We have the financial relief. Will we get the leaf for the conflict in Eastern Ukraine ryan will be all over that story. The talks continue. Coming up, the rate debate. We preview the bank of englands Inflation Report. We are just a couple of minutes away from the Rate Decision from swedens central bank. Will it join the easing club . Find out after the break. Good morning and welcome back. Im jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into the trading day. Lets see how things are shaping up for you. Pretty much a flat day in london. The ftse 100 doing nothing. Big breaking news coming out of stockholm, sweden. The Swedish Central Bank cutting rates to negative 0. 1 . There you go. Swedens bank lowers the key rate to 0. 1 . Averaging minus 0. 11 in the Second Quarter of 2015. They join the easing club in sweden. Euro krona goes higher. The consensus of economists said no action. Some of the traders i was speaking to said we would get the cut and guess what . Here we are. A rate cut from sweden. The Swedish Krona falling off the cliff. That is a stronger euro. Lowered to minus 0. 1 . Going unconventional just like the e. C. B. Just like denmark with inflation falling at an annual 0. 3 . They have already pledged to keep rate increases on hold until well into 2016. Now rates continue to go south. Now i want to get some of the top stories on the equity markets. The key stock for stoxx 600 is outo this kumpu. 55 million euros. Less than the 65 million loss many were anticipating. They say look, First Quarter looking hopeful. They are saying earnings are slightly positive and they have a higher delivery volume. Meanwhile renault up a significant amount. Up 7 . This is the highest that we have seen renault trade at for 10 months. The french car maker of course. 2014 earnings climbed 13 . Better than analysts had been expecting. Lower labor costs have been helping. Offsetting the pain they are kneeling russia and in latin america. Renault driving higher. Meanwhile, rexel, one of the key losers today. Why . The