Will bring you the headlines through our surveillance today. Impressed with how quickly the headlines are moving at a rapid speed. Lets get the bloomberg first word news. Vonnie it is day three of france president s Francois Hollandes push against the Islamic State. Today he talks with german chancellor Angela Merkel who says germany is ready to strengthen its military commitment to relieve a french forces. Belgium is searching for another terror suspect that was seen driving a car with one of the suspected organizers of the paris terror attack two days before the attacks occurred. So far belgium authorities have arrested five people. The unprecedented lockdown of brussels is slowly coming to an end. Nato is ordering deescalation after turkey shut down the russian warplane. They called for further contact between turkey and russia. In new york russian and u. S. Diplomats met. According to a Russian News Agency russia would be willing to accept a new agreement on airspace if nato came up with something. Turkeyss rejected claim that the airplane was in turkish airspace. A suicide bomber killed 12 people on a bus in tunisia carrying president ial guards. They have entered several attacks by islamic extremists this year. Are the only Success Story of the arab spring reveled. Demanding an end to violence by the palestinians in the west banks. Johnmin netanyahu met with kerry. He blamed palestinian leaders for attacks. He said if they want palestinians to build infrastructure, israelis must be able to build more in the west bank settlements. You can get more days 24 hours a day at bloomberg. Com. Tom i guess it is quiet, but it is a wonderful day in america with the green on the screen is coming back. Linking because of the stress of international relations. A weaker euro bears watching. It may bring back the parity talk. Onto oil which had a big yesterday. On the second board, the vix not where it should be. It should be 14ish. A little more angst. I want to point out the two year yield. Isare on the 1 watch, it buttressing up against higher yields. You have a london view this morning . I want to put that on your screen. A lot of movement and some of the travel stocks. A little counterintuitive when you look at all of the intentions. Time, look for sterling. Some change at the moment. Watch out for what the chancellor says, and the 10 year bond yield approaching lowest levels. That the board is beautiful and informative. It is a data check. You dont need anything more. Turkey is within the news flow. I do not want to overstate the weakness. Lets go to what vonnie will do to fill up the hummer h2. This is a weekly chart. All you need to know within the crisis of 4 gasoline. You remember that in new york . Vonnie vaguely. Oio, but whatlike is important is european gas is back in 15 years. 100 to fill up the hummer. Feeling ityre not like last year. Get a gallon of gas to america started as they go over the river and through the woods this morning. Francine is looking at me, like no, i was wondering when to say happy thanksgiving. I know that it is a big deal in the u. S. Tom i am wearing blue for the detroit lions. Be wearingou will blue for the thanksgiving day parade. Tom i will be passed out in the living room floor. Francine now, on to business. Down a russian aircraft. Vladimir putin threatens consequences. The bloomberg managing editor for managing government, and our cohost with , an independent writer of Investment Research and emerging markets. Andrew, you are with us when the news broke about turkey downing the russian airplane. The 24 hours were critical. There was no escalation. There were scrimmages and tough talk, but we dont expect it to become much bigger . Andrew going back to what tom said at the beginning, a of headlines are coming really quickly. So far, we have gone through the first 20 four hours without a major entanglement were another issue. Thebad news is that rhetorical escalation continues. Accused turkey of being accomplices to terror. They are saying that turkey is with the Islamic State on oil cells. That officials were involved in that. They have deployed s 400 Missile Systems in turkey, meaning that nato and coalition airplanes imave to report to sorry, in syria. Meaning they would have to because youssia, would have a risk of areas being covered by this russian system. There are a lot of things that could go wrong, despite the international attempt to diffuse it, it is intensifying. Side really has an advantage in taking this forward, economically or militarily . I dont agree. On the russian side, the strategic goal is to cement a partnership in a coalition with the western part of the Islamic State. I think that president putin tol be quite concerned not let that goal be derailed about what he sees as provocation by turkey. It will be interesting to watch president hollandes visit to moscow which starts tomorrow. For five years you were with the united group of moscow, giving them strategy. The people in moscow look at this effort in syria like another afghanistan. It shape how the people in russia, particularly the elites in moscow, will react to the news of the next few days. Christopher the first question on the people is more relevant. The support for the ruling establishment in russia is the key driver. I am not a great believer in elite intriguing and palace coups. Are great concerns that are showing up in opinion polls and russia about another quagmire like afghanistan. The dominant feeling is slightly the opposite, a question of defense. Defense against terrorist attacks. Remember that the russian public has been up against jihadi terrorism in moscow itself and other russian cities for the past two decades. A series of horrific events. For example, remember the chechnya and wars. The first chechnya in war, the public was against it. The second, the public was in favor of it because it seemed to be a defensive action against jihadis in chechnya planing action. This time it is