Mutually beneficial agreement. An agreement without austerity ended bailout agreement that has destroyed greece these past years. And without the toxic presence of the troika. Everything else is not an agreement, but a surrender that would complete the euthanasia of our country. Olivia the devil is in the details. The two sides have to work on the conditions that may be attached to that extension. In ukraine, prorussian separatists are in control of the town of debeltseve after a withdrawal by most of ukraines forces. The white house condemned the fighting come issuing a statement saying rushs violations of the minsst the white house condemned the fighting, issuing a statement saying russia is violating the minsk agreement. Here is president putin in budapest. Vladimir putin these weapons are already being delivered to ukraine. I am sure that whoever delivers whatever kind of weapons, it is not going to deliver weapons to a conflict zone anyway. In this case, whoever delivers weapons, the number of victims can increase but the result will remain the same as it is today. Olivia the combat is eroding the latest effort to end 10 months of fighting that has killed 5600 people. Brendan in geneva, authorities raided the offices of hsbcs Swiss Private Bank in connection to a Fraud Investigation after reports of the unit helping clients avoid taxes through money. Snapchat on pace to become the federal most the third most viable Venture Capital ever appeared seeking funding that would value the company at 19 billion dollars. That would rank the mobile app only behind uber and xiaomi in the top three startups backed by Venture Capital. Tom disgraced bigleaguer Alex Rodriguez says he is sorry. In the form of a handwritten letter. The 39yearold sat out the 2014 season for drug policy valuations violations. The yankees offered him a chance to speak but rodriguez writing in long can script decided against a facetoface approach. He wrote, i take full responsible before the mistakes that led to my suspension. The yankees still owe rodriguez more money than god, 61 million. Did the newspapers have fun with this . Brendan he wrote in cursive. Which means he is old enough to have learned how to write cursive. Which means he is 40 years old. Olivia hes probably not on snapchat. The snapchat generation cannot write cursive he does have 654 home runs. Brendan he does. Olivia as a yankees fan, i want him back. Brendan the yankees are looking for him to get a 40yearolds injury, get that 61 million back and then the thing is over. Tom it will be a distraction this spring. He wrote a nice letter. I will give him that. In cursive, we do the him back. Brendan data check. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities are coming off 2100 on the s p. Risk on the screen. Euro pulls back a little and nymex crude churns. Next screen. Vix 15. 80 equity markets. There is the s p 500, closing at 2100. The ftse near a record high going back to 1999. I put in euroswiss because i miss davos. Weaker swissie over the last two or three weeks 1. 07. Lets go to a vanilla chart in the glimmer terminal. Bloomberg terminal. Looking at the moving averages i do not want to make much of this. This is an elegant chart of ever higher. Brendan this could easily be a chart from 1945 cap 1975. Tom bloomberg this is world war ii no, this is 2009 and up we go. A lot is folded into the punch bowl that janet yellen controls. Howard wort is joining us in the next hour from tim cook. Howard ward is joining us in the next hour from gamco. Ukraine troops exit debeltseve. 80 was the number given by the ukrainian leadership. Markets shrug it off. We need to focus on what this means for markets. Geoffrey dennis, global head of emergingmarket strategy at ubs. He does not ignore weak growth. In celebration of fashion week mortimer singer. Geoff dennis, we will talk about asia in the back side of this hour. Right now, europe, what is the level of recession or depression in europe . We think europe is getting better. European growth has been week. Tom weak euro to the rescue. Weak euro is helping, oil prices, qe will help. There is a possibility Growth Numbers could be better than consensus. We are at 1. 2. This is the euro area, not including emerging europe. Things are getting marginally better. You have seen some slightly better data. Things are improving in europe. Brendan you are not troubled at all by the inflation data coming out of the u. K. . I think there is no doubt that there are deflationary pressures across a big part of europe which you have to worry about. That is exactly why the ecb has been moving to qe. The bank of england, pushed out any rate tightening in the u. K. Until 2016. Its a slow growth. Relatively slow growth relatively low inflation and varmint. We are not looking for Global Deflation at all. Brendan can i point out how strange this show is. In my first vision i have geoff dennis talking about inflation in the u. K. , over here tom is looking at a pair of thigh high boots on somewhat. Tom fashion week. I am ready to go. Brendan the cognitive dissonance was too much to hang onto. Olivia tom was giving may look like really, really, thought habits . Thigh high boots . How much is the conflict with russia and ukraine going to hurt the German Market . Russia is the best performing emergingmarket this year, up 22 in dollars. Olivia in dollars the ruble has collapsed. Prices are up from below. We are nervous about russia and we actually think you have not even seen the really big impact of all of this crisis on the russian economy. You are going to see that. There is some potential impact on germany and other countries from the russian economy. The German Economy is picking up. Tom geoff the money question. You have been through this before. How do our viewers and listeners disassociate from the news flow of greece ukraine, this that and the other thing and invest with confidence in emerging markets . Is obviously very difficult. The news flow is so intense. Our view is what investors have got to focus on its growth of these economies and growth in particular of corporate earnings. We think there is a good