To the pulse. The greek fiscal odyssey moves on to germany today. Graces finance minister will meet the ecb president in frankfurt today. Lets get to our international correspondent, hans nichols in germany. What kind of a reception is he going to receive in frankfurt . Who is going to be the first dimension tbills . I guess varoufakis has to mention tbills because he has to figure out some way to finance. This entire longerterm payoff deal in maybe april or may, or even june, hinges on their ability to get some sort of bridge financing from the ecb. So far, theres been no indication that they are willing to give that bridge financing. They might need anywhere from 10 billion is one number in terms of raising the ceiling. The ft is reporting that the ecb is unlikely to raise that ceiling. Importantly, here in germany, my colleagues reported that Angela Merkels government is thinking about playing the long game to wait until april or may. Listen to what merkel had to say yesterday when she was talking about this. She didnt seem overly impressed with the offers from greece. The greek government obviously still is working on its position, which is understandable if you think how few days this government has been in office. We shall wait for proposals and then enter into talks with them. I dont want to actually comment on every single detail. Sufficient opportunities. That sounds like an opportunity for a long game, potentially a hard game. Yesterday, we saw greek yields come down a little bit. Today they are back up, maybe as the market digests this notion that the ecb has to sign off on any of this. Hans, in an interview, it seems the greek finance minister also seemed to suggest greece taking some of the 7 billion euros from the bailout. There is 7 billion left in the trench. If they stay in the program they get that. It is unclear whether they can access that if they plan to leave the program. Here is what is interesting about the 1. 9 billion, what they say they want to take. That is the number greece says the ecb as earned off of interest from the loans. Varoufakis said that is our money. Unclear whether the ecb subscribes to that same view. I imagine that is going to be one of the first topics of conversation when they meet in frankfurt. Hans thank you very much indeed. For more news and analysis of that greek tour of europe, lets go to where you can go to, our Bloomberg Business site. Bloomberg. Com. There is a really fun piece you should check out on our website. A bit of game theory. This is what mr. Varoufakis specializes in. Weve been thinking about the games he might be playing. Jim oneill is here. Hes a bloomberg columnist as well. Former chief economist at Goldman Sachs. Good morning. What do you make of all this . I dont know why ive got it in my head since the weekend that it is noise about nothing. A decision has been made that greece is starting a new, so one way or another, they are going to do a deal. Germany . Germany and brussels. They are ready to go, how far . We are talking about tbills. At the same time, it is basically, stop austerity. They want to increase wages, higher more people and disregard budget rules. I see it going slightly different. Im presuming that this idea about nominal gdp is the basis of some real deal. Not least because it seems quite sensible to me. That means nothing. Sensible and europe dont often go together, do they . But it has got some kind of implicit [indiscernible] [indiscernible] i dont really see how germany can be opposed to that. How can they pay back 175 with no growth . It is sort of stupid. They are making it clear they want to be in the eu. Is germany going to encourage the ecb to have a greek bankroll . Doesnt make sense. Would germany want to have the blame of forcing somebody out . Dont really make sense. Unless the greeks are saying, we want out, theyve got quite a lot of cannons in their hand. Weve come a long way on worrying about it. Weve turned the corner of it. Obviously, its going to be a load of noise. What are the implications for other eurozone countries that face similar problems . Thats the more intriguing issue, especially if the gdp bond debt swap thing becomes real. It could be enormous. You look at the place im sort of surprised there isnt more talk about germanyitaly. No nominal gdp growth for the last decade. We talk about japanification of europe area that has been happening in italy for ages. Italy desperately need Something Like this. Isnt it easier to do if the bulk of the debt is held by sovereigns from private markets . Of course. It is kind of what goes with it. This implicit acknowledgment that these countries need at least nominal gdp growth. And, the other thing which is not irrelevant in this regard, quite a few periphery countries are showing signs of better growth than people thought. At least until oil prices started going up again. Lower oil prices are good for europe. Maybe, think of the positive outcomes at least for a while. Im not in the markets anymore, but if i were, thats how i would be thinking. So you are optimistic that we will deeal with greece in an orderly matter. Everybody has taken this sort of brink. , a different version of the game theory. Weve had a lot of that the past few weeks. I think everybody has seen what the other alternatives could be and they are coming to, ok haggle Something Like they always do in europe. But at some point, it may not be good enough. At the end of the day, the bigger call problem in my judgment is a germanic this notion in germany that reform is the same as fiscal conservatism. To me, it is nonsense. The germans can persist with this idea that every country in europe has got to be like germany. So of course, big picture, this is enormous. On this latest episode, my hunch is that we may have gone through the worst of it. All right, optimistic view. We havent had many of those. Jim oneill, bloomberg columnist is sticking around. We have talk about oil, elections elsewhere and a little thing called centralbank policy in denmark. Denmark. Whoever thought we would be talking about the danish centralbank . Joking. We had another bloomberg columnist saying he had seen the movie before. It never ends well. Good for the danish centralbank study in the spotlight. Maybe not for the right reason. Hold that thought. What else is on our radar . Standard poors has downgraded six european banks. Credit, lloyds, barclays, all had their ratings cut. S p cited reduced likelihood of Government Support for the banks in a crisis under new european legislation. Broadcaster sky reported a 17 rise in firsthalf revenue after more customers signed on for his services. Sales increased to 4. 