Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move With Rishaad Salamat 2

BLOOMBERG On The Move With Rishaad Salamat February 9, 2015

Heres david. We cannot make out that the point which direction stocks will be at least trending. For today the lead will be, australia is weak, blowout jobs numbers in the u. S. That sent stocks basically tanking. It sent yields flying. I will get you more on what the yields are doing at this point in time but certainly the odds of a rate hike from the fed, in fact Going Forward perhaps to june. Look at what options are saying data projecting 25 26 of that happening at this point in time. Obviously, that could all change given future job reports. This is what asia is doing now. Fairly mixed jafment pan half of 1 higher. You had the current account surplus there for january a little narrower than expected. 187 billion yen certain lips the japanese yen went above 1. 19. A little bee three but certainly strong dollar helping things along in japan. Half of 1 . What else do we have . Australia down half of 1 pr for the market there. Tony abbott managing to defeat the leadership. More on that in a bit as for the data that came out of china on the weak end and big drop there in imports. Let take a lookt when it comes to oil prices. We did see big movement there. Third day now for crude. Just about at the highest level so far this year. 53. 5, price of crude. I mentioned yields. Quickly before i go, let my point out what we are seeing, u. S. Yields, 195 basis points the high we hit going into this morning. A little below that. Chans of the u. S. Rate hike come june sent yields flying up 7 for the tenyear cross, he specially shortterm tenors there. Lets leave it this for now. Fairly mixed. Unclear which direction we will be headed. Not bad. Looking at the trade out of china dominating some of the economic headlines at the moment. Showing weaking domestic demand is falling oil pries driving together to produce recordhigh trade surplus there. You have been breaking down the numbers. Have to drill down the numbers. Seasonal affect as well. Look at that. This type of year we also find some of that date why is skewed by what happens in particularly when it comes to the weeks ahead with chinese new year. Absolutely. You have seasonal disportions which we will get into in a minute. But have disportions in commodity pries and oil and higher dollar, all contributing. You have weaker export market as well. So thrv that leads to weaker manufacturing in china. Ok, you also have the weaker domestic situation. Which is not weaker imports. Also skewed because sft dollar domination in oil. Oil is significantly down. Lets look at the numbers. First exterm situation. Exports expected to gain, they did not. Down 3. 3 . The first time it fell in 11 months. This is not the big picture. Bigger picture domestic demand, import again falling. The most in more than five years. Down 20 . That led to record traved surplus of 60 billion u. S. Dollars and change. You have a lot of calls now. Is the economy slowing further than expected . Will we have more . Will there be another Interest Rate cut . And Federal Reserve requirement at the same time. I think you said hey just grab on to this but dont look too deep into it. Yes. Chief china economist is saying a couple of things. On the currency front the trade data creates a dilemma for the exchange rate. China does not want too rapid depreciation in the currency for appreciation. So far in the last three months its depreciated about 2 . Thats on the one side. I just got a morning note from wang tao from this import is down 20 and she says it might ull be a little too misleading. Imports do not represent necessarily falling off the cliff. Chinese new year, Lunar New Year nearly upon us. We can expect the next two months all over the shop. Always seasonal distortions. Last year the Lunar New Year fell in february theres still always disportions. This one coming probably latest it ever not ever has but middletolate february. There are distortions. Things happen january and february, unlike other in the year but keep in mind you have consider basis in effect here. And now the economy is weaker and commodity weaker currencies weaker. Steve, thank you very much. Steve engle there. Its all coming against the background of chinas official crackdown on is corruption. Could have ever wider ramifications. And now the fallout could ensnare some of the mather corporations as well. We are mentioning the fallout from the coldings affair here as well. Are we is not it carries on. The casa debt situation, basically it missed the bond payment, coupon payment, came as it was under investigation for alleged graft. We were seeing that at Many Chinese Companies as the anticorruption company continues, what many are saying biggest anticorruption campaign. Or antiopulent campaign here. Thats right. Sales down at casinos, luxury handbags not doing as well. Bigger warning from the ratings agencies is property firms and banks may be nofmente have trouble with debt. Specifically lets look at moodys, nonperforming loans, expect those to grow significantly for property sectors. S p said in the coming months debts will be mature as developers. We reported on the departure of alleged corruption activities. Let move along. Talking about china is elsewhere pushing ahead to plan to ease trading controls. Chinas been trying to attract more sophisticated investors allowing margin trading out there as well. And the shanghai hon Congress Stock connect, whatever its worth. Japan posting sixth straight currentaccount surplus. Helping to push the balance to 1. 