Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Street Smart 20150311 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Street Smart March 11, 2015

Here are the stories we are watching ahead of the closing bell nomura is suspending a debt trader, matthew katz has been trading federalize Loan Obligations backed by highyield debt. The suspension is tied to his activities at rbs and nomura. This is according to a person with knowledge of the move. He is affected he is expected to plead guilty. This is for transactions backed by everything from mortgages to corporate loans. And though international is making a takeover offer for sale x pharmaceuticals. That is topping billions agreements to pay 158 a share. New york citys first new golf course in 52 years is scheduled to open on april 1. Now i know where my dad will be. Its accepting its first online reservations today. Its a collaboration between donald trump and Jack Nicholas making it the most expensive public golf facility ever built in the u. S. We have less than an hour ago hour to go before the close of trade. Scarlet fu is looking at the action on the street. Scarlet nothing like yesterday. Its downright touring compared to the selloff we got yesterday. Just one stock for example it was a Third Straight day of intraday point moves. Today, the move is fewer than 90 points. We are higher for all three indexes, but not by a whole lot. Financials are performing better ahead of the feds stress test results. We will find out which banks can return cash to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Crude oil something to a fiveweek low after a report shows inventories climbed for a ninth week. Rising productions still in the backdrop. Brent, up high 2. 5 , halting a fiveday decline. And just to wrap up what has happened in europe equity markets continue to be beneficiaries of quantitative easing. The stoxx 600 up by 1. 5 , the highest in seven years. The dax making another alltime high. So far this year, it has gained 20 . The cac is up almost 20 . If you convert that into u. S. Dollars, the gains are very different. Alix you love those conversions. Thank you so much. Staying on europe, its time for our big story and unbelievable slide in the euro now at levels we didnt even see when new york was falling apart just a few years ago. All of that from the ecbs 5 bond buying programs addicting verity by the end of the year. What is behind such a steep slide . Here to discuss it is Lisa Abramowitz and the strategist from societe generale. You were calling for 105 eurodollar, and we hit it. Were you surprised we hit it so fast . I think we have found out that if you want your country, to go down, the number of Interest Rates and quantitative easing is the most powerful drug you can throw in as a mixed together. It has been an amazing move and i think a lot of people put on derivative trades by selling downside but the big moves to make it cheaper to go short they have been stopped but that has accelerated it. We have come in a Straight Line from the mid100 20s without any kind of significant pullback at any stage all in anticipation of a fed rate rise that has not happened and quantitative easing that has just started. But we priced it in before and after. It seems like contrary and dont any that were left, are being encouraged by jeff dunlop saying dont try to short the dollar. Its just not worth it because realistically, its going to keep strengthening. You have the double effect from the u. S. , even if they dont tighten policy right now theres much more Economic Growth and there seems to be an acceleration here. Youve got the european situation and potential deflation, but you also have a qe program that seems to be working. Alix when do you see parity . Deutsche bank says by the end of the year. I dont have any magic way of knowing the answer to that. It could happen tomorrow. The people who dry lines you draw lines and make charts if we break through, we will be at parity within a few days. If we stop here, it could take longer. There is no magic time. The euro will have to find stability at some point, but first, we have to get confident that the greek crisis can be kicked more than 100 yards down the road. Second, we need to get optimistic about the european economy. Alix what happens if the fed doesnt hike in june or september or even december . Does the dollar sell off . It depends on the circumstances. If we all revise our forecast for the first rate hike three or six months down the road and have the same conversations all of us might get quite bored with that. I dont know these changes very much because the forward Interest Rate curve in the United States would not move very much. We would have a balance at some stage but it does not get rid of the uncertainty. The reason this economy is losing momentum significantly in one sense makes me more nervous about currencies generally. I dont know that the dollar weakens on a rethink by the fed as opposed to as sharp slowdown in Capital Spending as a result of weakness and corporate earnings as a result of the strong dollar. The rest of the world needs u. S. Demand to prop it up. At that point, you would have emerging markets leading the dollar higher more than euro dollar. I would not feel great about the economy slowing down. Alix is there anything that can send the dollar lower question mark a recovery in europe and a rethink about Monetary Policy from the ecb. If at some point we get to the point where we think it is going to work and quantitative easing wont last as long as we thought, rates will be going up in two years time. The greeks will get some growth and everyone will live happily ever after. That is the mind shift that turns this round. Im no smarter than the rest of you in terms of things that can happen soon, but i think that is what it takes. The weaker euro has to start helping in the quantitative easing has to start helping the outlook and cashing out some of the euro. Alix if we see some kind of recovery in europe and a weaker euro, might