As to where we will go next week. A little pop in equities. We are seeing a good week for copper did training up. 1 . More than 5 trading here in london and asia. Clearly there has been an appetite as we see glencore output back where there where the output for copper will be going. Not so when you look at another commodity, oil on the downward should victory. Trajectory. Wnward cutting 2015 outlook for crude 248. Tos outlook for crude 48. It is eyeing up a company in the u. S. , ff pharma. And manages office space could it have really been 3 billion pounds. It was a blackstone potentially, but the rumors continue. The share price goes higher. By. 6 . Tal up they are pulling back on china, because of corruption investigations. Back to you. Jonathan 10 minutes into it two minutes into the session. Another choppy week. Shery ahn, your asian market wrap. Shery it is a mixed picture today with markets lacking. The shanghai composite wasnt negative territory most of the day. In the last 40 minutes, stocks regaining ground it finishing unchanged. Volume only half of its threemonth average. That is after the offshore yuan jump. The hang seng index getting. 4 index gaining. 4 . The nikkei, we did not know where the market was going, but. 2 . Nished down with that rally earlier, the nikkei is on a positive note. Gaining on a weekly basis for the first time in a month. New zealand down about the same amount. As he lined we had new zealand, we had manufacturing data out, showing expansion in august. Bank keepingntral its key Interest Rates steady. One of the big gainers inch. 8 . Strengthening jonathan have a great weekend and asia. We are lookingd, forward to fed today, september 17, when the market finds out if the fed will hike rates. Again, has waited once declaring the time is not right. Crooks we see the job we see the job market we see there is room for the fed to hold their position for a while. The market is confused. The desks some say the rate hike is on. Some say it will be delayed. Some say the rate hike is on. Some say it will be delayed. Gold currently trading lower. Golda signaling we could see rates on the high side. Member septimus 17th, we could see a quarter of a percentage point rise. Yields,year treasury that is another to keep an eye on. Foreign costs push higher. That giving us a signal that a rate rise is on. Economists are more bullish. When we ascertain the views of economists, 38 out of 78 think a rate hike could happen as soon as next week. Basically, 5050. Look at the other end of the market, who said a rate rise will not happen on septimus 17th o one, this great function september 17 . For one, this great function derivative traders giving us their sentiment. Only 28 believe that a move will come september. Only if you believe that next week will be the go date. That is one great function to keep your eye on. That is the federal funds futures rates. The dollar is dropping as well. Over the last few days, perhaps money coming off the table as to whether there will be a rate hike. The tom is not desk the time is not now. Jonathan lets bring in our guest, antonin jullier. Great to have you with us. We talk about the fed and market pricing. How much is that about peoples pricing of what the fed doesnt next month . Antonin a bit of both. If we look beyond fed futures. Look at oil price moves, it was clear the lack of liquidity being obvious. It did over exacerbate. The rate hikes which is . Instruments are market price. The weight feels like 25 or 28 . In looks really low. Jonathan we are talking about the fed. The discussion is happening with the bank of japan. What they might do next. One third of economist telling earth did these guys by . They reached for me etfs. For more etfs. What you think now . Antonin the big question has is the market discounting what we have saw . The nikkei outperform. The nikkei outperformed. It was on the upper end of the fair value. Down 60 in a month. Thats down 16 and a month. Month. 16 in a in the context of ecb, what is happening in china. Tim were going to talk about china. The final question in this section, the world is not working like it used to. Riott draghi came out and that is fascinating. Eurodollar punches. We raise all of the losses. If they pull the trigger on qe2, will the market work the way it works in q1. Antonin it should. If you look at qe, where the euro trade rated price. It raised a lot of weakness. The second aspect is inflation. When is gone down. Aspect is inflation. It has gone down. Gdp tapping gdp. Growth has been muted. The Central Banks stepped in. A big question was given the , we needed the Central Banks to beat self supported. That is what draghi did. Jonathan we are going to talk china after the break. Coming up, the imf says you want reform is necessary. How close is the currency to being supported . Onded the rout, glencore is the road to amend its debt burden. Stay with us. Jonathan your top stories on bloomberg. Today marks the 14th anniversary of the september 11 terrorist attack in the United States. It was the worst attack on United States oil United States soil since pearl harbor. Billionaire considering the layout considering a buyout overseaswith an partner. Hes got the plan three months ago when an agreement cannot be reached. Goldman sachs has cut its oil forecast. Pushing brent below 50 a barrel next year. The potential for crude to drop as low as 20 a barrel. China is taking big steps to make the yuan more of an International Currency could the country opened its foreign the mystic Exchange Market to Central Banks. Imf whoengles spoke to says china opening up is a positive sign. It is the way to move. It is important to the market base. Gradually. The interestsure is marketbased. Does the remedy need to be floatable . Not necessarily. Jonathan the hong kong trade of yuan is up. To nick, lets get out waters. , the question