Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Street Smart 20131212 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Street Smart December 12, 2013

A good half percent, we are back to the flat line. Over three days if you look around e low was today 12 30 that was 1. 6 . Phrbgmarkets down enough you will find buyers. Year, you see the yield up because retail sales came in expected up. 7. If you have retail sales better and means tkpwroefrpt higher yields and a sooner taper lose interest in big go gold. There you have it. No longer all the fed money sloshing around. Selloff. That is the worst day on gold weeks. We go to the beg three. We go to the record i. P. O. 2. 35 billion. For shares and today. They are rising by 9 . We have seen consistent gains the session, not a lot of volatility and relatively facebook are higher on the news it will be as teradyne s p 500 instagram willnd let users send photos and videos friends and groups to be able to discuss them. Lemon looking for comparable sales to be little holiday quarter. Been looking for 8 on bad weaker results p. R. I think we may have had something to do with that. We will talk about that later in it means for hat that stock. Now the big story. Tech companies that are cheating on china. The past week two Tech Companies ave shown their shifting production. Google will plans for three data taiwan andsingapore, hong kong but scrapped hong kong doubled china and samsung will shift from china to vietnam margins and ofit gets lower wages. On is big tech bailing china . We are seeing this move out of china. Has it gotten too expensive . It is. T is what we have seen wage inflation. One great thing for local is they were being paid more. City where wage in a a lot of manufacturing is done 2 and the Companies Like apple and samsung are looking at ays to manufacture the next generation of smart phones at a close,ost and vietnam is it is a Great Company and the wage is about half or a third of china. That is part of the reality of any economy. That here. Ough as an economy becomes more sophisticated workers demand wages and Companies Often ill then try to seek labor elsewhere. It is the added cost. More sin take a confidential view. Cory if you are driving somewhere. Rising demand he for human rights of workers. Laws limitnding some apple says they have been having workers on hours a week and they are trying to push that down. We dont know what is going on Hewlett Packard and others and dell who do manufacturing there. Part of the sophistication of an economy. Become better off part of that means they will start demanding more. That is good for china because they want to create the middle class. So it cuts both ways. We know s the same day apple september investigateers to china to look at the reasons people died working in a factory including a 15yearold boy who was legally factory because allowed died of pneumonia is it yes. He say it appeared that died because of working conditions. Corey highlights this story today. D out of china does apple, do american sourcing so t are much product overseas in china need to be more responsible, do need to take ownership of the situation we are seeing overseas . Absolutely they do. The reason is there is the human rights side of it and the press issue that apple has been past year withhe some of the things you have been discussing. Side but s the human the business side of it. Five s why apple deployed people on a medical team to look this because they realize if they dont it could escalate. Magine if somebody else happened and somebody a month from now at apple had not looked into it would be a p. R. Disaster. One thing apple has done is they have listed their suppliers and they are holding them to we dont have so people committing suicide. We have people that are in safe working conditions. The key issue is about gross margin. We have seen apples gross decline because of wage inflation. Good for local workers. One big trend in smart phone is end. Trength of the low a lot of volume is from the low 200 price point. Ne thing samsung is doing is looking out to see how can i at a lower or 300 price and keep a gross margin near 40 . Only way. E wage we look at monthly differential, u. S. , china, vietnam, in u. S. A. A factory 3,100, china, 466, 135. M may produce amsung 40s in of phones in vietnam so oes that arbitrage disappear and the reason tag to vietnam no longer exist . I think that apple thinks bout this in terms of a decade yield, the sustainability and reliability of some of the suppliers. It is good for apple if samsung builds in because apple can look more seriously at that. To get ly you are going dichotomies and wage increase as ore manufacturers go and then they will finds some other place to go. Can youany other places keep going . I dont know. Africa is still open. There is also the u. S. We have seen some that. Onshoring of manufacturing coming back here. There is talk it could be cost competitive to manufacture the e u. S. And ship products. Productivity. For certain products. They will build a 3,000 but we wont see low ends products in the u. S. Arizona soing one in we are seeing some manufacturing come back to the u. S. But a lot building will never take place in the u. S. Positioned . Est is it vietnam . Evidence the best that it is. Places that were like china 10 years ago and undiscovered that skilled workers that are great with lands and a government that is willing to business to for move in. Apple p. R. Disaster that had to deal with and you work hold the ose and suppliers to high standards and if they dont meet the standards because theres another guy waiting. I really think that as much it is disconcerting it is appropriate to say apple is highlighting shoot when they to lose by doing so to the benefit of their workers. Samsung and everybody else is not talking about the issues and not doing steps is roactive worth noting. It is also worth noting this under tim cook and not steve jobs. Gene munster, google, trish mention mentioned google, they have gone to singapore and taiwan. We can talk about apple but here is plenty of company and we have seen intel and nokia moving out of china. What do you think of the google move . I attribute it more to their strategy in china. Three years ago they shifted away from being more focused on china and doing it hong kong. I think this is just probably all part of the same theme. Feel like they have laid their groundwork in china. Stuff is e samsung very really about wages and this is more about googles strategy strategy. Ic taiwan is probably the most technologically advanced country manufacturing. Japan is close but you are getting leadership in taiwan. Thanks, guys. New theme for next year. Growth. We will explain next. Gives going bal dutch a whole new meaning today. A theme is emerging for 2014. Global growth. Let me show you wha we have hours the past 72 hearing from a number of companies. Good l motors, we feel about the economy and their momentum. Iata the international airlinesion overseeing record Airline Profits 5. 