Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20140609 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance June 9, 2014

President obama is greeting the connecticut huskies who the ncaa earlier this year. And nate commissioner of the nhl will join us. And the commissioner of the nhl will join us. Then we will do lunch. At commodities after the jobs report. The s p, of course, what a closing. We are on dow 17,000 watch. Euro nymex dont do much this morning. Onto our second screen, the vix well under 11. It shows bull market enthusiasm. There is the dow again. To 1. 40. Bears scrutiny that would be stronger euro, weaker yen. Call it the antidrug and move gi move. Ntidrah this is just the s p 500 with some moving averages. Are two standard deviations of price movement, of volatility. The rail. S writing we are right on the edge of moving up, showing the market line with that enthusiasm versus where we would be if we were gloomy. In other words, let me try to wrap my head around that. These are two standard deviations, meaning 97 should be within the bad. The upper end of the band means maybe we are a little extended. But the word grind comes in. We are just grinding higher every day as we go. We scoured the newspapers. We looked at the website. Here is our homepage. Our top story has to be over uber. It values the company at 17 billion, of from 3. 5 billion dollars in financing last year. What is so striking about this is that it was not just bigname investors getting in here. These are mutual funds. Because its good, thats why. Uber is now worth more than hurts and best buy more than hertz and best buy. There are reports that revenue doubles every six months. They are creating about 20,000 jobs a month. Unbelievable. Love about the world never stops over the weekend. There were a lot of articles saying, yeah, yeah, its a joke. Article saying that, like amazon, just capturing the market. Here thisr themes morning is uber. Watch iscond story to tyson foods in a battle to acquire his shire brands offering almost a billion dollars more than rival pilgrims pride. Tyson offered 63 in cash per share. Valuing the company at 7. 7 billion. That is an unbelievable evaluation for that company. It is about diversification for tyson as well. Margins are so bad. Nothing can actually take place until hell share dumps its own bid for pinnacle. Eithers on contingent on phil shares. Sellingy of the day is wake. The idea is Credit Suisse is trying to move clients over to that unit and would like to sell parts to reduce capital requirements. Also should point out that they go pretty far and say that Credit Suisse has the clients but they dont share the information. Honest, i am not up to this. Fix trading, business is so hard. It is hard to make markets. Not to mention the fact there is greater regulation. I would say one of the big themes june and july is this where will we be on labor day for wall street as we come to the end of the quarter june 30 . And how Companies React to try to make money from this. By about octobernovember, there is a huge push. If you dont get it, people get laid off at christmas. Those are our front page stories. Wonderful to have you here. Good to be here. Scarlet is in therapy with mr. Lundqvist. It is not looking good for him. Nonbelievers. Scarlet, where are you . Our guest host for the are is a believer in the bull market. Senior u. S. Equities strategist at wells fargo. We are honored to bring you really Perfect Timing with this uber. Transaction Senior Advisor at author ofus and the capitalism in the u. S. Economy, he is truly one of the wall street great thinkers on the age of finance into the markets. I am going to call you a reluctant bull. Board,been, yeah, im on but as we marked 17,000, the cne end to this bull market do you see any end to this bull market . You have to be in this market . You have to be in this market as long as the price trends are very solid. You have to be pretty selective in this market. It will be tough to buy and hold the index as the bull ages and make consistent high returns on the index. But within the index, the opportunities are still there. Eager got a real not so much to the retail investor, but the High Net Worth investor bounced around by this financial crisis. What is the mood you see when you go out to clients . Still some reluctance. When i go to client meetings, what do i buy. He valuations are pretty expensive. Again, looking beneath the headline. It is not just a byandholdtheindex anymore. It is expensive to buy stocks. I am thunderstruck by the lack of enthusiasm. I just dont have a handle on that other than this weekend. It is not like dow 11,000 or dow 12,000 in 2006. The traders i talked to her so depressed even though the market is so high. Part of it is momentum stocks have been have not been holding out. Of course, we saw the crazy valuation which saw for uber. Uber. Ld see a 17 billion is it worth it . The critical part is that it was established by people who were buying a liquidity. Mutual funds that are Market Players that get to change their 17,000 do dime or at not get to change their mind. If they decide maybe it is only worth 12 million, maybe it is only worth 30 times revenues instead of 60 times revenues, that is the critical issue in this kind of momentum investing in technology, whether you are buying liquidity and you can change your mind or whether you until the environment changes. Tell you when a startled mutual fund is going that far out on the risk spectrum and bidding on and betting on something that has yet to be proven . When the marketoriented investors came into the late stage private deals on the grounds that they were going to make money on the ipo that had not yet happened, that was the time that we took my entire portfolio and give it to the market in 18 months. 