Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20170515 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance May 15, 2017

It is monday morning, time to look at your data and what it is telling us. There is a little bit of a rally european stocks. Oc crude is the story of the day 48. 93. The nymex is up the tory government, after the weeks we had from the labor manifesto, the pound 1. 2924. We will have more on those equities rising in the optimism surrounding the Chinese International spending plan infrastructure, but first lets get to the bloomberg first word news. An unrivaled global cyber attack will continue claiming victims today as people return to work. Even after hospitals and other facilities gains the upper hand against the malware, it affected organizations and businesses, including the National Health service, russias ministry of interior and nissan. Saudihas jumped after arabia and russia said they favor extending Oil Output Cuts through the end of the First Quarter of next year. The Energy Ministers of the Worlds Biggest Oil producer spoke at a joint News Conference in beijing. We have to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended. We will not reach the desired inventory levels by the end of june. Theefore, we also came to it will probably be better at the end of the First Quarter of 2018. North korea says ebola stick Missile Launch yesterday was the successful test of a medium longrange rocket and has vowed to continue pushing ahead with the program. Americas ambassador to the u. N. Says this shows kim jong un is in a state of paranoia. In germany, chancellor Angela Merkels party decisively won election in the countrys most popular state. This hands the opponents they do this hands the opponents a human leading to feed. The Prime Minister will say whether the conservative party wins the general election and will entered his measures to safeguard wages. Minister, scotlands says a vote for her party will help protect the economy north of the border from the impact of brexit. It is whether you voted leave, or yes or no in 2014. If you vote snp, you are strengthening my hand to make sure scotland is her during these negotiations. Reporter global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you. President xi jinping calls it the project of the century. Pushing for globalization. Some of the leaders have been in beijing to hear about the initiative that will connect china with asia, europe, and africa with infrastructure and investment. Tom mackenzie is in the capital for us. What are chinas hopes for such an ambitious project . Tom we have been getting more details about this vision, chinas attempt to recast globalization in its own image. We have heard from xi jinping a pledge of additional 70 billion in funding for the initiative, and dont forget the Credit Suisse reserve. China could commit up to 28 billion for this. We have seen some of the policy banks, plus private banks like standard chartered, getting on to form a framework about financing. And in asia has told us about a 5 billion credit line they have for a highspeed rail link. Are there has been he likes of the chairman of chinas biggest oil and gas company telling us of 20 billion worth of deals he has been doing. As you. 2, they are concerns here. On germans are holding back this project. They are concerned their companies will not be given a level playing field. They are asking, are European Companies going to get the same look as Chinese Companies . We have heard some concerns from Christine Lagarde from the imf. She wants to make sure these projects meet environmental standards. A range of issues needs to be addressed here for many here, and i have not touched on the geopolitics. India is remaining away from this summit because they are so concerned about chinas activities and the partnership with pakistan. We are as nothing more detailed today with a communique from the chinese side. Francine we will have more from tom throughout the day. We also have two great guests this morning, but chinas factory output, we found out about this morning and it was dialed back again in april. What we are seeing with industrial output, rising below expectations. Retail sales increasing less than perspective, 10. 7 . Fixed Asset Investment coming putting in the rural areas, expanded. Lets get to our guest, nick us, but and also with investor with more than 40 years of experience in emerging markets, he is mark mobius. Thank you both for joining us. Mark, let me start off with you because china is your specialty. What do you make what we have heard so far . They are trying to take care of this financial leverage, then maybe we will see a little bit a lot of the data coming in short of what analysts expected. I think we will reach the 6 target this year, even with this pullback. The pullback has been long and coming. Some of these companies have been overleveraged. A lot of these individuals have been buying theses trusts and the government is rightly concerned. The moves they are making are good and they are early enough so they can head off a crisis. At the end of the day, they will meet that target. Particularly now, with this one raod program, this would put a lot of companies in the money. Francine are you concerned that there is either a regulatory misstep, or that you have to stabilize one, you have to make sure there are not too many outflows and you have the third kind of trinity they have to deal with. It will be difficult to stabilize the economy on all three fronts. Are you concerned about a financial crisis . There is no question that impacts the exchange rate, but at the end of the day, they have the levers to regulate and make sure money does not go out too quickly and they have already begun that effort, so when money goes out, it is very targeted and specific. Francine nick, what is your main concern about china . When you look at china, what a lot of people miss is the quality of the growth rate. It is a lower growth rate, 6 to 6. 