Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20150323 : vimarsana.c

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20150323

Looking at the country world index. That can buy you elites four Times United States gdp. Where else do you go when you have the economy flush . The u. S. Backing off from immediate rate hike. Japan, not to mention the rest of the countries around the world. People are going into stocks. Pretty much flat and concern about what greece will do concerning its finest. King dollar up 0. 1 . Meanwhile europe pretty flat for you want to watch is commodities. A high on oil. Trading in the United States is up. Saudi arabia over the Weekend Record amounts of crude. All about 10 Million Barrels per day. You are not going to get back to 100 for oil per barrel. You have shale back on in higher cost turning on the tap oil going down. Lets check in on bonds this morning. One area with a little bit of concern is the greek 10 year. 14 basis points. Going into the u. K. Connerly money going the to u. S. Treasuries. Moving last week, foreign cost going down by 14 basis points. Negative yields, i love desperate a negative yield a vortex. Almost 1 3 of the euro is in negative yields overall. Norways starting to bite nigerian debt. Keep an eye on all the debt markets this morning. We say its perhaps complacency when it comes to stop markets for jonathan thank you, caroline hyde. The reason people are getting into equities. Our guest, the ftse 100 trading down. Political risk is the focus today and it always is in europe. The greek Prime Minister is set to me the german chancellor for the second time in five days for you this is greece getting increasingly close to running out of cash. Hans nichols joins us. And our guest in the athens studio. We have to talk about this meeting in berlin. What are we expecting . Hans nichols both sides are dampening. Last week, Angela Merkel said he will not have a solution. What mr. Tsipras is saying you will have a conversation with a key european leader without the threat and pressure of negotiations. Greek papers are reporting that privatization or plans to roll back some of the privatization may be requested by mr. Tsipras. All of it from the back of the meeting on friday and the friday morning and 2 00 a. M. , where theres not a great deal of clarity. We know what have at the beginning. Mr. Tsipras asked for an immediate disbursement an outstanding money left in the bailout program. His argument is he cannot make it to the end of april without facing a severe cash crunch for separately, the Financial Times reporting about a letter sent before last weeks meeting from mr. Tsipras to mrs. Merkel about how they will be unable to service their debt and make payments to last that long until the end of april. One key question people are trying to figure out how long does greece have to make basic payments to pay their employees . There was a report out yesterday , a respected publication, saying april 9 is the new cut off debt date when the grease runs out. On both sides, particularly german, they will look for clarity and information on what the state of greeces finances are in what can be done to bridge them. Jonathan . Jonathan greece, it is fair to say, has not been making many friends in germany. I would expect it to be an awkward meeting. Are you expecting that . Hans bank hans they are rolling out the red carpet. An official state meeting. In Santa Barbara whether mr. Tsipras brings up reparations, i would suspect if he is interested in unlocking the bailout money, his call for reparations are better leveled at domestic audiences as opposed to a german audience. Theres a report out this morning that said the greeks are not only asking the German Government from reparations for what were to budge are meant of his companies off more than 100 Million Euros. A slight chance of opening up a slack second front. Jonathan hans nichols, thank you. Our bureau over in greece. The question, do we have a hound on how much cash greece has left . How long can a last, a matter of days or a matter of weeks . Guest i think the next few weeks or days according to our sources, it is very demand area mr. Tsipras said april 15 will be a crucial time and we have wages to be paid this week and pensions over one billion euros on a thursday. That will be hard. Nobody can pin it down the date of the cash problem because there is more volatility on the inflows. And last week, you have tax collection overdue payments. Nobody could really project. Really, the problem is very severe and very dyer. We cannot candidate down the exact date. We cannot pin down the exact date for we know april is the last time they will have money in the coffers. Jonathan a lot of talk about liquidity problems and a lot of talk about liquidity problems for the bank. We saw a report that outflows is that another problem they have to think about and fast . Vassilis karamanis that is a major problem. The greek government is accepting deposits from the Pension Funds and public entities. The liquidity of the greek Banking System and so basically the Banking System at the moment is a float by liquidity assistance by the ecb. The ecb is reluctant to increase for the greek banks on that basis. Pumped up liquidity in the forms of 300 Million Euros per week. If outflows continue and the greek government keeps on the deposits hard, maybe it will cross at the line. The ecb and greek banks and going into a situation where the greek banks are insolvent. Jonathan Vassilis Karamanis fantastic work. That is some the latest on greece. One of the comments over the weekend i hope there will be a uturn on policy, if not the Greek Economy will collapse and they will slip out of the eurozone and into chaos. That was the week in review of erik nielsen. Lets get to the investor take. This is been going on for a couple of months, a couple of years and the issue