Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140408 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance April 8, 2014

Bank of japan refrain from extra stimulus. They say the countrys economy can maintain its pace of recovery even after an increase in the sales tax last week. U. K. Industrial conduction rose more than economists forecast in february on a surge in factory output indicating economic recovery of a sword. In britain, wage growth accelerated in the fastest pace in seven years. Economic data as well and earnings, of course, we have alcoa coming up after her the bell. I know scarlet is focused on jpmorgan. Lets do a data check. Economic weekend. Futures churn, 10year yield is important, moving to 2. 70. Crude is still elevated. Onto the next screen, little more substance. The vix shows the angst out above 1300. Old back the yen, a little bit of a risk off field to the tape overnight. Here is a what they are looking at in ukraine. Ukrainethe currency of back 20 years. Lousy, week. Imf into the meetings this weekend or as another bout of weakness in ukraine. That is the tension of the ukrainian currency as they try to management. Dominate the discussion of the imf. Page. Get to our front we went to all the papers and websites to pick out the front page stories and the first one goes off of what you were talking about, the spontaneous protest taking place in Eastern Ukraine. U. S. Accusing russia of instigating this unrest. Eral hundred rogue russian several hundred rogue russian protesters. This is similar to what happened right before russia annexed crimea. The u. S. Says there is evidence some of the protesters may be paid agitators. Alexei am fascinated by the game theory. The idea that the protests an advantage to you two, disadvantage an advantage to putin or disadvantage . And dont forget about moldova. Use all bloomberg headline on moldova. The bloomberg headline on moldova. Nsnistria, a little russian sliver of moldova. We make jokes about it but it is the respect they want to join russia much the way crimea did. It is a selfproclaimed republic at this point. Moldovan efforts to cozy up to the ooh much as the ukraine did is threatening the survival. Richard falkenrath will join us for the entire 7 00 hour. Banks are getting ready to report their firstquarter earnings number and citigroup will miss a key possible profitability target after the fed rejected a plan to return cash to show holders. This was return for tangible equity. This is not a headline number. It is a way for investors to compare the profitability of one bank to another. A big deal for michael corbett, the ceo. He is a credibility ceo. He came in to correct the mistakes on the likes of vikram pandit, for example, or even before him, sandy weil. And the first 15 months under mr. Corbat went well and then they uncovered a 40 million fraud and then they failed a stress test for the second time in three years. Each bank are you most focused on . I think you have to look at the two banks reporting first. Wells fargo, because it is emblematic of how to run a bank will. You could argue that an quibble with certain things. Maybe too large a share of the u. S. Mortgage industry. Has produce more Revenue Growth than other banks. Just a quick note, this citigroup also severally agreed to settle claims. It will take a 100 million charge in the First Quarter. I want to get to the final frontpage story. A huge verdict by federal court jury in louisiana. And a japan cup they were ordered to pay 9 billion in punitive damages. This is the seventh largest award in u. S. History, the Companies Hit the cancer risk of a drug in the u. S. It will probably be reduced because the Supreme Court said punitive verdict must be proportional to compensatory damages and in this case the plaintiff got about 1. 5 million. The they can appeal. That is our front page stories. Lets get started. Week after the bold predictions of december. They adjust, recalibrate and they polish their crystal ball. From citigroup, the proprietary measure your stments into lets go to your important kovicht out of tobias lev in his Research Note at citigroup. It is not earnings, it is not revenues, it is not cash flows. On the brighter side, florida appears to be the clients favorite to take the and cw championship, but there still seems to be support for a surprise ending too. You go right to the heart of it. Your world is not too much different than picking brackets, is it . Whats my world is not at all of picking brackets. I come from a long line of short people. I dont play basketball. I am more hockey. I know you are or hockey, but within this, gaining the stock market is not much different than picking the final four . Quintillion possibility of getting the bracket right it is probably a little more difficult than looking at various factors that historically had important impact on markets. What have you learned from your survey . Investors continue to be bullish. As theye not as bullish were at other points. One of the questions we asked investors is whether they thought there was a high rub ability of 20 gain or decline. What they are telling us is it is almost an even split. We have not seen it in about two years. They have been generally more bullish about the markets. They are a little less convinced of the direction right now. We have seenions in the high growth momentum stop, innovative disrupters. ,ou think of the biotech stocks the Cloud Computing names, social media. I think people are worried about how it could spread. In your surveys you found the u. S. Is once again the most favored investment destination in the world. Why is that, even after the rally that has driven stocks this type and all this question marks about the momentum trade . Two different factors. One of them reflects the issue of where do they think there is growth coming about. Europe is turning but turning very slowly. Japan, there have been new concerns about. Certainly emerging markets, a whole bunch of concerns. The u. S. Seemed closest to i help hate this term escape velocity. And investors react. As the u. S. Market have done better, particularly