Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20151001 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse October 1, 2015

You are welcome to the pulse live from london. I am manus cranny. Breaking news on the eurozone. The whole of the manufacturing for the eurozone comes in at 52. So that is a pulmonary reading. Tha a preliminary reading. A little bit of a drop for spain. Germany disappointed before he came to air. Dont be fooled. Analysts say it will make it to 1. 20 by early next year. That is the state of play on the eurozone. Manufacturing. Lets talk about one other country it is china. More evidence this morning that chinas stimulus measures may be working. The word is stability. Figures show that manufacturing stabilized in the last month. 5 trillion wiped off the chinese stock markets. Mark . Mark china closed for a week. The chinese stock market, still chinese data continuing to set the tone. Is the chinese economy stabilizing . Yes, the additional gauges below the 50 level but it was above estimates, an improvement on the previous month. Which is leading some to say that those rate cuts in november, the extra Infrastructure Spending has at least stabilize the economy. Thats lifting equities in the region. I had its worst quarter of four years. I thought it would look at the impact on commodities. What about commodities countries, those countries that produce commodities like australia, new zealand, canada . This is the aussie dollar rising for a second day. The aussie is one of the big trading partners of china. This is a courtesy at 9 against the dollar last quarter. Because of the yuan devaluation and because of the prospects of higher u. S. Interest rates. I wanted to show you the price of copper, because copper has been affected by the slow john and china. It is rising today and jumped yesterday after an angloamerican and glencore says it plans to reduce production in chile, the latest and cutbacks following a slowdown in demand in china, which is the biggest user of copper. The bloomberg commodity index, which measures 22 commodities, 15 , theials sank by biggest slide in seven years. I want to show you the nikkei 22 5, yes, china data boosted the nikkei. Gt showed showing slowin sentiments. It may prompt the bank of japan to boost quantitative easing. A majority of economists resurveyed said that will happen at the end of october, which is a year from the last time the boj governor surprised as an added a whole load of q. E. The nikeei rising today. Its all about china. Manus no such thing as coincidences as you well know. The markets. N the imf chief Christine Lagarde is warning that the Global Outlook will only moderately accelerate next year. Speaking in washington last night, she also said that chinas policymakers are facing what she called a very delicate balancing act. Those were her words. They push through economic reform. Christine lagarde china is in the midst of a welcome transpiration, one that has been called for, expected by many. Welcome transformation. It launched Structural Reforms to lift incomes and Living Standards of the chinese population. These reforms will, by design, lead to a new normal of slower, safer, more sustainable growth. Chinas policymakers are facing a very delicate balancing act. They need to implement these difficult reforms, which they have embarked upon with the political determination to stay the course. Same time,he preserving demand and financial stability. Investors were worried about the speed at which chinas economy was slowing. These concerns, the investors concerns, put pressures on Commodity Markets and triggered sizable currency depreciation in of commodity exporters, particularly in latin america. Of course, as it invests less, china is going to purchase less commodities. This will in our view contribute to what could very well be a prolonged period of Commodity Prices that will be lower. Case, you have not gotten the point, china is central to the whole world. Lets bring in a Global Economic st at commerce bank. It is quite substantial. It is china, commodities, the imf. That is are critical worry. When we talk about china, stability in the pmi this morning, two months to the contraction. When will we be sated . The rock has stopped . I think that is a long time away yet. What we are not sure of is what is the speed limit . The east to be 10. It used to be 10. It looks likely that we will go for a couple of years of growth slightly below that. It could take a couple of years before we really noticed how much damage was caused by the property bubble. Festive spirits in the u. S. And the european markets, it can take an awful long time. From past experience in the u. S. And the european markets, it can take a long time. It certainly is one more instruments. I dont think it will be the panacea because i think that the problems home rather than a board. Abroad. If we have a slightly weaker of the options but i think fiscal policy is much more useful at the moment. Manus the great debate is about japan. From the lastr on big dose of quantitative easing. Here we are, facing down the barrel of another recession and ja in japan. Abenomic. Do we need more q. E. You envisage more q. E. And will that reinvigorate the slide in the yen . Peter do i expect it . Yes. Precisely because the japanese have nothing left in their locker. What weve seen over 50 years, japanese q. E. Has not been effective. It may weaken the yen. Big deal. Japanese problems are at home rather than abroad. If you look at gdp growth per head, its actually running at the same level as the United States. Japan is much more deepseated than the numbers imply. Manus our editor wrote a great piece, talking about rate cuts and 600 rate cuts, the most recent being india this week since the financial crisis began. To fiscal policy which will not save us forget is a growth rate above 3. 