Into ukraine. The u. S. And European Union are discussing whether to impose more sanctions. President obama is set to leave for brisbane, but he is still in myanmar. He met with the Opposition Leader today. The president underscored the u. S. Support. We will continue to be a and i know you will be a Strong Partner for the United States. The u. S. Is trying to make a full and painful transition from the military dictatorship to civilian rule. According to the new york times, the president will refocus the activity of the nations deportation agents. On the president threatening to take unilateral action on immigration, even though in the past he has made clear he did not believe he had a constitutional responsibility or authority to do that. I will say this. We are going to fight the president tooth thumbnail if he continues down this path. If he continues down this path. This is the wrong way to govern. Spendingould pass a bill that would bar the government from carrying out the president s order. The worst recession in greece is perhaps over. The sixyear recession ended marked by a bailout unless tourists. Things may be better, but there are still too many problems to count. Unemployment checks in at around 26 . Economies in germany and france have returned to growth. Youre upon gdp rose a colossal rose a europes gdp colossal 0. 2 . An american doctor infected with ebola may be flown to nebraska. He will arrive from sierra leone. If he is stable enough, he will be flown to omaha tomorrow. A missionary worker and journalist of already been treated at the hospital in omaha. Seven patients treated in the United States have survived, one has died. Lets look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Churns. Crude, crude, crude. 74. 34 on american oil. The next screen. Weaker yen. Nt a the ruble blows right through 47. That is a weaker ruble by 1. 25 this morning. Brent crude is distant. That will be front and center in brisbane. But not as much as this. Lets look at 20 years of Vladimir Putins russia. Here is the stability of a good oil economy, a hint of capitalism, and another leg up. It was for a time Boris Yeltsins russia. Yes. This is where putin says, i dont care. And you see this over the baltic last night. You mentioned boats in australia . He is doing everything. Nobody is more scared than the baltics. They have a recent and vivid history of russian involvement. There is a huge russian minority in estonia. They are aware of their own memory of what russia is capable of. We are in by having mary advantaged by having mary childs with us. It is a little muted right now. The u. S. Looks pretty stable right now. Lets look at the geopolitics of the moment. Putin. El may meet with David Cameron calls for a new cold war. Inneed to go to hans nichols berlin. What is the hope of the western world . Not much hope. There might be muted opportunities for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande to meet with putin. Merkel was not by these shipsd entering international waters. She wants to preserve her position as a gobetween between the west and putin. Ad is she the vl whisperer . I think some of that has been pretty overplayed. She has been firm when she has needed to be. Only one with the authority. She is the only one with the domestic stature. You look a germanys 30 of the euro zone economy. She has told Business Leaders that sanctions are important. She is the only one domestically strong enough. Joining us on set, Richard Dobbs with a terrific view from 35,000 feet, research on what is going on in the global economy. What has mckenzie learned about the value of sanctions . Sometimes they work, but youve got to be careful. It is a pretty fine art. There were sanctions one, sanctions two. What happens when you go to sanctions three . Sufferserman exporter as much as the russians. There is a real challenge of how to deal with that. What is the dialogue in berlin . On your weekend, when you go into the bistro in berlin, what do they say about the value of sanctions . Muted, right . First of all, i would say the debate in germany is more concerned about energy coming into germany and that is where you get most of the hot topics around. Wideere going to be an Eu Energy Policy . If you expand the individuals on the sanctions, ive got to be honest, there is not a great deal of conversation. On sanctions, we are just talking about tweaking them right now. We are not talking about economic, industrywide sanctions. One of the other priorities in australia is trade. We expect to get very little out of the meeting on that. [laughter] every 320 meeting, there is a big agenda. Meeting, there is a big agenda. They are almost always taken as are thents effects sailing warships off is bye conversation an events. Sailing warships off the coast of australia is the conversation. Just watch the body language at the class photos. Zero meeting . I think it is a g 2. ,ormally when we do that story xiis just the obama relationship that matters. But in this one, it is the putinmerkel show. Hans nichols, thank you so much. Coming to us from berlin to get our surveillance started this morning. Does mckenzie believe in the new mediocrity . We are going to be in a low growth world. We had a fantastic 50 years. We had demographics driving growth and productivity driving growth. What has changed . We are getting older. Excuse me. This is a surveillance breaksclusive. [laughter] every week, tom makes up more children. I have four. Where italy is have disasters. Germany is going to have a shrieking labor force. America is good, u. K. Is good. Other parts of the world, it is going to be a problem. Every time we talk about Monetary Policy in japan, we should be talking about immigration. Japan has a shrinking labor force. There is no way they can pay off their debt. To what extent does population offset it . Can we get a step up and productivity . Productivity . That is the question. Can we get it through technology . The real issue is that we have the technology. The politicians worrying about . They are worrying about immigration and all these other things. They are worrying about putin. That gets us started. Greely needs more children. [laughter] im trying as hard as i can. It is not about me or my children, it is about the g 20. Is the g 20 relevant . Tweet us. Will the drop in Oil Prices Extend to 2015 . This is bloomberg surveillance. Streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Vladimir putin is watching as we speak. