Senators who sent a controversial letter to irans leader. What i do know is this letter was absolutely calculated directly to interfere with these negotiations p. It specifically inserts itself correctly directly to the lead are of the country saying dont negotiate with these guys because were going to change this. Olivia it has been predicted he will make a bad deal with iran. Crude fell today to its lowest price in six years. Trading below 4 a barrel before rebounding slightly earlier this morning. There is speculation the record oil glut in the u. S. May start to strain the countrys Storage Capacity. And the man arrested in the shooting of two Police Officers in ferguson, missouri, is said to have admitted to pulling the trigger but Authorities SayJeffrey Williams told him he was shooting at someone else and not at the police. A Prosecutor Says they arent sure they buy that part of the story. The officers were wounded at a protest in ferguson last week. A shocking admission to the heir in new york. Last night a hbo documentary about robert dursst appears to confess to murders whispering off camera he killed them all. Hes been subject to intrigue for years because of the unrevolved disappearance of his wife and killing after friend. Yesterday he was arrested in louisiana for murder after authorities in los angeles issued a warrant. In israel, Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu is truge to pull his Reelection Campaign out of the fire. Netanyahus party is running second in the polls going into the vote and is argued to make a political rival of israels finance minister to keep the supporters on his side. Whichever party wins will still have to form a coalition government. And it is time to fill out your brackets. It is march madness. Undefeated kentucky got the overall number one seed in the ncaa announced pairings for the mens basketball tournament. Duke villanova and wisconsin joined the wildcats as the other top seed in the 68team field. The championship game is april 6 in indianapolis. Those are your top headlines. Tom . Tom kentucky this year, there they are dominant as always. I read a wonderful article on the defensive nature of the game the game has devolved on to boredom and a raging debate to change the shot clock to make it more exciting. Like the whole thing is in need of an adrenaline dose and hope kentucky gives them the adreen lynn dose. Olivia you painting your face red . Tom im not into it. Its so much fun at bloomberg. We have 70,000 employees, folks, and some of them really get into this. Olivia i have a fun fact for you from the American Gaming Association and said this year americans will fill out more than 70 myion brackets, tom. More brackets than ballots were cast for president obama. Tom very cool. Anchor well talk about that very subject later today, tom. Tom gambling. Well do that later. We look at equities, bonds, currencies what a friday late and what a weekend. Nymex crude up, 44. 5 now, down to a solid. 7 . It has a real weakness and will be a theme throughout the show. The europeo 10537. The bik 16. 00. Bent crude is the headline, more than american oil in at under 55 a barrel and theres the spread of about 10 almost exactly and gold was over 1160. A little soggy in the last hour. Lets look at the euro and go to the bloomberg terminal. This is the real euro 1999ish synthetic euro Deutsche Mark, a pretend euro. Weakness here weakness hear, to. 82 and up we go. Theres a brutal move and this is what Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs over the last two weeks as they try to find where were going. 90,. 80. Anchor this is where everybody is looking this is parity and one to one and shouldnt in theory mean anything but these psychological barriers have political meaning. Pair sit not a finance problem but a politics problem for europe. Tom i agree with that. Whats interesting is here is the regression over 20 years and were now one standard deviation and can you see how unusual two standard deviation is and thats where Goldman Sachs is. Olivia last time we were at parity is two standard deviations away. They see parity within six months and expecting them to drop patience and provide it lower near term for the euro. Tom part of it is rationalizing the politics. First on oil to be direct, this was predicted, whether 10 or 20 or Goldman Sachsed 39 a barrel, many have suggested oil can only clear a massive glut of supply by price and price means under 40 a barrel. Oil touches sixyear lows. One of them following this is a chief analyst at energy as pictures and joins us by telephone. What does sub 40 oil mean for opec . Guest sub 40 oil doesnt make the situation easier for opec. There are a lot of countries outside the g. C. E. Like libya, iraq iran and are highly cash constraint and even 50 makes it extremely difficult for them to raise revenues. Tom oil is a tangible asset. When we talk about finding a price, where supply goes away to find some form of equilibrium, how do you do that with a thing . Its not the dow or s p futures or pieces of paper, its a thing. Whats different with oil . Guest thats a great question. I think what makes it harder to do those balances is expectations because if you take a step back and yes, we have been oversupplied in the oil market the last six months but put it in the context of the global market, weve been oversupplied by around a Million Barrels per day. Were in a 92 million barrel per day market, thats about a percent, thats not that much. You get one huge outage in the middle east and all that oil supply will be gone. Its about the expectation that because opec arent cutting out goods is why prices need to fall to the point where nonopec production needs to react and takes