Commodities are on the move. But i would focus on is this exhaustion at the end of the year, where people are saying when does this stop . There is no indication that it will stop this morning. Francine there is no indication and they are looking for the fed. Tom theyre looking for the fed. Michael mckee will join us. I dont know how the fed links then with iron oil links in with iron ore. Francine and currency traders have been burned on the back of it. Lets get to the first word with nejra cehic. Nejra in paris, the Climate Change conference has been extended by at least one more day. The talks have been sent to end frenchut the foreign minister there are a number of issues to be resolved, among them, how rich nations will pay to help clean up the air. Put off aron has decision on whether to allow another runway at Heathrow Airport. There wont be another decision until the next election. The British Government says there needs to be more research on the environmental impact. Tomorrow. Arabia there will be female candidates in a National Election for the first time. 1000 women are running in 84 municipalities. Mber numbers outnu female voters by 10 to one. Hostages have been rescued from boko haram insurgents. They have been trying to impose islamic law i in northeastern nigeria. Often calleds the chinese Warren Buffett is missing. In sociale reached, media messages say he was seen with police at the shanghai airport, posting bond. Trading shares were suspended. More than 30 Senior Executives of Chinese Companies have gone missing or face government probes this year. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Tom . Tom thank you so much. Less get the day started with the data check. Futures,and i got some the 10 year yield hasnt done anything. Nymexade a run at 1. 10, crude 36. 49. Right to the next board, if you would. Vix 19. 34, that is a change over the week, angst in the market. 30. T crude will under francine and i are looking at iron ore. Francine, the hydrocarbon currencies unwinding canada and mexico nicely. Francine yeah, and on the back of iron ore, chinese fuel production data is coming out tomorrow morning, so watch out for that. European stocks falling for a fourth day. The selloff seems to worsening, before the fed next wednesday. Then we also have to check yen. We have seen a weaker yen this morning that boosted japanese shares. Tom this is one of my most famous charts. This is oil, an approximate foration adjustment, rising incomes. Its an approximation. This is the first time i have ever said this. We are back to 1970, richard nixon. Here is the longterm decline in oil, up the first leg of opec, second leg of opec. Here is when my dad bought that vw rabbit. This is what everyone in the middle east members, the 1986 collapse. Lower for longer, and we are now down, adjusted for inflation, below where we were in 1970. I honestly thought we would never say we are living in the time of nixon. Francine possibly the new normal. There are a lot of things to look at with that. Ia report saying the oil glut will probably last until the end of 2016. Joining us is our guest ghost of the hour, Larry Hathaway. We need to talk said, we need to talk oil, we need to talk yields. How concerned are you that it will be a continuation of the last three months . A lot of pressure in commodities, a lot of pressure on oil as opec keeps on pumping. Larry on the commodity side i think there is continuation. First of all it is about technology, about the advent of bringing oil out of places we didnt think were accessible before. Its also a supply said story in terms of irans reemergence in the oil market. Those two factors contribute to one further issue, which is the cartels work when they have power, but in this world, the power of opec, to be the swing producer, from that perspective, it seems to be pretty intact. This is about supply. There is very little to do with demand. Francine this is longerterm. What happens december 17, the day after the fed . Emerging markets are lower in anticipation. Will we see a shock . We have been prepared for this, but the markets may not have in enough have been enough. Larry how does the fed articulate what it has done, and given the uncertainties, given the fact that the fed has ms. Communicated over the last has miscommunicated over the last 3, 4 months, recent difficulties. The fed, i think, will stay on message. They are data dependent, not reprogramming the future path for shortterm Interest Rates. The day is an issue on of the fed rate hike, i think it will be that the fed is going to potentially face some challenges in terms of shortterm volatility as it uses new tools to guide fed fund rates to their new target. The operational side might be the hidden challenge around the rate increase. Tom larry, you are good at the geek questions. Where does the curve flattening i have a number of emails, they watch every second and they need to get a life i look at the spread, and im sorry, the flattening is that stagnation . Is that recession . Which is it . Larry im not so sure right now that we have to be too concerned about curve flattening. The ecbs actions, that it has easingd to do more, the that is likely to come in some emerging economies, all those things will contribute to the change in yield. The curve is likely to be a bit flatter, but not necessarily an indicator of the u. S. Business cycle. The thirst for yields still exists in this low Interest Rate world. Tom we will dazzle him with two charts. Heres iron ore. Bring it up, if you would. Iron ore further off a cliff with an elegant moving average. We go away from the lehman low. The reaction is the weaker you uan. The ruble is something. This is a quarterly chart on dollarruble. The old circle is quarterly piece. We have absolutely blown through this. I dont care what anybody says, at some point the South African rand, russian ruble, chinese yuan, turkish lira, those are thing that stands