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Grindthe most interesting guy on wall street. Jimmy lee is the vice chairman for jamie dimon. Conversation, in the loop this morning. Look for that. Good morning, everyone. It is bloomberg surveillance. With me, brendan greeley. Mary childs, and for scarlet fu. Policymakers are gathered for bloombergs year ahead conference. They will be talking about oil. Opec cannot seem to find a brake handle. Matt phillips knows more about oil than anyone i have ever met. In the year ahead, are we going to see 90 crude . Not even close. We might see 85 on the futures market. , the spread is back four dollars or five dollars. We are basically stuck where we are right now. In the stance between saudi arabia, we have actually found the level . This game of chicken is going on of how low can you go . The saudis are perfectly willing to play that game, it seems. There is an opec meeting november 27. Lets go right there, right now. This be the most important opec meeting since 1986 . I think you could make that case. The rate of change we are seeing right now, what do you in your reporting believe that will be . Does opec begin shutting things down . It really depends on the saudis. They are the swing. You might see marginal declines, but there will not be a huge decline. We had 9 Million Barrels per day. At what point do low prices start eating into that . What does this mean for Economic Growth for consumers . Is this the Christmas Present for consumers . But on the flipside, you have these Junk Companies leveraging to the hilt. Always back to the bond market. [laughter] you have the chance to say the phrase levered to the hilt, why dont you put it out on the table . Oh yeah. We have never had to figure out what the price point is. Who can produce at 50, 60, 70 . We will probably see a lot of bankruptcies. These assets will not just stop producing. Startwhat point do we seeing cartel like behavior in the American West . We cannot have cartels like they do. Do tell. That is the entire premise of opec and yet, west Texas Producers have been at this moment before when they saw themselves speeding 100 Miles Per Hour toward the wall in 1985 and 1986 and nobody was going to say, i will be the first to cut back and lose additional profits down the road to save us all from crashing into the wall. I dont think they are going to act to benefit the whole. The same thing happened in the Natural Gas Market three years ago. They produced themselves into oblivion. That is exactly right. It is interesting we are seeing the same thing happen in oil. , when opec meets, lets say they all get together and agree, can they do anything . Sure, they can. They can really pull back the lever. But Everyone Wants to produce as much as they can. Ok. Fabulous. Can you come back on monday . Saturday . Sure. We will do it. Matt phillips is going to move to new york. Where are you . D. C. He is going to buy more underwear and move your. D. C. Is so boring, move here. Ok. [laughter] we will speak on the fake blue sky in beijing. Economy on the pollution. This is bloomberg surveillance. Stay with us. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. 74. 19. As, lets get to my morning mustread. Elizabeth economy on china. Keeping china in the tent is no small achievement. She wrote a raven note on the american rave note on the american strategy. The victory is this idea of china back in the tent. Does mckenzie say about the future of china . Growth will come down. They are adding a canada every two years. That is amazing. I like that. Is the growth come delicate feather or a bowling ball does the growth come down like a feather for a full involved . Or a bowling ball . They have to be there. This is where the growth is going to be. Im curious on how your the otherhina back up emerging markets in the area . China will continue to grow faster than india, partially because of the quality of their education. Chinas education is very good. You go to a school in india, the absentee rate runs at 30 . That is the teachers. 30 of the teachers are not present. Chinese efficiency. Right . Or competence. It is discipline. Look at chineseamericans. Their discipline extends down to the local governments. There are going to be problems. We work through them. Is not to say that china going to be able to work through them where every country has, we are kidding ourselves. Richard dobbs, the generous man to china. Where it fits in with all of the other countries of the world. The twitter question of the day. Is the g 20 relevant . Did we spell relevant right . Yes. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Brendan greeley. Mary childs in for scarlet fu. Lets get to top headlines. Deals. Iburton is in shares of baker hughes rose 15 . Hughesrton made by baker buy baker hughes and the deal may be sealed by next week. Airbus received net orders for the first nine months of the year and fulfilled its fullyear target. The commissioner of the National BasketballAssociation Says it is time to allow betting on pro sports. He calls for a federal framework that would leave the decision to the states. It is illegal in most of the u. S. Outside of nevada. It is really interesting. Adam silver, once again shaking things up. Finally, you can drop a dime on your puck and make some money. Im hoping that my nhl team will finally win a game. Im kidding. That get store next guess out of columbus, ohio. Economy that gets to our next guest out of columbus, ohio. The american economy. America is out front of the rest of the global economy. We need some optimism. Get do the gloomsters wrong . The economy wants to grow. It does not want to be depressed. The number one thing you get the rest of america can compete on wages to allow for return on capital and return on equity. Nobody in new york city believes this. You go to a deli and a pastrami is 18. Not paying 18 for a pastrami sandwich in columbus. Across most of the country, you are not paying close to that. That is part of the renaissance of Economic Growth. Productivity growth is much longer than the numbers indicate. Yes, growth has been read, week, but it has been a cyclical thing. It is not bad. We have Richard Dobbs with us. Ive got a note from mckenzie in november 2013, the biggest beneficiaries have been governments and nonfinancial companies. Households, insurers, and International Investors have fared less well. How are insurers faring in the slow interestrate environment . For Insurance Companies and other firms, we are in business to pay off Life Insurance and annuities 100 years in the future. It is difficult when Interest Rates are low and it means Insurance Companies with long liabilities have to diversify into a number of areas. You cannot concentrate just in treasuries anymore. How much risk to you have to take on in this environment . Run, if youlong diversify well, you are not taking on more risk at all. In the long run, they are going to give you a higher return. In the long run, you will take a diversifying more. What is a bogey . I think its from golf, right . [laughter] how does it make its way in here . You are both talking about investment. , do youto strategists believe it . Where is the investment . Where is the cap ex . We are seeing growth in Capital Spending in real terms between 5 and 10 . That is not too bad. It is enough to keep it going. The other thing we have not seen in this expansion is housing taking a part of it. If the gses are going to expand a little bit with the credit box. Mary childs, what do you see on the bond desk at Bloomberg News . Rates do not want to go up, right . Curious about your thoughts about millennials as the next generation of home buyers. The big thing with millennials is that they have not yet married. Their marriages later than usual. If you dont get married, you dont have to buy a house. They are no less anxious to buy homes than people the same age 1030 years ago. So it is just a generational delay. Is the pilot light lit for the American Consumer . It is better lit than anywhere else. Many of the baby boomers have not saved enough in their retirement. They will be living off their houses and if they can get cash in their houses, they will be ok. Nice work, boomers. This has been a big pitch at black rock over the past couple years. People have underfunded themselves. People dont have the cash. The normal Economic Growth to get a spec to the good feeling that you write about in your notes . Is it 3 . 3. 3 . It is more than 2. 8 . We need to see growth at or above 3 . But even that is not great compared to what we have had in the past. What do you have an columbus besides a hockey team that has lost nine games . A shameless plug for the mayor of columbus. Very wells has done as opposed to some of the rest of ohio, some cities i wont name. Of fortunedquarters 500 companies and a state university. They come together to give it pretty good growth. It is a great place to do business. It is. Lets talk about savings and growth. One of the lessons we are learning as that when you cannot expect growth, you have to save more. But we dont do that or think that way. As Interest Rates have gone from 15 down to 2 , we have seen massive asset price appreciation and a means they have got the wealth in their house. The next generation is not going to have the asset price appreciation. They are going to have to save more and consume less. As asset prices have been appreciating, people are already saving less. Nationwide is on your side. Is washington on my side . Been on the side of trying to boost the economy, but not necessarily on the side of savers. Help mary childs out here. It is not coming tomorrow, i think it is going to happen the second half of next year. Lower for longer . I think inflation is going to stay lower. Thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it with nationwide. Optimism on the economy. How original. Two optimists with us. I am feeling so good. Which countries have the best chance of catching up with United States . This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to our single best chart. Courtesy ofs Richard Dobbs. The standard model says we will drive with more productivity, more capital, or more people. This chart shows the u. S. Up top. Fabulous. India. He bottom, we have you have to have Structural Reforms and urbanization. When you take someone from a village to a factory, you double gdp by a factor of two. Where is the best nation in the world as far as productivity . When you look at real scale, the u. S. Is one of the highest. As far as Machine Learning ,nd Artificial Intelligence expanding the talent pool, these are some of the things that have been destructive for jobs in america. Absolutely. Is the prescription the same all over the world . Think about the impact the had on the monks are used to write bibles. Have you seen typists complain about using their jobs losing