Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150127 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance January 27, 2015

For millions of children, a snow day. The European Union moving closer to imposing more sanctions on russia. And escalation infighting in ukraine. Latvias president says the eu is likely to expand the list of those facing asset freezes and visa bans. Vladimir putin says ukraine is responsible for the violence. European finance ministers willing to work with greeces new government if the new Prime Minister drops his demands for the countrys debt to be written off. Europe may extend the deadline for greece to qualify for its next aid package. Word of another government intelligence Gathering Program aimed at drivers in the u. S. The Justice Department has built a database to track vehicles in real. And intelligence Gathering Program that involves storing hundreds of records about motorists. The goal is to fight drug tracking drug trafficking. In pro football, robert kraft, new England Patriots owner, says his team may be owed an apology. He says if the nfl fines the patriots did nothing wrong over the deflated football scandal the league should apologize. Fox sports says the nfl is focusing its investigation on a patriots locker room attendant. Those are our top headlines. Particularly in new york, we will give you continue coverage on the storm. The summary is simple not as bad as expected. Still serious with school and airports trains shut down. Equities, bonds, currencies commodities, worsening futures , 1 eurodollar0. Features 10. Crude oil, 45. 63. Vix under 16. 52. Dow, well take it. Ruble ugly off the shock of the s p downgrade. Lets go to the terminal. Stability in russia. The angst before down we go putin. Just looking at putins internal monologue, i got it, we have reserves. Wait, not enough reserves. We spoke to s p, who downgraded russia to junk. The reserves are a little bit more puny than we thought. What a terrible thing to say to vladimir putin. In davos and here as well the under report of what is going on in ukraine. What you said about the eu is a huge deal. Looks like the war is back on and ukraine. This time we are not making a frontpage story. We have foreign minister meetings in European Countries that normally mean nothing. Right now they are very important. Do i look ok . The big debate was buttons or no buttons. You look very apres ski chalet. We look like we are from a ski movie. We understand a serious moment, particularly up towards boston. 3 feet has become 2 feet serious snow in new england. Dangerous roads and falling trees. We will show photos. Walking in this morning was gorgeous, spectacular. I walked down park avenue and it was empty. I bumped into tom keene at 3 45 in the morning and we went shopping. Our studio working this morning. What i would say within the celebration of this is the exchange stays open. Something about a history of the markets, youve got to stay open. Richard rossasso taking a lot of criticism. Not only the exchange, a lot of bodegas. Making the decisions on what actually happened. For the wealthy, storms are fun. For a lot of people this is not fun. We had the option to have our employer put us in a hotel nearby. I was not in the four seasons. It was an option. The Long Island Railroad shut down. If you are an hourly wage worker, if you do not show up, you are not going to pay your cell phone bill. Restaurant people working last night as well. Lets link this to commodities. Jim is a different weather person. He looks at the weather and how it folds into commodities. We speak to him from florida. Many people on Bloomberg Radio know him from many appearances. What will the storm due to natural gas . Weve got to play this down a little yesterday afternoon with two feet of snow in boston. Not much more than a foot in new york city. That does not really affect the market that much. Natural gas is up because we are seeing more cold and storms on the way 5, 10, 15 days from now. The next short position in the market, i think we will see that reverse and higher prices. Do professionals trade a blizzard . If they do, they are making mistakes. Usually it is a shortlived effect on the commodity market. Sometimes it has more than effect on equities. A Generating Company people buy generators to heat their homes when power goes out, that is at 5 percent since yesterday. A lot of Energy Markets were down. The one thing you can do during a blizzard, buy heating oil and sell crude or gasoline, that is one spread that will work. You wrote us an email that you want to look at utility stocks. Buying on the rumor and selling on the reality. Unless you have a winter like last year, five snowstorms and three months of cold weather that it affect the economy. And the 2014 gdp. Youre not going to see anything other than a shortterm reaction. You got to look at a longterm trend, where can we find that . Possibly in the natural gas market, low levels currently and cold weather through march. The market is oversold and we will see a rally. I assume the utility copies have some kind of insurance against these events. Many find insurance policies. The biggest effect i saw in the bond market and utility stocks before Many Companies had insurance was during hurricane andrew in 1992 which wiped out florida and the gulf coast. It was more than impact on Commodity Markets than katrina. Thank you so much, joining us jim who covers the Commodity Markets. If you traders trading the blizzard. We will be handled by Bloomberg Television and radio giving you coverage. Brendan, you live in the wilds with the person with deeper snow. Shut everything down. I have to say, jim was talking about the market for generators. If you do not start your generator up every month you will not have it when you need it. A home tip from Brendan Greeley. It does have an impact, coach delayed results. They were supposed to do it this morning. Either way rain, sleet, or snow, you will buy your iphone. Tech,next. Enter our twitter question of the day. What are you doing with your snow day . Tweet us bsurveillance. This is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on your radio and bloomberg. Com. Good morning. Bloomberg surveillance from a stormy new york city. Casual today. I walked in through snow drifts,two and a half blocks. One of these snowdrifts got up to my ankle. We are following a lesser store and then we thought 24 hours ago. We will have that for you. Olivia, the big event. Apple earnings. 