3 billion pounds. Skies chief Financial Officer told bloomberg that the companys focus would now shift to mobile. Mobile is the next category of products that we look to bring to market once we are through the headwind we have got in things like Home Communications and hd. We go into that with the brand that customers say in this space is the leading brand that they would like to purchase more services from. Disney has posted firstquarter sales earnings that beat estimates. Results were boosted by stock holiday scales of, you guessed it, frozen gifts. Plenty of those in my house. The company saw income rise 19 . Bob iger told bloomberg that he sees Growth Potential in china. The huge growth of movie screens in china to the point where china is the number two movie market in the world, if this continues, it will be the number one movie market. Coming up, oil taking a hit on the 2014 hack attack and the cost of low pay and deflation. We are going to speak to the shadow secretary of work and pensions about wage inflation. Our twitter question of the day. When was the last time you got a pay rise . Let us know. Welcome back to the pulse. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio. We are mobile and we have a new website as well. Lets get to todays top stories. Rescuers are at the scene of a plane crash near taipei. An airliner plunged into a river after hitting a taxi. The airline has confirmed 19 deaths and 23 people unaccounted for in the second accident in less than a year for this Taiwanese Airline. At least seven people have been killed in a train crash in new york state. A Railroad Train struck a car during yesterday evenings rushhour. At least 12 others were injured. Jordan has executed two iraqi prisoners as retribution after Islamic State militants released a video showing a pilot being burned alive. The incident comes two days after i. S. Announced the execution of a japanese hostage. Oil is back, or is it . It is in the boom market. Ryan chilcote joins us with the latest. The oil price seems to have stalled. Why . One reason might be crude inventories in the United States. We get the official numbers at 10 30. We have two surveys showing that economists believe the surplus is only getting bigger in the United States. They think the stockpile steak tied could have risen by 3. 25 Million Barrels. There was another one saying they felt there might be more of a surplus. I guess if you have a surplus that is getting bigger, then that is not very bullish for the oil price. Beyond that you look at crude production in the United States it is rising. Opec production, if the countries are to be believed, is rising according to the figures we got for january, thanks to the saudis and the iraqis. Finally, we also see take the oil price for the last 50 days and find the mean. It is 58. It was just around 58 that we saw the price of oil drop. A lot of people say that that is an indicator that it is a time when sellers or traders tend to sell because they think may be prices are getting a little hefty. Ryan, walk us through sort of why we got the rally in the first place. The rally looks fairly inconsequential, but people are paying a lot of attention. What kicked it off . Run us through the process. I think that is exactly right. What kicked it off was on friday. Nobody spells out what is going on in the market to is in clear language, but there does to appear to be a correlation. Oil producers in the United States are using less rigs than they were a week before. If you look at the number of rigs producing oil right now, it has been declining. Thats the whole idea that some of the Spare Capacity is coming off the market perhaps in the future, because it doesnt make economic sense at these price levels for those shale producers to be pumping. That survey doesnt reveal what kind of rigs, or what the rigs are being used for. Whether they are being used for shale, or conventional vertical. The analysts say, it is hard to come up with any specific event. Maybe it is just bargain hunters people covering their shorts. We see plenty of that. All you have to do is go back to january 16. That was the last day before this rise where you saw oil rise by more than 5 . There is plenty of reasons for the price of oil to go up. We just had a report that some gunmen seized an oil field in libya. The oil price right now is falling. I dont think in the long term anybody thinks that adds up to much with all this oil on the market. Ryan chilcote with the latest on oil. For more on what is behind the oil markets, check out Bloomberg Business. Heres one theory for why oil is going nuts. Jim oneill is still with us. Can i draw a line ryan is talking about the rate counts can i draw a line between greece and a little bit of euphoria or a relaxing of the Market Conditions . Well, yes. It could be but of course it has fallen so dramatically since november. On top of what was already a pretty powerful trend. After being pretty negative about oil, possibly so. I personally bought [indiscernible] as the year was turning. I hope this is the beginning of a bit of a reversal. I guess it is pretty close to where we are here. If i remember rightly. Maybe a little higher. I concluded rightly or wrongly about three years ago the right price for oil is about 80. It was way higher than that. It took a long time for it to come down. I think what has happened since the turn of the year is what