Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20140811 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse August 11, 2014

Welcome to those waking up in the United States. This is the pulse. Lights, camera, and lots of action. What does it take to make a stunt performer . Lust, putting their best faces ialward, the newe face recognition software. From turkey to russia to israel, we have it covered. We have our international correspondent, hans nichols, live. Ryan chilcote is here with me in the studio. The nation has deployed troops in baghdad. Aviv atins us from tel the latest on gaza. That start with hans. Erdogan wins the president ial election. 52 of the vote, extending his leadership until 2019. It has consequences. It has consequences. The question for erdogan is does he take the power play, the pageantry of it all, and can he do it seamlessly. The leading Business Group has called for him to stop polarizing turkey. The question today is what is the reaction going to be from erdogan and the International Community . The lira is down. It has been down this morning. The stock market is up. There is some optimism there. The question for erdogan, what does he due to continued growth in this country. Years. He last 10 or 11 4 this year. To 2 . S put it closer inflation is a problem. He seeks to consolidate power, may erode some of the independence of the central bank and that may mean putting pressure on the central bank not to increase industry, to keep money easy as turkey continues to grow. 10 theo make the country the 10th biggest economy by 2020. Right now, it is the 17th. I was having a conversation saying it was important in terms of the Prime Minister, in terms of flexibility, and in terms of openness to change. Who are you hearing he might appoint . This meeting is going on now justice and Development Party and they are asking themselves the question, can the current president be installed as the Prime Minister . He could be able worth against erdogans party. Will he muster the party to take on will he muster the courage to take on erdogan . August 28 is when the new president has to be inaugurated. We are looking at weeks, not months. Thank you for that. We will speak to you over the next couple of days. Turn our attention to iraq and the Nations Capital are. And the nation Prime Minister. Ryan chilcote is here with the details. Line, obama and a number of other nations push to create an inclusive government. This is not solution kind of stuff, is it . You have the iraqi prime making a clear he intendsvening to to stay in power. Also, perhaps even go on the offensive, accusing the president of being unconstitutional and extending the parliament, the amount of time a parliament has to examine other candidates for the position and deploying some troops in the iraqi capital, including troops around the home of the president of iraq, suggesting perhaps he is being aggressive. John kerry said u. S. Supports the iraqi president. We hope the iraqi Prime Minister does not intend to stir the water. You have the situation to the north, the u. S. Has been using airstrikes to strike acca at the islamic state. We just learned the Associated Press is reporting the United States is already arming kurdish fighters. Isnt it . A big step, it is a big step. We are not discussing the possibility of arming. Sources will not say which agency is doing that. Thean assume mib one of more secretive because of the way we are learning this information. Certainindicate a readiness for the u. S. , if not to directly get involved, because obama has been clear there will not be u. S. Troops on the ground, to do as much as they can in a longdistance proxy. Airstrikes, weapons to the kurds. People trading oil said, there kurdish oil to supplies in the north of the country. The larger supplies in the south of the country were safe. They do not see a geopolitical problem. Thele are unconcerned about situation on the ground in iraq itself. So long as the kurdish Oil Continues to flow, it might not be the level that the market wants to see, but it is intact. Take me to russia. In exxon going towards their big joint expression project and putin saying it is good, a great thing. It shows harmony in relationships. He gave the goahead in a very public way to start drilling. He said he pushed the button manythe black sea on what people are calling the most important well to be drilled this year, and he where in the world. The head of exxon was there. Great. Id this was they are spending 700 million to see if there is any oil there. Aty will not know that for least 70 days. For the likes of bp, who has a 20 stake, it is now the most controversial. I thought there were sanctions to prevent them from ratcheting up their oil supply, and what is interesting here, perhaps this shows that the sanctions might be more toothless than we thought. The drilling equipment that they are using, and drills to a depth of about 240 feet. Wereestrictions that imposed last week applies to depths of 500 feet and greater. Was this just rhetoric from the European Union . Thank you very much for that. Lets cross from the russian and iraqi soil to gaza and israel. Hamas militants have begun another 72 hour ceasefire. Time to putotiators a lasting deal in place. David joins us from tel aviv. What needs to happen before a ceasefire . He for this ceasefire expires again . Sides are steadfast in what their demands are from the ceasefire and talks and what they expect to happen. The rhetoric is the same, even though they have reached a threeday truce. Hamas is calling on israel and blockade. Ase the they want to show the Palestinian People that they have achieved something meaningful and did not just drop on themselves this war without bringing anything to the Palestinian People. They are trying to get the blockade eased up on gaza and they are talking about a seaport and airport in gaza. They do not want hamas to achieve anything whatsoever because that would allow hamas to say they are victorious. Both