Up by donald trump. When you allow that on the National Stage you look weak. I wish politics wasnt about that, but it is. Donald trump, four hours of bloomberg surveillance. Coverage begins at 2 00 p. M. In washington. Mike mckee will be in washington this afternoon. Now our top headlines. Out if few hours we find the fed will raise Interest Rates for the first time in nine years. Policymakers will come out with a statement at 2 00 p. M. Eastern janet is hosting a News Conference later. The president ial candidates squared off last night for a most three hours. They were at the president ial library in suburban los angeles. Donald trump emphasized his experience in business. Mr. Trump i was a businessman who did well. Want to do is but that ability into our country to make our country rich again. I can do that, and im not sure if anyone else in the group could. Commented onina his comments in Rolling Stone magazine. He says he was not insulting her appearance, it fiorina did not buy it. Miss fiorina mr. Trump said he heard mr. Bush very clearly and what he said. I think women all over the country heard very clearly what mr. Trump said. There were 11 candidates in the polls that took part. There was a preliminary debate for numeral for others. General motors has a criminal investigation into faulty ignition switches. Gm will pay the Justice Department 900 Million Dollars to end the case. No individual will Face Criminal Charges. Gm lawyers and engineers knew about the flaw for years and it has been blamed for more than 100 deaths. A transaction and cable tv. Will byse altis cablevision. Cablevision is one of the top five. It is controlled by a french billionaire. Anothergreed to buy u. S. Company. Oil priceshs says will be low for 15 years p or the forecast is 50 a barrel earlier this month. They say there is so much oil it could fall to 20. Datai want to get to the check. Jon ferro, it was boring in london. That may do better. I might be more boring. Not much to say. Do not go on to the second string, lets go to our chart that shows what we were talk about on surveillance, with a lack of hysteria. These are the fed meetings we have had this year. Venus, earth, mars, jupiter, saturn, lugo is out here. This is a regression, the trend. Until 1 on the twoyear summer of next year. This is a challenge that chair yellen has. It is a killer chart. Is the onlye here hint of inflation is uncertainty where people do not know what is going on. When they find out they go back to the expectation. Tom we will talk to ethan lowers and blanchef coming up. The federal open market community, meaning the impact on the markets begins coverage with sir Martin Sorrell, the chief executive officer and founder of i want to get to, sir martin, Carl Riccadonna has been fabulous in his perspective. Explain to me where they are and Lloyd Blankfein are. Why should they do nothing . Of todays meeting is yellens hunt for a not so read october. October. Red in july, the fed was concerned about a slowdown in china, and a lack of inflation pressures. That was before the recent fireworks interrup fireworks erupted. Theyre going to pause and air on the side of caution. Tom in 2006, theres nothing in my text books like this. The expectations of a hike are 32 . Is the fed paying attention to the actual expectation this morning because it does not want to cause a surprise . They are sensitive to market conditions. Janet yellen wants the first hike to be well telegraphed and to be a nonevent in the market. That would not be the case today. Is it a good thing that that the conditions fed is for it or bad that the fed is concerned . Mr. Riccadonna if we look at the economy, it has been flat on its back with pneumonia since the financial crisis. We have been improving, but we sneezed in august. The fed wants to be cautious to make sure the fed is not a relapse. Radio, you you go to look at the twoyear yield. This is the redux, Greenspan Bernanke and yellen, they have never seen a glide test proposed . Mr. Riccadonna this is not measured, this is glacial. Tom thank you so much. Now, janet yellen and mark carney consider good of economies. Economics or politics. Sir Martin Sorrell is in touch 190,000 at wpp. What we haveeen seen is an original history in the united kingdom. Lets get your take on jeremy corbyn. Much like the people screaming of the establishment in the united kingdom. 250,000 associate members of the labour party. About it being democratic. In one sense it was. The democratic elections, it is basically the union candidate. He is lurching and taking the labour party to the extreme left. From an electoral point of view in 2020 it will be interesting to see what people say. View, iersonal point of would never forgive him for not ating the National Anthem the 75th anniversary of the battle of britain. He said that at any future event he will support. Sang saying the re he the red flag several times. The pub where he celebrated his victory saying it as sang it as well. He is out of touch with the mainstream. Tom totally different from what they do in the United States. To say that you are sitting there or standing there in respectful silence is nonsense. The emotional quotient, the debt of gratitude to the people who died and fought in the Second World War granted it is a long time off but not paying respect in that way is unacceptable. A currentore of republican attitude he has. A british republican. Sir sorrell the interesting within 24 hours he reversed his position. That clearly indicates a mistake. That one event was thatat you are saying characterizes our about his leadership . What does the opposition mean in britain . Sir sorrell the opposition can be potent. If you look at the balance of power in the house of commons, are the biggest party. They have