6 billion. And helping japan swing back from a deficit last year. And the jut department in the u. S. Is looking into a bank that misled clients under Foreign Exchange products. This according to sources that say investigators have been speaking to recent employees in recent weeks to find out if the bank misrepresented the pricing of currency transactions. Talking about banks under the microscope, hsbc could have helped clients dodge millions of dollars in tax. Picture being painted by secret files that could be the biggest banking leak in history. Sherrys having a look at it for us. What do we know about the investigation taken by the Guardian Newspaper and also the bbc as well as french newspaper. The hsbc has potentially helped healthy holders get around assets, this prepared by the consortium of investigative journalists and theyre preparing reports by a file stolen in 2007 in geneva. They are showing the swriss arm of hsbc held customers withdraw breaks of cash sometimes in foreign currency that could not be used in switzerland. Aggressively market schemes to help wealthy clients avoid european taxes included with them to conceal undeclared bank accounts. The files cover the period between 2005 and 2007 and thousands of accounts holding almost 120 billion in assets. Now the thing is, im sure hsbc is not taking this lying down. What have they said in their defense . What are they saying about the allegations . Not so nch their defense but they have actually admitted to the wrongdoing by the swiss subsidiary. They are saying in the statement they are not accountable for past compliance and control failures. This is the private Bank Division of hsbc, is it not . Right. Private Bank Division in switzerland. Now theyre saying they have taken significant steps over the years to implement reforms and theyre saying that they have dropped clients who did not meet their new, stricter hsbc standards. So what they are saying is those starneds were not applied, hsbc and switzer lapd was now fully integrated to hsbc when they was not fully intergraded and since 2007 they dropped about 70 of their client base in order to adhere to this standards. When we look at the bank, what sort of clients are we talking about here . Who could the bank have helped . Talking about colorful clients, hollywood stars, royal itty, heir to some of the biggest fortunes among entertainers. We have david bowie and King Mohammed vi of mow roquio. Dozens of members of the saudi royal family. Not to mention people who are in the u. S. Sanctions list. Shery, thank you very much, with hsbc here. Lets move to along to tell you what we have on the other side of the break of the tony abbott managing to hold on to the position of Prime Minister but it may only be a matter of time until that is under threat again. Is that really the case . We will held to melbourne for more when on the move returns. A look at the headlines, three more bodies have been found from the transasia accident. And they agreed to implement new rules because transasia already published schedules for january and february. The weekend election in new delhi may show nagin is not envinceable at all. Sweeping victory for kejriwal. 67 surveys say the party is ahead. Kejriwal ran delhi for seven weeks before designing when an anticorruption bill was rejected. He promised to serve a full fiveyear term this time if he wins. The australian Prime Minister tony abbott has defeated a leadership challenge and remains in control of the government. A circle spill motion to have the p. M. Declared vacant but liberal lawmakers supported him and challenge collapsed after just 16 minutes. Abbott had been criticized for series of policy changes and decision towards australia top honor to prince philip. Lets check in on how the shenanigans in australia are affecting the markets. Joining us from melbourne, the chief Market Strategist at i. G. Markets. Chris, thank you very much for joining us. How is this playing out in the trading days there . We probably expect and certainly expected the motion to come through and i think bookies at the beginning of the day had the motion to fail and thats exactly what we had seen. We have seen weaknesses in the australian dollars, but thats down to the poor trade balance numbers from china. We are seeing bigger clients in shorter names on that premise as well. I think the spill motion, where he still have seen a third of the liberal party voting against tony ab o it will not inspire him with any confidence. We are used to political instability in australia, its any wonder why were attracting any foreign capital at all. We have got a political situation akin with probably italy at the moment. Its a difficult situation. A lot of instability. We have not seen too much in the way of client activity or market activity based on the election or vote it itself. Interesting what you said there about italy in the comparison. Lets move to you mentioned also china trade is probably more important sthafment primarily in effect as Foreign Exchange or Mining Companies like that . Aussies it will not surprise you, so sensitive to flows around but whats happening in china there and especially when you see the import levels export levels from china pulling away quickly. Not just the key export of iron, contra buge there and key terms of trade, its not only just the value but volumes coming down as well, which were quite shocking. We have seen the aussie quite sensitive to that this morning. A risk of markets in itself. Aussie yen under pressure. Sterling aussie seems to be the one i like at the moment. Seen a new high coming through there as well. Pushing 1. 97. I would not be surprised to see that up to the 2 level in the coming weeks as well. Aussie is under pressure. We have seen a lot of conduct tivety around the big miners rather than smaller players today. But there is a sense this trade balance number whilst the suris fass improved, its been the result of a terrible terrible import number, adjusted on a headline basis there as well. And as far as the import numbers correlation between australia exports there too. And all of this against the backdrop there . We expect to see more in the market have seen it, hence we didnt see much of a reaction and measuring first and foremost ahead of the i. P. O. That had come out here this week or so. This week into the holiday and Lunar New Year and liquidity tends to dry up as well. Probably more liquidity operations for the reverse repo mechanisms this week. Triple r has come through. Market has not responded too carefully but they will be clearly coming through. I think the currency situation