65 million, thats the number im looking at 65 million, thats the number im looking at. The number of iphones apple is forecast to have sold in the last quarter. Roughly the population of france. That should blow your mind. Cory johnson crawled out of bed in a snowleess San Francisco to preview apple. I saw you wearing a hat. Talk to us about apple. Is it about the iphone number . What should we be looking for . This is strangely, for the market, those who trade of this, a crucial quarter. A full sale of iphone 6 and six plus sales, a new iphone. Two years before that when we had iphone 4 and iphone three releases, we had big moves. The stocks sold off quite a bit. One of the things we might walk a from when we get results tonight not just the importance of the iphone, but the importance of apple and china. It will illustrate the position apple is in. They do not lead in market share. They have only about 20 market share but 80 of industry profits. China may be the biggest market for the iphone. Compare and contrast 89 billion microsoft versus apple almost double that one hundred 55 billion. Should we see a use of cash announcement this afternoon . I dont expect anything like that. Theyve already laid out their plan in terms of repurchases and in terms of deploying capital. With whatever they are doing in terms of management. One of the things in terms of capital, they have used it and clever ways to provide financing for vendors, Companies Like foxconn to buy equipment to make the iphone special. They have been clever about use of cash. I think it was notable last night that microsoft called an end to their buyback in 2016. Their buyback will end next year. I think that is one reason the stock traded off after hours. For microsoft, they missed estimates for revenue on licenses for windows and word. They still made 10. 2 billion. That is incredible, even if they are slowly getting out of it. I think this is going to be the last quarter where microsoft benefits from the surprise we had when pc sales ticked up in spite of all the moves towards mobile and tablet. Because they stop supporting windows xp there was a rush to corporate upgrades and we saw a bond in the Third Quarter and a lesser bump in the fourth quarter. That aided Satya Nadella in his First Quarter i see you. That is not happening anymore. In the discussion, we can see that the growth in unbilled revenues, what they do not copy deferred revenues call the deferred revenues. That is not as great as some bulls might have thought. A new period where sledding is going to get tougher. What about fx . Apple had to raise the price of iphones in moscow because the ruble sold off. Is the stronger dollar going to bite apple . Did you see it in microsoft . We saw it in microsoft, we are going to see at an apple and over the course of the next four months. Fourth quarter fx. For a handful of Tech Companies particularly in europe, Companies Like cisco. Nearly a third of sales are in europe. They are going to see some serious fx headwinds. We could be in for some negative surprises. A wildcard. We dearly appreciate your getting out of bed at 3 a. M. To join us. We will look away from the storm. Some storm data coming in from massachusetts. Plymouth rock gets buried. Richard haas will join us with a consult on foreign relations. His important essay on saudi arabia. From a stormy new york city good morning. Stay with us, bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Bloomberg surveillance, im tom keene. The markets will be open today. Even though much of new york city is close. A morning must read. This comes from klaus, he advises companies, Telecom Companies on how to deal with wifi. He wrote that they are going to offer a cheap wifibased phone service. Wifi services can carry a price of zero to ten dollars a month. This will have consequences for the mobile industry. In the studio, richard farley, a partner at paul hastings. Dressed with class. No sweater. I made shorture i i made sure i had a two inch heel. Youve spent your career advising companies. One of the things we are seeing with verizon and at t is the possibility that these tens of billions of dollars they have spent on spectrum acquisition and infrastructure might be a stranded asset. That is the history of the industry. You have to see which investments will pay off and which will not. Good thats an bad bets. It is a massive consumer of capital. It keeps us busy on the financing side. We will need to keep a close eye on where the opportunities are. When you are looking at wifi and spectrum, they are buying licensed spectrum they own the license and only they can use it. You are going over my head. Im getting there. Wifi anyone can use it. If you have a wifi router anyone can use it and it is cheaper. My sevenyearold question how disruptive is this for tmobile, sprint, for the broadcast carriers . I have a note from jeffreys saying they think wifi telephone products are unlikely wireless disruptors. At t, for example, is using wifi in stadiums. Much better than their old way of licensing. If you have a bunch of people, the signal drops. Wifi can handle that. At t is impacting areas like subway terminals. What they really need to do is hold onto the revenue stream. They are charging you 150 a month for access all of her. It turns out that half of what we download on a mobile device comes off of wifi. But we are paid 90 to a telecoms company. And the security concerns are interesting, too. Do we have the same coverage via wifi . You do in europe, tom was able