in the latter part of last year and early part of this year, they just kind of responded and said, ok melissa will continue. They get caught up in the momentum as well. Little interested in a historical perspective. When you talk about the shift of sentiment, people growing more bullish or less bullish relative to each other, on the prospects for the stock market, how ofurate a predictor of that the future . When you look at sector preferences for example, they like i. T. , they like financial industrials, in that order historically when i look back over seven or eight years, those survey points are often viewed as a contrarian perspective. Way has not been the better to play this. Investors have told us what they like and other words, listen to the crowd. Right, follow the trend, follow the flow and dont try to fight against the. Vitch joining us and later we will delve into the dichotomy of the hightech flyers coming back to earth and some of the blue chips doing a little bit better than good. Right now on this tuesday, company news. We are not done with banks because barclays settling the first libor rigging case in the u. K. , striking a deal with Home Care Provider who accused it of selling products link to the rate. Seen as a test on whether customers can sue banks over manipulation of rates. Postingand south korea a second straight drop in quarterly profit. Weakening demand in highend smartphones. The accountant on the fifth iteration of the galaxy asked to boost sales. It goes on sale this friday. They cut back a marketing of that phone to keep margin stable. Nbc back in first place. It will close out the tv season with the biggest audience of viewers ages 1849 in primetime, at least according to the ceo. He says the wind says the network is gone from fourth place to first place. It was boosted by coverage of the Winter Olympics on sunday night for all. Football. Did you watch the ncaa basketball final . To sleep, woke up, and watched it. Connecticut the the odds and beat the favorite to win the championship. The huskies surprised kentucky to win their second title in four years. Most outstanding player scored 22 points. At the start of march madness las vegas said connecticut had 100 to one odds to win it all. From kentucky said it was amazing, the young players. Of the kentucky guys were all freshmen. They have more years ahead to come back. Au conns women could make it week to remember because they will be playing as well. They will tipoff against notre dame. And they played in front of two president s. I thought it was great to see president bush and clinton sitting together. Having laughs. Which is great. Company newsre our stories and the sports event in the morning before we turn our attention to hockey because we are all a bunch of hockey fans. And maybe ends. For those not from canada,levkovich is barely on speaking terms with Erik Schatzker. Laxity happy about. To be happy about. Coming up, we will dig the burden to the samsung earnings. What does it mean for the Smartphone Market . You are watching bloomberg surveillance. We are on Bloomberg Television, also streaming on your tablet, your smartphone. And dont forget about us on bloomberg. Com. Good morning, everyone. Bob saget will be with us. With pimm fox 5 00 p. M. This afternoon. A documentary a he was trying to tell the worlds dirtiest joke. I dont remember what it was but it was a big hit. Just talking about the worlds dirtiest joke . The if we actually got worlds dirtiest joke. Qwest coming up next this is bloomberg surveillance. And erikkeene schatzker and scarlet fu as well. An Interesting Company for the morning. Of Cupertino Samsung reported Unaudited Results for the quarter and posted a second straight drop in quarterly profit. Operating rocket fell a little bit higher than analysts were looking for but sales missed estimates. The story here, not just for samsung but for apple, highend Product Sales are slowing down because of market saturation and increased competition from lower and smartphone makers let the chinese device makers. The stalled demand lower prices. The First Quarter is typically a week selling season for all tech companies. You wonder how much of this will set the tone for the rest of the year. It may just be an anomaly but we do know samsung will be launching the products in the next couple of weeks. Samsung galaxy s5. Do any of you use it . Your wife does. Usere is the only galaxy in the house. She battles of consulate. We cant face time with her, which may be a positive sometimes. [laughter] surveillance exclusive. The home life of tobias levkovic h. Thepgrading tuning s5, average selling price might be slowing down. By not fascinated knowing what samsung is. Multinationals i have a handle of bhp billiton from australia but samsung is an enigma. Is it supposed to be that way . Is in a lot of homes today and a lot of hotels in terms of the tvs you are turning on. I admit, we have samsung tvs in our home. Lg drive it. I think samsung has been a better job. I think you are more connected than you realize because the particular phone are samsung manufactured. In the apple phone an ipad . Yes, they had this frenemy relationship for a long time. They continue to play out. What the bank of montreal say . If they maintain their outperform rating. They talk about average selling price looking this more quarter because of the increased competition. Theyre looking ahead and wanting s5 lunch will mean. I am not big on product mania, but the whole move around the apple stuff will be fascinating. Iphone with at an larger screen. This time for real, it could be a real revolution. I just find it fascinating apple felt the pressure from samsung and both are feeling pressure from the lower end cell phone makers. It goes around and round. It is a value proposition. Our you willing to trade up to the next greatest s5 in the case of galaxy or do you need the iphone six . How much are you willing to pay for it . Whats get a bigger screen to compete with someone with a think theren i has been an interesting debate between old tech and new tech. It is not that old tech was really cheaper. Very quickly, the only blackberry user in new york city, Erik Schatzker. You have a blackberry. I dont just have a blackberry. There are lots of people with a blackberry i have a blackberry with a virtual keyboard and they may be the only guy in new york city that has one. Is it because you are a virtual canadian . I am a real canadian. Electorate is from canada. I dont, you dont. I actually do. We outnumber you. Canadians taking over america continues. Coming up in the next hour, eh, we would talk about the future of Nuclear Energy with the head of the countrys largest operator of nuclear plants. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television, streaming on your tablet, smartphone, and bloomberg. Com. Good morning, everyone. Im tom keene. With me, scarlet fu. Joining me this morning, Erik Schatzker. Top headlines. Lets start again with russia telling ukraine to stop all military preparations in the east or risk a civil war. After ukraine sent Police Forces in eastern regions to stop progress in protest. Demonstrators seized government buildings in some cities. The u. S. Has accused russia of full minting the unrest. The u. S. Is warning china on the yuan. Says they official u. S. Would have serious concerns if a recent weakness is a sign china moved away from a market determined exchange rate. The yield on is falling 2. 5 against the dollar since midfebruary. In san francisco, a smart car flipping spray. Police are looking for vandals afflict poor little cars onto their sides in their rooms. Police are trying to determine whether the flippings are a prank or an example of growing tension among some residents blame the Tech Industry for the rising cost of living in san francisco. Carto take turns to smart flipping. Can you fit into one of those . I cant fit into one. My basic fear is a flip and it rolls down the hill. It is san francisco. It is possible. That is incredible. Down lombard street. Or whatever. It is ugly. That will be a theme of bloomberg west at 1 00 p. M. At 6 00 p. M. This evening, on car flipping and tipping in san francisco. Lets go to morning mustread. My morning must read is from what happens to the homeless in a cashless society. It will cause the market change in the streetscape of the city. And handling neither laws nor custom has ever been able to fully eradicated the Technology Just right. Not just credit cards the digital payment. Guilty, guilty. I never carry cash and a cheat people out of it. It is not good. I never have any coins on me, i never have any dollar bills. I think we are all in the same boat. Be right back with more, including a look at tech stocks under pressure. We will be right back. Good morning, everyone. Im tom keene. Erik schatzker and scarlet fu with me as well. Let me do a data check. Slow economic week. Futures flat. Negative one is flat in my world. Crude is interesting, it will just not go down. Elevated. Not seeing Much Movement in prices affected by ukraine this morning. Our twitter question of the day, bsurveillance. Nk you for your interest is this the beginning or the end of the bull market . This bsurveillance morning. Lets go to erik schechter, with our gainer and loser. Removers movers. Pepsico gaining 1. 6 , the biggest gain in a month. The Company Announced a new snack mix. Combining chitos flaming hot and doritos chile limon flavors, two lackluster brand a single back. You walk into the bloomberg World Headquarters and the first kiosk right at the bottom. Htoes. Theolar city dropped, biggest drop since november and solar city trading at the lowest point since december 18th and is the biggest loser in the russell 1000. Here is one reason federal investigators will spend the next year combing through solar citys books in an effort to show the company overvalued sales contracts in order to claim millions of dollars in federal until things went bad. Canthael lewis says you trust the stock market. One thing you can trust before, cliches britt all kinds of them. Here is a hackneyed phrase that is come back to vote. Corrections are healthy. Mendes covers internet, media, and ecommerce and he joins us on the phone. Mr. Mendes, are you peddling that nonsense that corrections are healthy for the market . Like not fearing the reaper. I am not sure what nonsense you are peddling but i know, i know. Good morning, guys. Thank you for having me. Recently the s p has been trading above 18 and a half times trailing pricetoearnings. Historical average of about 50 and a half times. Certainly in what i cover most closely, internet media, ecommerce, and software as a service, you see price to sales multiples on 2014 revenue range, to 15 to 20x see them higher probably is not healthy sober alternative probably is the best thing. Bottom line line, it is all about valuation . For the most part. If you look at the kind of global macro environment, for some time the u. S. Market has kind of been the tallest midget, to use another hackneyed phrase. Yes, valuations are getting steeped in the u. S. And there is a slow, grinding economy but things here are better than most of the rest of the world. If you dont have a better alternative, it is challenging. Theat some point, valuations maybe get a little bit out of line relative to expectations with people having to deal with the uncertainty of a midterm election. At 1845, theen s p dow at 16,000 200. 16,200. Rollover i did a tweet, how low can twitter go . Tobias levkovich with us from citigroup, do you partition the highflying tech stocks substantially away . From the bluechip tech stocks not let the late 1990s by any stretch. Even tech as a sector is basically flat on the year. Thee have to really look at differences of where these specific problems are. I agree, the valuations are really out of whack on some of these highfliers. Ndez, does it stop the ipo market for tech . I dont think so. For the end of last week you can see investors, may be primarily retail but the stock does not perform that well without significant institutional demand. Individual and Institutional Investors have known for years, coming to market, these fairly establ

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