4 more next year. And deutschebank a leap back to Global Growth. That is above 3 . They put a 71page report out about rning talking return to growth. Deutschebank has plenty of company. Stanley, chs, morgan all agree we are going to have a return to Global Growth next year. Before 3 . What i have done is shown you global g. D. P. Year over year and highlighted this flat line to zero. Above 3 . That is pretty heady. 15 years that is before the tech bubble. Barely above ere 3 in the 2005, 2006, 2007 when that ody thought everything was just fine with the world. If we get above 3 that is big deal. The question for us as investors to which sectors are going rise the most . We looked at the world index, Earnings Growth by sector. We tracked this and found if you look into 2014 financials are supposed to have the best growth sectors, 12. 8 . Ut Consumer Service and goods . E number two, 12 and 11. 3 we will throw out financials because a lot of growth in just the is still reinflation of bad assets on balance sheets. Loan growth. I will focus on just the consumers. Goods. S and there are two ways we can play there there. We are talking with staples Companies Like check, unilever. Ly, who iscretionary the guys luggage andcy louis starbucks, toyota. There are multiple ways to play consumer trend. If you have an economy 3. 4 lating and growth of you want to bet on the consumer. Know what that louis vitton stuff is. The theme is getting selected because not all markets and are equal. He helps manage 400 billion. That he held positions at wells fargo and private wealth management. Welcome back to street smarts. Lets talk about emerging markets. Certainly not a good year for emerging markets. Do you think next year will be different . Do we have something to look forward to . Im a little worried heading into next year. You look at what happened this year with once tapering was announced. E. M. , the line in white. You see everything is outperforming emerging markets. Suspect that next year we will see a little bit of the same. Strengthening. And as a result some emerging market weakness. Dollar gine the strengthening has it do with the fact that the fed is tapering so go up which ll means commodities go down and rely on markets commodities. First you need to look at the flow of capital. When Central Banks have said we are going it keep rates at zero forever. Investors gone it find yield. A ton in emerging markets. When the fed says well unwind just a little bit of this you see some capital come back. It punishes those accountants on urrent account deficits and commodity exporters are hurt. Do you want to be ultimately . You want to focus on current account surpluses and exporters. Korea, singapore. Think of the manufacturing exporters that are likely to from growth in the developed world. Sounds like vietnam. We were talking about vietnam earlier. Samsung moving there. A lot of technique business. That is a Perfect Point but hink of where they are likely to benefit. It is a rebound. Look at u. S. And europe. Think things there are going to improve over the next year and i suspect that for the second year in a row you will developed markets outperform the emerging markets. Stay with the u. S. And europe emerging markets . Yes. There is an argument to be made term. Pan near ong term we are in the sure if abe knowledge mix. The most surprise will be out of europe. Coming up Liberty Global looks abroad for a deal. Hat is part of our global outlook. We have more street smarts in moments. This is street smarts on Bloomberg Television also on tablet, phone and bloomberg. Com. We are talking about going dump splitting the bill but shopping there. Joins us. Chman iberty media might be going dump, jon. We are friends, we can split the bill whenever. You talk about cable consolidati consolidation. At the center of it whether in the United States or abroad. Liberty this interest global has in making a full of a dutch cable operat operator. As we continue a european buying decade. Ver the last the reasons are not dissimilar to what we have seen in the u. S. You own more of these assets you can cut some research e of those and Development Costs and just the realities of building up big infrastructure businesses. One of the key differences the European Market and the American Market is that since you are dealing with a lot languages depending on what country your assets are the cost more about synergy and here it is saving to y and also about trying control these sky high content costs that the Cable Companies complain about and keep getting into fights over. Nd malone has been the instiga instigator for more cable dation and companies are competing with the likes of facebook and it makes story. Obal cable has the challenge of being local when facebook is to more e available than a billion people rolling out more video and competing subscriber. We havent really seen cable crossborder. They tend to be regional. Way of the future we see Global Distribution companies . Challenge that the will be the language barrier. Distinct t has content. But here in the United States if you think about what likely will happen you expect that could markets, more global just the idea of comcast having such a large size and a lot of players being smaller relatively speaking, and because