a majority. Far, they have defeated one bill. So far, it has not been a major problem. We have a fixed election running through 2020. George osborne is doing a brilliant job as chancellor. I am one of the 50 sure, they will be ready for the election. George will probably be the Prime Minister candidate. He said before the election he would not seek a third term, and it will probably be osborne. May hand wringing at the guardian and the spectator, what has he done to tony blair . Tony blair do with that party . What did he fail to see coming to set the groundwork for this . That heell it is not or peter manson failed to see it. They are threatened by the trade bill that has been passed. They are concerned about the restriction of striking rights. They have to give two weeks notice before a strike. There is control of social media activity. Maybe rightfully concerned about their position. Corbyn is a union candidate. Him to berniee sanders here. I actually think it is very different. He is nowhere near as leftwing as corbyn. Foot was a more intellectual figure then corbin. Tom in the middle of the strand is the air force church. Has he ever been in that church . Tories have toe be careful. They cant be too triumphant or sneering. They must treat him with some respect. I think the electorate will vote in a different way in 2020. Of way that 250,000 out 500,000 people voted in the labour party election. You, so much, sir martin. Our twitter question, we have the fed meeting at 2 00 p. M. This afternoon. At 1 55 we will go on era. Scheduled toguests be with us. The twitter question is simple. Within the power game, will the fed raise rates today and why . Good morning. 2 00 a. M. Inbe hong kong as they look at a Federal Reserve meeting 12 hours on the other side of washington. Quiet markets right now as we move to this important fed meeting. What a beautiful shot of calhoun. A strong earthquake rattled chile. It caused 15 foot waves. Least five people were killed. Tsunami advisories have been issued for hawaii and california. A suicide bomber targeted police in iraq. 14 people are dead after a pair of explosions in the dead. 43 are wounded. Both happened at security checkpoints. The bombings were similar to previous attacks by the islamic state. President obama meets with three Young Americans who foiled an attack on a french train last month. The gunman was tied to radical islam. They have already been given frances highest honor. That story still resonates. It will not stop, in a good way. There is nothing to say, but well done. Jamie butters has learned General Motors will pay 900 due to during a recall faulty ignition switches. It has been linked to over 100 traffic deaths. Settlement satisfy investors now . It is a bad situation, but good for investors. Most would have been expect eating one billion to 1 billion and a half. Even less than 1 billion, that is probably a win for investors. What does it mean in practice . What i hear from colleagues at toyota, it is a pain and a hassle. It is insulting. Chrysler,ve gm, fiat and toyota with monitors and house. That is 40 of the market. If honda gets it it is a it is at 55 . A slap on the wrist for General Motors . Most one billion dollars, and that is real money. A billion dollars is a program, it could be a new truck, a new billion is a real bite. It is more than it costs them to settle for all the people who died. The Feinberg Fund was 600 million. It is legit. Butters, thank you very much. The scale on the General Motors versus defined break settlement. Martin sorrell is with us. How do you rekindle a brand when jim goes through these . Hallenges sir sorrell i think theyre done a good job and have started to build g. M. In a meaningful way in a market that is recovering. The u. S. Market went from 17 Million Units to 9 Million Units, it is now back to 17 Million Units. That the review process will put them under pressure to get the basics right. Of does branding commercials on american Football Games help restore a brand . Are we so jaded that we do not see it . Sir sorrell i thought it was interesting last night that the sponsor of the president ial debate was a tour now fungus. I found that extraordinary. Or the advertising rates president ial debates have risen sharply after the success of the first, 20 5 million or whatever it was for the first debate. For live sporting events, people are not about. , withormula one and fifa the controversies surrounding those events, they still draw a high premium for advertising. Tom im glad you bring this up. Brendan greeley, 10 seconds, fifa update. Brendan we waiting to see if sepp blatter defines the role by which sepp blatter leaves. Surveillance fifa update. In our next hour, ethan harris joins us. The bank of america, merrill lynch, and the author on the ship to greenspan. Stay with us. This fed day, bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Quinn, greeley, vonnie here on this historic day. My morning mustread and must listen was a successful evening for all surveillance claim investors. Michael mckee and he went back and forth on tumultuous times. Here he is on the fed and why 2 00 p. M. Is not important. I do not care if they raise 25 basis points or it moves along the curve. I do not see the reason for it, frankly. 