Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140221 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance February 21, 2014

Definitely looking in on a read of housing markets, and we have earnings trickling out before the bell. Dish and charter. After the bell, we get noble group o. Schedule today, president obama will meet with the dalai lama this morning. China not so happy about that. Yeah, always a political pull there. Let me do a quick data check here. Weve got ukrainian bonds on the move. Adam johnson will have it for you in a moment. Futures up three. Everything doing better. 10year yield, a risk on field. Euro over the last number of days, 1. 3709. Nymex crude down to a 102. 35 handle in the last 24 hours. Still showing buoyant equity markets in the United States. Heres the ruble until moments ago, a weaker ruble this morning, 361 lets call it. Chinese currency churns there, not off the dalai lama, but off asian news, and again, brent crude over 110 earlier this morning, does a little bit better. We scoured the papers and the web. Theres only one story this morning. Adam johnson has it for us. Were talking about the ukraine, and there are a number of bullet points that are coming across. These are taken from the website in the ukraine that is being posted by president yanukovych. Heres what we know. Again, tom, were all reading these for the first time. President yanukovych urges a return to the 2004 constitution. He is calling for early president ial elections, though theres no timing as to those elections. Hes also calling for a National Unity government. Recall yesterday, we talked about the western side of the country splitting sandoff trying to form its own country. And we saw the bond market move immediately. Its been an ugly morning for associated ukraine market data, and its gotten better in the last 20 minutes. Bond prices up and the yields down a little bit. The yields falling the most since russia bailed out ukraine back in december, so clearly a little bit of optimism in the markets. Whats your insight . What stks out to you . Hans was on with us yesterday. Hes a wonderful guest. Hes the only american who has served on the debt Restructuring Company for greece. What are his thoughts . His thoughts are and i dont mean to turn this into a mercenary buysell sort of a situation, but he said if all you can do is just buy or sell, he said buy the ukraine. They will figure this out. You go long ukraine . He said you go long ukraine. Its scary, but they will figure this out. The country will not split much theres too much at stake. Europe wants to keep it together, as does putin. My insight off the bloomberg screen was when the kiev mayor stepped away from the president. That was, im guessing, 7 00 p. M. Last night. To me, that was great. Ian bremmer to join us here in our next hour of bloomberg surveillance. Adam, what else do we have . Lets talk about the announcement at the royal bank of scotland. Theyre going to potentially lay off 30,000 people. This is according to the f. It the t. This is a Staggering Number of people, 1 4 of the work place. R. B. S. Got the largest bailout in history. That was about five years ago. But the u. K. Government still u. K. Government is up for elections in 2015. Theres going to be pressure for them to get capital back from the 46 billion pound bailout here. Should we have a moment of silence for Meredith Whitney . She was beaten up like a pinata for telling people that would be 100,000 jobs or more worldwide. Understand theres a government angle here, but this is about retail banking. Its not 30,000 adam johnsons, is it . No, no its not pinstripewearing bankers going around the city. Theyre gone. They are gone. A quarter of their staff, thats incredible. Can you imagine if bank of america does that, the reverberations of that . Speaking of which, you look at wells fargo. Im going use a rough number, roughly 6,500 cuts since october in the Mortgage Origination unit because of rising rates. Theyre not refinancing. Jobs actually are tough to come by in the banking industry. I walked by their stage coach on third avenue, i just want to sit in it. You could probably buy it. You can do that. There will an loft people standing outside with you now. Looking at the fool. Its possible. No one will call you well, what is it, adam . Number three, were talking about president obama. Hes putting his new budget and by the way, whats surprising about this is whats not included in the budget. There is no cost of living increase for Social Security checks, and president obama had said last year he would do that. He is not offering it because republicans have not closed the loophole. Business as usual, guys. Its 56 billion, and he basically said republicans, im not listening to you, im not paying attention to you, im doing exactly what i want and the way i want it unless you guys do something else. Which is part of the problem with washington. Thats what everybody says. Gridlock. Nobody is compromising, and thats the whole issue. Tom, those are your frontpage news items. And again, well look ago the ukraine for the entire morning. As we look, its really moment by moment, screen by screen, the headlines coming out of kiev. The senior economist with Bloomberg Government, and, of course, front and center, i know the wall street journal gives it a big splash today. Its a political document, do pros like you just assume that in the silly season every budget is a political document . Everything in waumbt is a political document. Everything in washington is a political document. Theres nothing thats not political. Aye, its a political document laying out the priorities of the democrats and of the white house. Its been very contentious, but we did see a compromise budget at the end of last year, so we have at least numbers everyone can agree on, a baseline. Thats the biggest. So what does this 56 billion spending plan from obama actually mean . Well, first of all, it lays the direction of where the priorities are, and it gives republicans something to go against, theyve already laid some lines in the sand about what they would and would not compromise Going Forward on a variety of issues. So when we see their version of the