Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20151202 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20151202

I am Francine Lacqua. We have tom keene. We have mario draghi tomorrow. Lets get more on euroarea inflation. Lets go to our international correspondent, hans nichols. Pointthe survey was 40 two, this is below, 0. 1. It shows no inflation and will increase pressure on draghi to do Something Big and bold with quantitative easing. One of the guys at talking about his expectations and sees it expanded to another half a billion euros for a longer duration. Will they do about the deposit rate . This will be talked about when they meet in frankfurt tomorrow. Erik what do you see in the of europe as it knocks on what mario draghi will do. Is it improving or slowing . Hans when we look at all of the eyes, it seems the German Economy is a little stronger than the Inflation Numbers filtering through. Wage increases in germany. We have not seen that happen with the headline inflation number. The core inflation is up a looke, that they like to through that as well. The core was one point one, factoring out energy costs. You may have more accurate numbers with the terminal right in front of you. Francine were just going through it. That means that mario draghi will probably do more tomorrow. Major benchmarks in france and germany of a quarter of a percentage point. David cameron makes his case before parliament that the uks should extend its airstrikes against the Islamic State into syria. The debate is expected to last several hours, and cameron is likely to win the vote. The Opposition Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, will argue against the attacks. Air will poster turkeys defenses, and they are not reacting to russia. Jet shot, russia had a out of the sky by Turkey Russia responded by bombing i have star gets near the Turkish Border. One latin american delegate at the Climate Change conference said there is a disconnect with and whats from leaders is happening in negotiations. They will try to work out differences by december 11. Tourent xi jinping is on a of africa, the country that has suffered most from the countrys slow down. Chinese Officials Say that is only a temporary condition caused by plunging commodity prices. For the first time in days this guys over preaching is blue. He smoke and smog is gone it is still hovering over northern china. Cars are the biggest contributors to beijings smog. You can get more 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Three days of job coverage in the United States who preceded by what mario draghi will do. Lets look at equities, bonds, commodities. Quiet currencies. A weaker euro off of what we saw from hans nichols. 1. 06 . The same with oil, a bit weaker. Onto the second stream, the idea equityvix better markets, getting near the old complacency. Negative german yield. This was getting near the zero bound. That is a 15year swiss maturity, inside baseball on what negative yields are doing. Wanted to be very european so i put in dollarruble to impress people. A weaker ruble. It goes with my orange bow tie. Francine i love that you looked at swiss bonds. The ecb doesatever tomorrow will affect negatives. Tom this is original mathematics. You have never seen math like these negative yields. Francine this is european eurodollar, i want to talk about inflation. Zero point 1 , a little below what we expected. Core inflation, taking out food, alcohol, tobacco, that is how they calculated. Weekis on the back of construction figures in the u. K. The u. S. Economy is weaker than our next according to guest. He is eddie perkin, the manageve office at vance at eaton vance management. Do worry about negative rates . You are basically safe. Edward it is something to worry about. There has been a lot of talk about the divergence of Monetary Policy between the fed and ecb. There is a divergence in the economy is. If you look at pmi and german data it is steadily improving. In the u. S. , the backward looking data, the jobs numbers and gdp data, the backward looking trailing indicators look good, but the leading indicators look less good like the pmi saying we are still slowly on the upper trend, but we are expecting so much from the ecb. It seems like it should be the other way around. The two Central Banks are out of sync with each other and their own economies. It is unusual with data weakening in the u. S. We will get a tightening policy, and in europe where things are looking better, we will get more qe tomorrow. Tom first i thought it was the excellence in tax management, bluechip stocks, which all of our listeners want i own are you suggesting dont need to buy ibms, that value is in the large blue chips of europe . Edward theres better value in the European Equity market. Tom this is not an advertisement. Tax law in the United States on actual funds is bogus. A million years ago one Mutual Fund House said this is ridiculous, we will manage for taxes. They were the first to do it. A cheaper dividend and better valuation. Edward cheaper dividends, friendly Central Banks, and european profits are closer to top levels tom why is mario draghi doing doing what he is doing . Dward i cant explain it i think the Central Bank Policy makers are backward looking. I think they are wrong. Francine could we see a policy mistake . If draghi does more, only working on currency, it makes a lot of the stocks seem more attractive. Edward the exporters it makes see more attractive. I think the euro is near a trough versus the dollar. The long dollar bet that so many