5 , but look at the fixed Asset Investment. That really demonstrate, looking forward, a much better quality growth rate from china. Francine nick, what i was curious about, president xi jinping is doing globalization and has committed 78 billion in infrastructure. This is really a country that wants to be very open . Or is this the kind of they want to remain closed inside . The country wants to trade more. That is the key, isnt it . When you look at the global economy, traders have slipped off. Going forward, trade will increase. Displace,can they the u. S. And Trump Administration as the most global country in the world . There is no question that the u. S. Will be impacted. I have no doubt they will have to join the program. There is a lot benefit to be achieved by u. S. Companies. They will have to be very careful to not favor Chinese Companies unduly. There weris going to be enough for everyone. Francine it was going to benefit the most . Neighboring countries quest direct . The neighboring countries will benefit quite a lot. And europe will benefit quite a lot because the europeans will get a piece of the action, and trade will increase to medically once the program will increase dramatically once the program is completed. Francine how does this translate into your world of fixed income . Of the size of the infrastructure investment, you have the marginal demand for commodities increasing. The this also does is, at margin, it will add to reflationary pressures. And and mark stay with us. Bidding for the spanish competitor. The 16. 30 4 billion euro offer would create the worlds biggest operator of toll roads. They are seeking to boost earnings by acquiring assets outside of the home company. Andsaid profit is on track it plans to pay a dividend for the first time in three years. Germanys biggest power producer says the Energy Trading is helping compensate for the weak power prices. The Company Plans a dividend for 15 euro cents this year. The manufacture of diagnostic testing equipment is in talks to purchase the dutch drugmaker. According to people with knowledge of the matter, an agreement could be reached this week. Ofrmo fisher has a value 3. 8 billion. Neither company could be reached for comment. G7 finance ministers have signaled a truce with Donald Trumps Administration Using a communicate. Said other nations are starting to understand the administrations economic agenda. People are much more comfortable today now that they have had the opportunity to spend time with me and listen to the president and here our economic message on what the trump economic agenda is. And that is about creating growth in the United States, which is good for us, and i think will be good for other parts of the world. Francine still with us, mark mobius from Templeton Emerging Markets group and from jpmorgan, nick gartside. When you look at all of this trade, trade wars, protectionism, can we be sure it has abated . Or do you look at the Trump Administration to give you an idea of what the psyche is . It has not abated yet. There is a lot of bargaining to be taking place in the coming years. I think the strategy of the Trump Administration is to have Bilateral Agreements to get around these multilateral agreements that have been the straitjackets for many of these countries, including the u. S. This is not going to happen overnight. Generally speaking, i think it will be beneficial for everybody concerned. Morell enter into a lot flexible magoo cheating between these countries more flexible negotiating between these countries. Francine is it beneficial for all countries involved, this bilateral trade . When you look at the fixed income space, do you pick emerging markets, or do you see them as a whole, just when you trade . In aggregate, it is beneficial. Debate is here with us for a long time to stay. The other reality is, look at Global Supply chains, very highly integrated and correlated. When you look at the fixed income side and emerging markets , the message is, not all emerging markets are equal. Some are commodity producers, some are commodity exporters. You need to cherry pick there. We look at emerging markets and it has been the surprise of the year, in terms of positive returns. Francine which ones do you pick . The Structural Reforms . You get a bit of that, and the ones where there is high yield. I top from the fixed income standpoint, for both currency and bonds. Russia, indonesia and even turkey looks pretty exciting for us. Timeselding two to three with what you would get from treasury yields. Francine mark, i know you are big on the Frontier Markets at some point. Markets areier important, but in terms of size and liquidity, we have a problem because you cannot put too much money into these markets. We are seeing a lot of opportunities in the countries we just mentioned. Simply because many of them have been beaten down during the last three years, ending in january of last year when we started to see a recovery, but still, many of them are far below where they should be. We see a lot of opportunities in these countries, whether it be brazil, mexico, turkey, particularly in asia. Both india and china are growing at 6 to 7 . Francine how do you deal with Political Risk . Im talking about geopolitics. , butxample, suouth korea also some of the neighboring countries. Korea is the bellwether of what is happening around the rest of the world and that is because of this communications revolution, because everybody has a smart phone