is Pretty Simple reform gets of the money. Do not reform, do not get money. Isnt that simple . Guest i think it is. After the january rally, profits at this point and cut our risks and so what we are recommending is they do a strategy where you buy a downside before the redemption and that is the point where you cannot reach and the back and pay your Pension Funds and your Utility Companies through those kind of petty cash accounts. That is the point where it should be a default. Jonathan the problem of greece and so far greece on long. Will not the bond market and the equity. Im pressure you are bored of talking about it. Does it really matter for the rest of europe . Ramin nakisa absolutely, we think it does. That would have to be recapitalization. Big amounts of money to the system by germany because it is a big stakeholder and we got to see refunding of the bailout area it would require cash. It would be a Capital Market impacts. And an impact on sentiment. All of the u. S. Flows pouring into u. S. European equities and it would stop. And it would be the biggest since the beginning of january. The dax is on fire. Dax versus em, thats a very good one. Jonathan to about the equities markets in 20 minutes time. Is it a sentiment as opposed to economic . Is it shortterm selloff . Ramin nakisa the question is what will it do to other countries like portugal . What what happened to portugal . We see the Political Parties respond to what happened in greece in a negative way. The second is a russia. Russia has been funding la pen and the real worry is there will be a switch to political influence to russia and away from europe and not to be on our doorstep. It is something we cannot ignore. Jonathan we will dig deeper into the politics for you do not want to miss our interview with Yanis Varoufakis tomorrow and that will be first on bloomberg television. Ramin will stay with us. The political pendulum. Should markets be concerned . We are live in paris and madrid. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to on the move. The ftse 100 is up by almost 20 points. The dax much lower. Back to 12,000 points per over the weekend, it was all about politics. Establishment parties took the headlines. Thirdplace well l while la pens party came in second. Charles penty joins us. First, to greg. The winner seems to be a throwback. Mr. Sarkozy. What is the significance of a win for his party . Greg sisi came at a similar retirement to take over the reins of the first big test. Since he came out of 70 retirement to take over the reins this is first big test. The view of old all of the papers. National front it did well, 25 . A few years ago, that would send alarm bells. The polls before this election showed the National Front and net and not ahead of the unp. The fact it took the first round by several Percentage Points we do not have the final results yet, but about 3 , closely a big victory for sarkozy. It has to be confirmed in the second round next week. The people who did not get a majority in the first round runoff again. It looks like the unp will have a historic run and will probably control 80 of the 100 departments. Jonathan a quarter of the vote still the National Front, a win for the former president sarkozy, is it a vote against president Aland Hollande . Charles yes and no. They run a local transport greg yes and no. It shouldve been abolished ages ago and it always been proposals to abolish and local leaders flip out. These elections never go for the party in power. It was always the left that would win every time they came up so they were always used to the way of sending the message yeah, it is unpopular. Unemployment is high. No way to get around. I would not over dramatized that the social party did poorly. Just of a great inside. Gregory joining us over in paris. I want to take it out to charles penty. The socialist Holding Party but the podem partyos Podemos Party won 16 seats. What is the significance . Charles we are seeing emerges of these protest parties. People looking for an alternative to the traditional 2party structure. We have seen podemos coming in a strong third. And andalusia has been held by socialist for 30 years. They held on reasonably well in its debts and possibly not what some people expected. We are seeing the emergence of protest parties. That is podemos, from the less a left and picked up a chunk. Jonathan does it tell us anything about the general election later this year . Charles i think it does. Andalusia is different. A huge area of Southern Spain and a socialist stronghold. We know the kind of votes they are getting in andalusia not represented across the country as a whole. We know podemos gets high score in opinion polls for National Elections and we see the emergence of other centrist parties as well. And we returned to that point with the mergers of the two new parties which are really shaking things up in spain and that is the trend everybody will be watching going into the National Elections later this year. Jonathan charles penty, thank you for joining us. I want to bring back ramin nakisa. Lets tell about credit risk and the bond markets, not really seeing much for the likes of marie pen coming into power. Ramin nakisa what we are telling our clients is to reduce duration in european softened bonds. People were overweight going to to ecb buying. People saying ecb is buying a huge amount of debt and that is going to push yields down. We disagree with that. The traditional argument stands against that. And growth is improving. Inflation is rising. You look at the five year in europe, inflation is increasing. We think spreads are going to widen and we also think the yields are going to rise. In that kind of environment you do not want the sovereign market. Jonathan the long end is where you would rally . As cpi bottoms out and so should yields . Is it that that is more significant or Political