Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20160630 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss June 30, 2016

Are going to get loosening of Monetary Policy from the central bank of england. Markets are not as worried about brexit. S p up 2. 5 . Stocks imagining more than one . Pretty extraordinary twoday rally. We got answers to those questions today. Carney said he was getting ready to loosen Monetary Policy and broaden the boundaries it uses to determine what debt it could buy. That really helped the market to take another leg up at the end of the day both here and there. In terms of bonds, you are looking at the puerto rican bond index . Yes, the latest surge helped by the signing of that puerto rico legislation. Certainty coming on that front and look at bonds over this first half of the year. These are yields on 10year, yields plunging everywhere. The market story of the year so far. One of the storieof the year in banking has been Deutsche Bank getting crushed and continuing to disappoint investors, today, down another 2 2 23. There have been a lot of concerns about this bank from its leadership down to continued arrests and investigations into various employees. Deutsche bank getting crushed today. Ok at the ftse up 5. 2 obviously in part helped by mark carney but that was at the very end of trading and he didnt start speaking until 4 00 today. But see the leg up after the market took whellsing it was going to get more help and that was when investors that they were going to lose Monetary Policy. Look at the chinese currency over night. This is the british pound. This is up we are going back to china. Weakest level that it was prepared to allow more depreciation. They declined to comment on this report. There was a brief blip in the morning. But a lot of people focusing on 6. 8 per dollar is a level. Now lets get to the pound and the british pound was up versus the dollar so far this year. Then the bottom fell out and you had that record twoday plunge and trading at a 30year low against the u. S. Dollars. Trend. St quarterly newp planting data, farmers planting the most corn since world war ii. See it on the chart when that data came out. One of the most interesting movers of the day. Lets look what the commodities in the first half of the year. Green arrows, this was a good move. The bloomberg commodity index, natural gas up and crude up 26 and flirting with that area for a while. The dollar kind hasnt changed during that period. Shows the commodities. How about soy beans. They were ripping face today. Is that a technical term. Means more than 2 1 2 standard deviation move. Lets take a deep dive into the bloomberg and follow the charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. The brazilian currency has weakened versus the dollars. And brexit has pushed rate hike expectations off into the distance and people using the dollar. If you were to buy the dollars, that has returned more than 13 , 13. 5 so far. That is the most among 34 currencies and we know the central bank of brazil said there is no room to cut Interest Rates and the fed is no hurry to cut rates. Not ok at the big gainers, the currency you would have expected. Im looking at the relationship between the pound and snap 500. And i have looked at this chart a lot, for a long time, the two charts have tracked each other well that Global Markets have paid so much attention to what has been happening in the u. K. This goes back to june 13. We have seen the last couple of dayses there has been a divergence but hone in at what happened at 11 00, that red line. We saw stocks spike and the pound dive and carney came out and said there would be more easing. The pound like it, because more easing, the more easing and saw a divergence between the two. Will it last . Thats the big question. I want to switch to mmodities, and i think of it as a great proxy of what could happen. Doesnt mean that. This chart is 1864 and copper coming up for the second day. Copper hasnt done incredibly well. The threemonth contract is up only 3 compared to massive gangs for gold, silver and latinum but better gains for a lum number. Copper, i wonder if this move is because of optimism, maybe this is also a move in reaction so more lum loosening of monitor policy and other central banks. See all those charts and more on twitter. Bloomberg columnist Michael Regan joins us. Doesnt it feel like a friday . Feels like an incredible week. Is the brexit trade over . Im mostly struck as you said the story of the year is the ever declining yields whether it be a safe haven trade. If you look at the main movers in the stock markets, say, utilities, telecom, Consumer Staples, getting reports of the hershey takeover attempt but defense groups not today and going all the way back to last may, your bondlike stocks and a lot of these groups had records. But Real Estate Investment trust in the s p reaching a record, utility sector reaching a record and Consumer Staples reaching a record and the valuations close to alltime highs if not there already. So it has been its a riskon rally, but the least risky stocks in these groups. Joe michael, i was talking to an investor friend of mine and the drop and then the rally is that kind of shook out the weaker players and brought basic Resources Stocks up. If you look at the year to date of the stocks 600, basic Resources Stock are big winners this year to date, up 18 . And a lot of that came on monday and friday. Do you see finally individual groups moving around a lot more than sort of rising tide lifting all boats . The Energy Sector and the material sector would be the exception. Energy and snap 500 is a close to 100, so really a lot of faith that oil will stabilize, but that is a dangerous number. But yeah, i mean, it goes back to earnings and looking at least the second quarter, there is not a lot of bright spots there. There is really no doubledigit growth in any of the sectors i could find. Most sectors expected to report, decreases in earnings. So its possible we could have a flat that up earning season and will that be enough to really get people back into the record. But obviously, they are in a good mood. One group that has done badly are the financials. You have the prospect of another Interest Rate increase pushed off into the future and talk of an Interest Rate cut. I look at the threemonth, fiveyear and the very shortterm to about five years and just flattened out. The two year and 