we see the same kind of velocity in money flows that we saw out of the currency go into the currency and other assets . Yes, to some degree. As surprising as the weakness of the euro has been in terms of its speed, europe has the biggest account separate these days. Ive spent a lot of time watching the yen be strong because of a huge account surplus. If the euro recovers against that kind of position and we rethink the Interest Rate outlook, you will see the money currently flowing into european equities and hedged in currency terms, you will see that come in with more enthusiasm and that could send eurodollar up sharply. But it is just a big, gray area. Alix we have seen a risk onrisk off go up and down. Just look at oil. Great to speak with you on this i would call it a momentous day for the euro and the dollar. Coming up, today is the main event for the fed boss stress test round two. There are billions of dollars at stake. Less some of the wall street bonus pool rising 3 to 28. 5 billion. Is this a trend that will continue in 2015 . I will discuss it with the new york state comptroller. Alix welcome back. Heres a look at the top stories were watching ahead of the closing bell. Nasdaq is expanding into energy derivatives. The ceo says it could undercut the cost of rival exchanges. He spoke to betty liu earlier today. When you look at the capture rate in Energy Futures versus other markets, it is quite stop it is quite stark. All in with clearing, its under . 20. The first the main competitors charge 1. 34 or 1. 45. Its a huge difference. That Ecb Governing Council members as negative on rates are not here to stay. He spoke about the ecbs qe program. The intention of the program is that we can get into the territory of higher inflation rates and higher expectations. That should translate into higher Government Bond yields. A former j. P. Morgan executives is heading a Virtual Currency startup. He aims to change the way traded assets are settled and recorded using bitcoin. Staying on finance, the final report card for big banks part two of the fed boss stress test results will be released later today. All 31 banks may have passed the first round last week, but now they will find if theyve got the green light to pay out capital to shareholders. Billions of dollars are on the line and several dollars as well. Im joined by keri geiger. Is Goldman Sachs the bank to watch . I think citigroup is the bank to watch. The stress tests are put together to see if banks can commit if banks can maneuver around stressful situations like interestrates going significantly up housing prices losing value, all the things that came into play during the financial crisis that put the banks underwater. Last year, several banks could not pass the second part of the stress test which is what were waiting for today. One of those was citigroup. Analysts, investors, they are all looking to see if citigroup can pass the line. Theres also a question if Michael Corbat would step down after this. It would be a breath of fresh air in terms of ceo accountability if that did happen. Alix water analysts saying about the chances of that happening . I think its low. The expectations are that they deployed a lot of capital to get risk controls together and bolster everything they need to do to get across the finish line. While last year was a bit of a surprise to say the least, people are pretty comfortable that they will get across the finish line. Most banks at this point have figured out how to get their capital ratios right and get their internal controls right and that formula to deploy capital. We did see that Goldman Sachs came the closest to falling below the regulatory minimum. I hairs wrath, it succeeded. The more capital in ratio, the less you have to deploy, so goldman might be right on the line in terms of what can be most profitable and pass the stress test alix . Alix what about the payouts . Where could we see the most upside question mark im assuming citigroup since their paint one sent right now. Bank of america had to restate some of their issues and there was a decrease in the amount they paid out. Dividends are big issue for bank stocks this year. Banks have made a lot of money over the last 12 to 24 months and shareholders are expecting there to be pretty good dividends this year. What about u. S. Foreignbased banks . Are they the banks that are more at risk . Last year, royal bank of scotland theyve had trouble with the stress tests. It is tough for european banks who are not raised with the u. S. Regulatory system to catch up to this. A lot of european banks are still trying to catch up and figure out how they need to configure their rich managed there management. Alix last week, the theme coming out was the fed was harder on banks with big Investment Bank units. Do you expect the same heavyweight to be put on that this time . I think theres no reason for them not to do that. Investment banking can be capital intensive and thats why theyre so much focus on it. Alix we are so excited. An hour and change to go. Thank you for the preview and we will bring you those results live at 4 30 right when they break. Coming up next, job growth on wall street how the Financial Sector added jobs in 2014. Can that growth the sustained . Alix wall streets bonus pool rose 3 in 2014. It represents a 1. 