2007, i was watching a bubble happen. It was an asset bubble financing debt. It was an obvious bubble. To thefed gave attention gdp, they missed the whole bubble and we had an economic collapse. We are now in the midpart of a cycle and they are trying to identify where inflation is. We have a lot of liquidity. There are glimmers here and there, but basically i think that i worry too much about the shortterm debt cycle and not enough about the longterm debt cycle. Get it given the asymmetrical risks. Look at the world. We are in a World Economy. There are countries outside that should be tightening Monetary Policy. Tom i look like yoda at the beginning of the Empire Strikes back. Brendan tired you were. Tom what a great conversation. Brendan what i heard just now listening to radel what i heard just now listening to ray dalio is he is watching closely to see if bonds and equities rise together or not. The fed is a huge part of that. Longterm rather than the shortterm. Focusing on 25 asus points. Tom do you focus on the shortterm . Sir sorrell i like to think we focus on the longterm. We are pushed shorter. I do not have control Voting Rights over the share capital, i wish i did. They are winning at the moment. Tom we will be back. We will speak to him about the global ramifications. 2 00 p. M. And 1 50 five, our coverage of janet yellen and the fed. Tom they will watch from hong kong and london at 2 00 p. M. Times, 7 00 p. M. In the and. An important fed day as we give you the coverage on bloomberg surveillance. Here is a vonnie quinn. Years, that raised Interest Rates. The caution is whether policymakers will announce a rate hike today. At 2 00 p. M. Eastern we will learn the decision on Interest Rates. 30 minutes later we will hear from fed chair janet yellen. There is a 34 chance of a rate hike. A problem that has bogged down mary barra from the first day she took over. G. M. Will settle a criminal investigation into faulty ignition switches, paying 900 million. A jam report said Company Engineers and lauriers new about the defect for years. Jam report said Company Engineers and lawyers new about the defect for years. It is blamed for 100 deaths. A deal valued at 18 billion, altice buys cablevision. They are based in new york. Altice is controlled by a french billionaire. By settlingalso communications. Migrants arearys looking for another back door. They poured into croatia. 6000 refugees have arrived in the past 24 hours. It started after hungary shut their border with serbia. Ian police are using tear gas and Water Cannons. Those that Enter Hungary illegally are being arrested and tried under new laws that make crossing the border illegal. Jinping will speak in seattle on a trade program between u. S. And chinese companies. Among those attending are warren buffett. Mary barra is also expected. A key issue is whether china plans new limits on access to its market. Those are your headlines. Up in the debate. Brendan last nights republicans stood on stage and try to make sense of donald trump. They havesame thing been doing all summer. Phil mattingly has been watching them all summer. Did anything change . Lot changed. A it took two minutes for them to start attacking donald trump. One by one, they did not hold for three hours. Everyone that was watching when they were talking, and when you talked to Campaign Managers afterwards, you realize that donald trump was thrown off. He was exposed on foreign policy. The person who penned him down was Carly Fiorina. donald trump said he heard mr. Bush very clearly in what he said. I think women all of the country heard clearly what mr. Trump said. Reference to an Rolling Stone interview where donald trump reportedly talked about Carly Fiorinas face thomas saying it was not president ial. Carly fiorinas answers were tight and concise all night, which had everyone talking about her performance, not donald trump. Brendan i feel like last night was about body language. I do not think jeb bush got it done. What do you take between jeb bush and donald . Phil they had a really awkward highfive at one point. You saw jeb bush get three weeks of frustration by donald trump out. Lastifficulty jeb bush had night is you never get the last word with donald trump, particularly when youre next to him. He gets in your space, interrupts, never lets you have the last word. That flustered bush, but his team felt good about his overall performance. They felt he stood up to donald trump and try to get key points in. That is better than his performance from the last debate. If you find jeb bush, teach him how to give a highfive. We will go to dallas, but first, we will talk to you about the substance of the debate. I want to throw a substantive quote. This is George Pataki talking about his tax plan. Mr. Pataki the normal american is being higher taxes because of lou polls. Of loopholes. I would tax not income the same as others. I would lower the rate to 24 to all americans without a special break to the wall street fat cats. , you have done work on taxes. What did you take about the substance from the debate . You are showing the kiddie table debate. Talk aboutot much taxes on the grownup state. We talked about other issues and sensitive issues, but there was a missing tax, economy, wage issue. When you look at the republican debate, donald trump carried interest and stability to tax, both real estate and Hedge Fund Managers at a lower tax rate equal to Capital Gains on the table. That has always been a democratic talking point that is now incorporated into the republican debate. Republicans say they will close that loophole. There is a caveat, that it must be part of comprehensive tax reforms, lowering Capital Gains and income taxes overall. That has been hard to come by in previous years. It could be nothing, but this is a 1 billion tax break they are talking about, and 3 trillion of tax revenue being collect it. Wasie the main debate almost three hours, and i waited until the end until we got a tiny discussion about economic issues. Is the economy not americas number one concern still . Dan no. There are too many people on stage. It led in people all fighting with each other. You did not see the republicans themselvestrast with the democrats. Not to say he did a bad job, but that is rest of relev