remains. What are the government up to the what is the government up to . the shark is nick the shark is in the water. When the government intervenes, it sends a message saying be. Watch where you are swimming. Establish a more freely convertible yuan, given the market control here it control. That pushes down the onshore yuan. Interpretive as a way to push speculators out. To push up short positions. If the government more control over the yuan to give it the course that the government sees the currency. Jonathan have a urgent we can. Lets bring back in antonin jullier. Antonin, quantitative heightening. A word that is now in capital letters ever since the Chinese Central Bank devalued the currency. Do you pay much attention to that debate . , its evidence is there that it is happening . Antonin we do pay attention. Risk assets are correlated to central bank expansion. In this case, it is about china selling back u. S. Bonds to shore whatever was bought by the fed, [indiscernible] that is quantitative tightening. Any event we have done to try it tofy it, boj, we find be a driver. The growth is still there. The question about china is not about where is it going to go . And what is going to the impact on the rest of the world . Quantitative tightening has been a big driver of risk assets. In any Portfolio Management model, we would expect when equities to go lower, bonds would go higher. Bonds and equities, they receive a lot of equities bonds didnt really as much. That created a technical pressure. Gross reduction of bonds. Technical than fundamental. Jonathan the technical correction has fueled heightened risk. Its at a point where it is so extreme you become a buyer echo antonin sheet triggered some oversold signals. It rebound. Is difficulty weve had there was a shock. We been all trying to explain it. Been all trying to explain it. Trying to find a spin. Mutual funds were not in the office. Fund managers Hedge Fund Managers were not in the office as well. Proxies,ook at market we need to differentiate between what the flows are make it are making. There has been a sizable disconnect in the last few weeks. China is slowing down. There are some inflationary fears. We probably overpriced them. Question, if top you could answer you would have a wealth of money, if we are pricing in the work that you all have done, zero eps growth, another 10 correction on the back of that . What about pricing in that . Antonin that would be harder. Weve got problems for eps growth of 10 . The last month as it reprice affected zero. Either the world is slowing down and there is more downside to eps growth. We are not going to stay were yard. We think another 10 down in the market would price a huge amount of negative news. It is a recognition that there is an increased risk of recession. Jonathan the market moves before the economists. Crews get cut. Goldman sachs, 20 oil could be on the card. Glut persists. Details after the break. Jonathan good morning. Welcome back to on the move. I am Jonathan Ferro. Goldman sachs making headlines. Cutting its price forecast on crude. The bank says oil would fall to 20 a barrel if the glut continues. It is not the best case scenario, but it has made headlines. Where joined by antonin jullier. Will 20 oil they revised their forecast. Maybe the real headline is they see rent at 50. What did you think of the note . That is quite right. Is theeyre saying market we have seen this year is going to persist for longer. Next year, were going to see global inventory build. Pretty gloomy outlook. Jonathan before the break, who are talking about going after the markets. The oil majors, the managers were not pricing and 50 oil. They thought there was going to be a rebound. Goldman sachs says theyre going to roll over once again. Emphasizing that point. When you look at the oil majors, where you stand . They are pricing a lot of oils i guess. They went neutral. The argument was not to be bullish on oil. The argument was that they are on a on a price of trading 30 though valuations over 30 years. I mean 30 year low by uh ands. 30 year low valuations. We see they are optimizing the Balance Sheets, maintaining the dividend and try to restructure themselves. The positioning has been low as well. We are not saying it is going to bounce it just yet. At least on a 12 month basis, we think we are not far away from bottom by uh ands in the oil majors. Jonathan well, i imagine when Goldman Sachs put out that note, they had it good idea that anybody would talk about is a 20 dollar oil and what is the scenario that takes crude from around 50 to 20. Will you can build a case. We are still inducing about 2 Million Barrels a day. More than what we need. That oil has got to find somewhere to go. The goldman they are asking is what happens if the world takes get filled. And you suddenly have oil coming off the market with no place to go. Jonathan we talked about Market Structure and how some of these corrections were technical. When we talk about oil, we talk about fundamentals. So be talking about technicals . Will drive shorter term price action. In increased supply and demand. There is work coming in the next few months. [indiscernible] are going to stop moving the market. The reason you can bounce so hard and so fast, is because of the short positioning. Jonathan antonin jullier, thank you for joining us. We dropake a pledge, if to 20 a barrel, i will do my best to buy my i will do my best to buy a barrel of crude and put it in my backyard. Coming up, we speak to the biggest glencore we will be back in two. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Jonathan good morning. Welcome back to bloomberg tv. 30 minutes into the trading session. Im going to bring up the equity market board. And bring you uptodate on what is happening over in germany. Wolfgang schaeuble speaking this morning. One of the market is suffering from excessive liquidity. You can put one of two together and make whatever you want. 4 10 of 1 . Down by switch of the board. Im going to talk about fx. Dollar, 13 flat. Jockeys birthday comes out with very bullish words. Draghis birthday comes out with very bullish words. Crude down 1. 