in janet yellen cant ignore. Francine as a fund to, the South African rand has just extended losses. Tom see how we do that . That is incredible. Francine you are on it. When you look at whats the rand has done, the rand yesterday was a watershed moment, that they have almost lost faith. Is that fair . Larry i think it is fair, at least for now. They certainly have great doubts. Previously, some internal politics of south africa didnt really touch the two key institutions they have faith in, mainly institutions like the central bank. That is now in question, and we are seeing it play out. I would say that i dont know if this is an issue for the fed. The weakness we are seeing, or the movements we are seeing in currency markets are much more idiosyncratic. Whether it is Political Risk in south africa, for policy risk. We are seeing weakness where there are problems in the commodity space. Turkey, it hasen been relatively more stable. Necessarily a u. S. Interest rate or u. S. Dollar move that is precipitating some of this. Charts, wewo of his are expecting an interstate decision. Is it too early to get into russia . Larry i think it is. I think there was some enthusiasm around the possibility that the geopolitical environment would ease sanctions pressure on russia, allowing investors to move back. That is probably premature, and challenges with turkey have clothes that. Tom Larry Hathaway with us for the hour. Whatg up in our next hour, a perfect time to talk to Martin Sorrell, ceo of wpp. Martin sorrell on the end of the conglomerate. Does he have relationships with the dow, with dupont . Im sure hell have relationships with ei. Stay with us. Tom good morning, everyone. If you are just joining us, commodities have the attention of london. No theatrics like margin calls. Nevertheless, just wait until commodities continues. We are thrilled you are with us. Right now, our Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra thanks, tom. Standard chartered raised more than 5 billion today, about 97 of the shareholders exercising their right to buy stock. That is seen as a vote of confidence in the plan to turn around standard chartered. He is cutting 15,000 jobs. Shares of macau casinos fell in asia today. For hong kong newspaper reports that china will crack down on the use of illegal devices. Thes seen as a way to limit illicit money channeled through casinos. The biggest deal ever in the Chemical Industry is expected to become official today, according to people familiar with the matter. Dow chemical in dupont plant to announce a merger, which would then split into three separate businesses agriculture, specialty chemicals, and commodity chemicals. Investors have been demanding a breakup o. Francine . Francine thank you so much. Quite a lot of m a lets turn to the International Energy agency, for global oil surplus will persist. We are joined by our chief energy correspondent. When you look at the iea report, they are saying that the supply remain very heavy until 2016. Opec keeps on pumping. Javier effectively. Until now we were looking at the glut in the first half of 20 16th as we were going into the second half of next year, we will see the market balancing. What they are saying now is that the glut will continue till the end of 2016. Thatews for Oil Companies, demand growth that until now has been very strong and has compensated for the overproduction from opec, is beginning to slow down. We are not contracting but it is a slowing down. The are to see signs of that across the world. Its not only the u. S. And europe, but also in emerging markets, and that is bad news for oil prices. Francine what does it mean for the other commodities . They are vastly different in supply and demand issues. Javier we dont see much difference between oil and other commodities. Overproduction, a big increase in production, with a lot of investment over the last few years, for prices were very high. That production is coming into the market, just as we have a slowdown in demand. I need to ask a difficult question. We are rationalizing the price of oil. Javier, led to go to you first. What is new, other than it just keeps eroding away . Javier what is new is that we see Oil Companies getting very defensive into 2016. We have seen over the last two days announcements of big spending cuts for 2016, and also big spending cuts for conoco. We are beginning to see Oil Companies prepare for a difficult 2016. The dividends is probably what will follow. Tom i get the dividend idea. Larry, you took your pht out of the university of oil in often. In austin. You get humility about how oil markets clear. Clueless in. How did that clue us in. How do they clear . Larry you cited earlier this morning that sharp climb in price in the mid1980s. It made Student Housing cheaper but it was a difficult time. They clear by going through these very difficult adjustment faces. Market is traditionally very much a boom bust cycle. Largely going to have to come as adjustment from the supplyside. Thatense of the market is it is falling. Tom francine, the Research Paper of the week was carol weinberg, who said that the benefit to the consumer is completely overwhelmed by the declining income affect. That is what we are wit witnessing right now. Francine and the flip side of the coin, and we have jon ferro writing the pessimistic guide to 2016, and he looks at a potential oil shock. Write . Erro can francine and my question is that we talk about oil down on a daily basis, but what if we had a big spike like in the 1970s . Msrry a spike of see unlikely without a major disruption to supply. That they concern at the moment is that price declines that are required to clear the market could definitely introduce a great deal of financial stress. We are seeing it already in highyield, as rising defaults in that space. They can also spread into the emerging universe. It is a balance of payments issue, and from that perspective that is the real