Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Street Smart 20150409 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Street Smart April 9, 2015

Real estate portfolio worth as much as 30 billion to blackstone and wells fargo according to a person with knowledge of the matter. An agreement could be reached as soon as tomorrow. The firm says credit sius may shut down the government that and for next date foreignexchange business and put the securitization up for sale to an american competitor. Deutsche bank says credit suites may scale back their fixed income business in emerging markets. John paulson has merger strategy gains 10 this year thanks to consolidation among drugmakers. Bloomberg has learned the firm posting again last month using leverage to is using leverage to amplify returns. And has declined from a peak of 38 million in 2011. We have less than an hour to go before the close of trading. Scarlet fu is looking at the action on wall street. Looking for direction seems to be the name of the game. Scarlet muted is what i would call it. We are getting a little bit of a lift, but this is within a very modest range for the s p, dow, nasdaq. A swing of 141 points from peak to trough thats smaller than the move yesterday. That gives you a sense of how muted it is when you compare the threemonth average. 50 points less swing in todays movement. The big action is overseas. A lot of people talking about how u. S. Stocks look expensive compared to stocks in europe. The stoxx 600 closing at a record high with german production rising in february will stop thats the latest report in a string of eurozone reports topping analysts estimates. Greece making good on its loan payment, country leading to positive sentiment. The big moves were from overnight in asia. The lets start with the fx side, the etf that tracks chinese stocks. The hong kong etf is doing well but the hang seng index closed up 2. 7 . Regulators recently allowed mainland chinese Pension Funds to buy hong kong shares, so you have a whole new class of investors for hong kong equities. Alix our other top story of the day, greece is repaying its debt, at least for now. The greeks have paid the imf almost half a billion euros which was due today. Now attention is turning to april 24, the day where greece hopes to reach a deal. Manus cranny spoke to the greek finance minister. A very long day for you. What was your biggest take away . Manus i think he chose to send a message to say constructive discretion constructive discussions, still more to do. A gala day, k and fragility. Equality, liberty and fragility. We are getting there, we are trusting one another, we are trying to do a thing and theres a lot to do. It is very specific. We need to prioritize the reforms we need to deal with the ill effects of a fiveyear catastrophic recession that includes nonperforming loans it includes a broken down circus of credit, it includes investment, both public and private, so reforms. And evil lucian of a longterm sustainable fiscal plan that involves three elements we need the Prime Minister or we will fall back into deficit again. We need a sensible policy for carving and private investment and that involves public investment, not from the greek state, which cannot afford to affect it, but the European Investment bank, from some kind of European Authority or institution that will help with the process and we need a discussion on the rationalization of the greek debt without any haircuts for anyone but maximizes the value our creditors will get back from the state. Manus the upshot there is they are still dropping over the horses. I love what he said we would not the fit for purpose if we were not repaired to take a little political cause stop this is a finance mr. That put himself in further, hes been coming here for years to the institute of new economics thinking and the discussion was very open, very frank. For you, look i lit up the eiffel tower for you. Can i get it to sparkle, not quite, but we are still here. And were off for a little supper. Alix you are making me blush. I can handle it. Thank you for sticking around. Manus cranny joining us from paris. For more on the ongoing greek saga, my guest has advised on greece us previous greeces previous debt reconstruction and the privacy head of nomura he has lived and breathed this debt drama for the last few years. I could not ask for two better people to help me break this down today. What did you hear that was different . Hans i think the biggest thing was they are changing the rhetoric these of the privatization. That has been a hot issue between the greeks and led guys at the other side of the table, the rest of europe will stop it has come up and number of times in negotiations and the greeks have talked to it and put some numbers down but there has not been a sense of how they are going to do it. When he touched upon is this is not in the we cannot afford to own these assets but we want to have a joint, private sectorpublicsector act effort on this. He is trying to split the difference to sell it internally but conceding in effect. Alix no haircuts but a deal has to be done. He seemed optimistic about a deal being done by april 24. What do you think . Guest they dont use the debt restructuring haircut anymore. A want to get a deal and i think they are getting close to the point where they dont have any cash left. They need a deal within a few weeks, so i think that is the pressure they are under. The big question is whether the legislation they need to get approved in their own parliament, can they get that done in the next week or two . Obviously, what we are hearing from the finance minister and Prime Minister in other interviews might be a little different from the local mps and what they think about doing these steps that smells a little bit like what they previous government was doing. Alix if the deal gets done, do they keep their jobs . Hans if it doesnt, they will certainly lose their jobs. One of the participants is the oecd. The person who runs that is a veteran of some restructuring and went through the whole thing in mexico. You have seen pictures of them and im sure they are coaching them how to interact but going back