sides are very much at a conflict and not indicating any signs of being able to reach some sort of longer, more enduring truths. Truce. The faction bank based in the west bank would perhaps come to gaza and oversee the easing of the blockade and the movement of goods and people in and out of the borders. That is being floated around a bit more now. Calling forelis are the army to go back in, take gaza. How realistic is that . A bit of a talk here and israel, especially for the more conservative elements of the government, of the israeli parliament. Into gaza, to show hamas they cannot keep firing rockets in definitely. To take back the gaza strip and rockets and of the weaponry. Benjamin netanyahu has been clear that he is not seeking to go back into gaza right now. That still seems unlikely at this point. We will leave it there. Ahead, a crude discussion how much impact will the ongoing geopolitical tensions have on the price of war . We will talk about that when we come back. Welcome to the pulse. For a quake foreignexchange check for you. Traders at their best. The most bullish in over a year. This week is a big week. Retail sales come out over the course of the week. Rise. Looking for a deescalation of risk around the marketplace. We are seeing quite a position of long, if there is a deescalation. Money is still going into the dollar. Money is coming out of the yen, against all major currencies this morning. You are seeing a little bit of a shift there. The overall tone is one of dollar bullishness. Our next guest says despite the geopolitical conflict, there will be limited impact on oil prices. Joining us now, the Energy Strategist at bnp paribas. Nearterm, the market seems to be appeased that there is the american strikes defending the kurdish positions in iraq and the fact that iraq still remains intact. Oil prices have fallen about three dollars over the week. That tends to lead to higher prices. The general census, supply and demand is balance. Particularly, in iraq, surprise from iraqi exports of crude, which comes from southern iraq to almost exclusively. It is the longerterm issues that need to concern the markets. Those issues, we have america in air act, but we have the deploying, malachi, troops on the streets. Inthe biggest threat that three years time they are not in a stable position . Within the threeyear window, the fear is can the Oil Production from southern iraq be sustained . Going forward, i think this issue about investment in new place,ion does not take the hope for increasing iraqi emerge as, it may not quickly. Iraq, the northern Kurdish People have plans to via their own pipeline into turkey. This is a scope for this production being delayed. That will also have an impact on iraqiraqi on planned production. A bigger macro picture, u. S. , there is no structural problem with supply. Is that fair to say . You have the bombs and moments of agitation, supply is plentiful and will go on to be plentiful. Produced fromo be unstable areas, perhaps no one could Oil Production has collapsed. No one has anticipated the isis would gain a foothold in iraq. Mineare the elements that lead to that oil being disturbed. If it is disturbed, saudi arabia would be able to make up some shortfall. World has,that the if there is an additional outage, it is very small. As a consequence, that feeds into prices. We have a Current Situation where the markets can cope with limited supply disruptions. At the moment, we are in a situation where the consequences , oil exports in iraq have not been affected. About the demand side. We are going to get a flush of gdp in europe this week. Geopolitics at play. From the demand side, what is your research telling . What is the baseline assumption on Global Growth . How is china plan to that . A lot of it is predicated on developing economies. Also, we are seeing growth reemerging from economists. There have been a few economies with oil demand growth. Concern about me around the , with enhanceder coveringcal risk, europe may be impacted by economic sanctions that might take place on russia. This has an impact on the risk of reducing expected rate of oil demand growth. They might come in slightly lower. Geopolitical tension t tends to lead to a stronger dollar. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Gareth lewisdavies at bnp paribas. Screensme, famous fight fight scenes on the screen. They play some of the biggest roles in movies, but we never get to see their faces until now. The Unsung Heroes behind blockbuster films. Being the stunt performer, you are maybe one of the coolest people. We get to play for a living. We do action sequences for films from beginning to end. We core graph we choreographed fight scenes and choreographed the filming of them in the movie. Some have dance backgrounds and breakdancing, you need people with extreme talent. I was a gymnast. I dont have a fight the background at all. When i my first punch stepped foot in this jim. Gym. Every job is different. The hunger games is running and jumping, axman is more Like Fighting and flipping. Is more Like Fighting and flipping. It was the passion in martial arts that allowed me to build this company. There are actors i can do 90 of their stunts and can do them better than their stock performers. Pitt, matt damon, hugh jackman. Tricks to thet of trade. The stunt double is more prominent in the film then you realize. There are ways to disguise them. A lot of our stuff is rigging wires,d, safety photography that we apply to green screen elements that make us look like we are in a dangerous spot. Face, iu cannot see the would say it is usually a stunt double. Most of the time, they are not hitting each other or making contact. There are accidents sometimes where people get hit. I have had knee reconstruction and have broken my wrist in four places. It is part of the job. You accept the risk. Welcome back. Manus cranny. Here are your Bloomberg Top headlines. Traded higher after consumer inflation came in below the government boss goal for july. The communiststs Party Leaders have leeway to roll out more stimulus measures to support the economy. The Ukrainian Government is rejecting a ceasefire off offer from the prorussian rebels. Travelingmakers from ukraine to europe. A revised merger proposal. The merger would undermine the sale process of its new yorkbased units. Rillion approached the company to revive talks that collapsed in late july. Those are your headlines, lets get a touch on the markets. We have the balance. Equities up across the board. Dax, up by 1. 