Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150430 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance April 30, 2015

And comcast. Tom salesforce will be interesting. Lets get to the top headlines. Olivia it was a night of relative calm in baltimore. There were a few scuffles about the curfew. The worst writing was on monday. Most protesters went home. On friday police will turn over their investigation into the death of freddie gray to the states attorneys office. It will not be made public. Gray died of injuries suffered in police custody. A prisoner who share the police van with gray could hear him banging against the walls. He believed he was trying to injure himself. That report came from the Washington Post. Safety concerns led to a first for major league baseball. A game played without fans. The orioles beat the white sox behind closed doors, eighttwo. The death toll has climbed behind past 5500 in nepal after the deadly earthquake. Aid workers are delivering food, water, and medical supplies. Rescue crews pulled a teenage boy alive from the rubble of a collapsed building. It has been five days since the quake rocked nepal. The First Quarter gdp numbers dont seem to be bothering the fed that much. Policymakers left open the chance of an Interest Rate hike in the second half of the year. The economy was at a virtual standstill for the first three months. Janet yellen and her colleagues blamed the slump on transitory factors. They said the growth will pick up to a moderate pace. Bill it is often june. If we get a strong employment port report perhaps it will be sooner, but i think it is off. They want to prove that they can get out of bed and stand on the run to legs. That means 25 basis points. Olivia in japan the central bank has decided not to increase monetary stimulus. The bank of japan pushed back its timetable for raising 2 inflation because of the collapse in oil prices. Salesforce. Com may be considering a sale. It is working with bankers to field takeover offers after it was approached by a potential acquirer. Salesforce has a market value of 44 billion. It would be the largest ever Public Software company. Tom we are two days away from the richest fight in boxing history. Welterweights Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao go headtohead on saturday in las vegas. It may gross 300 million large. I am a fighter. I have faced so many different styles. We will see how everything goes on saturday night. Are you excited . [cheers and applause] dont get nervous about saturday. I am the one who brings the fight in the ring. Relax. Take it easy. Tom the body language could not be more different between the two. Retail sick it ticket prices are falling. The cheapest ticket was 3400 on stub hub. It is a fight. There it is. It is a big deal. Lets look at the morning brief. Personal income and personal spending. Interesting dynamics. It has been secondary. We get the savings rate gleaned off. Initial jobless claims. We see that every week. Those have been stunning numbers for the recent months. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer comfort index is out at 10 00 a. M. That shows a step to the American Consumer but you wonder about it after the brutal First Quarter on nominal and real gdp. Lets do a day to check. Not much to talk about. We arrangebound. We are rangebound. Greece moves forward and things move in europe. Crude elevated. 60 per barrel on west texas intermediate. Euroyen is the global litmus paper. Strong euro, weaker yen over the last couple of days. It is an outrageous sterling as well. This is a great chart. This is oil. We are going to do a lot of commodities today. Oil, adjusted for inflation. The era of Olivia Sterns, we are richer now. [laughter] tom then we were when i was your age in 1940. Collapse of opec, persian gulf, china, 2008. The point is that where we are right now. We are back to 63. Olivia oil is as cheap as it was in the 1960s. There is still zero appetite for a gas tax hike. Tom the infrastructure battle the Brendan Greeley was talking about you wonder where that is going to go. It is amazing how cheap we are going back 40 and 50 years as well. It is a range bound world. The fed opined yesterday. Joe weisenthal monitors transitory factors. It is boring, but it is not. Range bound and yet german bonds. Joe incredible timing. In the last few days, they have been crushed. German bonds are inching close to negative yields. The yield has exploded. Tom price lower. You and i talked to talk about yield, yield yield, yield. Bond owners look at price. Joe there are a number of factors that could be in play. Perhaps it is because theyre closer to getting a great deal perhaps because the greek finance minister has been sidelined. After this incredible bull market we have seen some pretty sharp reversals. Olivia i saw the report on bank lending. How about here in the u. S. . We heard about transitory factors. How much of the slowdown in the economy 0. 2 growth that is brutal how much of it is that and how much of it is the longterm things . Joe we definitely knew it was going to be a bad report. Analysts forecasts had come way down. It came in worse than what people were expecting. There were some clear signs of transitory factors. Exports probably affected by the ports. Other weather related things. There was a lot that seemed to be related to the oil crash. Cuts in mining expenses, stuff like that. Oil seems to have stabilized. Tom when you and tracy distilled this yesterday for bloomberg markets, the assumption was like the fed things are going to get better. The tilt is that things will get better and this is a oneoff. Joe it is hard to say what would make things worse. Oil has come down a lot. It is hard to not see it as good. There are still bullish tailwinds in terms of household formation. There was a lot more room for the economy to rely for, compared to what we were during the financial crisis. It is hard to see what would drag us down. Tom joe weisenthal, thank you so much. We