i call big overshoot territory. Who knows if Something Like oil changes with how people traded . Ive joked on this program before, it makes foreignexchange markets seem easy. I dont believe it is really in anybodys real longterm interest, including the u. S. For oil to continue to drop. If there is a structural bullish story about the u. S. That everybody seems to assume is the case, isnt shale oil part of it . Is the u. S. Really apt to disappear like that . I think the answer is no. Just listening to [indiscernible] could the changing of the guard in saudi arabia have something to do with why everyone is saying there is no change in policy, but wasnt his funeral this past thursday . A lot of factors. Where do you see it going . Going up and stabilizing, or because there is so much slack oil is stable. Stable is lets say a range of ive got my mind on it being back 70 to 80 this year. What happens after that . If it starts to recover if this is the beginning of a recovery, investment wont drop that much. The way a lot of these oil guys think and ive spent so many of my 30 odd years thinking about it and talking to them they have this view of the equilibrium. It was very fashionable this time a year ago to say 100. You can see with the way a lot of them are talking, they are on the verge of saying, it is now 40. If they start doing that, you get into a selfperpetuating circle for a while. It starts to go back up again they are like oh could you imagine being one of these guys . The psychology and the behavior about big Investment Decisions is pretty important. My hunch is that, we had a lot of excess overhang for years and it resulted in this avalanche of selling. All the speculators jumped on the trend. All the shortterm players have to cover their positions. Very briefly, where is the dollar if oil is at 80 . Simultaneous to this massive consensus about the u. S. Structurally as the place to be is this remarkable consensus about the dollar. I dont think it is an the u. S. s longterm interest to have a repeat of the mid1980s or 1990s. A lot of people say the dollar has gone up a lot, but not like then. If im the u. S. Treasury secretary, im not going to allow it. Part of the story is making sure that u. S. Companies want to produce. It is easy to have been bullish for the dollar. I was myself. Here, if we see a resolution in europe and blah blah blah, it is not so clearcut to me anymore. Stick around. Jim oneill, bloomberg columnist and former Goldman Sachs chief stays on for another half hour. S p cuts its ratings on six big european banks saying they are less likely to get government help in a future crisis. We will explain the move in an interview you will see first on bloomberg. Welcome back to the pulse live from Bloomberg European headquarters in london. That is jim oneill over there. Bloomberg columnist. Just checking his watch. Lets talk about the u. K. Election coming up. Nobody seems to have got their arms around the risk associated with this. What is your gut feel . Is the u. K. Economy more fragile than the data seem to suggest . What is the potential for the election to upset it . The cyclical momentum seems to be strong. We have a seemingly neverending reoccurring question about the balance of the recovery. Given the past 15 months, thats something im particularly interested in. I think this Current Coalition has good initiatives. I still think that has got into the media the past 24 hours. Maybe there is a minority or another more complex coalition. Maybe there is a risk to the economy that may not be as bad as the risk of getting a surprise in a big outright victory. Some would say if you got a big tory victory, eu exit. Maybe those risks are even worse. Could you actually function . The country is not used to it. 4. 5 years more into this coalition, it has technically worked surprisingly well. Maybe it is something one has to do when you get more adult about these things. Germany, Everybody Loves germany. Look how they did a coalition. It obviously stops the most extreme of any dominant party, generally speaking. We are getting breaking news. We had a great exclusive interview saying that the u. S. Must accept a stronger u. S. Dollar. R mr. Aja mr. Rajan. Im surprised. Borrowing in dollars is like russian roulette. Thats more sensible. If theres something behind that, the finance minister is going to do more to open up coming up, isnt it . Just before here, i was speaking to the indian finance minister. I think it is a big moment for them. Theyve traveled on so much positive virtuous momentum with the Oil Price Collapse and the love affair on modi. This budget is big. What he seems to say is the u. S. Have to resign themselves to a stronger u. S. Dollar. Thats for the u. S. Treasury and the fed to decide. As i said earlier your prediction . Ill stick my neck out and say the dollar is not going to be higher than estimated. First rate hike . Linked to this issue . It might be more distant than people think. Part of me thinks it is ridiculous that rates havent already gone up in the u. S. The reason we have them is because inflationary pressures are so low. We have somebody more dovish than bernanke and greenspan. Ok fair point. Jim, thank you so much. Jim oneill, Bloomberg Economist columnist and former Goldman Sachs chief economist. You can find more at our brandnew website, bloomberg. Com. Now to taiwan, where at least 12 people have died after a Trans Asia Airways plane crashed into a river after the domestic flight had taken off from taipei. Dash cam footage played on taiwanese broadcasting showing the out of control plane clipping a bridge before plummeting into a river. For more, lets go to tim in taipei. Hes at the crash site now. What can you tell us . [inaudible] tim . Tim, im so sorry, we are really struggling to hear you. I think the telephone line is very bad. We will try and ill back in to tim culpan on the ground. We woke keep you updated with any breaking news. Unfortunately, we couldnt hear him very well. We will make the technology work. In the meantim