8 . Lets get your stock movers. Caroline hyde. Caroline thank you very much. Lets look at one of the standout gainers. It is tdc we just charging ahead, up 3. 5 . This is a u. K. Company, helps provide us with office space. It seems to be in the m a spotlight. Saying 3 mail has been Million Pounds approach family turned down by the likes of tracks own. The ongoing debate on whether it will be a target, driving it higher. On the flipside is the downward should victory of tdc. Down 5. 5 . Rival is offth its the table. Shares plunging. Saying the Dividend Payment is at risk. The lowest in almost three years at the moment for this stock price. We are seeing eleanor scrapped their overall merger. This is why youre seeing this stock under duress. Goldman sachs shouting out about oil. U. K. Shouting out about rices as well. Overall, it is coming us u. K. Power estimates have been cut by 10 by Goldman Sachs. No recovery seen in the u. K. Power prices. Caroline hyde, think you very much. Lets bring you unemployment data out of sweden. Unemployment coming in at 6. 4 in the month of august. The survey we saw, 6. 8 . Dp the Second Quarter, that is gdp revised higher the in the Second Quarter is a revised higher. The qe program, the data doesnt look too bad. We will talk about sweden later. I want to talk about the minors. After announcing plans to sell shares and assets, glencore had a big boost. On monday, the stock jumped on the most since january 2013. Then the enthusiasm slipped away. I want to bring in our guest to talk about this. Paul gait, Senior Research analyst. John meyer at sp angel. Im to start with you john. The big assumption. Are we going to get a big rise issue . John it doesnt look like its going to be a right issue here it we know they have asked for a convertible issue. That may not be the way to go. It is a sensible size equity issue underwritten by the big banks. I would see that get in the way i would see that getting away. Gate, i been saying the most bullish analyst, based on the price target you are. Ier this week, paul weve got their rights issue. Thingsa whole host of they need to be worked through. We got the closure of those copper mines. That is a lot for any Management Team to be doing with. I think it is a positive stock. The Balance Sheet and just as some the core risk that people have. Lets get through that. Insufficient, we can revisit the question afterward. Never mind copper, what is the story there . China,he big question is the worlds biggest consumer and producer of it. Youve got a seaborne market that is relatively small compared to the size of chinese. What gives rise to the volatility. Overlay that, you have the question about carbon and Global Energy mix. Maximum uncertainty around the Value Proposition of earning any thermal glencore being a traitor of the material. Those concerns are overdone. Thermal core is still the Worlds Largest source of thermal energy. Role in a continuing the energy mix. If you look at where the industry is, it never generated lower even the margins. There has to be a recovery. When it take place, glencore will rise. Jonathan john meyer, this is the worst performing stock on the ftse 100. Something that everyone watching this program already knows. It is his baby. When do we start taking about the prospect of his man leaving . John falling commodity prices. Their start a business, they are sensitive to that. Having bought their starter business, they are sensitive to that. Berg ishite glaze and so keen to address that issue. We can see what the market is doing to us. There is potential for danger. Lets start this out to he is moving quickly. Its why we dont know the full terms of the equity issue. He said monday we are going to go for it monday we are going for it, but they havent figured out how they are going to do this. He is a genius running a company. To take him out of glencore would not be a good thing. There is still lots of opportunity. They got called out. When you buy glencore, europe. Uying a mining business youre buying a trending business that is done really well you are buying a trending business that has been doing really well. They got called up by the chinese. I dont think is going to happen to them again. Is Oil Marketing business brilliant. Good potential there. The mining business is going to have a tough time for the next 12 months maybe. I think they are going to turn this ship around. Jonathan if youre a stock picker and you one exposure, white by going core echo in buying glencore what am i you,g . I want to ask theoretically, if they cant get their rights issue away, what scenario are we painting here . John if you can get a rights issue away, there are questions that need to be asked broadly in the mining industry. Lets take that. If you take the operational and Financial Leverage of glencore into the falling copper price it glencore yes, has a greater degree of leverage. Is there a glencore without glaze and berg . If iteft tenants is not as if they are absolved of what is going on. The question would be would replace him . What is glencore without him . The program that is then placed on him over the last few weeks seems out of proportion to the environment. It is it it is as if people had a over elevation. It is an unreasonable expectation. Jonathan one of the few to say what knows is going on in china anyway. I would rather have the honesty of that kind of position than what we have seen from andrew mckenzie. He forecast at all. He saw 45. That is nonsensical. Much better to be honest about the situation. At least you can try to understand what is going on. As far as i