Worldwide, please make a visit to Lower Manhattan. The drama there, and the improvement in the architecture, the new architecture, in the last two years has been extraordinary. Lets go to top headlines with david gora. Thewe could see forecast for crude has been lowered once again. Goldman is trimming a 2016 estimate for a west texas crude to 45 a barrel. That is down from the may projection of 57. It is also slashing its brent crude prediction. The Iran Nuclear Deal will be formally adopted the next month now that it has survived a congressional challenge. Send the democrats and the president obama a major foreignpolicy victory. Republicans were two votes short of what they needed to pass a resolution of disapproval. Worldple around the should know that todays outcome was clear, decisive, and final. There is no doubt that the congress will allow this historic agreement to go forward. Efforts by the opponents were soundly rejected, much larger than people thought. David the plan to i read must start taking steps to comply, but opponents say they will keep fighting or human rights activists say the u. S. Should accept more migrants fleeing the syrian war, but the obama administrations say Security Issues of slow the process. President obama wants the u. S. To take in 10,000 Syrian Refugees in the next two years. Than. S. Has accepted less 1500 since the syrian war started two years ago. Saysuropean Union Official governments are green are in agreement on migrants there. They will shelter 160,000 refugees. 11 of the republican candidates will make it into prime time for president ial debate. Among them, carly fiorina, who was not among the 10 picks for the debate last month on fox. Of thepiled polls leading candidates. The debate will air wednesday night at 8 00 eastern in the Reagan Library in california. Those are the top headlines. Tom lets set a data check for you. Not much going on in the market this morning. Indonesia gets my attention, but futures are negative four are negative for. Fix, 23 point 24. 3. Gold is weaker. There is the indonesian rupee. Know you carry rupee in your wallet every day. Lets go to the bloomberg terminal. Back three dollar, and four decades with all the drama back then. Here is the strong dollar of the late 1990s. Before because we set this up, the log chart, this distance some of the strong dollar distance, we can equate over here. This is how far back we are to that 1990s dollar. Where the dollar affects the american economy. It is going to be bad for imports, right . Tom it changes import export dynamics, but i wonder about the knocked down effects for any of the other countries. We will touch on that for much of surveillance here can we begin coverage with a forecast of commodity meltdown. Jeffrey currie months ago framed 39 per barrel. His team at Goldman Sachs looks for oil to move, as low as 20. , theore importantly ramifications affect all commodity producers. Eswar prasad is professor at Cornell University and at brookings institution. He is the former head of the imf China Division and joins us this morning. Is the commodities super cycle over . Is the commodity gain done . It suddenly does not look good for a con for commodities. China actually does manage to leave out of this economy away from investment, which means less demand for economy for commodities. Either way i see much weakness. Tom we are going to talk to you en later about china. I believe one dollar 95 send gasoline is a good thing. It has got to be great. Eswar one of the reasons we are seeing weakness in oil, the supply response coming from the u. S. Barrel, a lot0 a of production has come online in the less two years is not going to be economical. This will mean a structural shift. Potentialo there is a winner for new year for u. S. Manufacturers. Eswar there has been a good net positive. David co there is a resurgence that this leads to. Eswar the question is how low oil can go before there is a negative effect. There is so much weakness around the world that it is less clear. Tom bring up the chart that we did on oil at the top of the hour, showing the 20 mark. To me, the important point of this Good Research is that we do not go back to 60, 80. Everybody is bringing down there one and twoyear fuse on oil. What does this signal . It signal structural weakness, largely because the big question that still remains, the supply on oil states at 20 a barrel because than a lot of production is not economical. Within that microeconomics, does it hearken back to the instabilities that we saw in 1994 and 1997, and then on to the drama of 1998 . Eswar oil at 30 or 40 a barrel is good for the u. S. Economy, keep some production online, but the problem if it goes below that it could be a net negative. David co and apart from the economics, there could be geopolitical issues. If you look at nigeria, venezuela, it puts a lot of pressure on them when they are getting most of their revenues out of oil. Eswar absolutely. Many of these Companies Many of these countries economies are based exclusively on oil. Some of the other countries you mentioned this will put the squeeze on them and the problem becomes social and economic instability. Tom how do you fold in global centralbank action . It seems like not a currency war but almost a centralbank war of reducing Interest Rates within deflation from the commodities. Is it a centralbank war right now . Eswar i think Central Banks are being squeezed because there is not much room. Especially if you take these economies weather is not room for any other policy, Central Banks are the only game in town. So there is this increasing imbalance with the u. S. Trying to think about raising Interest Rates, looking for when that will happen, and the rest of the world counting on Central Banks for Economic Growth. It is great to see this curious configuration of currencies in particular. As we see the divergence intensifying. Of cornellprasad university. Coming up, ken rogoff will join us in the next hour from harvard. We will pay remembrance as well to september 11. Our twitter question of the day. We are simply asking, on Goldman Sachs, how low do you think oil can go . Coming up next, can verizon succeed where others have failed in global tv. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom somber events in Lower Manhattan today. We look at ground zero this morning. It is spectacular. If you have not attended the wonderful architecture of the new ground zero, it is extraordinary. I visited a few weeks ago. Many going up to see the Freedom Tower in new york city. David westin joins me. Cornell university, eswar prasad. Lets get to top headlines. The Financial Post says the Purchase Price is expected to be about 13 billion. The unit is the largest financier in the north american commercial truck and trailer segment. Bloomberg news is reporting droppedires merger fund 4. 2 in august as stocks tanked worldwide. Paulsons advantage hedge fund. Ellen pao will not appeal her gender determination case. Court costs are 276,000. The lawsuit claims bill colleagues preyed on her and she was not promoted because she claims mistreatment. We are joined now by paul sweeney from bloombergs intelligence unit. Verizon is making an announcement this morning, and time will tell how important it is. They will have a new mobile streaming service, free to your telephone. Example ofis another what we have been talking about for 10 or 15 years, which is the convergence of technology and media, and we are seeing it happen. We have seen so many deals where we have seen Media Companies like time warner and hbo taking their content direct to consumers, engaging technology, the internet, bringing their content to consumers. Now you have verizon trying to get to david but this is different because unlike hbo, which is subscription based, this will be free over the air like broadcast tv supported by advertising. Paul they are trying to offer this free, make it an adsupported model, and if they get enough traction in terms of subscribers, i expect they will charge. Tom can i ask a dumb question . Does anybody want this . I am texting right now, bumping into people like an idiot. How am i going to do this with tv . Paul everybody looks at one company and they look at netflix and they see over 50 million subscribers globally that are paying for streaming video, and we know that people are consuming more content via the internet primarily via their mobile devices. This is where technology and media is coming together. We have seen lots of examples where consumers are changing their behavior. David and they are not calling it verizon, they are not calling it verizon fios. They are calling it go 90. You turn your cell phone 90 degrees to watch the video. Tom that is so lame, we need to bring in david gura, the closest thing to a millennial. Would you help me here . It is like digital diary. It is insane. David is there evidence indicating people want to watch shows of any length on a smart phone, on a small tablet . Paul there absolutely is and we see it across the board. It really is a global phenomenon. You see all the content players, Hollywood Studios reconfiguring content so that it plays on mobile devices. They are upgrading technology. Brady want to watch tom beat the steelers on a mobile phone . Bei want to watch duke beaten in basketball . Know, isrts, as we really the mustsee tv left on broadcast. David espn is one of the offerings on this new device. Paul one of the challenges for verizon, the big challenges they do not own any content. At t went out and spend billions directvirectv because has relationships with the Hollywood Studios and the broadcast and Cable Networks. Verizon is trying to piece together an offering. Tom the mobile phone is treated differently in china, isnt it . Can you imagine mobile tv across the billions of people in china . Eswar i would hate to see the streets of beijing with people looking at their cell phones. China again, the mobile phone has become much more important of a part of peoples lives. You will see this demand especially in china for many more things to be done. We see this as being the way of the future, but the implications for human relationships and how things work in the streets, i fear it. David going back to pauls point of how many announcements we are seeing, a lot of Media Companies do not know where it is going and they want to try everything because something might work. The those are the experiments that make the mobile phone risk work. David you see this overall in media. There is a fairly limited audience, but they are really engaged. It was smart, well recorded, it had a certain amount of iss that one verizon that what verizon wants, a limited audience . Paul no, they want to sell advertising. David it makes the deal worth it. Paul exactly. Tom are you optimistic or paul i am very optimistic because i see the other side of the equation where the broadcast and Cable Networks are seeing real constriction on their business. Tom paul sweeney from Bloomberg Intelligence on a new experiment. Eswar prasad is with us from cornell. In the next hour, ken rogoff china, on the most interesting Foreign Exchange markets of 2015. From new york city on this september 11, it is bloomberg surveillance. Is not juster 11 about new york city. Here outside the pentagon, there is a wonderful memorial to the flight from dallas that was heading for los angeles and did a sharp turnaround and created such devastation at our department of defense. We