and can communicate and learn what is going on in their political atmosphere, we are seeing big and the reforma taking place under the new administration. And this is going to be beneficial for markets, generally speaking because the shareholders will get noticed again. That is important. Francine nick, as we Start Talking about the Balance Sheets , can you absolutely be sure there are no emergingmarket temper tantrums . They should not be. When you look at the emerging markets, there are gigantic Balance Sheets from the bank of china. They have been a lot of qe. The Balance Sheet is not far from the size of the feds. When you look at other emerging markets, there are Smaller Government Balance Sheets. The key for emerging markets is global growth. The economy is growing again, so coupled with these and valuations, they are attracting capital. Francine post a with us. Up next, the global hack attack. We have the latest on the unprecedented cyber strike. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Unrivaled global cyberattacks will continue claiming victims today as people return to work. The malware has affected organizations and businesses, including the National Health service, and nissan. The scale of the attack is staggering. This is something we have not seen before. The global reach is unprecedented. How many countries question mark over 200,000 victims in at least 150 countries. Francine lets get more with the bloomberg tech reporter. , nickill with us, gartside. Vulnerable . Horrible . It most of those affected by this attack had not applied the patches, and they were using outdated operating systems. You must stay up today on your systems. The other big lesson is how easy it is now with the spread of these hacking tool kits online. And very sophisticated of what used to be the purview of nationstates has become easy to exploit. Francine is it just updating . It would not have cost very much to have presented this, but once you have a situation, it is very expensive to fix. Ounce the lessons is an of possession is worth a pound of cure. Francine in the past seven to eight months, we saw Central Banks from emerging Market Countries being under cyber attack. Bangladesh lost i dont know how many tens of millions of dollars by such an attack. I believe we will see more and because more h and more organizations are depending upon the internet and depending on globalization. It is very dangerous, what we are facing with the spread of the internet globally. Francine with pakistan entering the emerging market index, what is your favorite frontier market . In terms of the frontier, i would say vietnam. They are doing everything right, making all kinds of very good reforms. I believe they will be growing at a fast pace Going Forward. But there are a number of other good front your markets that could be interesting Going Forward as well. Francine jeremy, going back to the attacks, if you look at Central Banks around the world, are they taking precautionary measures question mark is there a body that looks into it . Bitcoin is the preferred currency for these attacks because it is considered anonymous. One of the interesting things about it is you can trace each of the transactions being made. You can potentially trace it back to someone. If you can then put that address with a name and face, which is what Law Enforcement would like to do. Going back to the Central Banks, they are under a lot of pressure. But they are also taking precautions, because they know it is a lot of money and that was a real wakeup call, what happened with bangladesh. Francine is it linked to social media . You believe there is less volatility in the markets because traders and investors are looking more at social media, and so they understand less. There is no question it has to do with social media. With a smart phone, you are on social media, you are on the internet, you are in a database. And a smart guy or gal can really mess up the whole system on a global basis. Francine what about the global stress index . It is going down and this is linked to your point. Will this continue to go down . I think it will stay around this level, maybe go down a bit more. I think the reason for this situation is, with social media, with the kind of news we are getting, false or not false, people are not sure what the facts are, people are quite confused. Therefore, when people are confused, they tend to pull back and not trade. Or, if they are trading, they are trading in very small increments. Latility . Ot create volai francine what are we expecting in terms of hacks today . We have not seen much yet this morning, but the expectation is there will be another wave, targeting the same institutions that were targeted on friday. Francine up next, we the two peter hamrbo. Up next, we speak to peter hambro. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to the bloomberg first word news. Heres nejra cehic. Nejra china has laid the foundations for a new trade routes, calling it the product project of the century. President xi jinping pledged 70 billion to the initiative as he repeated his support for globalization. Anaking of challenges, unrivaled global cyber attack is poised to continue claiming victims today as people return to work and turn on their computers. Hospitals and other facilities gained the upper hand against the first wave. The malware affected organizations and businesses including the u. K. National health service, russias ministry of interior, and carmakers nissan and renault. North korea says a ballistic Missile Launch yesterday was a successful test and has vowed to continue pushing ahead with its nuclear program. Americas ambassador to the human s

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