the second action, the feeling of defensiveness if we dont do something we are not going to get attacked because we are involved in syria, they will attack us anyway. That is the dominant feeling in russia, in my opinion. Tom this is the leadership of turkey speaking in parliament. The headlines will come out very quickly to carry out structural reforms. This is more of a business speech in parliament, but no doubt he will touch on the news at the moment. Tell us about the southern border and a look south from moscow. It is simplistic for americans. Theres turkey and more, but there is an entire islamic set of countries where the core tensions come from . Christopher the tensions go into russian territory itself. Part of the Russian Federation is also part of the theater of the jihads. It is regarded by the International Jihadis as a theater of combat. It goes back to the terrible episodes are mentioned a minute ago, the wars in chechnya, which is inside russia, and that is the reality. Russia has absolutely Strategic Interests in combating International Jihadi activity. Moscow is focused on syria. Strategic interests. Russia should know the feelings of the sphere of influence, ukraine for example. Speech thist had a morning, theyre interesting, a claim to a sphere of influence in north syria, northwestern syria in particular. Tom we will come back. Barden, thank you for your perspective. Russian local currency bonds were just taken down a notch. Coming up in the next halfhour, we will continue the discussion. We will bring you Aaron David Miller of the Wilson Center for his perspective on washingtons response. Good morning. Tom good morning. 8 00 a. M. Tomorrow i will be at whole foods because i am cooking. 8 00 a. M. Tomorrow. Q the security. On a serious note, there is more security in new york this thanksgiving. The big parade tomorrow. The fourth wednesday of november. Parade will continue with no interruptions. The british chancellor wants to increase Home Building with a new and centers. George i was born is calling for 3 billion of public money to go to public money. Lack of housing has pushed prices across the you across the u. K. Lufthansa has moved in the direction of workers on pensions. Have augee influx will positive impact on the German Economy according to a Bloomberg Survey of economists. Germany will have a hundred thousand refugees, that should point10 of a percentage of annual growth in 2016, offsetting the negative affects of the volkswagen e mmisions scandal. Francine this mustread comes from the mark champion. The easiest way to find out how they will respond to russian news is to imagine how he would react. The two men have a lot in common. I like that he makes the point that Vladimir Putin probably misjudged turkey and went too far. Granville cofounder of trusted sources. This is the problem weve had to analyze, we have had very strong, powerful, slightly volatile politicians. When you look at the parameters, how difficult is it to secondguess what they would do . Christopher that was a sharp point by marc champion. Theyre both showing clear overlongf incumbency, power going to their heads, taking the situation that much more volatile, potentially. Strong decisionmakers in absolute control. Before we get to the however, another interesting similarity is the sphere of influence. Isis clear that are dan putting down that this is the sphere of influence and resisting rush of being in the driver seat in syria, especially in the parts closer to the turkish border. Kurdish question has caused tensions between russia and the u. S. , the border tension in the future of the assad causing tensions and russia. That is the background. Haser their reaction, putin a very strong reaction to provocations, often quite aggressive. There is also a cautious strand in there. Reaction willhe be not to up the ante, but to continue as before. To take greater steps to protect the integrity of russias air campaign. I think putin wants to put the ball into the nato court. Tom is there any animosities and distress wrapped around a common evil. ,efine for us the common evil and how that will lessen the animosities. Christopher well, the common evil is the breakdown of the state system in the middle east, which if we had time we could get into history lessons. Roman empireto the and the colonial powers there a large amount of responsibility for this as well. In the breakdown, which was invasionggravated iv of iraq by the United States in 2003, there is the fanatical branch or stream of islam. That is the cocktail that we have. A fundamentalg security challenge. I mentioned russia, no one needs to mention france. In the course of it being dealt with, agent geopolitical tectonic plates also start rubbing. It is a toxic cauldron. Granville, thank you. We appreciate your perspective. He predicted this. Coming up on bloomberg the Fletcher School is way out front on how close airplanes are in the eastern mediterranean. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Excited we are really to give you this exclusive interview. This is with the ecb Vice President. Nichols is wrapping that up after the ecb came out with a report warning of rapid especially when the fed hikes in december. Lets bring in our guest host. To have yous great here. We also have such a great interview with mr. Constancio. How concerned are you about risk . Marvin i think risk is reasonably priced at this stage. A goodk they have done job of telegraphing where they are going, certainly at the ecb. President draghi has been clear about what is going on. Continuing to emphasize that while they do see lebron markets given the downside of inflation that they have experienced, it will be a very slow and gradual process. That is what we should expect. Emerging markets are more concerned on themselves. Emerging markets, not all of them, but they are concerned about outflows. I know we have known about the fed hikes, but it will catch some countries by