Is it the nondecision. Is that how it should look at it . Tom that is what i am hearing from my colleague. Mike will be in washington at 2 00 p. M. Everybody looking for to december 16. Some of the challenges. You see it in the red headline. The norwegian sovereign wealth fund. The 4 return showing the challenges of working across assets. Jonathan it is remarkably difficult for the norwegian sovereign wealth fund. We will be talking about the carpet number of the bit later. For now, lets get the bloomberg volkswagen is feeling the pain. Vw posted a 3. 9 billion loss in their thirdquarter. Its first loss in 15 years. German automaker has had has said expectations will be lower than they were a year ago. It is cost vw 7. 4 billion which is more than the Company Originally set aside. Barclays has gone to the u. S. For its next ceo. Jes staley will take over. At one time, he was considered a likely successor. Three much ago, barclays fired its chief executive. Chairman wanted to cut cost and double darklys share price in the next four years. Federal reserve policymakers start their twoday meeting today. No chance of a Interest Rate increase. They now cap on the fed delaying until next year. Economic data has been mixed. Inbers and jobs all came lower than expected. On capitol hill, republicans joined democrats in the house to preside over the export import bank. Financing Companies Overseas sales. Mitch mcconnell says he will not allow a vote on the bill. It could be added as an amendment. German airfields built by the notches is given a new lease on life. S is given athe nazi new lease on life. Tempelhof was closed in 2008. Tom a fed data check. More bustling than the quiet that we usually see. Futures up 4 right now. The equities grinding higher. Eurodollar just churns. 110. 44. We watching oil very carefully. Print yesterday. This is oil just soggy along with the commodities. Euro sterling, jon ferro i am doing this for you. Maybe some of the you maybe some of the nuances. , theerman twoyear sterling shows a strength. A template for the fed meeting. I did commodities instead. This is animal spirit, nominal gdp with a 10 year moving average. This is just before the crisis. The 10 year moving average is down 39 . People feelthing vonnie even if they cannot articulate it. It is not only the United States that throughout europe. The decline in animal spirit. Vonnie one central bank move. Tom john, i say this is a challenge that only that we see with economics but jon ferro it is a challenge within big banking as well. Animal spirit, the nominal gdp out there. It is less there than it was a year ago. Toathan he comes down leadership. The news this morning, barclays naming former j. P. Morgan chase senior banker, jes staley as the ceo. Joining us now, Stephen Morris of a Bloomberg News. I am calling this the worst kept secret in the city of london. No surprise. When does he get to work . What is the first thing we expect them to do . Said that he is going to continue shrinking the Investment Bank which is flying in the face of what a lot of people expected when this was announced. He is planning to reset the banks relationship with investors. Cannot emphasize enough how key regulators work in this whole process. Steven explained that process. Explain why it is so difficult to get this through. Stephen in 2012 he was there. He preferred candidate. Politically was not acceptable at the time. Last tuesday, after two to three hours of grilling, exploring who he was, where he sees the bank has now been in to announce them today. I am sure he emphasized how good a relationship he wanted to develop. The glassine jonathan i have seen so many convicting reports. Bob diamond, but bob diamond, is that the important part of this . Stephen running not only the Investment Bank but asset manager. It is terms of style. To say that he is much more collaborative. Thingsot going to force down on people. He is going to try and bring them along with him. I anticipate that play well with the barclays board and the regulators. , axelan joining us now merk. Were talking about barclays. The Federal Reserve a little bit later trying to deal with the legacy of the financial crisis. Tom keene ang night calling this the fed nondecision. Axel china for today has been looking just fine. There is a nonzero chance that they will move. I am not predicting that they will. What they are looking for is the happy market we have right now. They have it. Reverse, because i dont think it was china they cost it in the first place. Jonathan the market does not think this evening is a live meeting. Has the Federal Reserve gone wrong with the committee tatian . With their communication . Tol a central bank has provide guidance. Dependent fed is the one that reads the leaves. The fed is chased by the markets. The market does not like that. I dont think that is going to change, because that is the sort of framework that janet yellen has. Tom most of our audience understands that. Give us an update. Given the disinflation we have seen, given the struggle we have seen, what would be the appropriate model that ecb should follow . The same they shouldve followed since 2008. A good longterm strategy. We have to stop reading tea leaves. We have to stop solving the problem of the day and looking at the longerterm issues. We need to provide an environment that is predictable. We dont have that. We have one where everybody is chasing Central Banks. We have an environment of currency wars. That volatility is what to spike again. The only way to get away from tom saw thesign article, the bank of italy with negative Interest Rates. Axel merk when i look at negative Interest Rates, an indicator of a topsyturvy world. How urgent is the chronic since we are in three years in the merck economics . Axel we are distorting asset prices. That cannot be good for longterm