to the vote in parliament that will come up, it is only 30 of the mps in the coalition. You can easily make up for that. If it is pushed to a vote, you may have to have an insight, but on balance he will tack to the center and have to cut loose the left wing of his coalition. Alix lots more to come. Coming up next, switzerland he comes the first country to issue a 10 year bond with a negative yield, but who is going to buy it . Later in the show, i will talk to the creator of homeland one of my favorite shows. Alix a new year afford debt the switchs this was government became the first country ever to issue a 10 year bond with a negative yield, which means you have to pay them to take your money. But who would buy these bonds . With me to discuss it is the chairman from greylock capital and the head of Research Capital at nomura. Why does this make sense . Hans a lot of institutions can only by certain subset of securities. Those are typically the ones that will come to these regardless of what the yield is. If it was only switzerland that had extremely depressed yields look abroad but its such a global phenomenon that you are going to get 20 basis points in germany or get the slightly negative yield, it seems crazy. But thats the decision people have to make. Alix where is the money coming from . We see people go into it and wanted negative yield. Hans theres a slightly different driver in the euro zone. This with it is a fight to a flight to quality. They still have an issue of an appreciating currency. The euro on the other hand looks like it is depreciating. You have this weird situation in switzerland where money is coming in but it is a negative yield. People may not have an alternative if they feel this is a safe haven. Alix flashforward 22025 and it comes due at eight negative yield. What are we going to be thinking . What is the obvious thing we are missing when we look back a decade later . Jens i think on some level, theres going to be a real risk on trade. At a certain point, when people feel the world is going to survive, they will be racing for the high yield in play. You will start seeing more issuance come up with highquality borrowers like mexico, but every other high yield will have considerable compression. I dont know what the obvious thing will be 10 years from now. Alix theres also a fascinating milestone for debt with mexico selling the first 100 your government on in euros. This is in the first time mexico has sold a socalled sentry bond, but it is the first in euros with a 4. 2 yield to maturity. That was crazy to me when i read that. What did you make of that . Jens if i scan the Global Fixed Income markets, we have these low yields everywhere. Even of people have been pessimistic about what is going on in emerging markets now, the local currency yields are rockbottom in all of these countries. Now you can see mexico can issue this very low yield and euros. So theres a disconnect between what can you get from a creditor perspective and what is the sentiment . It just shows you when we have such a liquidity generation from the ecb and bank of japan there is a disconnect between where the yield curves are sitting and where the sentiment is. I think that is going to continue because thats not going to stop anytime soon. Alix it is going to stop at some point. The ecb will eventually follow the fed and raising rates. What kind of pain is that going to cause when investors bet on a lower yield 10 years out . Hans until that happens, you would be crazy not to borrow in euros. You dont want to borrow in dollars. This was currency might be appreciating after that big jump up. But why wouldnt you until you start seeing the end of the horizon . I will give you one of the examples that really illustrates this. We have been used to japan as the lowest yielding country in the world. Now japanese bond yields are substantially higher than the eurozone on yields. We have started to see money come from abroad into japan. Alix that is an unbelievable statement and it shows the Central Bank Policy and the repercussions we will have. Thank you so much. Coming up, the framework of Irans Nuclear dia hell is less than a week old and may already be falling apart. Details, next. Alix welcome back. Heres a look at the top stories we are watching ahead of the closing bell. Altera is said to have rejected an offer of 54 a share from intel, breaking off talks to be acquired by the Worlds Largest chipmaker. Intels bid was 29 higher than the closing share price on wednesday. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in two months. Last friday pass weaker than expected job report gets some of the blame. The 15 year is just under 3 . Muddy waters, the Research Firm founded by carson block released a report requesting noble groups cash flow and investment. They are the largest commodity in revenue trader and fell following the report. A potential road walk to the Iran Nuclear Deal breaking his silence, the ayatollah refraining from endorsing the deal says all economic sanctions must be lifted on the day an agreement is signed. That clashes with the u. S. s statement linking the deal with a final accord. Joining me to discuss it is hans hume, from greylock capital. Thank you guys for joining me. Do you think the deal falls apart based on what the ayatollah says today . Guest the problem is there is so much obtuse station. The real matter is that it has been brought about by Prime Minister netanyahu and the hardliners the deal is not even really given a chance to pick itself well to the negotiation. The Iranian Regime has come to the table because they feel the problem of internal upheaval against them, because theres an exit stencil threat to them. If the sanctions are not removed, especially financial sanctions that have really brought them to the table, the other problems are not as bad as the financial sanctions. Everyone i have talked to in iran feels the pressure of the brain of the Banking System has brought everyone to their knees and you have other extreme revolutionaries that control the smuggling that would benefit tremendously out of the sanctions that dont want the lifting of the sanctions. Alix the rhetoric continues all across the