budget and we match it with the democrats, well see exactly how austere next years budget is going to be. Is that austerity still in washington . Yes, there is. The government is not hiring. You dont see that. Thats one of the places you see it the most. Can i rip up the script here, adam . You can help me here. The vector on the budget has been outstanding as a percentage of g. D. P. Its falling. In other words, the u. S. Government is spending less money. Why is the president not taking a more aggressive victory lap over the fiscal situation of the nation . You know, its just it just depends on where the downward trajectory is laying. Is it in nondiscretionary spending . These are the priorities of the democratic party. So are we seeing decreases in preschool care . Are we seeing decreases in Unemployment Benefits . Thats not a victory lap for the president. And now we have to get into the subtleties of the politics and spin. To toms point, why is president ial approval right now near alltime lows, call it 42 , 4 , near alltime lows, when, in fact, the budget is some rippinging, why cant he capture why cant he capture the moment . Thats a great question. Im sure hes asking that as well. I dont think americans feel the recovery to the extent that it has occurred. The sentiment is lagging the actuality. Nela richardson with us through the hour. We are thrilled to bring you the smartest guy on the planet on whats called price theory. Hes the founder of culture profit, a consulting firm. But what he really looks at is this mystery known as pricing strategy. That is front and center. It wasnt the 1 windfall. It was the zuckerberg windfall buying whatsapp. Well talk about this through the hour. Can they pull it off . Does 99 cents work for mr. Zuckerberg . Well, a classic way that he should start thinking about this is a twopart pricing, like linkedin, so have a basic price and an advanced price. Or even a free price and then a price up but the bigger opportunity is monetizing that proprietary closed network of 450 million users. On its way to 600 billion. Exactly. Theyre really going to control the last mile to the consumer, right . Everyone is texting these days. Like an idea is a persontoperson payment, how easy would it be for me to text you the money i owe you . So ecommerce. And its a great way to use the network. T mobile has announced the plan. Do you think t mobile will be able to make it work . They dont have the knelt work that whatsapp does. Too small . Exactly. You are the pro on this. When you saw the headlines come out, of course you were watching your bloomberg terminal, when you saw the headlines, what was your gut reaction to this gut reaction . Overpayment. I dont think analysts have been thinking enough about the commercialization of the network, and thats really where the money is. Ok. Were thrilled to have him with us today. Really, a number one guy on nickels and dimes and how you price things like bow ties, which is a science. Its very pricey . Well, people want to buy bow ties. I only know of one who buys them. As im saying, very spnssive. Company news on a friday morning. Heres alix steel. Jamie dimon wont face a showdown at this years shareholder meeting. Investors withdrew the only petition that would have pressed the board to name an independent chairman. Last year he survived a proposal to split his chairman and c. E. O. Roles. A boost in pay for citigroups c. E. O. The bank hiked his compensation 25 to more thanned shds million last year. The pay package was for his first year on the job running the firm. Now the compensation included a 5 million cash bonus. Their profit rose 84 last year. Whatsapp and its competitors are hitting the phone carriers. They grabbed almost 33 billion in texting fees from carriers last year, according to research firm, and that figure is forecast to keep rising. The Firm Predicts theyve take away 54 billion as smartphone users look for cheaper ways to message. You have to think that phone carriers are not going to go quietly into the night with that. Thats serious cash that could balloon. Yeah, talk about some serious cash. Newscorp chairman Rupert Murdoch just got divorced last year, so he needs a new bachelor pad here in new york. Murdoch agreed to buy the top four floors of a building near manhattans madison square. Its called one madison. You ready for the price . 57 million. I looked at that. Yeah. But you decided against it, a little small . Well, heres what hes going to get for the money. A little more than call it 10,000 square feet. Its spread out over a triplex penthouse, and another fullfloor apartment beneath it. I assume thats where you put the staff. He can open up a bank at crith suisse. Its right next door, right . They can just wire the money updares, man through the tubes if you need the physical dollars. Murdoch will have floor to ceiling windows, wraparound terrace. How come when i got divorced i got a pup tent . Floor to ceiling windows, i dont like them t. Really stresses me out. It wouldnt really be for me. Well, use the fabrics. Id give it a pass. Yeah, by the way, wendy, former mrs. Murdoch, gets to keep the fifth avenue pad. Save us here, adam. Do i look british today . You look very british. Downton abbey in the next hour. The real lady is her name, going to be joining us. You can get her take on whether or not youre actually brettish. No, im not. I look like an american dork. Well, whatever. At least you wore red, white, and blue. Ok, a number for you 307 million. That is how uber has raised. I think thats what they charged me last night. Google ventures and amazons jeff bezos are part of this thing. Can the company transform the way we get around . This is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on your tablet, your phone, bloomberg. Com. Were talking uber after the break. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Terrific news flee out of kiev in the ukraine. Were following that closely. Ian bremmer to join us in the next hour. Im tom keene. With me, adam johnson and alix steel. Alix, get right to the next story. Uber, do you guys use it . Ive never seen it. Adam, are you a user . Ive used it. I dont necessarily like it. Its too expensive. Oh, interesting. Well, its actually the cover of this weeks Bloomberg Business week. Its on uber and how its trying to disrupt the taxi industry, city by city. Uber, along with other ridesharing services, saying its basically as easy as getting a taxi as booking a resmbings on open table or checking a price on amazon. Like, adam, price gouging has really been something thats been a negative critique of uber. Seinfelds wife had to pay 415 to go cross town during a snowstorm, and she tweeted about it, how upset she was. And you have no recourse. Its not like you can say, hey, i dont want to pay that, no. Its the price. Thats part of the issue in terms of regulation, because you dont have any sort of insurance as you might with a yellow taxi. Of course, boston and chicago taxi operators are suing cities. Youve actually written about this. Ubers price gouging is the future of business. Really . You like it. I do. Its important to emphasize that most of the time uber, especially uber ex, is cheaper than taxis. In boston, its cheaper. The question is, is this surge pricing really a negative for them and is it going to kill the business . It comes down to what uber stands for. Is it low prize or is it well get to you in five minutes . In other words, uber service. So adam, what would do you if you were the c. E. O. And all the sudden theres a lot of high demand during a snowstorm, and you cant meet your Service Levels at one or two . In other words, its a market economy. We live in a market economy much this is unregulated. If people are willing to pay it, you charge it more. I understand that, but somehow it doesnt ring true. Whats the compromise, raffi . How do you balance that . An economist said i think the max should three times the price. But the problem is, once you do that, youre going to hurt your Service Levels. Its a decision. I would agree, ubers sort of brand is everyones private driver. Thats not true during the surge. The most interesting thing in this uber article, in new york with taxis, once they hit their target of revenue for the day, theyre done. So in a rain storm, theyre done very early. So uber, in essence, is the only car on the road, and therefore, Market Forces force them to ask for more money. Theres a recent article where someone complained about paying 73 for 3 4 of a mile. You could have walked t. Or tried to hail a cab. What is this about . They teach this in fancy economic courses. Its about price discrimination, which is a valid theory. We see that on airplanes every day. What is wrong with an economy, Business Class and first class, in limos . I dont understand why uber is a bad person for getting whaver they can get. Well, i dont think theres anything wrong with it. I think what theyve done a poor job of is explaining the strategy. This week you talk about netflix, and remember what happened to them a couple of years ago. Then all the sudden their consumer ratings are high, and netflix has toughed it out, and what uber needs to do is explain the strategy and get people to understand it better. And understand demand, as economists would say is a use me, elasticity jargon alert. Its a massive jargon alert. But people will pay a little more. They might pay a little more, but theres a point at which they stop paying. You think the number is three times . No, they have an algorithm where theyre constantly flexing the multiple. So they are trying to figure it out by the minute. And revenue is growing and revenue is growing 20 a year, so they clearly have not hit the point. Well, if its profitable, well see more competition and that will bring prices down. Welcome to the friday edition of bloomberg microeconomics. Weve got it for you here on surveillance this morning. Unreal. The latest issue of Bloomberg Business week, you can download it, plus you can go to the free app. Its on the ipad, of course, and you can read all about uber, again, the latest issue. Fascinating, really amazing article. The number for you today 39 . Thats president obamas proposed increase of the minimum wage. How is it going to impact americas largest retailers . One retailer already coming out in support of it. Were going to talk about it coming up. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance, were keeping you up to date on kiev, europe, brussels as we speak, real doubt about the effectiveness of the new agreement. You see it in the ruble, spiking up. You can barely see it, but markets really move off each and every headline as they come out. This is a weaker ruble, as the e. U. Says they need to see an agreement. Lets get to the top headlines this morning. Adam johnson . China warns president obama over a planned meeting with the data llama. The countrys with the dalai lama. Beijing accuses the dalai lama of supporting the independence of tibet. China wanted the president to cancel todays meeting at the white house. Well keep you posted as to whether that does indeed happen. Still no sign of the winner in the 425 million powerball jackpot. The one Winning Ticket was sold in this store in california, 10 miles north of san jose. The ticketholder gets a year to claim the prize. The owner of the gas station gets 1 million. Not bad. Its part of a system to give retailers a slice of the winnings. Those, tom, are your abbreviated top headlines. Its abbreviated busy, bus morning. Heres alix steel. David brooks was talking about capitalism facing its greatest moral crisis since the great depression. He writes, facebook agreed to ay a price equal to 345 million per whatsapp employee. Meanwhile, the middle 5360 of earners has fallen to 45 since 1970. Nela richardson joins us now. What do you think about that, the widening dispar knit income inequality has never been greater in this economy. I mean, except before the great depression. Its because the rich, the wealthy, the Technology Workers are making such high incomes compared to the rest of america, where incomes are stagnating. So it is an issue. Is there a socalled multiplier from what all those tech types are doing in new york and in Silicon Valley . Well, except for buying 57 million penthouses, wealthy people tend to save their money. They tend to invest. They

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