people have is overdone. Oi i though policy is g the office of correction, it is so known by the market we may see the dollar weakening into the new year. Francine youd probably think the fed has to reverse next year, that hiking is a mistake. Edward we would get one hike this month, assuming the jobs numbers r. O. K. On friday. Tom you mentioned Charles Evans comments, everyone is backtracking from one and done. The idea of, should i manage for currency . Should our listeners and viewers, in our thinking for investment, should we worry about the dollar specifically, or is it an economic curiosity . Edward it affects Asset Classes globally. It is difficult to forecast the dollar, but at eaton vance we take the stock in the positioning in the market. When things reach an extreme, we fade that sentiment. I think there is asymmetric payoffs going the other way. We would look at stocks a weakeningrom dollar. It would be domestic european stocks rather than exporting. Francine thank you so much. He will stay with us for the hour. David serra, with algebris investments. Him aboutlk to bonuses at 6 00 a. M. In new york, 11 00 a. M. In london. This is bloomberg markets. ,n bloomberg tv, bloomberg. Com and streaming. Francine welcome back to bloomberg markets. Can see secretary john kerry briefing the press after a nato meeting in brussels, saying every Alliance Member has expressed backing for the efforts of the syrian support group. He is gratified a number of allies are bringing more to the to increaselanning their contributions. The secretary is calling on every nato ally to step up their support against the Islamic State. Is sendingt the u. S. Ground troops. Lets get to our business flash. The owners of volkswagen have broken their silence about the admissions scandal. The family that owns the majority stake says that volkswagen will get through its crisis. Theyre speaking to workers to dave. Saudi arabias oil minister will listen to other opec members in vienna. Saudi arabia is expected to defend market shares, rather than support prices. Iran and venezuela want opec to curb production and force prices higher. A new standard for philanthropies. Giving away all of their shares of facebook. The plan innveiled an open letter to their newborn daughter. Will retain control of facebook. When he writes the first check for preschool for 30,000, he is going to change. He is going to be like, no, we are not going to do that. 40,000 for to go, a fully rolled at a fancy Montessori School . Oing viral last night wait until they have a second kid. You remember the first kid . Oh. He third kid hero like, congratulations to the zuckerbergs. Mario draghi. Up stimulus. We are joined by the chief economist. And Eddie Perkins is with us as well. Have you read this information, a little bit below what economists were inspect were expecting, but not bad at all. I think the Inflation Report is actually a bad one. The headline numbers were unchanged. He core of fell services and inflation, the best page of domestic regeneration, it fell 1. 1 from 1. 3 . It is not disastrous, right . Does it mean we will get Something Big from draghi tomorrow. Tom lets which over to eddie. He is bloomberg and intelligence because we cannot hear his microphone. They will fix that. We look at the inflation battle in europe, bringing it to the United States. Is that stopped . Andyone was massaging managing a story, all of a sudden you have someone from boston and evans from chicago, why are they doing that . Edward there is a debate within the Central Banks and the fed. There are number of downs that think it may be a mistake to move at this point. We are going to find out what the decision is. Tom he nailed this earlier in that by definition the Central Banks go after the fact. They are an unexposed institution. That is what Governor Carney has provided leadership on by waiting for inflation. Francine we know that Charles Evans is on the dovish side. You said that he looked nervous about doing the liftoff in december. Is he dovish in the fact that i know he is a Voting Member but someone like that in the ecb . Someone should take more note. Tom in the United States we know where mr. Evans is. I would defer to mr. Powell and the battle of the president s, chicago versus richmond marker. Is on a theoretical construct right now. There is no foundation to work from. David i would say that we have seen that in europe, too with draghi versus bike men. Led by their president. We know that yellen is more on the side of introducing that first rate hike, as draghi is on the side in the euro. Please come back and we will have the microphone work next time. Speaking of leaders leading and speaking, chair yellen will be speaking. We will be on the watch with the fed and strategically going into draghis press conference tomorrow. Janet yellen, an important speech at 12 30. Bloomberg markets. ,rancine i am Francine Lacqua in london with tom keene. A rare occurrence. Not only is tom keene in london, but the sun is out. It is a trio of prayer and good events. Tom that is lovely. It has been very gray, hasnt it . Francine it has, but it hasnt rained. Tom from boston, massachusetts and london, with the esteemed eaton vance, Eddie Perkins. Providing leadership in equities and value. After a four year bull market. Edward i think it is outside the u. S. I say that as a u. S. Value investor. Marketsomy and emerging offer a good value, but there is no nearterm battles without the u. S. Dollar weakening that i was talking about earlier. Gdp, all boatsl rise when a nominal gdp bring up the