have a special guest for you this morning. We will speak about nato and ukraine. First, we need to play battleship or stratego. A cargo ship flies a flag from the Marshall Islands the ship was commandeered by iran, what should the United States navy do . We go to war college with a good admiral from tufts university. This is the real deal. What happens next . You just showed a chart of the rise and fall of oil. It is really a rise and fall of geopolitics. It is the revenge of geography that comes back to the markets. The narrowest point that the Big Oil Tankers flow through. This is a provocative act by iran. You show the split between the iranian government and the Iranian Revolutionary guard. It was the revolutionary guard that took the ship they were holding it, supposedly a business dispute. We are monitoring it. This is not something we are going to go to war about. Tom when you look at it, the iranian diplomat who was in new york city you know this better than me he is greeted with open arms. Olivia to the admirals point that is because there is a normal an enormous amount of daylight between the iranian government and the royal guard revolutionary guard. You have the ayatollah on one side and you have the more moderate forces represented by the foreign minister in new york. Tom everything was fine, go britain, down we go. Is it a risk to our ships. Crude missiles absolutely are. We have seen the markets react to the slightest incident in these straits. Olivia the u. S. Has reached out to iran to try to get help for a deal with the rebels in yemen. Is there scope to partner with iran militarily in the region . Admiral stavridis i dont think so. This is a game of risk. The game that is going on is sunnishia. We need to stand with our sunni friends. Egypt, saudi, the gulf states. That is how yemen is going to play out. It is the 40th anniversary of the fall of saigon, when refugees run out over and over. You may see that play out in yemen. There are 65 warships in eight nations from eight nations circling yemen looking to take their nationals out. Tom very good. Admiral, stay with us. Olivia we look at what could be the largest takeover ever of a software company. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Olivia the crew of the International Space station will have to wait a little longer. An unmanned Russian Rocket went out of control and burned up while plunging back to earth. Spacex is scheduled to launch another supply rocket in june. Apples latest offering may have a problem with your tattoo. Some customers say tattoos on their wrists are interfering with the devices pulse tracking. I know you have an anchor on your wrist. The wall street journal says apple has found a defect in key components. Apple is not commenting. Elon musk is unveiling a new generation of batteries at a convention in california. He is turning the batteries in tesla cars into upright pillars so they can store growing volumes of solar and wind energy. It could launch another business for tesla. Those are your top headlines. Tom i want to get to the view forward. Olivia has smart comments on salesforce coming up. We will see russia at the bottom of the hour. Oil predictions later in the hour. We will look at oil. We are going under 40. That did not work out. The future of opec. We will talk about the future of opec after the drama scene in riyadh over the last 48 hours. Olivia Time Warner Cable reporting results a few minutes ago. Alex sherman joins us for the background on the phone. A little bit of a miss here. Tom did see that first positive quarterly net ad of Residential Service subscribers since First Quarter 2009. Take us below the headline numbers. What is the story . Alex the story really does not have much to do with the operations of the company. Part of the reason for the subscriber gain is that Time Warner Cable drastically cut prices, which led to a big pop in numbers. The only thing investors care about is what is the m a story . There are two things at the top of the press release. We are a far Stronger Company than we were. Two we can create more value for shareholders. Those seem absolute warning signs, triggers, headlights to selling the companies. Why would he refer to five quarters ago . That is when he reached a deal with comcast to begin with and now they may turn around and sell the company to charter communications. It is a signal to charter. You better pay a higher price. Olivia very interesting. You are a better man busy man alex sherman. Who are the suitors for salesforce. Com . Alex they hired banks because they got an approach. Im not sure if they are up for sale or not. Someone wants to buy them. The theoretical suitors are oracle, microsoft, possibly s. A. P. We are trying to do our work and figure out who may be approached. If that approach is still alive. All of those are still questions that are going to require a little bit more reporting work by our team. Olivia what about the price . Salesforce has a market cap of 48 billion. What is it really worth . How to potential suitors figure it out . Alex it is a huge hurdle to any deal. It would be the largest acquisition of pure tech of all time. A company would really have to really pay up. It would be a totally transformational acquisition for a company like oracle or ibm that has struggled to get into the cloud. Salesforce is one of the best in class, market sharewise. A lot of these Legacy Companies have struggled to get into that area. Olivia watch this space, as they say. Alex sherman, thank you so much. Tom in our next hour, one of our most popular guests will join us Barbara Corcoran. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Admiral stavridis with us today. A smart morning mustread from bloomberg view. I will let olivia help me. It makes sense for mr. Putin to find this kind of equilibrium allowing his countrys investment to rebound to gain momentum, while keeping ukraine on the hook. That implies a frozen conflict scenario. Natos equilibrium in this moment. Olivia he is saying that putin is stuck. Kiev is stuck and he likes it that way. Still with us on set, admiral stavridis . You think that the right strategy is to send Deadly Weapons to the ukrainians. That is a strategy that the eu opposes. Admiral stavridis it is the right move because when a bully comes at you, you need to stand up to the bully. The best thing we are going to end up with is a frozen conflict. You have a higher propensity to freeze the conflict if we send Deadly Weapons. Olivia what about the response that putin is going to just send more weapons if we do . Admiral stavridis i think it is highly unlikely because he cannot buy that level of conflicts. He will get more sanctions from the eu if he rolls tanks across that border. Olivia how do you deter putin . Joe you continue with the sanctions admiral stavridis you continue with the sanctions and targeted personal sanctions. You use move the weapons to the ukrainians as part of the deterrence matrix. Tom who are you looking for as leaders in europe . Admiral stavridis angela merkel. She carries the water. She has been very firm on putin. A further mush and roof to russian move to olivias great question, he will not move tanks because it will trip massive sanctions from the european union. Tom coming up in this hour, helena croft jalimahelima croft will join us. What a pleasure. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. From a bloomberg beautiful new york city. ght to top headlines. Olivia overnight in baltimore, protesters were on the street but there were not as many and there was no widespread violence. There were some scuffles, but most protesters went home. Hundreds of police and right gear were on the streets earlier in the day. Maryland governor larry hogan said he expected tensions would behind. Governor hogan we are going to continue to be careful about staying on top of everything that is happening. We are going to continue to meet with Community Leaders and that we are protecting the city. We dont know what is going to happen. Olivia on friday, police will turn over their investigation into the death of freddie gray over to the states attorneys office. A prisoner sharing a police van with gray said he could hear gray banging against the walls and believes he was trying to injure himself. This is according to a Police Report obtained by the Washington Post. In manhattan, hundreds marched to protest a grays death. Or than 60 protesters were arrested. Greece and its european creditors are trying to break the impasse over bailout aid. They are hoping to have a deal by this sunday. A key factor the great Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has decided to play a major role in the negotiations. Greece may face a cash crunch as early as next week. Financial professionals have grown more pessimistic about greeces prospects in the past few weeks. 52 surveyed in a bloomberg poll said greece will leave the euro at some point. That is up from 31 in january. Hillary clinton now has a progressive challenger from the democratic desk for the democratic nomination. Senator Bernie Sanders will announce that he is running for the white house. He is a socialist to usually votes for democrats. Sony is forecasting annual profits at lower than expected. Sony is increasing sales of its games and camera sensors. Tom it is a threeday extravaganza known as the nfl draft that begins tonight in chicago. Chicago is hosting the draft for the first time in 51 years. 51 years. That is like dick butkus. The First Quarterback to go will be james stavridis. No, jameis winston. [laughter] olivia it has been a wild ride for russian rates. Tom there are certain issues like inflation. Olivia the ruble has been the bestperforming currency. Our european editor at large francine lacqua, joins us. Good morning. Give us a sense of what the outlook is for the european economy. I heard that someone say russia is out of the penalty box. Francine right. It is still in a very difficult position. Thank you so much. We had the news from the russian central bank. This is an economy that is still on its knees. It is not an critical territory, but we are expecting gdp to fall by 3 . This is an economy that has had to do with sanctions and lower oil prices. They had a budget based on 100. The ruble is the bestperforming currency this year, but it is still gyrating finally, violently, especially if you look at last year. They are trying to figure out how much they can take rates lower without jeopardizing the bigger picture, which is making sure that people have enough food. Olivia another story rbs still not making any money. What is the back story . Francine rbs is very important. We are one week from the u. K. Election. This is a bank that is owned by taxpayers. We would have hoped but that by this point we would have had a little better view. It is a political story, as much as it is a banking story. They had a bigger than expected loss and it is going to take a lot more time to restructure this bank. At the moment, it is still not working. It could take 23 years. Tom tell us about big oil in europe. Tell us about royal dutch. Francine the figures were not great. But they are traitors traders. This is how big oil works. They have traders. That is almost a natural hedge. It has been paying off for bp earlier in the week. Olivia thank you so much. Francine lacqua joining us from london. Tom very good. Joining us now, helima croft. We will speak to her about the state of oil, more than anything. You are just back from riyadh. Do we get to her Goldman Sachs is at 39 . Helima i dont think we are going to get to 39. I think we will have a recovery to around 70 by year end. That is the feeling i got in the kingdom. We are not going back to 100, but we will be getting up to 70. U. S. Production growth will slow and demand will pick up. I dont anticipate going to 20 or 30. Tom critically, the supply dynamics in the United States, has that market cleared out . Helima s

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