there is probably the most important. We are liked to have seen effects come out. Would i not be surprised seeing strengthening in terps of lower midpoint interesting to see how the market trades that today. Clearly when we have seen weak import numbers before, we tend to see quite a he hefty fix to the down side. I think its the biggest, most important thing in the coming months is especially with c. P. O. Out as well. Amazing payroll numbers and on top of that, we dont have much of a go here in asia as a result of that either. Still got one eye on europe still there, chris. Havent gotten an eye on europe, as a macro trader you probably never will. Greece is stealing headlines again today. Theres a bit of Political Tension in the middle east causing a bit in w. T. I. This morning. Whats happening in greece and political posturing and ramping up and elevating their side of the equation. We all thought the european credit held all of the cards. It seems they have taken this up a notch today. Would i not be surprised to see european markets taking a bit of a beating when they open later on. We have not seen major negative fles in the euro this morning but that situation is one you have to keep an eye on. Floats in actually equity markets have been sensational over the last couple of weeks. Everyone wants to be in that spause because of the outperformance because Everybody Loves liquidity. I think the greek drama has legs to play out and the comments this morning have been talked about by traders on the floors today. Chris, have a fab week. Chris from i. N. G. Markets. Coming up abbott seeing off a leadership challenge but what do these moves remain . Back on the move, it was in contest, abbott easily surviving the challenge leadership from his party. The whole process ended in a little more than a quarter of an hour. Were in canberra. Pretty comfortable. But is it as comfortable as it all seemed . Well, had there been another 10 votes against tony abbott in favor of the spill motion, i think we would be having a rather different conversation. Its worth bearing in mind while tonny abbott did win the day here there are still 39 members of his caucus colleagues who would have been quite keen to see him vacate the position. And vote was also brought forward from tuesday. It was meant to happen tomorrow. Tony abbott keen to get it out of the way and in many respects that would have made it more difficult for his opponents to rally but also will make Prime Ministers question time a lot less farce cal than it would have been. For his parse the Prime Minister keen to get part, the Prime Minister is keen to get on with the job. Heres what he said the liberal party dealt with the spill motion and now this matter is behind us. We are absolutely determined to work for you, the people who elected us. We want to end the disunity and uncertainty which destroyed two latter governments and give you the Good Government that you deserve. People are asking, ok, those who voted against him, will they now get behind him . Will colleagues now present a unified front . The architecture of the spill motion was an interesting one in that it didnt come from the front bench. The person who many thought was heir apparent never once put his hand up in an attempt dwround mine tony abbott. This was the back bench who were a bit worried about what might happen in current polling continues. Crucially some of back bench were getting behind mr. Abbott today. The original spill motion was moved by an m. P. From western australia. Heres what he had to say this is an opportunity now for the Prime Minister to do as he said, change his approach. Given theres no change in leadership, the Prime Minister should be given the chance to move forward. Paul thank you very much for that. Paul allen there from canberra as tony abbott managed to win the spill motion and carries on as Prime Minister. Up next talking about property and chinas sales boosting the property records. Joined by the group chairman, ronnie chen joining us on the move next. A day to drag asian markets way down by economic signals from china and the United States. Numbers game, why more countries are turning their gaps on g. D. P. As measure of growth. And the good, the bad and the ugly. Asia pacific cities stack up in terms of sustainability. The Chinese Market open is nearly upon us. Opening in manila as well. Looking at whos wearing the hats, bulls or bears . Bears are slowly putting on their hats at this point. It was a bit unclear about 30 minutes back but i think we have more clarity now. Thats what happened in the u. S. Friday. U. S. Jobs report. That was brought forward a little bit. Stocks fell, yields went up. Asia looking like this. Japans off the highs of the today. China where hong kong, shanghai man nilia about to get under way now jafment pan erasing earlier gains now. We went 119, a little below 1. 19 at this point. Regional benchmark lower at this point in time. Lets get to the opening numbers. Shanghai composite hang seng index and shares in hong kong. Shang high shanghai is down but coming back to more normal levels closer to longerterm averages. 910 literally low since the night before christmas 2014. Heng seng index down 220, 230 points. Just want to is mention here as well, on shanghai, you have this option of the contracts starting trade today. Dd hang seng its an option that would allow you to pinch against volatility. New tool for you to protect yourself against the worlds most volatile stock market. Han seng index, a few changes announced friday. Ais additional 38 securities starting february 18th that will be available for short selling. Also taking on a few others. I will not go through each one. We would be here all morning. Thats what we have for the hang seng index. Three stocks watching here resuming trade after making a buyout offer for kaiser. 1. 0 is the offer. Profit warning here, they are saying profit should be down 60 . We have m. T. R. Which runs the metro line in hong kong, signing a concession agreement for the metro line. Using it 13 of which is the int

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