Science and tech global summit in paris, bringing you the former French Economy minister. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im anna edwards. We have a great three hours lined up for you. Before we begin, a reminder that at ;30 bring you our weekly next . Brexit, whats the europeaneave union and many contributions from francine at the tech conference. Hello tomorrow. Plenty more from her as we go through the day. A look at here we are at the early stage of the european trading day. One hour into trading. Risk onp by 0. 9 , a attitude to markets. The chinese data yesterday was gloomy. Today a different picture. E. M. Markets in asia and into the European Equity session. We see less appetite for the japanese yen. The pound is under pressure hovering around the 1. 22 mark all morning. More tough talk from the e. U. President. No cake, only salt and vinegar. 51. 00 ade up above barrel. Harker says uncertainty stemming from the president ial election may be an argument for delaying a rate increase. He says he is worried about potential policies. Harker did support a rate hike in september. Minister saysirst she will publish a draft independence referendum bill next week. The publication of the bill does not mean an imminent vote. Theresa mayon for fired back saying the question of independence had been settled in 2014. Singapores economy contracted sharply in the third quarter. 4. 1 from the previous three months, a big miss after analysts estimates. Has been under pressure because of weaker trade and lower energy prices. Thailand is beginning a year of worlds longest reigning monarch. The king died yesterday at the age of 88. His son will take the throne. Years, makingfor limited public appearances and spending most of the time in the hospital. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists in 120. Countries. Better data out of china if you like a little bit of inflation. That is the case. This chart shows you the ppi and cpi story. It has been almost five years since you have seen this blue line. This is the ppi, since we have seen that and positive territory. Could that bring more inflation for some of the markets that china exports to . Global story. On the domestic demand situation, there is lots to talk about with regards to what this tells you about the china story. Would speak to enda curran from hong kong. Talk us through the latest data we have on china. Enda good morning. This is quite a result for them today. Moving in thes right direction but it got into positive territory quicker than expected. For Company Profits and also good for Company Servicing debt. Also reflects some success on the supplyside reforms story. The government have been talking about shutting down mines and and they are doing so. There is a lot more work to be done if this move into positive territory is to be sustained, they will have to tackle much steel. Nier areas such as it will be much harder than the coal sector. We are heading to a very important Political Year in china next year. There is no guarantee that this will be sustainable without further painful reforms. Perhaps we seem some businesses being put together as well. That is another fashionable thing to be doing in china right now. We have another story that china itslanning a mega merger in chemical sector. What do we know about that deal . Enda we are seeing some gradual reforms happening. We know that this is a priority of the government. Today, our colleagues have reported on this, potential major merger in the chemical sector. I think analyst way to see in terms of the devil in the detail. Will a merger such as this allow room for private competition, will it allow room for foreign competitors . Management of these companies be taken away from the Party Central control system . The indications are that are minimal so far. All indications are that the government is talking about strengthening their grip. Bit, butform, bit by there is a long way to go before we have a shakeup of the state owned sector in china. Anna thank you very much, joining us with the latest on china. Lets turn our focus United States. Janet yellen as a keynote speaker at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve bank in boston. Lets bring in my guest. Brenton brown, chief economist at mitsubishi usj securities. I know you are preoccupied by the politics that relates to the markets. You talked about how populism is uel. F you see a link between what we andseeing from the fed Monetary Policy and what that is done to the distribution of assets across america and the rise of populism. Interested to see where that populism is finding its roots in the spectrum of u. S. Politics. Very much the wealth gains generated by the q. E. And Monetary Policy, together with productivity and investment spending, outcome, which means low standard of living containing, that has been a powerful cocktail for producing populism as weve seen with the trump and Bernie Sanders phenomena. May at the moment, trump have gained support from that particular development and the link to the fed, but its not doing them any good in the pool. Clinton gaining on trump. Thes the market view of election as we stand right now . What does a clinton win due to the dollar . Brendan the key is not a clinton win, but what is going to happen to the house and senate. If we see the republicans losing their majority in the senate and also in the house, then we really are looking at a quite unrestricted clinton administration. In terms of the fed, that outco me means virtually no prospect of any reform. All we have been hearing over the last few years, republicans pushing for fed reform, all of that we can dismiss altogether. You wouldve thought the reaction of markets to that, the idea there was going to be a Clinton Presidency able to nesians wouldhe keyn be a negative prospect for the dollar. But we are not seeing that. Markets are focusing