middle east. Iran the plane warships and establishing a military presence off the coast of yemen. To your expertise on the geopolitical conflict in the middle east, does it become a fullblown conflict between saudi arabia and iran and what does that do to a deal here . Hans a lot of people in the United States are saying by letting iran have this nuclear deal, it precipitates a new ground race stop im not sure i understand the logic. Saudi come if they want to bomb them, they just call pakistan and have won the next day. The shiite maneuvering here, the question for us is to stabilize things, negotiating something that stalls something in iran does that make sense for us . I think the Business Opportunities are obvious. Alix maybe not. What are they . Hans theres a big, welleducated population. Aside typical low income market a very welleducated population that has been a u. S. Ally for the majority of its run. The last few years have been the exception. It has been a potential market for u. S. Goods. In terms of what the ayatollah said today, clearly he has to Say Something to appease the hardliners there. Alix this is rhetoric and not real . Would you say this is rhetoric here for the hardliners . Guest iran is a very proud nation and the iranians although they have been sectarian and prowest they dont want the they dont want the continuous outlandish policies of the last 50 years continued upon the region. I think there is a certain amount of validity to the fact that they want sanctions to be lifted, especially the financial sanctions by the bank, other than that i agree that there is a lot of rhetoric. Alix we have to leave it there. Iran and oil, up next. Just because im away from my desk doesnt mean im not working. Comcast business understands that. Their wifi isnt just fast near the router. Its fast in the break room. Fast in the conference room. Fast in toms office. Fast in other toms office. Fast in the foyer [pronounced foyyer] or is it foyer [pronounced foyyay] . Fast in the hallway. I feel like ive been here before. Switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. Comcast business. Built for business. Alix here are the top stories were watching ahead of the closing bell. The Goldman Sachs ceo did not change course over the past five years, even as revenue and debt from trading commodities fell 50 at the bank. Goldman may now report a 7 increase in fixed income revenue thanks to volatility, Interest Rates and currency markets. Amazon has Cloud Division announcing a Cloud Service that will help give greater addiction and analytical capability. Greater prediction and analytical capability. Home prices in brooklyn jumping to a record buyers competed competing for a limited supply selling for a median of 610,000 of 18 rum a year ago. Just under 30 minutes until the close of trading. Lets go back to the breaking news desk or scarlet fu is looking at some of the movers of the session. Scarlet we have to start with oils rebound its giving a lift to a bunch of oilrelated companies. Its the only group moving up 1 . It is notable the stocks are gaining even as the dollar appreciates in value and theres a sense that when earnings come out, they will probably be bad. The stocks may actually rise. I also want to talk about herbal life. It is rallying through out the day. It got a pop around 11 45 a. M. And then settle down instantly moved higher. The hill reported the ftc commissioner praised the direct selling industry, in particular the efforts to self regulate and that article is starting to make the rounds. Herbal life is rallying but other direct sellers are not getting the same kind of boost. That could mean the ftc will clear herbal life in its investigation into the company. L ackman is the reason the ftc has been looking at the stock and has been irish. That might be another catalyst. Alix a possible end to it iranian sanctions create a Ripple Effect route oil markets and some opec members are scared of more competition and lower prices. Officials saying the cartel should reduce production by at least 800,000 barrels a day to make room for a run to make room for iran. Joining us over the phone is the president and founder of pk for ledger berliger. What kind of pressure do you think we will see for opec to cut its reduction . Guest we will see pressure from other members of opec, but saudi arabia, kuwait, and the uae have embarked on a course of action to assure themselves a longterm market going out to 2050. They are not going to do anything. It doesnt matter what live via says, it matters what saudi arabia says. Earlier this week, there was a very clear talk which said the saudis would continue pushing toward 10 Million Barrels a day. They are at 9. 8 right now. They would continue unless they got cooperation from a number of countries, not just opec countries, but say canada, mexico and norway, although he did not enumerate them but none of that has been coming. The announcement of the agreement with iran is that iran will put more oil on the market and prices will be even lower. Alix you are speaking of the oil minister from saudi arabia. What is saudi arabias power to use oil as pressure to iran when they are fighting in yemen . Can saudi arabia weaponize oil when it comes to the middle east . Guest in the sense that any commodity can be weaponize to the dollar by producing 10 Million Barrels a day, saudi arabia will put further pressure on the price of oil and it will cut the iranian income. Iran has already been heard from the decline of prices and i dont think they can to offset a loss in income from a fall in prices. Essentially saudi arabia is weaponize oil. Alix i love to talk about oil. Does opec matter from where you sit . Hans absolutely. If you look at the emerging markets and a lot of the countries, they have a link to oil venezuela, ecuador, russia. Its part of the analysis we need to do if we need to make an investment in one of those places. On the other hand my trader just follows oil like its religion. We have seen some volatility it is in a certain price range. I dont want to react to the iran accord because people who knows whats going to happen to the pric

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