chance, mainly because of Lower Oil Prices and the impact they will have on countries around the world, especially asia corporate earnings should improve. That is the longterm case for emergingmarket you have to try to ignore shortterm noise. Brendan you focus on growth. One of the things we have been wondering is how much does governance matter . Compare india to brazil. Are you looking at that or just economic fundamentals . You have to look at governance. The best shortterm is structural reform and you have seen reforms in india. The corporate sector is doing well and governing is good. In brazil you have problems on corporate governance. You have huge problems in terms of the size of the public sector, which affects the environment in which companies brendan you have the metaphor of petrobras. Tom once you make all your money in the emerging markets you have got to do something. Thigh high boots is the way to go. Mortimer singer is with us in television of fashion week. Lovely boots. This is all the rage. How does this happen . How do you guys pick what she needs to buy a month later . How does that work . What ends up happening is that all the designers tend to go traveling. They tend to get inspiration. They find seems that a pickup in society, seems that they pick up in various cities around the globe. They use that inspiration to also go in a certain direction. Then they end up finding a kernel of truth. Tom is that the kernel of the truth . You need a pair of boots . Tom i was olivia i was informed that i need a suede jacket. These are boots from a company that coach just bought. Tom is it a boring fashion week . Is it boring . Or is there a pop . Particularly new York Fashion Week everybody is excited. America is back. We were saying in the industry that is the United States of luxury. All the european brands are looking to the United States as well for the market. Very buoyant. The consumer is in a good place, particularly at the luxury end. Tom is the market here or is it people visiting to jfk that is the market . Coming back to the russian question. The russian tourist has effectively gone away. It has affected dubai, paris and london negatively because of them being more cautious. America has loosened, particularly their stance on chinese tourists. That has helped new york city. Tom he molds it right into geoffs world. As currencies go up and down, you get businesses coming in or going out. You could move on 5th avenue. Olivia i am trying to plan a trip to japan, it correlates to the yen. Tom olivia, i see you in a pair of suede boots. Brendan i am planning a weekend in dublin. Olivia if you are buying, i am wearing. Tom what else . Olivia a few words in the standoff between greece and the eurogroup. This is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on bloomberg. Com. Good wednesday morning. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Top headlines from around the world. Heres brendan greeley. Brendan violence in afghanistan has reached a new high. A human report says eight u a u. N. Report says the number of civilians killed has reached a fiveyear high. More than 10,500 casualties includes 3700 civilian deaths. The violence continued on tuesday, taliban suicide bombers in kabul killed at least 20 people. A war of worlds between australia and indonesia tied to the debate of two australian heroine smugglers. Indonesia plans to execute them. Australian Prime Minister tony abbott says his nation would be grievously let down should the executions per cp indonesia warning that no one responds well to threats. In china residents in beijing and elsewhere celebrating the final day of the year of the horse. Ready to bring in the year of the ram. Urging people to like you are as dozens of cities fight a battle against toxic air pollution. Those are the top headlines. Tom holland, merkel putin, poroshenko to speak by phone. Brendan perhaps if the ukrainian troops are out of debeltseve that is it. Tom hope in the Financial Markets over greece. Did Alexis Tsipras the group Prime Minister blink or will wolfgang schaeuble, the german finance minister, soften his stance . Here to help us figure it out is david powell. He joins us from london. Great to see you. It looked like after mondays talks fell apart that greece and germany were once again on a collision course. Is it fair to say that greece swerved first . David greece certainly had to make the first move in terms of requesting another meeting before friday. If there were no meetings, things would fall apart. You could say they have blinked first in that sense but they have not given in if you look at the wording day requested. Olivia the wording is controversial. What is the difference between an extension of the bailout and completion of it . David with the greeks semantics matter. The government came to power promising to get rid of the troika. They do not like they were troika. The eurogroup has stopped using it. Instead they say the ecb imf. They do not like the work program. They requested an extension of the current Loan Agreement. There is not a program there. When the talks broke down on monday, it was really over the use of the work program. Are we going to complete it or not. Brendan is the fight any more specific . Are we just talking about the use of the word program. Is there anything about the primary surplus greece is going to hold onto . David that is one issue. The imf in the troika wanted them to have a primary surplus of 4 to 4. 