5 which is where we are looking, according to Christine Lagarde. Worse than 2014. Where will that play out in markets . Peter all countries have some scope with the possible exception of greece. Manus you are not trying to hang yourself on austerity . Peter we are in an environment similar to the 1930s. Fiscal policy was one of the great stimulus that helps the Global Economy recover. Today we are in a different environment. Reducing deficits and debt is all that counts. And Monetary Policy will do the heavy lifting. They are wrong. We need to have more fiscal stimulus in all countries in the world. Not huge amount, but i think we have to be sensible and say, look, we do not have to reduce our debt to gdp ratios. If you have growing growth and low Interest Rates, it is possible. Manus how to to look at the prism of glencore monday, tuesday, wednesday . Im fascinated to know. I look at it from one stock global event, global contagion. It reminded me a great deal of frenetic market activity that we had back in 200 8. Did a channel lehmanesque thoughts for you . Peter fortunately not because glencore is not a systemically important. It is a important factor. We have to get used to global Commodity Prices. Companies and countries which have are suffering. And glencore is a victim of that. Manus great to have your insight. Everybody has their attitude for fiscal policy. Question of whether they have the appetite. Thank you very much. Glencore, lets check in on the stock. The stock has rallied. We are up 6. 5 on the day. This is about an unwinding of that frenzy in the stock price. It is day three of the stock gain that wiped out mondays record loss. Thes jesse, the man on glencore story. Here we go. Volatility takes on a whole new meaning. Weve recouped, ok. So it looks like the market is beginning to reevaluate everything that we were told from an investor theres no equity value left in the stock. What is your thinking as you are waking up this morning and you look at the stock again . Jesse the stepanek, what we had from the 29th percent decline. We heard from the company. We have had a string of notes from analysts have gone into details about the debt position. Before that, there was not a huge amount known about glencores debt position. Blew oute cds which on monday. Manus debt insurance blew out like a balloon. Jesse we saw the bounce and the share price. The copper price is up. Glencore theyre exposed to copper. To have that price going and the right direction will be very important. Ivan is a bit happier than he was on monday. Hich reminds me of course, there is that simon kennedyesque, saying you take price and divide by 180 get the chinese growth. If you look back at bernsteins copper price they are talking about 10,000. Talk to me about trying to, the whole debt discussion was yesterday. The point was this we know they have 30 billion of debt. But the markets seem fundamentally disappointed with the 10 billion proposed reduction, but were beginning to see other things come into play as in terms of commenting that initial proposal. Jesse thats true. They sold 2. 5 billion in shares. A couple weeks ago. The other key component asset sales. Lets see them deliver some of these asset sales. The agricultural business, they are looking at selling a stake there. That could take time. The one that they can get away quickly is the Precious Metals streaming deal. There are a number of players in north america that love these deals. Manus explain to me what a precious metal streaming deal is. A grand technical term but there is an easy example. E glencore will forward sell their gold and silver production from the copper mines. Gold and silver produces a byproduct. They did not care for. Precious metals, glencore. They will sell that production. It comes on the other side of the production. They will sell it to special companies who specialize in world two streams and they will take it on. They could reap 1. 5 billion most people think. Manus a stock for the brave. Thank you for the update. We have john meyer coming down later. We just dont understand. Nor do we appreciate the trading glasenbergat ivan has built. On the pulse this thursday, the head of japans Automobile Manufacturers Association has attacked volkswagen. Honda says the companys actions have damaged the sector and he finds it hard to understand what happened. As many as fitting 11 million vehicles with software to cheat emissions tests. Vw scandal has crossed european carmakers 50 billion. To be goingappears from strength to strength. Its upcoming ipo is 10 times over subscribed. At 11 the company billion. For rory is yesterday in new aims to list york and the second half of this month. Twitter share price spiked on reports that jack dorsey has agreed to stay on as ceo. His says hell make possession permanent after stepping in on an interim basis three months ago. Dorsey will continue to head the Global Payments company. Coming up on the pulse, americas response to russia after airstrike hit syria. The two countries agree on a strategy to deal with the conflict and the threat from terrorism. Welcome back. This is the pulse live on bloomberg tv, radio and streaming on bloomberg. Com, your tablet info. Military talks are being held between russia and the u. S. Following Vladimir Putins decision to launch airstrikes in syria. Russias foreign minister says that the country wants to avoid conflict, but not everyone in the state is convinced. The first instruction to us was to make sure that the military of United States, the Coalition Led by the United States on the one hand and the military of the Russian Federation who are now engaged in operations in syria, at the request of the syrian government, get in touch and establish channels of communications to avoid any unintended