to facetime us from the top of the swiss outs in davos. Can you do that in the u. S. . You cannot. That is why the announcement from cablevision is interesting. It turns out they have a wireless network. They are installing routers all over that do not just give you access, but anybody walking by. They are slowly building out. Do the people walking by use my router . They do, if you are a cablevision customer. That is what is going on. Cable companies are turning into wireless companies. Can people hack your phone calls . Anybody can hack anything. I would think that would be serious. The new wifi standard does have better security. Yes, anybody can hack anything. You have done so much on this for business week. The basic thing that all of our viewers feel, they are in the car, on a signal they are going down the road and the signal changes and then it changes again. How long do we live with that . Finally you have to restart your phone because the antenna is messed up. I would frame it differently. What you are talking about right now driving down the road and getting a signal, that is turning into a niche acase. You are at work with wifi and at home with wifi. The amazing thing where you can walk down the street and face time that is only a very small part of the way you are using data during the day. It is a very big part of the weight tom the way tom uses data, walking down the street on facetime. What about in a disaster . Is the signal more or less reliable over the internet . More reliable because the cables are buried. The signal strength, if you are near a wifi tower, it is better than from a signal far away. A quick data check, futures 10. The market trading today. We are expecting a slightly lighter volume. Enter our twitter question. What are you doing on your snow day . Will you be trading . Tweet us at bsurveillance. Good morning. Surveillance storm central. Three feet and boston has become two feet. At 1 00 a. M. This morning some snow in central park. Matt miller stuck in a snowdrift in bronxville. What have you observed this morning . You know what . Roads here are pretty clear. They have cleared off the platform. The metro north is not running and will not be running for the foreseeable future. They are still running test trains and work trains. The tracks are not covered in snow. To me as a kid from ohio i grew up and it snowed a lot. It was normal and not a freaky occurrence. I have one more question. How many coyotes died to make the hood on your coat . I am pretty sure they were factory raised coyotes and treated very kindly. We are going to drive around and see how things look. Im going to pick up Stephanie Ruhle, she is stuck where cool people live. Tribeca. And she cant get an uber. We are going to pick her up. I have a box of Peanut Butter filled pretzels from costco. We are going to see if we can deliver her to the bloomberg building by the time Market Makers starts. There was a run on food. We live on long island and i bought candles last night. [laughter] i bought shovels. Matt, my family is in nassau county, could you get word to them that i am safe . [laughter] no problem, i can drive over there. We can get anywhere. [laughter] matt miller, thank you from bronxville, new york. The governor and the mayor and other authorities have said get off the roads. I believe fines are involved. We are operating out of an abundance of caution. In europe greece tops the agenda. Eu finance ministers are meeting. A packed week for officials who will convene thursday for an emergency session to discuss the escalation of violence in ukraine. Jon ferro and hans nichols are with us. The volatility around the russia n ruble has that been priced in . People were expecting the move from Standard Poors to junk for the first time in a decade. A weaker off the back of it, today, a stronger ruble. The Credit Rating agency is an opinion and not a leading indicator. 68 rubles for a dollar, high inflation and a limited ability of a central bank to respond to a crisis that will head into 2015. The u. S. Treasury secretary jacquelinek lew said that its time for more sanctions against russia. Is there appetite in europe, germany . Yes. Angela merkel has been leading the way. In some ways there was a switch among german Business Leaders may be four months ago. Up to that point they were worried about sanctions. There was more escalation. It seems Angela Merkel has the Business Community behind her. Companies like adidas do a lot of business in russia. Siemens was hurt by russia exposure. Looks like the german Business Community is behind merkel. I want to look at what is happening in brussels with the meeting of the finance ministers. A wide range of responses. The minister from ireland says we might be a little bit more accommodating. Wolfgang schaeuble from germany says nobody is forcing greece to take anything. Is there a consensus . Of course everybody is forcing greece to take something. They are going to need another round of payments to pay off their debt. June is the next deadline. In germany, every day i will hold it up. This is the massmarket tablet. I dont think theres any new to the. Any nudity. Heres a list of all the things german think the election will cost. A lot of sensational stuff. Jennifer aniston on the back of the newspaper. [laughter] seriously, tell me about the people of berlin do they support their chancellor . Yes, 68 or 79 is the latest number. A public poll from the public broadcaster. That is the percent opposed to debt restructuring. You talk to any economist, imf, ecb economists say maybe you do some sort of restructuring and changed the maturities. Public opinion is the post, two out of every three voters. I thought Wolfgang Schaeuble yesterday was a little softer. In some ways, to brussels finance minister was the harshest. Saying no restructuring, greece needs to abide by their commitment. German support Angela Merkel. We hear about german fears of inflation. Is there not

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