5 . The greeks do not want to do that. If you look at the draft statement turned down earlier in the week they did make reference to maintaining that. In the press conference, the finance minister did not really touch on that as one of the issues that led to the breakdown. He focused on the use of the word program that they refused to successfully complete the program as the draft statement indicated. Brendan we have sitting with us geoff from ubs. He has been nodding as you talk about semantics. David we are talking about extending the bailout or extending the program in the short term but we are not talking yet. Isnt that right, about what the troika will want from greece in the longterm. Our view is that they can reduce the yield on the debt, they can soften the primary surplus target going forward. But the longterm agreement is still going to be worked out. Is that right customer david certainly in the longterm, an agreement has to be worked out. It is more important looking at the next year. Greece needs 21 billion euros over the next year. It is finding financing for that sum. Tom there is soon to be two conversations. People like geoff looking for a workout. Which institution will provide leadership in getting to a longterm debt workout . David good question. I think the longterm of all of this is not really on the table right now. In the sense that what the greek s are most concerned about is the amount of the budget that currently has to be spent on servicing debt. As long as they can reduce debt servicing costs, extend and pretend. They do not want to be paying a huge amount to service debt. If this is correct, greece has blinked, not the europeans. Olivia david powell, our chief euro area economist. Tom looking at the equity markets. Howard will join us with gamco. A persistent bull. In our next hour here on bloomberg surveillance. Futures flat as we look at the beatitude of midfebruary in new york. Tom good morning from new york city. Bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene. Time for a morning mustread. Avec olivia. Olivia an explicit debate going on and friends about whether or not you should be able to shop on sunday. A day i knew you go shopping. A quote from Prime Minister manual valls, quoted by afp. Do we want millions of tourists to go do their shopping in london on a sunday . Essential to what is going on with Economic Reforms in france. Yesterday, manuel valls and his finance minister a menu out marcon pushed a bill to liberalize the Retail Market and open more stores on sunday. Now they face a confidence vote as soon as tomorrow and the country is up in arms. Onset is mortimer singer who is a french citizen. Why is it so controversial that one should be able to shop on sunday . This is the european equivalent of whether or not people should be allowed to shop on thanksgiving day. Olivia but it is once a week. It is a family values issue. I think it is an amazingly good thing. This happened in spain, germany, italy. They always want to shut down on sundays. In france they are trying to keep the tourists in paris. It is the most visited city in europe. Something that can help drive the economy, which is sluggish. Olivia it is not even about the french consumers, as mr. Valls said. It is about tourists. It is so polemic that macron has received death threats. People will find ways to shop on sunday. In germany there was a law you could only shop if you were traveling on a sunday so gas stations became emporiums and soda train stations. So did train stations. A few years ago, german shops closed on saturday except for once a month. Brendan you cannot go to the butcher on a monday. Olivia this is the structural reform everyone is banging the drum for in europe. Shows how difficult it is to pass in terms of domestic politics. I want to ask our twitter question of the day. What do you think snapchat is worth . Could it be worth 19 billion . Tweet us. This is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning, everyone. Our top headlines. Olivia go pro gained 12 after investors moved in. The end of the restrictions on employees and insider sales put 76 million shares on the market. They closed below 51 in new york. Last year at 24 per sale. The oracle of omaha is bailing on oil. Berkshire held more than 41 million shares of axon. Buffett eliminated a similar holding. Crude has fallen by about 50 since june. Indonesia has cut its key interest rate. Indicators down for the country, except for this one. Geoff dennis was in charge of the emerging market. Equities jumped last year with the election of the president for indonesia. Is this what we are looking at . Is that the effect . Geoff i think he has done well. He has taken the tough decision to abolish fuel subsidies. The price did not fall as it would have. What they are doing with the money is trying to expand the economy through infrastructure spending, health care. Markets had a good run. It has a current account deficit. Indonesia is a market that is vulnerable. Where are they on this path to vibrant consumer economy . Geoff Consumer Spending a strong and will continue to be strong. It is a fairly strong economy. Tom compare and contrast their low base. This is when i think is indonesia, we do not understand how big it is. Isnt it ahead of china . Geoff i do not think it is ahead of china. They are doing things on different parallels. The chinese growth story is driven by government edict. Now, it is trying to reform and bring through more Consumer Spending. Olivia says olivia there are a lot of Foreign Mining Companies that have gone in there and had a hard time with corruption. Geoff and there are issues. It is a good growth story where the growth story it is a good growth story. There are problems in a lot of these emerging markets. He is not the establishment. It was the former government beholden more. Brendan you talked about spending the fuel subsidy on infrastructure. Can that structure grow with it . One thing we learned in the airasia crash was indonesian Traffic Control was not up to emerging markets. Geoff that is the challenge these countries have. A lot of these markets, population growth is rapid. Infrastructure can be poor. Massive pollution problems. Indonesia is trying to free up results to improve the story. One hopes it does get better. Brendan what is the timeline joko widodo has to redeem himself . Geoff if you do not start to see improvement in the first couple of years, people will doubt the program. He has a program. He started well. Indonesia is vulnerable to capital outflows. Tom take us away from stereotypes of another time and place. Geoff it is a completely different indonesia. It does not alter the fact there are governance issues. There is an establishment that would like to be in power. For a while it looks like he was