incidents. And we agreed that the military should get into contact with the m very soon. Manus of thisthe wreckage administrations middle east policy has now stepped Vladimir Putin. As in ukraine, as elsewhere, he perceives the administrations inaction and caution as weakness and he is taking full advantage. Putins ambitions are obvious, my friends. He wants to prop up assad, play kingmaker, undermine u. S. Policy and operations and ultimately expand russian power in the middle east to a degree as i 1973. Ned unseen since manus bloombergs Ryan Chilcote is here. Of course, president putins decision to strike. What was fascinating was watching the decision being made and then execution of it. It was all done in rocket time. This is not typically what you expect from western action in regards to getting on with bomb campaigns. Ryan critics of pressure would say that is what you can do when you have an autocratic government where one man gets to call the shots and does not have to consult with other parties. It does not get much faster. Had this very quick, stealthy buildup of Russian Forces in syria. Then we had this lightning fast approval from the upper house of the russian parliament, giving the russian president permission formally to bomb, conduct bombing operations in syria. You had Russian Forces giving nato and the United States one hours notice. In one hour, we are going to start bombing. The holes brought the whole prospect of russia engaging in military strikes in syria, destabilize the General Assembly meeting of the united nations. Tomorrow, the russian president is going to sit down with Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and the ukrainian president. Those talks are supposed to be about ukraine. But you know all the journalists are going to want to hear about syria. What is putin planning on doing . You know that is what Angela Merkel andh ollande will want to do. Do you know the last time the Russian Military conducted an airstrike outside of the former soviet union . This is the first time at a quarter century. They have not done it since the collapse of the soviet union. This is history. You have to go back to 1999, the end of the kosovo war when paratroopers to an airfield to secure the airfield. It caught nato and the rest of the world by surprise. What are these russians doing . The russians were upset they had not been given their own zone for patrolling within kosovo. Insignificantt geopolitical incident. This is a bigger deal. The Russian Military is 10 times stronger. And Vladimir Putin isnt Borussia Elton isnt Borussia Elton. Yeltsin. Manus in my the bringing in with a cold and sitting down with obama. But this is a man who was to flexes political and military muscle. Very briefly, other concerns about the potential targets that russia hit yesterday . Ryan yes, theyre ours. Those concerns were there before russia acted and they have been confirmed in many ways. Russia says it was going after Islamic State with his military campaign yesterday. France, the United States safe no, you are going after all of the opponents of assad in syria except for Islamic State. The wall street journal reporting in fact, they hit cia funded militants in syria. Manus i know you will stay on top of the story. Ryan chilcote the latest from syria. In the u. S. Twitter shares a after reports the company is set to appoint cofounder jack dorsey back as the permanent ceo. Can he help resuscitate confidence in the social Media Network . Caroline hyde has been taking a look. Caroline is jack back . Is jack the man who, of course, helped found the company, sent the first ever tweet who was ousted in 2008 and seven years later, will he about to get his steve jobs moment . A man he admires. Who left applen and returned as chief executive to lead it to great things. Re code is saying he will return as permanent chief executive. Interim ceo since june, top of the internal candidate list, we understand. The pressure has been building. Three months more than three months he has been interim chief executive. They need to make a decision. Will it be him, someone else . We saw a record lows in the his stock. Executives were leaving. They need to study the ship. Re code does put some caveats in the headline. Look, their other Key Executives they need to seal the status of first. The head of revenue. Will he become coo . Adam bain . And the cfo . Costolo stood down in july. Will he leave the board . They have three x ceos. Three ex ceos . Will jack dorsey remain the chief executive of square, a mobile Payments Company meant to the ipoing . Can he be chief executive of both . As soon as today we could see jack dorsey put to the home of twitter and the share price likes it. Investors like it. The Share Price Rose 5 . Work. Have a look at the still to be done. Because it is a tough task whoever takes the helm. They are releasing new products. Trying to woo in, build up user engagement. Ecommerce remember that buy button, that could be unveiled to millions of businesses. Big commerce. They are selling tickets to sports games. New product, as his political donation. We could see tweets being more than 140 characters. You would not have to tweak your tweet. We could see a longer version made. Will it engages more . The key issue is engagement. 316 million users. Not a lot compared to facebook. 1. 4 billion. They pale in comparison. We will have to see how they will build this business. Manus jack dorsey back in the top seat. Ok, what could be a bigger trauma for European Equity investors than the greek banking crisis . In a word, glencore. We will tell you why after this very short break. U. K. Manufacturing data crossing the terminal. Following to 51. 5 in the month of september. The estimate was for 51 point three. Manufacturing still growing at a sluggish pa

© 2025 Vimarsana