economic growth. Where complaining where longterm rates people dont invest for the longterm. People make shorter and shorter investments. That is unhealthy for longterm growth. We are popping asset bubbles. The fed is trying to extricate itself. That is why they cannot move away. The same thing will happen with a finally raise rates in december or march. Volatility will spike. Risk premium will rise again. That is just the nature of the beast. The markets are risky. You can cover it up or pegida, that you cannot take risk away. You can cover it up or patch you cannot take risk away. Jonathan how as it investors should we prepare for that . Axel people have been looking at the glass being half full. Look at it going to as things coming crashing down. It is not just jump on deals that have to come back up. Everything being equal, they want asset prices. People are going so worrying that remember, people have not been rebalancing. If you have a traditional 60 40 portfolio, people have not rebalance. , that hasople do that to weigh on asset prices. The fed being the biggest elephant out there will change the way people think. They dont want to change, that is white every time they thats that is why every time they take a step, they will step backwards. Jonathan in the city of london, there is a sense of perception that the fed is following the market, it is not leading the market. Is that the sense on wall street now . Tom always the fed can surprise. Of the Federal Reserve system is that it always surprises. I cannot remember a day like today where nothing is expected. It would be a perfect day for janet yellen and the vice chairman fisher to surprise the world. We will see at 2 00 p. M. Today. I will be here with Michael Mckee here in washington. Axel it would make perfect reason. The reasons they did not hike are gone. I do think there is a more than zero chance. If you look the market expectations, there is zero. It is still possible. A bloomberg surveillance exclusive, axel merk agrees with me. Jonathan axel merk, tom keene are going to be with us. We will be speaking with formal secretary general of nato about the syria crisis and mounting conflict in South China Sea. That is six clock a. M. In new york that is 6 00 a. M. In new york. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. The morning to all of you watching in south africa. Cape town dealing with the challenges of the South African rand. The Mining Community challenged along with oil lower prices. We are challenged to do anything. We get to a very busy news morning. Quinn. Vonnie vonnie written is given the the top two brewers have a week to work out the merger. Anheuserbusch have until november 4 to make a formal offer. Biggestlunge as low as oil company, statoil, missed estimates. The covenant was better since 2009 the company was battered by lower oil prices. We are going to be joined by statoil scipio statoil ceo later this hour. Automaker has posted a quarterly loss. Vw boss the . 9 billion. Lost 3. 9 billion. Jonathan big story this morning here in europe. For more lets bring in hans nichols. We were expecting the First Quarterly loss in 15 years. A series of negative headlines. Run through them for me. About 200s it was million less than it estimated. The expected profit to be hit. The stock is trading up this morning. Here is the good news, they increased provisions, not that much. Volkswagenty at the brand is up 3 . A compassg to have call with but he is miller with mattias moeller. At this point, i get to play my favorite segment, stop tom keene. Planeoes Angela Merkels and president obamas air force one have in common . Tom i have no idea. Hans they are both for engine planes. They are both watch her engine planes. They are both four engine planes. Matthias muller will be on board as well a bloomberg reporter. I want to find out what sort of explanation he gives Angela Merkel on what volkswagen is doing to clean up its mess. It is going to happen at 35,000 feet. Tom hans nichols, thank you very much. With futures up three. Dow futures up 15. We have much more to talk about. A smart morning read. Jon ferro with that important interview on oil in the next hour. Kate moore will join us. We would talk to her about a single digit world. It is a bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am Jonathan Ferro and the city of london. Gray skies. Tom, we do not do seasons. Tom it is gorgeous. Look forward to being there with you and francine lacqua. Here is the morning mustread. It is from steven roach. Dr. Roach of yale, formally morgan stanley. The recognizing the drivers of these development. A chronic shortfall of aggregate demand and a deflationary profusion of Technological Innovations and new supply chains, the fed continues to minimize the deflationary impact of global forces. This is absolutely must read. Agree or disagree. Jonro, a makepeace. Erro, a meant peace why are central bankers so reluctant to bring in . Is it fear that dominates our thinking . Axel they are out of tools. They do not know what to do. They have been doing so many thanks, it doesnt quite work. If you are faced with a credit bust janet yellen talks about the unemployed which is a huge lagging indicator. They are lacking guidance. They want to increase Interest Rates. None of that is going to make a difference. 