time. Building in those expectations makes it even harder to do price predictions. Olivia those Storage Containers are full and people are moving oil overseas to keep it in reserve. At what price do we clear w. T. I. Supply . Guest i dont disagree with that actually, i dont think cushioning cushioning has a Storage Capacity of 84 Million Barrels and cushing is above 50 Million Barrels and need space fored blending so lets call it 70. You have enough case. Its due to expectations its going to fill up. I will remind you the same expectations were there about the global oil market, that we were going to run out of Storage Space. Guess what . It didnt happen because demand picked up so much. We put out a note last week as well as the week before that said we see spec prices coming off because this is the weekest period for oil and will see it happening in the next few weeks but dont think cushing will fill up and there will nobody Storage Space because in the u. S. , refineries are actually coming out of maintenance and you will see refineries pick up. Tom thank so you much amrita sen on oil. This will be the theme throughout the week as we hit 43 again over the weekend. Oil, the euro and markets are wrapped up in a geopolitical stew. Andrew course provided us with the dynamics of politics, oil and the future of opec producers and get an update on saudi arabia with oil and the new lows. Lets go back to something you and everybody else has studied in International Relations and that was ugly lessons from 1986. What are the ugly lessons we learn now as we ever descend in oil . Guest i think whats going on in europe right now thats important is that there is an increase in terms of politics, theres an increase of instability with russia. Putin is saying the 40,000 troops are now on alert in russia. Tom does that filter in with what we saw with europe and oil over the weekend . Guest i think its a geopolitical effect on those things. Tom this is critical. Ian bremer i thought was great on Eurasia Group over the weekend. I saw a lot of b. S. Gossip on Vladimir Putin over the weekend. Lets get away from the gossip and give us what a pro like you assumes when a guy disappears for what is it, 15 days . Guest maybe hes going on vacation. Well let you ride horses and shoot tigers and go swimming. Tom if this were president obama, its unimaginable. Guest theres questions about a coup or his health. Olivia were expecting him to show up with the president of kurdistan. Russia head lead whers something was wrong and there was a history to this. Causing instability. This is bad for putin and the fact hes doing this. Hes causing questions about his leadership the fact hes been gone so long. Its not good for him. Something is going on. Somethings wrong there. Anchor theres a psychological effect on both sides in what is the iron curtain and there was a great piece over the weekend about polish paramilitary groups starting to train on their own and the polish military trying to figure out how you bring them into the fold and the problem, anders, im imagining once people become militarized, its very difficult to become demilitarized . Guest people in the baltics and poland are starting to look at putin as an enemy and will be hard to change for him. Olivia i was struck by today the annexation on crimea or the vote on succession. I was reading on the National State news channel, the name of this documentary about the annexation of crimea is road to the motherland. Is putin going to get a land bridge . Guest i think hes looking to do that. Hes softening up villages between the russian border and mripol, a port state and would give this new republic more access to the sea which is important for the viability in the future. Yeah, i think he would like to take maripol and youll see continued sanctions if he does. Olivia already. With us for the hour. Coming up, bloomberg surveillance returns and well return to the biotech firm and there is hope for those that successfuler from high cholesterol and a new group of drug coos lower your risk for heart attacks. Well discuss. Bloomberg surveillance streaming on your tablet and phone. Good morning. Tom good morning everyone, bloomberg surveillance. Futures up nine this morning oils 44. 60 the euro 105. 43. Lets get to our top headlines with brendan greeley. Brendan they wont accept a deal with iran. John kerry hints the u. S. Would be willing to walk away from talks. Talks are aimed at stopping iran from Building Nuclear weapons. The man charged with shooting two Police Officers in missouri admit to pulling the trigger but police say Jeffrey Williams was shooting at someone else, not police. The officers were wounded last week during a protest. Crossing the term fall this morning, an intense manhunt is underway for a pair of suspects after two Police Officers are shot in South Los Angeles and in an unmarked car and wearing plainclothes when attacked. Several city blocks were closed in the investigation. The u. S. Is changing its deployment plan in afghanistan. A white house official says more troops will be kept there into next year a concession to military leader. The plan was to cut troops to 5,500 by the end of the year. Roads are swamped and roads like canals in parts of ohio and kentucky. Rain and melting snow raised the ohio river to the highest decade in two decades. Cincinnati is hardest hit and analysts say the river will stay at flood stage the rest of this week. Two gay groups make history in america, second oldest st. Patricks day parade matched for the first time today in south boston and in protest of some Roman Catholic groups dropped out and the fight to keep gays out of the parade went back to the Supreme Court and dates back to 1901. Olivia theres a