12 billion. That is why im here. [laughter] is it lemmings off a cliff again . First of all, the point that you cant be out of this market, momentum investing is absolutely built into the market process, particularly when you have professional Money Managers managing other peoples money. If you are not in the market, if youre not following the trend, they will take some anyway. So momentum investing is builtin and the momentum will continue until it is being reversed. But second, on the technology side, you also have to remember 99 in 19992000, uber has identified that we are not through with the digital revolution. Andopportunities to invest the new services that were unimaginable. This perspective that there is no limit. That is what pulls and the investors who think they are marketed. One of the few people that actually gets what innovation means, we will talk about that through the morning. Would you buy into an uber ivo with a 17 billion valuation . It is a fascinating story. Uber and their ipo at 17 million. Companyt to monday news. Netflix holds its annual Shareholder Meeting today. And proposal to separate the roles of chairman and ceo. Both are currently held by reed hastings. Final pricing for the initial public offering, lloyds will be selling shares in the range of 220 and 290. 10. About 2. 15 billion. And kraft raises its prices of Maxwell House brands. In the greenains Coffee Market for the changes. The cost surged more than 55 this year in brazils worst drought in decades. But it is a bummer for kraft having to raise prices. Utah commodities. You drink coffee. We should care. Machine proudly sits behind the computer. I will drink cocoa the next hour. We have seen soft commodities go up this year while others, like copper, have not. On friday. Lmost 700 today, it is under 100. We are talking apple. Why they did it. We discussed with bill janeway as well as tina martin it. We will be right good morning, everyone. We welcome all of you year to our headquarters in new york city on a monday. Scarlet fu is off today. Right now, lets get to alix steel on apple. Apple at 92. Would you have thought that 10 years ago . Be lowples price now enough to become part of a Dow Jones Industrial average, cementing a transition from a growth stock to a value stock . Jonathan ferro has been watching this closely. Is this the next up for apple . It removes the obstacle. You drop below 100 and a price weighted index and they may even consider it. But what i will say on the dow, it is not automatic. It will not happen overnight. It could take 12 months. It could take 24 months. The last time it happened was in december. But at least it moves the obstacle. The culture still exists, if a stock is cheaper, youre more likely to buy it. Apparently, it does. To cut your stocks to 100. Steve cook wants to make it available to a larger pool of investors. That is his line. Still struggling on the concept that a stock needs to be a hundred dollars for you to buy a. I think there is a letter debate on this. Yahoo did a great job and the Associated Press on this today. To 1980, 34ck years, you are making 25 , 26 , honey seven percent per year. This is 27 per year. Cents. 0 nine that is a good number. I did the math. Just a little over 100. No doubt, we will be looking for that one. Adam, answer this for me. Why do i care that apple is in the dow . You dont. The dow is a flawed index. We all say the market is up 50. The market is down a hundred. It is a flawed and decks. Flawed index. You are the strategist over at wells fargo. It doesnt matter terribly much. It matters for the psychological reason. The dow 30, perceived to be one of the Biggest Companies in the country. Indexes does it create more liquidity . There are so few that actually track the dow. Weit were the s p 500, then are talking about something. If it is the russell 1000, we are talking about something that is an index that funds are attracted to. At the the dow isnt an attractant. Moving from a Growth Company to a Bluechip Company, is aptly Bluechip Company . That is a very interesting question. Steve jobs reinvented apple by inventing whole categories of new product. Hasoes seem that apple kind of moved into the brand extension business, sort of becoming a consumer staple company. Unlikely to see Going Forward the kind of explosive revolutionary growth that steve jobs was responsible for. Historically, this is what i recall from hansen pnc. The United Kingdom loves world price stock. Here at aave 10th of what you have here in the u. S. A public, he has 10 times many shares outstanding as the u. S. They goes back to the 19th century when it was all retail investors. It goes back to when, in the old days, you got a cheaper brokerage commissions are you want to be able to buy a hundred shares at a time. That kind of historical phenomenon becomes the convention. I am one of those apple junkies and i am looking at the stock now, i have to decide between the sharon and i found. Is 90 a nice feeling for me to say, yes, i like their hot xmi could buy a share. When was the owl a school when was the dow less cool . They will actually start paying dividends. Excite . 39le dont to 32 a share. It doesnt matter if it is in the dow or the s p 500. There is a special fund. It is called the retrospect fund. That way we never lose any money. We have had a 20 pop since this was announced in apple stock. Lets not lose sight of that. It has had a significant move already. Thank you so much. Miss bloomberg will be at the next big summit in california today. Emily chang, cory johnson will be joining the cofounder of paypal and many more of the very exciting day. We will be right back. Good monday morning, everyone. Lets get to your top headlines to begin the week. There was a terrible attack at the Karachi Airport and pakistan leaving 17 security personnel and airport personnel dead. The taliban has claimed responsibility for this attack. In japans economy grew faster than estimated in the first quarter. Gdp grew an impressive number six percent. Episode 6 . Gdp grew an impressive 6 . Novak djokovic on his favorite