33 . The index was down from his 2014 hi. German tenure is a little lower today. Still near record lows. There was a period of severe market stress. The difference between now and then, italy. Record lows. Italy. Not painting a pretty picture of the euro zone economy. Let me bring you three things today. We talked about balfour beating carillion. Two big banks. They maintain the inclusion of those particular stocks. News for the russian lenders, stocks are up by over 3 . A stronger krone, why . Cpi comes in higher than anticipated. Matt campbell joins me now. This is the second time that balfour has rejected carillion. Return the funds to the shareholders. What has gone wrong . Karelian carillion came. Ack to balfour why is it so important . Is it a trance formation of a part of the business . It was seen a bit of a crown jewel. There was some surprise when balfour decided to sell it. Thestate was that acquisition was not working out. A betweene is the two companies. The road to organic growth can be long and not always smooth. The door is closed . I did not think it is totally closed. Are making an effort to make the door slightly open. It does mean they are trying to signal the market that this could still happen. Hostile deals are not the hallmark of british m a. I do not think it is a cultural thing. If you look back at the history of the city of the financial market, there have been plenty of hostile deals. They have almost become a bit of a taboo. Pfizerastra did not go hostile. Part of that is the Takeover Code that was making it more difficult to go hostile. We still have some skittish chief executives. You have to feel very good about the world and future, and perhaps we are not there yet. It is 25 minutes to go. Tom keene is revving up in new york as we speak. I hear you have a big ceo. We will talk about iraq, certainly. Troops within the green zone. Richard haas will join us. He is president of the console. We will speak about iraq. We are looking forward to speaking with richard haass. Richard johnstone will join us. We will speak to the head of the eurasia group. We have looked at turkey and russia. When you look at that, it really is it turns and swivels on a knife edge. At least to a lot of controversy. One of the back stories was criticism by secretary clinton. Real criticism of the Obama Administration and how they have applied their strategies to iraq. It,om, we look forward to as always. Tom keene at the top of the hour with bloomberg surveillance. Lets talk tech. In an effort to fight crime, one Police Forces testing they show recognition systems. It is analyzing their records apartt local crooks, but from becoming a police tactic, doesnt hold a greater role for the future of our lives . Hold a greater role for the future of our lives . Getting a positive id on who committed the crime. They are running a sixmonth trial to see how it holds up. Footage, and if we can get an image from that if it is a good enough quality, we will download it onto the search database, we will run it. It will give any potential matches. A human operator is still needed to check the matches. It has brought back the top 200 potentials. Purely looking at facial features. This is where i can zoom in on faces for distinctive features. Potentiale officer a person. If the person is not in the database, the system does not work. Estimated run has an success rate of 44 . Another version allows employers monitor movements in real time. An improvement. It recognizes returning come customers, allowing to start targeting. Facial Recognition Technology could turn your face into a commodity. Following the recent scandals and mass surveillance and how changelic reacts, it may how technology affects our lives in the future. Pretty scary stuff. Coming up, a new turkey. We are live to discuss the road ahead for turkey and the results of the nations first president ial elections. Welcome back to the pulse. The elections that is what we are focused on. Turkeys Prime Minister has won the direct president ial election. It extends his rule through 2019. Hans, you have a special guest. We have a special guest. The man who knows the country cold. We were last you the first question we will ask you the first question. The Prime Minister . He is too independentminded for the kind of cabinet that erdogan wants to have. Will not even play a prominent goal and the convention. My candidate, the leading candidate is the Current Foreign Affairs minister. Outsiders are named, i have not really heard. [indiscernible] wants bowlers, he wants yesmen. That is correct. A his vision, he needs streamlined administration. A man who can meet the nerve ends of the state. The functionry out or duties as expediently as possible. The drawback is that there would be no checks and balances in turkish policymaking. Jeopardizing or where is a oneman show. Russia have oil and natural gas well. Turkey does not have those natural resources. This is a guy who keeps playing. I am afraid it is not going to be the new Economic Policy of turkey, which means alibaba is out. His protege, the central bank [indiscernible] well be forced to cut rates. Or resign and be replaced by someone. Is very much at risk. Very much at risk. If he does not resign, he will change the law and change the central bank mandate. Belation targeting will abandoned. The central bank will report to the president s office. The lira is on sha

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