new class of cholesterol drugs that could cut heart risks in fact, ptks9 prohibitors and can cut socalled bad cholesterol levels up to 60 . These early test results show they could be half as risky as statins which are the leading treatments. Remgen and others are leading the race to get these to market. We have a bioanalyst on set now. Obviously the Patient Population here is potentially enormous, over one in four americans over the age of 45 is actually on a statin. Does make mean one of these drugs will be the new lipitor . Guest exactly. This is the excitement after coming out with these drugs. Because its a high Patient Population in the u. S. We know Heart Disease is one of the largest killers in the u. S. Even if you restrict these drugs to the severe patients which is where the Clinical Trials are going after, it is a big population. They are calling for the drugs to hit blockbuster status within two years of launching in the market. Not as sexy as the hepatitis c sales weve seen but still up, its a big market. Olivia what are we talking about in terms of the forecast what is the peak revenue for amgen . Guest its hard to say just yet because to hit the big sweet spot well have to see outcomes trials and thats whats coming in 2017, we should see the responses to that. Brendan what is being discussed in the new england journal of medicine, thats like being on the Rolling Stone . Guest you really make it when you get it on the new england journal of medicine. This is a dogfight between two companies and theyre trying to one up each other and have been doing this throughout the development of these drugs. Whats interesting is these drugs are very, very comparable very high efficacy and very good safety and are trying to find other ways to differentiate themselves. Olivia wont it destroy their Pricing Power . Guest we heard people from c. V. S. And others that theyll do what they did like with the hepatitis c drugs, pitting one against the other. Olivia however, theyre going to 80,000, the drugs. Guest exactly. Theyll force them to pay a gross number. Even though you have a high list price, a rebate will be kicked back to them. Olivia will it be amgens new number one drug. Guest wait until the fat lady sings and the drug gets to the market. Olivia thanks for watching. Watch his space. Tom interesting to see if its a true blockbuster drug. In our next hour, john shaft of the royal bank of canada is out with a new book and will be one of our themes throughout bloomberg, surveillance, a force of good john taft in the 7 00 hour on radio and television. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Were watching oil near record lows. Brendan greeley has the news. Brendan just there for a week, for a wedding. I was struck. Everybody talked about the gruppings scandal. Petrobas is no longer trusted for what should be a National Champion and is one of the Largest Energy companies in the world. That is a disaster. Tom, what its really a disaster if is one of the most trusted institutions in the country and we dont have anything comparable in the u. S. And as petrabras goes, so does dilma. Tom in your expertise in brazil, what has changed since we were last focused on this. Brendan the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate. People there talk in terms of two terms. They say her first term was fine and the second term not so good. Everything she failed to do in her first term has come home to roost. She didnt address corruption at all that sucks money out of the system of brazil and didnt talk about the cost of doing business in brazil and now people are actually starting to lose jobs, both at petrobras which suffered in terms of International Contracts but also in other parts of the economy. Tom she won, right . Brendan she won. Olivia remind us who her base is. Its not to those shes been handing subsidies to. Brendan she inherited her job from lula, who was a head of the Workers Party and did an Incredible Program where he paid money directly to families in order to keep their kids in school. It was very successful and seen as a model of lifting people out of poverty and in fact did that. She continued to do that but didnt take on any new challenges and i would say corruption is the biggest one so she is not directly implicated but many members of her own party including the heads of both members of both houses of congress there. Theyre being investigated for corruption in the Petrobras Scandal now. Tom what was the one thing you learned being on the road to brazil. Its one thing you go to the grand hyatt or ritz carlton. Brendan, youre in the trenches of brazil. Olivia he learned about a minivan. Brendan i had four children with me, what a minivan in brazil is not what a minivan here is in brazil. A what hear is drought, in the area around the airport, theyre out of water. Tom out of water. Brendan one day a week theres no water whatsoever where i was two hours outside. Water is the only thing they talk about. Olivia although the helps opened when you arrived conveniently for the greeley family and happy to have you back. Coming up, the Iran Nuclear Talks resume today and well head to tehran to our reporter to see if a deal will be reached. This is bloomberg surveillance streaming on your tablet and phone and bloomberg. Com. Be back in two. Tom good morning. It bloomberg surveillance. We will have much on the Federal Reserve throughout the week. Olivia talks between the u. S. And iran are underway in switzerland over the nuclear program. John kerry meeting with the Iranian Foreign minister. Important gaps remain. He is warning that the clock is ticking for a deadline. John kerry had a shop words for that letter of the letter. I am not going to apologize for a