on a december rate hike. But, of course, we are looking at Historic Events in the United States the collapse of the republican party. T shortterm position taken, how vulnerable is that december call, expectation of a rate hike . Brendan i do not think is vulnerable to data. Data has a lot of white noise. Weve a situation in a rate hike would not take place, if you have a market crash between now and that time. Fpom caon the bloomberg we can zoom in, the chart of the financial condition. How tight tdo you see policy getting, how tight is policy already because of what we have seen in the United States in the dollar . Describe in any conventional sense financial conditions and United States and even if oney easy, looks is that a few counters to that. Thats fairly technical. Overall, the financial conditions are very easy. Remains asstion mark always, where are we and what Milton Friedman describes as the point of no return . We had very frothy asset markets going on for a long time. We have reached the point where fed action to bring back Financial Stability does risk catapulting us into this financial crash or cooldown. And we may be at that point of no return. Anna do you think we are heading to the u. S. Recession . Specifically of clinton was elected. Not going to be a direct result of the election, but the big unknown, the catalyst into any recession will be pullback in asset markets. Anna thank you very much. Brandon brown, the chief economist at mitsubishi stays with us. We will bring you live coverage of Janet Yellens speech in boston. At 6 30 p. M. London time. Stay with surveillance. Plenty coming up, including the view from france. We speak to the former economy minister about brexit. Francine is live in paris. Hard brexit or no brexit, take your pick. The stark warning from the e. U. President. In our brexit show, we will have the latest news on the u. K. s european exit and will speak to the ceo of loreal. This is bloomberg. The best prospect of those in being able to do that is if we get fed normalization. Anna what about the euro and how it performs from here . I read ubs was saying that the euro would rally on the taper talk. We ran this story some weeks ago suggesting that when the time comes to end the Bond Buying Program that will be some tapering. Do you think that thats what he would like to do . Brendan i think that tapering is what draghi would like to do. I do not see that being a big story for euro. The only situation is where the dollar would be strong anyhow. It is not an independent story. We have toh more focus on the german political in europe,e risks particularly the italian elections that will be close to thoughts and december. That is a risk one has to look at very carefully. Ed always says it has nothing to do with politics. Independence. Brendan i think we have seen to seeof the draghi ecb that italy focuses in on his thinking in every way. The italian referendum coming in the shortterm, is the focus for the ecb. You for your thoughts. Brendan brown, the chief economist at mitsubishi securities. Up next, francine speaks to Emmanuel Macron. This is bloomberg. s anna lets get to Francine Lacqua in paris with a special guest. Francine im very pleased to welcome to the program, Emmanuel Macron, the former french theomy minister and now head of political party. What have you learned since you left office and started this movement . Im happy to be with you. I have spent a lot of time on the ground on the country and we launched a new initiative thousands of people, we get to see and listen to french people during weeks and weeks to understand the Critical Issues and problems in order to build a program. Not to push new propositions but to listen to the people first. Why . Thes the gap you have, encreasing gap youu hav between people and politicians. When you look at the brexit and the American Campaign there is a feeling of politicians yes, n o more propose anything is a solution to daytoday life and to people. So, what im trying to do is to build two things. First, a vision and to build a common vision with the people of my movement to say, what is our position for europe . Innovation. Open society. I think a leader has to provide a clear vision. Im to listen to people about daytoday life, what about the expectation, and what about the ideas about solutions . For me, if we want to politics today, you have to mix both of them, vision and pragmatism and open innovation with people. Find a middle of the roadway to make politics in france and e urope and was to speak about bureaucratic stuff absolutely without any relation with daytoday life of people. Francine give me something concrete. If you were in charge today, what was the one thing you would change straightaway . For me, and we are building a program, so i do not want to disclose everything right now, first, you have to reshape the socioeconomic model to provide much more, to be much more innovation friendly and provide individual security. Want tocretely, what i promote is a society where e individual rights for training, for health care and so on. And not right basicallys that are monitored by large structures and much more flexibility on the ground. Rules to be negotiated and no more by law, because it is too rigid. More individual protections for people. So, thats a winwin deal i will propose. For real estate and housing, what i will propose is not a huge policy at the National Level but to say we have 15, 16 we perfectly note where you very Ambitious Program to provide housing, especially in the critical cities. So, we will completely change the rights, accelerate the timeframe for this program to reluaunch a new Housing Program for the middle class. Say,kind of very, i would very pragmatic stuff in order to make more economy and provide protection. I do believe that a lot of people and citizens have a role to play. What i want to build is not just government