5 increase, so first time wall street has added jobs since 2011. This is according to thomas dinopoli who joins me now. Were you expecting this . The big welcome is that the numbers are going up. Weve seen it growing post Global Financial crisis. Right after the global crisis, they started hiring on the street and then it went down. Part of how they kept profits up was to lower the headcount. Now we see the bonus pool growing, modestly, but growing. Do we know where those jobs were added in the bank . We dont. Anecdotally, we hear about positions related to compliance. Cant and pointed with precision but i guess its a fair number related to compliance. Alix what is your best guess . Optimistic. The industry has such an impact on the rest of the economy. Two of the jobs created in new york city, one of the jobs in new york state, typically in the suburbs just look at the wage impact. About 5 of employment accounts for 20 or 21 of private sector wages in this city. So the impact of those folks spending their money reverberates through the rest of the economy in a way that benefits us all. We do this report every year because of the impact of our residents coming to the state. So how the street is performing and impacts the tax revenue is very important to us. Alix do you expect the payouts to change and put these legal issues to rest question mark thats a great question. One of the drags on the process has been the settlements no doubt about it. As they put that to rest, that will put profits higher and bonuses will be higher. Alix do you get the feeling that anecdotally, firms are holding back . It is still a challenging climate. Certainly the drag on legal settlements, these are great challenges that are out there. Everybody is not sure what the new normal is and adjusting to regulatory reform, which has changed the compensation model. Some of the bonus represents money paid out from years before. It makes a harder to do those calculations because we dont know from what year the bonus is coming from. Alix how much smaller are these payouts from precrisis . The average now is the largest since the crisis. In terms of employment, although they are adding jobs, it slowed down by about 11 . It still adjusting to the new reality. Alix what do you think changed most this year for banks . Its hard to make money. They are doing it in a new Regulatory Environment and fixed income forget about it. Whats the big changer . Profits were down slightly, but 16 billion you look at the years since the Global Financial crisis, three of the best years ever. You still have the ability to make money and if you want to retain people who can navigate in a difficult climate, you have to pay them. I guess private equity isnt able to snag them. Exactly right. Hopefully, theres a fair amount of good news in our report. Alix thank you. We appreciate you having here appreciate having you here. Coming up, how plunging oil prices can hurt and Islamic State militants. Thats coming up next. Alix welcome back to street smart. The euro slump is cushioning the oil and Gas Producers from the crash in crude prices. They will benefit the most according to data compiled by bloomberg intelligence. The companies paid a large chunk of salaries and rent in euros while earning revenue from oil and gas shale assets in dollars. Another board getting another member from lion capital, the retailers founder according to a person familiar with the situation, loaning money to them in the past pointing to directors because of the warrants it holds. Pharrell williams and robin thicke, ordered by a u. S. Jury to give up 7. 4 million in compensation to the children of the late marvin gaye. Lord lines was found to be too similar to give it up. We will talk about what this means for Young Musicians who want to sample older songs with joe libby. Stay tuned for that. 30 minutes until the close of trading, lets go back to the breaking news desk, where scarlet fu is taking a look at some of the mood movers on this snoozer of a day. Perhaps there will be more excitement after the close. The banks responded to the fed stress test results and ahead of that we are seeing rallies from big names like citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and bank of america, all of them posting their best day in a month. Last week Goldman Sachs came pretty close, the closest under some regulatory minimums where bank of america told us last month that they had demanded changes to some of their models. We want to tell you about shake shack, reporting its First Financial results as a publicly traded company. Can it live up to the hype . The stock is up 123 since its ipo and 21 per share. Sounds fairly cautious, their average price target is 10 below right now, consensus is that it is too rich, so lets go to the bloomberg terminal to see how it shaped shakes out against competitors. There is no pe in this category for them, they are expected to post a loss, but before is 754. The average in the industry is 35 point 82. Here you can see chipotle wendys, and noodles on the highend over 40, on the lowend you have panera and starbucks, below 30. Revenue growth will be interesting, they rose revenue 45 on average, it has dipped 14 , better than the consensus among these other restaurants, but very few restaurants hold a similar rate of growth. Only zoes kitchen and have it restaurants with 40 revenue growth. We will see how it all shakes all that shakes out, later on. Alix i got that wordplay. Pretend you do not love the shake shack. Scarlet i try to only have it once per week. [laughter] alix shameless plug there. Iraqi forces backed by Iranian Forces battling their way into the hometown of Saddam Hussein early this morning. Congress was asked to approve new authorization for the use of force against the Islamic State. Peter cook has more. Peter what kind of progress might the administration make today . Peter some progress on capitol hill trying to sell the authorization for the use of force to a skeptical congress. It appears they still have some work to do. Specifically the president faces skeptical democrats, who thinks the authorization may be too broad when it comes to the role of u. S. Forces. Skeptical republicans on the other side think that it is too limiting, tying the president s hands. Today members of the administration tried to ease those concerns, ash carter saying that the language gives the military the flexibility they need and Martin Dempsey said that it was suitable for the mission a hand. John kerry said that the momentum of isi l is being diminished. The president already has Statutory Authority to act against iso isi l. At this moment in time this would dispel dou

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