chart. The basic idea is that we had an r. O. K. Nominal gdp that has gone soggy. What is that do with the top line of bluechip stocks . Edward the top line revenue of Multinational Companies draw from the economy. When a nominal gdp goes soft, it hurts the top line and corporate earnings. Particularly in the u. S. Because margins are so elevated, you have to have the topline to drive earnings growth. Tom mergers and acquisitions candidates. M a are you managing guessing who will be taking out . Launched a Union Investment trust that looks for m a targets. Tom was that a shameless plug . Gave me one earlier, you gave me the opening. I think you have to be careful. You cannot put all of your eggs into a mini thesis, that if you companyood fundamental that is attractive, you can get a takeout premium, you can have that as an additional reason to own the stocks. Francine talk about china. Wait two or three years until the volatility and craziness has subsided . Underway china and emerging markets portfolio. I dont think it is as bad as the bear say. They talk about the shadow Banking System and credit losses they have such huge reserves they could recapitalize if they need. It is still good growth in china. Francine it is not a hard landing that we should worry about . Edward dont bet on the extremes. Bet on middleoftheroad, like everywhere else in the world. Idm what you do with an that is stumbling in a cloud . We havent owned that stock in years. I can understand why they are a value investor. It is such a challenging business model. Tom we look at value stocks into 2016. 1. 0ght on bloomberg studio the chairman of sequoia will join emily chang for an important discussion at 9 00 p. M. In new york, 6 00 p. M. In san francisco. Stay with us, bloomberg markets. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Tom an exceptionally busy three days ahead that begins in europe. That is where it is morning, and evening in hong kong as they look forward to a presser tomorrow by mario draghi, the in the American Labor economy on friday. We will be in paris on friday for important discussions by mayors on Climate Change. British Prime Minister David Cameron will Ask Parliament to back expanded military action against the Islamic State. He wants to extend airstrikes into syria. He is likely to win the vote in the house of commons. The Opposition Labor Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will argue against the attacks. Secretary kerry says a number of nato allies will step up the fight against the Islamic State. The u. S. Will send a new force of special operations troops to militants. Mic secretary carter says the unit will conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence, and capture is linux they leaders. And capture Islamic State leaders. A city in egypts airport is closed for evacuation. Themonsoon rains are heaviest in decades. Their speculation and via will cut its growth rate for the economy for 8 next year. That may be cut by half of a percentage point. The head of Templeton Emerging Markets group says that Indias Central Bank may be spurred to act. I think there is room for them to lower rates. They could go lower if reforms are implemented, which we hope will be done. Things are looking up. Vonnie yesterday Indias Central Bank kept rates unchanged. These andget more on other stories 24hours on the new bloomberg. Com. Francine it is time for my morning mustread. This is not one we get every day or year. President assad spoke to check tv earlier this week. Havedo not think they show the real intentions, just because the russian intervention has changed the battle on the ground. Groups iff the you want to do anything to put off the success. I dont think it will change the balance. The work is continuing. , there is noupport way back in that regard. Francine talking about the new position that russia is taking in the middle east. We want to welcome digby jones, the former director of cbi, and also the director of eaton vance. When you listen to president is sought, he warns that france should have learned their lesson. Does the solution come with president assad, or without. Digby i think it is secondary. About islam or syria, it is a group of people liberal,aten tolerance, freedom of worship, assembly, speech, and orientation. Any country on earth, of any religion, that stands up to those values has to help sort this out. Burton is probably the beacon. We are the most liberal, tolerating society on earth. Right to say it is that president assad is right or wrong, president putin is right or wrong, i am keen we go for a coalition of the willing. Not about syria, but to sort out website or you are an . Are you in favor of the values that built a free, tolerant, liberal society or not. Asshould not be seen anything that has to do with christians, jews, anything else. I see this line in between iraq and syria, where we have been bombing iraq for a year, but there is a line drawn by the church in 1915, we can go that side. I want to take the nationalism out of it. It is about the values for which men and women died for a hundred years. Cityfour churches in the andive the blitz of 1939 1940, which was more widespread than most americans knew. We are now trying to do surgical warfare. We are trying to be clinical and surgical. Is there any experience with that works . They without doubt, technology was led to the blitz could be seen with a parallel, but the technology that gives purses and bombing its name is different. I could remember watching channels

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