risk. Tom javier blas, thank you so much. Really appreciate your briefing through the weekend as we watch glencore react. We will continue with lawrence hathaway. Coming up, we are thrilled to Double Barrel for you. Sorrell. E with martin thrilled about our next hour stay with us. Francine welcome back. Surveillance on bloomberg tv and streaming on bloomberg. Com. This is the time for our morning chose , and we we are talking about Marine Le Pen talking about the president of france. I cant tell you how significant this is, first of all because he did very well in the first round of the regional election. Next sunday we go to the second round. If you look at the polls, she may gain ground. It is unlikely that she will win as many elections. Herhas a softer look thean father, which makes her tom is there an urban, rural angle here . Francine there is, like there always is, when you look at trump and the far right. Its easier for it to rise in less urban populations than in cities, where you are used to more diverse, ethnic communities. Tom will it rip france apart . What i cant get a hand on under a bridge today, i saw all the different parties and candidates. Does this rip france apart . Francine it will rip it apart if she gave a lot of traction, and this has huge invocations for investment, for the social fabric of society. But if she doesnt get anywhere, in the nation will come a little closer together. Larry, how do you view this . This is obviously a Political Risk. Tom is asking if it rips france apart. Im an investor. How can i see it . Larry typically what happens is d, it tended pen die to bring together the middle to vote against the right. There are still going to be some elements of that, and the polls would suggest that she will make as much ground as perhaps might be indicated in the first round, which still makes her a very long shot in terms of the next president of france. I think for investors, probably the focus is not so much on france per se and this particular issue, for what it means for europe. In terms of pulling things apart, it is more europe that is being pulled apart than it is france. Tom Larry Hathaway with us. Coming up on Bloomberg Radio, we will continue discussions on economics. Bloomberg radio, worldwide. Dont forget, bloomberg asia, becoming bloomberg europe. Stay with us. Francine welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance. Look at hong kong as we prepare for the endoftheyear holiday season. Talking will be celebrating. Lets get to the first word, heres nejra cehic. Nejra the Climate Change talks in paris will be running into overtime. Frances foreign minister says he will present a final draft tomorrow instead of today, when the conferences were scheduled to end. The bush haters trying to overcome disagreements on who will pay and shifting to clean energy. Been putting has off this decisions is 2012, now he will decide whether to add another runway at Heathrow Airport next year. The government says more time is needed for environmental studies. The chambers of commerce called it gutless. Migrants inlion beijing will get a new chance of gaining residency status, giving them access to Services Like health care and public schools. This city has a permanent population of more than 20 million. You can get more on these and other breaking stories 24 hours a day at the new bloomberg. Com. Francine . Francine thank you so much. Breaking news out of the russian central bank. Its left its Interest Rates on hold. The ruble, if we get that chart up, is extending its third week of decline as oil slides below 40 per barrel. Tos had prompted economists say that the central bank would not do anything. Tom, i know you are looking at the ruble chart, and it is handinhand with oil, but that Central Bank Governor leaving Interest Rates unchanged. Tom there is a rule that at some point foreignexchange overcomes all. It is the litmus paper for vladimir putin. Well get a compare and contrast i am a couple minutes i in a coupl in a couple minutes but i would suggest that the ruble move is a huge deal, something that cannot be ignored. Francine you are right, and if you look at the longerterm implications over the last three weeks, russias currency has fallen some 7. 2 . You will have more on that next, but first the cup 21 climate talks have been extended at least one more day as World Leaders attempt to finalize the landmark deal. With us to discuss the latest is bloombergs caroline hyde. We are 24 hours away. We still dont have an agreement on finance, on how you share the burden, or the targets. The crucial topics that everyone was fighting over when the talks started almost two weeks ago. When i came in at 6 00 a. M. Gmt, the sofas were littered with people sleeping, covered in suit jackets, because talks had only broken up an hour before. They had gone through the night trying to iron out at least 50 areas of disagreement over the language. Its ambition and its cold, hard cash. How do you monitor, how do you validate the pledges already made by 180 countries, and have you strengthen them . How do you ensure we keep on working at reducing emissions . Big disagreements between china and the u. S. , and then there is also disagreement between the two key oppositions in india about how do you finance it. How do you get 100 billion from the developed world to the developing world . Shouldnt arab nations we helping . Lets face it, they are not so developing anymore. Francine given what you have said, if we do get an agreement, is it going to be a really watereddown agreement . Caroline this is what everyone is worrying about, that there to the too much give in likes of india that doesnt want to be financially at risk, we dont want to be cutting down on coal use quite as quickly as had been anticipated. But i think the foreign minister is really trying to push this over the line. November, these talks started under the cloud that was the ism, and many want to