10 rogue off of harvard say the same thing. Do not raise rates unless you really see something going off, including financial instability. What would happen if janet yellen stunned the world with a oneoff rate increase. Not what everyone would expect. What is the going well in the risk on environment would reverse. Rallyingr has been when risk was on. I would not count on the dollar rallying. I think the dollar would plunge. The euro being a funding currency may well increase. A lot of things that people are todicting are not going happen. Thesecourtesy of devotions of these that the Central Banks have created. Jonathan the riksbank, gdp running at about 3 . They are expanding she week. What is happening . Axel they are scared of their currency being too strong here it they throw everything at it. Centralthe key thing is banks are looking at headline inflation. In onxcuse to go all weakening the currency is going to fizzle out. Uturn they have to do a. They are doubling down. In the next couple of months, these banks are going to blink. This swiss are a prime candidate. Axel merk is good to stay with us. We are going to have a special program on the fed decision. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. The biggests pollution issue in the world . I was surprised to read about it. Indonesia fires. They blow north to singapore. Some haze in singapore. Im not saying it is from the fires and indonesia. We welcome all of you worldwide to bloomberg surveillance. Right now, we need the first word from our first word desk. Here is vonnie quinn. Diesel scandal has rocked the ws bottom line. Lostst in the thick vw 3. 9 billion in the Third Quarter. So far, the cheating scandal has caused has cost them. It will costeve him 22 billion. American is the name to run the uks largest the uks secondlargest bank. Staley spent years at j. P. Morgan. Antonywill replace jenkins who was fired three months ago. Barclays face misconduct. Has not raised Interest Rates since 2006. The forecast calls for policymakers to hold off again today. Bond traders betting there will not be another rate hike until sometime next year. Since the fed met last month, Economic Indicators mixed numbers of jobs. And retail jobs all worse than expected. A hush money case after he was accused to refusing to pay someone to hide misconduct. The press reported that misconduct involved sexual back when he was dating back when he was a high school coach. Jonathan apple investors care about one thing, Holiday Season and how many iphones that apple sell. How is the worlds secondlargest economy . Pelham smithers, great to have you with us. Tim cook says everything is fine. Is it fine for apple and not everyone else . Pelham he said anything was fine and numbers were delivered. Courseestion marks of about how things will turn out this quarter. There are advantages in those numbers like there were no china sales one year ago. Overall, he gave numbers. The issues now get pushed into the next quarter but as we get into the 2016 and perhaps there will be another look from samsung. In 2006, it was ipod inc. The bad taste that lingers, that fuels that. In the months to come it is not a problem. When does it become a problem that this company is only iphone inc. Pelham the cannibalization of iphones. They took away cameras. Impinging on ipads and stuff like that. If we get into a situation where they are three products of any size, smart phones, tvs and pcs, howe are trying to work out to deal with a third. As when a look at the aspects of this cash java not. 82 billion, 100 29 billion. One is a 55 billion. We added another 50 billion, pelham, and the time it took me to recharge my iphone. This thing missed money. Are you surprised we not we did not see pelham they tend to announce a different times of the year. The cash is piling up. Im sure there will be a shareholder the when not if. Tom is apple a bluechip stock . Enterprise,d building up their ibm cisco. Is this a bluechip stock . Pelham it is the bluest of the bluechip. It enjoys wonderful margins. It has a dominant product. Is to onem it faces of where does it go next . Tom yes. Within the gloom and microanalysis of product cycles with apple, i was blown away by the Margin Expansion which was not trivial. Also by the bills of cash. Walkingoking for him around in a gaze in central park southwest. I cannot find mr. Icon. He has to love the cash bill. Jonathan the average selling price. Quite the fx impact. I think that is important. Apple is a proxy for anything. Do you look to apple the same as china does as a proxy for what is going on in the world . Aixa is there a time that the market is winter selloff on good news . Time thats there a the market is going to sell off on good news . I think companies are going to selloff more on good news. If apple is a vulnerable, that is a symptom. Have been exiting very well. Jonathan a very interesting dynamic in the chinese market. What is the store their . They had a minor upgrade, the me foresee. They have been absent from the highprofile launch market. , whether orhe cycle not they will have one out before february. Thats the key factors. Is apple is winning market share and taking away from everyone knows. Tom d still call it a doubledigit grower or is it so big now . They weighed into a single digit growth which is fine. Are they big to add on growth . Pelham it is china, india, indonesia, vietnam. You are going down the risk curve on that story. These are areas, if you say i had an exciting stop that is big in this area, you would be nervous. Apple is big in this area. Tom do you have an iwatch, pelham . Pelham i have a pulsar. Axle probably wears an austrian watch. You dont have an iwatch, do you . Axel i dont. The youngsters in Silicon Valley do not wear watches. Jon ferro works on the weekend, he doesnt show up in the office when im there. Jonathan you touch on important point. No one knows who has an apple watch. Why dont they tell us . Pelham they have 4 million units. And they dont know if that is good or bad. 4 million is not bad. Such thatrelaunch was people were talking 30 to four were talking 30 million to 40 million a year. They are carefully stepping away from the story. Jonathan pelham, thank you for joining us. Brian cornell speaks about the companys turnaround strategy. Look out for that. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Televisi