remember september 11. Good morning, everyone. Loomberg surveillance we welcome you all to our efforts today. David westin has the morning mustread. David the thing that struck me this morning came out of usa today. We all expected another major attack and it did not happen. But it came back in a different form, in isis, in beheadings, in burning people to death. It is a much harder formed to respond to. Tom we are making that response right now p general allen will be speaking about isis. Eswar prasad is with us from Cornell University, and the search here away from the military and the terror of Economic Growth. How do we bring stability and Economic Growth to some of these geographies, particularly the middle east. To 20 a oil goes barrel, that will heighten the social and economic instability in the region. But the problem is many of these countries need governance reforms. Those are very difficult even in good times. David we saw that with the errors spring. We thought everything was with the arab spring. We thought everything was fine. ,swar countries like venezuela government problems are very hard to fix. Economic stress is going to make it much worse. Tom when we talk about the rule of law there, give us an update on the rule of law in china. Is it there gekko eswar they have a very different is it there . They have a very different definition of the rule of law. Haveudiciary is going to dominance over the communist party of china. It is a very different notion here. The government can be taken to the court. In china that is off the table. You need a functioning legal system to make property. Tom it is equivalent to the aristocracies of the middle east. Thanhey no different china in rule of law . Eswar there is no question of the functioning legal system because of the monarchies taking dominance over every aspect of life there. David i was in hong kong a while ago talking to one of those leading dissidents who campaigned in favor of chinas admission to the wto. He said the reason they did that is if they join the wto they would have to have the rule of law. Tom let me ask you quickly here , a question of rule of law, one of your expertise, david. Are we naive about what we see in the middle east and what we see in china . David realistically, we do not have rule of law. You do not have a judiciary and an independent bar. The United States is almost unique. We have always turned to the courts. You played left wing for the canadians, right . Is bloomberg surveillance good morning. Tom it is september 11. We will have coverage of the remembrances in Lower Manhattan, the pentagon, and in pennsylvania throughout the morning. Joining me on bloomberg surveillance this morning, david weston. Wonderful to have you here. Right now to our headlines with david gura. Locateo the bank has that has lowered its forecast once again a growing opec production for goldman is trimming its 2016 estimate for west texas crude to 45 a barrel. May a production of the prediction of 60. Carly fiorina will make it to prime time in the next president ial republican debate. She was not among the 10 candidates fox picks for its debate last month. Cnn added her after compiling polls from the last two months. 11 candidates will be on the stage at the Reagan Library in california. The others would take part in an event earlier in the evening. Clearden is making it that his decision about running for president is more emotional than political. The Vice President appeared on Stephen Colberts new latenight show. Biden says he is not ready to commit for a white house run. Joseph biden i do not think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president. Two, they can look at the folks out there and say i promise you you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy, and my passion to do this. Co biden says he and his family are reeling from the death of his son. A big weekend ahead for netflix, its first original movies filmed screened at the toronto film festival. This is its chance at its First Academy award. It gets people accustomed to watching new theaterquality films at home. The patriots started the nfl season with the way they ended the last one, with a victory, defeating pittsburgh 2821 last night. Rew fordy th touchdowns. Tom start the game earlier. It was great to see that. He is motivated to do well. David i am a lions fan. You know where brady played college ball. Michigan. Tom lions fan . David there are not many of us. Tom we have breaking news on the Russian Central Bank. The Russian Central Bank does not raise rates. Inflation and the weakening ruble is a great challenge there. They do not do anything. To septemberrward 17 when we will have a lot more on what the u. S. Federal reserve bank will do. Dollarruble,he 67. 78. Marketthe current multiple is too optimistic despite the selloff. The market is pricing in earnings that will not materialize. According to a new study, they might just be right. Lets check in with director of Research Richard dobbs, one of the authors of the research. Tell us about this study. You think there has been a boom for 30 years, and it is about to go the other way. Had a wonderful 30 years of corporate profits, growing e times a wonderful period. As we see the picture going forward, the economic environment, Interest Rates cannot get any cheaper. Tax rates will have come down. Labor rates that have been driven down the real thing that will happen is we are seeing a change in competition. The rise of emerging markets companies that are going to be half the Largest Companies in the world are going to bring a different competitive dynamic. You look at emerging market companies, the typical return on Investment Capital is about half that of the u. S. Companies