court. The spaniard now has 14 grand slam titles to his name. Old. 28 years think of the maturity and ability. I am the worlds worst tennis player and play is the only thing you are so tall. Clay is the only thing that keeps me in. The french open next year. It is totally different than the others. Gets slower. Its the balance. S p reachinghe record lows. Forget the nyse. Here is tom serling. Mustread ong bloomberg surveillance is sponsored by columbia management. Good morning, everyone. The president returns. What a day it was on friday. Remembrances of the 70th anniversary of dday. The president of france, the queen elizabeth. Good morning, everyone. I am tom keene. With me adam johnson. Scarlet fu is off today. In for her. Itting looking at equities bonds, currencies and commodities. We will get to this in a moment. Bureaudollar one. 22. It does not want to go down draghithe festivities. Forget the cliches. We are on the dow 17,000 watch. Gina bar in adams is a bull. This is a sea change for you. You make a real mixed shift in what you believe in. We still believe in tech health care. We upgraded materials. We are starting to move into later cycle sectors. We downgraded financials, downgraded discretionary. We want nothing to do with interestrate exposure. Because rates are going higher . Looks like the fed is inching toward rate hikes in 20 15 at sam point. The market is already rotating that way with the under performance of discretionarys. And we are seeing some signs of life in the commodities. Discretionary, for example, direct exposure through housing. Financials, very direct exposure. I think its time for a monday morning jargon alert. Materials, what is a material stock . In the s p 500, it is mostly Chemicals Companies are now. Dupont. You have some paper companies, some Construction Materials companies, and some metals and Mining Companies very but it is mostly chemicals. Why is it that most types of companies are so cold lake Cyclical Companies socalled late Cyclical Companies . Sectors likeate housing where recovery gains momentum. Constructionntial into Industrial Production gains. Lets look at the noncorrection. Early 2009. Dow from it goes up and up. We are in a self the 17,000 range. It was a big deal when it was the dow 1000. Janeway adapt to the walls of worry . There is a phrase you are never supposed to use and thats one i think we have to use. This time is different. We are coming off of a Global Financial crisis five years ago that was fully at the scale of what happened in the 1930s. This time, we did it with the Public Sector big enough to offset the collapse of the private sector when the banks froze. And when the central bank was aggressive enough to star refinancing the banks. Remember where we were five years ago and that we have only just now gotten back to the level of employment, five years later, that we were at in 2008. Do you envision the market is haves oreeds and the will we get back to the enthusiasm i remember in the 1960s. Every asset price in the economy is underwritten by a Monetary Policy that has never before been experienced. The fed holding rates are down at the zero lower bound, lower means that5 ish everything going on in the bond market and the stock market is conditioned on the feds willingness and ability to continue to hold rates down. The storedse patterns of market behavior relative to Business Cycles could be quite misleading at this time. This market is running beyond and apart from the underlying economic fundamentals if we could ever find out what they are. You just made an important statement. You said payrolls are back to where they were before the crisis. Except there is population growth. We are 6 million jobs to the worst. There is unused slack in the economy. If only, inflation, if only. There is slack in this economy. There is Growth Potential in this economy. I just want to follow the thought. It is if that is the case, then why do you think rates are going up in 2015, which is only a year from now . Because the fed is signaling that is what they are going to do. The speeches of the last six weeks to eight weeks, they were talking about tapering qe and when the hike is coming. You follow what the fed says. Follow the fed into directions to get an idea of where they think they are headed and the market is rotating. What is the market telling you . Sectors are rotating in favor of the fed starting to increase interest rates. Lets go to the note. Which would be a good question for gina and terms of looking at the divergence between copper and the rest of the stock market because copper is thought of, hey, if you are in a late cycle, that is where you want to be. We are not seeing that play out though. We are seeing the Industrial Metals. We have seen a recovery in ag prices and Energy Prices acrosstheboard the board but the Industrial Metals are lagging behind. That is a trend you can play with in the index. We love materials, but we love chemicals. They like the metals and Mining Sector for that reason. This is not a new trend. We know that copper is in a bear market. It seems to have something to do with nondomestic economic conditions. China is mentioned quite a bit. You play that trend. Why does alix steel always get copper into every conversation . Billiton,fs from bhp it is still a Mining Sector. It is the leader, isnt it . Yes, in terms of exposure to china, there are concerns about copper financing, which will have a huge impact on the copper market. It is a fancy way of saying that Chinese Real Estate Developers go out and buy copper and put it in storage because it is a hard assets and creates false demand. We will see a big negative for the on wall street, they never do that, right . [laughter] and rehypots hication. Coming up, a wellknown analyst is making predictions about the future of tv and millenials watching habits. Good morning, everyone. Right to our top headlines th

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