have fewer ller and subscribers the content Companies Like disney charge them more. You have to pay more for the conte content. Jon ehrlichman. Up next is it a new era for facebo facebook . T is entering the s p 500 next week. Facebook is the newest member s p 100. P 500 and faculty has returned with a vengeance. Of as managed a year profitability and shares up almost 90 and not one analyst to sell. Should you be betting on a new era of facebook . Our panel. Photo rning facebooks sharing app announced it is aunching the first private messaging tool. Is this product a game changer for facebook . Game changer i dont know an focusing on instagram is important thing to do. Think what it does with develop its really own service and with its own sort of user base that sometimes from facebook. I think that it skews a lot younger and the notion of direct messaging with photos on suggests they are thinking not just competition ith twitter but with snapchat which is one of the hottest star startups in silicon valley. Eeping in the platform of instagram could cause more it use it. They are thinking not necessarily to send ads but they keep people in an environment are the ads are. There are the risk too many social media platforms . Twitter accounts, facebook, linkedin, it goes on and on. We going to run into any is just a few that really survive . I think what you are seeing all things to the everybody social networking phrorpbl. Realtime short orm mental message and instagram the verbal tphrrpl. So i think you are seeing a differentiation by how the the social l use network. I think that is an advancement. What do you make of this . S p ook being added to the 500 and 100. Networking ocial company that you could argue king of all of them being added to an index. What does that signify is it of age uggesting coming for social networking and stocks. Facebook, twitter and linkedin now have three large cap social networking stocks. Huge k this is a advanceme advancement. Adam, what do you see in terms of stock price . Growth ou look at sales you understand. Ad re showing you Internet Sales back several months and facebook is in yellow. Coming up even as linkedin has google has been sideways, facebook is the winner. And we are talking about north of 60 . That is incredible growth. Why it is having the his. Corey, i guess the big it continue . Can it has done lots to increase its revenue. That is really seen as the future. Companies if hese you are going to lump them into the social Media Group Facebook company that is kicking off Free Cash Flow and making reaccelerate d revenue growth. Market seems to love everything. Cry a slight tear teradyne. But it shows you the way our focus on what technology from technology that goes in technology to technology that people use. Point. Good tom, it also makes you a little to your ed in that point it shows how the social networking space is becoming and we know once anything becomes more mature and top he business line is tougher. O, are we reaching potentially a top on some of these social media technique companies . Look at nk that if you twitter they have the advantage of being able to grow user base monetization. So they are at an earlier stage. About you for facebook i think be about int it will video advertising on facebook appealing sually advertising via instagram. Hey have done a wonderful job of building the mobile advertisi advertising platform. The future of ly video advertising . Is it going to pop up on the to watch you have whether you like it or not . Or give you the ability it after watching the first 15 seconds or so. Is i think video advertising where we are heading if were oing to get some of the tv advertising dollars it shift to the internet space. Stocks, 52week cart. When you look at faculty it story. Uch a you have the i. P. O. Back there at 38 and it went down and it get back to that we are above this up trend so we toward that alltime high. That chart looks pretty good. Come has been quite a back story. Everyone likes that. There. Leave it up next obama care is getting star treatment. How the white house is using hoeuldz in the latest for the latestod acceptance. Ron burgundy is so big that he is everywhere. The f. C. C. Has just voted on inflat phone w calls. This is a nightmare. Put up with o people yap being next to me . Ing next to this is just a first step. This is a preliminary vote. To public it up comment. You can bet they will get an earful. 32 vote. Some commissioners said they were holding their nose at this. To see the ant person next to them making calls. The uestion is, is this f. C. C. s role. What would the airlines role be once they have decided that this is ultimately safe. He technology is there for people to make phone calls. Would airlines then make the ban you have the department of transportation taking a look at behaviorals making a rule. Congress is also considering legislation to ban passengers making phone calls. The calls we are talking about would go through specialized on equipment, not through cell phone towers. T would only be above 10,000 feet and it would be an airline call if it went through and if we didnt see anything from d. O. T. Or congress. This is one of the first moves f. C. C. Chairman who says this is getting serious unnecessaryg rid of regulations. This regulation dates back to no1990s. He said this is about getting regulation. That is his bottom line. Obama care advocates are kicking off new enrollment with people like adam president. A rapping im in the Oval Office Call barack. Ident my critics get an attitude i tell them to stop, i tell them to stop. You need that new health care, sign up because it is hot. Hot. Up because it is command er in chief said im strong and i have the healthcare that has it going on. On this bli ails blitz. The white house is getting the word. S to spreads are they confident in the site or do they need people to come and help endorse it in a big way to get the word out . Get was just starting to drop it like its hot from day. G it in there all what the white house is feeling website, about is enough to start driving traffic there

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