andhe a program for politicians, but it is also program for citizens. Because you have francine is the program that you want to become president of the republic of france . Its too early because i do not want to create that as a show. If we are in a situation, we do not expect anything. What i want to do now is to build a vision, to finalize that form, to gather people. Today, i have 88,000 members in my party. Im neck and neck with the socialist party. Im brandnew, seven months old. Francine when will you decide if you are running or not . I think the critical question will be decided by december or january. Francine can folks get back jobs because of brexit . I do believe that. I do believe that france has a be much more tractive today for people, for business by simple find a lot of laws, by streamlining the organization and brexit could be a possibility for france. It depends on two things. First, our ability to provide a very attractive package. Actual compliance to commitment. And second, we have to monitor the brexit. Im extremely attached to i d o respect the british vote. I do respect the agenda defined by the british Prime Minister but at the same time, the worst thing would be to have a sort of weakmean, weak europe and european union. Francine when you say strict approach, that means if they do not give anything on immigration, if they take control of immigration, and means they will lose single access to Single Market . Its impossible to have the best of the two worlds. Francine they are either in or out. Thef you want to be part of Single Market, you have to contribute to the budget. Access to the Single Market as a passport, you can have this sort of new organization. Do you want just a trade relationship . Ok, so it will be Something Like canada. Do you want Something Like switzerland . They contribute to the european budget. We have to fdefine together. I dont want a stalemate approach where the brits will have the best of the two worlds. Otherwise it will be a big incentive for the other members of the club to leave or to kill the european idea. Because the european idea is based on common responsibility and solidarity. For me, that is a critical point when you speak about immigration. Everybody has to contribute. It is impossible to leave the burden to some members. We have to organize it in an appropriate approach dealt by the commission but everybody has to take its own part of the burden. That is part of the e. U. Francine do you think that europe will become smaller and for five years . The e. U. . My approach is slightly different. What i propose to say, we need to restore two things with a e. U. Democracy and 70. The and sovereignty. When you speak about energy and defense and security and so on. He, sovereignty is not about t National Level. That is the big mistake by the brexit. Second, democracy. It is impossible to go the next step forward for the e. U. Jets with a member of the club and just with the leaders. Just with a member of the club. This system is completely rotten. Proposes to say during 68 months, lets organize democracy debates in the 27 countries, organized by a small team. Francine referendums . Not a referendum. Referendum is just yes or no. People are more sophisticated than that. Which kind of europe do you want . As a citizen, i want to participate in the debate. I do not want to be submitted for europe and say the end of the day, yes or no. No, i want to vote not the popular vote. Something we will organize. You can make it partly with the digital. But people have their own view on that. They have their own solution. They are able to say, i am not just for o r against europe. Im for more europe in this field. I want to say to you, europe is not the appropriate answer in my daily life for that. S organize a National Debate during 68 months just to have a strategic document for, be submitteds to to the convention at the european level to say, ok, are we ready to move forward in this direction . 1012 pages. Francine to reform, basically . Tofor me, beauty to say, how you need to say how to deliver on security and energy and digitally and how to do much more to have an actual tax and social convergence within the eurozone. Because i think that is critical. Are are you ready to create a eurozone budget, to have solidarity and responsibility . Francine and you think that the response of the more integration and not less integration . I think everyone would concur to say we need more integration. We need at least a new political vision because today there is a lack of political vision. On the basis of this document, thats have a common political endorsement. Lets go to the referendum in the 27 countries with a new method, which is to say, if you thea vote at 65 in country, we move for. If you vote no, you do not move ford but you do not block the other members. Thing he craziest and france did it 10 years ago and netherlands did it 10 years ago we blocks the others. Those who wanted to move forward. Today we are completely captured by the brexit vote. Thats crazy because our system today as captured by those about your. What i want to do is have a much more democratic approach, a much more political approach to say we need more strategy, and a much more proactive approach to say, ok, you want to be part of this new club, go ahead. We dont block you. Francine thank you for joining us on bloomberg tv. We will have plenty more throughout the day. The ceo of loreal. Later on. Love you,ont interesting words to end on. With Emmanuel Macron in paris. Our weekly brexit show. Im anna edwards. Every friday we round up the conversations that will make you know what is next for britain and for europe. Next . Brexit, whats for roundup of the stories that matter the most, lets go to sebastian. Tusk has donald warned that divorce will be painful for britain. Britain is set to lose the benefits of being a member of the Single