Risk . Ramin nakisa Political Risk for spain is much lower than for greece. The most important thing to look at its fundamentals for if growth arises that is a complete miss pricing. We would not want the Long Duration in that environment. Jonathan do you stay up instead of going short . Erik nielsen where ramin nakisa wheres the upside . Client shouldnt have be short and should not be Long Duration. Jonathan staying with it and from stocks to bonds. Is there any juice left as they had to alltime highs . We will talk about that. Jonathan good morning and welcome back. Stocks a little bit softer. We are coming off the back of another stunning week for equities. Their best we can almost two years. The dax on a 10 week winning streak. Europe stoxx 600 a whisper away from an alltime high. Check this out. The move on the stoxx 600 over the year in dollars, you get a different picture. I want to bring back ramin nakisa. Ramin nakisa europe after these levels are looking at more expensive. You may see it increase up by 0. 1 . I think all of these massive blooms we have seen are pretty much it done. Jonathan when i spoke to a strategist, she said we need fx. We need more flow because of x x stability. Fx stability. Do you agree with that . Ramin nakisa i do it we still see it. It flows into european equities. It seems to be popular, even in europe and the u. S. I think it will continue. My worry is stories about greece switching off the flow. That seems to be the case. Declining over the past few weeks. The deposits in greek banks to watch and we will see numbers at the end of the month. Anecdotally, we have heard it is very big deposit outflows. Im sure you cover that. Jonathan we have. Wait for a better entry points, is that your view . Erik nielsen ramin nakisa that is our review. We are incredibly bullish on europe. We like a japan. Within the Corporate Governance there is fantastic. And problems with the Commodity Markets typically japan outperforms and we expect that continue. Jonathan i have to say that to you, the government story in japan and weapon waiting. Why are you so confident. Ramin nakisa 1 trillion fund buying into the nikkei and im happy. Just the bank the pension fund. Jonathan the pension fund. Ramin nakisa. The bank of france governor will join us, Christian Noyer. We will be live in paris in a couple. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to on the move. I am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into your trading day. This is how the session is shaping up. The day off a losses. The dax is down. The ftse 100 dropped below 7000 points up by 0. 3 . What a run we have had for european equities. Some losses and. Story sprint lets it gets of them with a mark barton. Mark trading over 2 . The biggest Shareholder Agreement to sell to chemchina that will lead to a 7. 7 billion euro for this carmaker. Pirelli is valued at 7. 1 billion euros and is below the share on friday. Jumping to the highest level since early 2000. On thursday, emerged in papers that camfin. Pirelli is up by 3 . Another stop moving is bi llfinger. Moving to the downside. Yesterday, it announced a statement saying it is probing allegations of bribery linked to its brazilian unit. Payments from the brazilian unit may have been made to unspecified Public Officials and employees of state companies in connection with orders. The company has carried out an inquiry and said it has been substantiated. Investigations are not completed. It is unclear to who and what amount. Lvmh, 3 lower today. Jpmorgan downgrading to neutral from overweight. 12 month price target has been quite of a run. 42 higher in the last 12 months. It is 6 below its highest of march of 16 when it reached the highest level since 1998. That 12 month target is higher than the 12 month target of the analysts we surveyed on bloomberg. What a run for lvmh. Shares down by 3 . Jonathan thank you, mark barton. Here with the top story this morning is singapore against a week of National Mourning after the death of its founding father, lee kuan yew. She held his post for 31 years and he is credited for guiding the city state from a post to win the most prosperous nations. He was 91 years old for you norway sovereign wealth making plans for the first asian real estate investment. That 870 billion wealth fund counted out 2. 2 of its assets in real estate last year and is seeking to build the share and 5 . National front leader le pen casted her ballot for it was former for the president sarkozys party that won the most. The National Front took 26 . Hollandes party took 6 . And of course, another event we are focused on is a key meeting in berlin and another one in paris on a day that mr. Tsipras and mrs. Merkel meets. Coming together and efforts capital for the gic conference with the bank offerings. Manus cranny is standing by with a guest. Over to you. Manus john, thank you. Joining me is the chief economist at the lloyds bank corporation. Great to have you with me. Christian noyer is upstairs. I know you are keen to get back up there. Your subject today a you will talk about growth income. You are a little bit skeptical about the longerterm prospects why . Where are we in the debate . Guest i am more then skeptical i am pessimistic about longterm. One, the whole stagnation. Your surfers from an aging population and that will drag down growth. On top of that, without the legacy of the crisis. It resulted in low level of investments by governments and businesses. That is what a serious, longterm consequences. Manus when we were chatting, you said 2015 my surprise people. My counteracts would be the 60 billion euros of quantitative easing, why are you still so skeptical if thats what the ecb are doing . Patrick foley it is a bit of a red herring. If you believe it will have an impact, it may have an impact on companies and help th

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