surprise . Somen it may catch companies by surprise. Most of the foreign debt is corporate debt, unlike in previous episodes of foreign market of emerging market distress. In the case of china, where a lot of the foreign dollar debt was held, they are holding the women in the they are holding the run and be they are holding the stable. Cally you cannot discount there will be an odd corporation that has not prepared well. Tom a rather grim view on 2016. Equity sachs with a flat view as well. Is currency is the only place to play at next year. Is the only place i can make out the next year in Foreign Exchange . Marvin i think it is one of the best places to make alpha. I think there is still room around rates and a variety of different places, but you are absolutely right. Currency, we still see a lot of significant divergence economic across monetary policies. We think this will lead to further Dollar Strength. Some of the issues francine and i were discussing with an emerging market suggest you will see Dollar Strength there as well. Snba big call on what the will do and what that will mean for the swiss franc. Francine we have an exclusive with the ecb Vice President. I just had a horrible nightmare. My companys entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. But that would never happen. Comcast business monitors my Companys Network 24 hours a day and calls and emails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. So i can rest easy. What. You dont have a desk bed . Dont be left in the dark. Get proactive alerts 24 7. Comcast business. Built for business. Tom good morning. Hong kong is looking at commodities, the number of trading out over there. You can watch moment by moment. Meetings are being taken at the matter in oriental in the lower left corner. It is a beautiful bar looking across. On thist started wednesday before thanksgiving with her first news. Theye turkey says that should be careful not to raise tensions over the shooting down of the russian airplane. Of wordsge in a war after turkey shut down the airplane. Turkey says they have a right to protect their borders. Russia is willing to work with nato to avoid more incidents. Angela merkellor is vowing to help france in the fight against the Islamic State. President hollande will speak with merkel to line up an antiterror coalition. America says germany could boost presence to relieve french forces. Authorities are looking for a man driving between brussels and paris with one of the suspected organizers of the paris attack. This was two days before the shootings and bombings. U. S. Travelers will need to have patience over the holiday. Long lines and armed officers will be the scene starting today. Security has been increased in the wake of the paris attacks. There are no specific threats. In chicago, protesters marched over the killing of a black teenager by a white police officer. Video was released of the officer shooting the teenager 16 times. The officer has been charged with his murder. You can get more news 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Or aine it is u. K. Budget the governments spending review. With more on what to expect. When you look at the rake down, you have to look at patterns. At the same time we are in an austerity drive in the u. K. Absolutely. It is still going to be about austerity, even though one of the bigger questions and hanging over the review, is he going to stick to his pledge to achieve a in five years . He has some time to get there, but that has been the pledge or a wild. There have been suggestions that he want, that it is a luxury given the spending they want to around health and defense. Which of the departments is the knife going to fall on in terms of cutting back on the budgets . Francine who is the chancellor trying to woo . Is it the voters or Bond Investors . Interesting one, where he is politically. Who many in the Gaming Community would have as the next leader of the conservative party. Be very mindful of his broader political appeal. He has had a couple of prominent fallings out, he tried to bring through welfare reforms. He was blocked in the house of lords from getting it passed. He had a fallout with the Junior Doctor committee over the health service. All of that, not playing politically all that well. Laying into his hand is the Opposition Party under Jeremy Corbyn is very divided right now. Francine thank you. Anna edwards at westminster. Lets continue our conversation bringing in john mills. A Top Labour Party member. Thank you for coming in. Just to make it clear, globally, you are from the opposing party. What is your main concern about the budget that the chancellor will deliver . That he will be to focus on austerity . There are two major problems. I dont think that adopting the president will get the deficit down. I do not think it is driven by too much spending by the government. I think it is driven by the balance of payments deficit, 100 billion pounds a year, that and lendingarling is out of kilter. Until you do something about the balance of payments, you will not be able to do something about the deficit. Being in a surplus by 2020 is off work. The second is we have an unbalanced economy. Is off whack. The second is that we have an unbalanced economy. That is rising. The growth is coming largely from consumer led booms that cannot last. Prospects overe the next three or four years is worse. Francine are you saying that it will not lead to a sustainable recovery . The majority in this country feel, on the economic side, that maybe they are in a more comfortable place. Think it is important from the point of view of the country to get the economic policies right. Adopt a policy that has very little chance of and all of the austerity and cutbacks which are causing so many difficulties, they are not going to deliver a reduction in deficit at the end of the day. It will put the economy in the flechette and is not a good policy to adopt. You have seen, lifetim