10year curve was at the lowest. Perked up a little bit but not moving too much off of the low and you know, banks obviously they got through the stress tests. We had a flurry of capital announcements, buy backs, enough to give a bit of a boost and all the groops still taking a leadership role. Thats hardly a decided boost, one of conviction. The other thing you noted was apple was the biggest drag on the snap, not only for this month and the quarter. The Biggest Company out there and just total drag on the market. Six points taken off of the snap 500 more than bank of america and microsoft. Still, again, a rebound in apple would increase incentive. Michael regan, thanks for joining us. What european leaders want from the brexit negotiations when they actually occur. Turkey has made more than a dozen arrests in the airport suicide bombing attack. Turkish state media say 13 suspects have been dwained and three of them are described as foreign nationals, they blame Islamic State which killed 44 people at the airport in stanbul. Ive ell tower will be lit in flag. Ors of the turkish it was delayed 24 hours. The image of the turkish flag has been projected on several world sites including berlin and amsterdams royal palace. Mike lee says he cant endorse donald trump. He accused my best friends father to kill j. F. K. Lee said he is concerned that trumps plan to restrict muslims into the u. S. Amounts to religious intolerance. In japan, a new survey says the average monthly allowance is 370, the third lowest in three decades. In japan, pocket money is doled out by wives that control family budgets. They are trying to revive and reinflate the economy. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Back to you in london. Whatd you miss, germany or france is more influential in the negotiations. A columnist writes that brexit hopes that overeager arms is a spanking for the u. K. Worried about a nationalist victory in forth coming negotiations. The talks may turn nasty and unproductive. Oining us there from london is nina. The Political Leadership is in at that timers and going to be difficulties figuring what the voice is going into these negotiations. Tell us about the european side, what will the european objective look like and what might shape their approach . Well, its already very clear even though there are divides amongst the e. U. Leaders that the tradeoff in this negotiation is Single Market access in exchange for Free Movement of people. This is difficult, because if you know how the lead campaign was run in the u. K. , it was done so on the promise that leaving the e. U. Would mean that immigration would come down significantly. This will impact certain factors, particularly the Financial Services factor and how the clearinghouses are going move to the euro zone and lets not forget what happened in greece. When it comes to the e. U. And put france and germany against each other, ultimately, they are going to stick together because it is important for the e. U. To stick together in these negotiations. Togeorge soros gave a speech the European Parliament and got a lot of attention about what he said for Financial Markets and merkels migration policy and said her initiative was not well thought through and ignored the pole factor. Public opinion turned against her. That is when she struck her deal. How much does merkel how much blame should go to merkel for not dealing more proactively with some of the underlying issues that are causing angst yites . The whole migration crisis played a huge part, a massive part, even though the u. K. Part has a policy and didnt have to take any of the refugees that were flooding into europe. It made look the e. U. Like a dodgey prospect. And in terms of merkels relations with the other e. U. Member states, they were extremely tense, more tense than any time i have seen and domestically merkel has lost support as well. Shes still strong and has over 50 Approval Rating in germany and likely she still will be a the german chancellor and she will be an open negotiator. Its still not clear and we dont have a government yet and dont know what the u. K. s negotiating position is going to be and what kind of model theyll seek from the e. U. Well have to wait and see what they say. There are so many things that need to be sorted out. Do you see any situation in which the brexit could bring Continental Europe together rather than the deeper fragmentation that is taking place . There is a lot of rhetoric of how to make europe stronger. It is a difficult proposition because there are flaws in the euro zone and how berlin and paris want to tackle that. This is a huge blow to the e. U. Liberal allies that they had feel isolated and dont like the fact they are left with germany and france and germany and france think so differently as to how the e. U. And euro zone should proceed. Its going to make things very awkward. One of the things i noticed when i talk to european commissioners in brussels, they seem to have this plan to create a federal union to really solid file the european union, but they dont want to talk about it or go public with it because it is so unpopular amongst the voters. This has been the pob with the e. U. And the euro zone. This has been a half baked project. Germany has to decide. Is it going to be a transfer union and assume the debt of countries like greece or not. I dont see this impact becoming any easier. That presented at least you know a Strong Partner for a more flexible e. U. Where the Single Market was the joining force and those countries dont join could stay outside, very interesting to see when the british commissioner resigned, Financial Services brief was given to the commissioner in charge of the euro. The u. K. Outside and e. U. Would rally around the euro without a clear plan as to how its going to work. We heard from french president hollande he would like to see paris take some of that business out of london. What do you see the prospects of it to move towards european cities and do they have a chance of stealing some of that business . We are jumping the gun because we dont know what the deal is going to be and negotiators are going to go in once the e. U. Formed its team, getting trade negotiators with new zealand, canada and u. S. , they will go in hard for Market Access specifically for Financial Services. What we do know the euro clearing business might clear out to frankfurt or paris. Thats going to move. But we still dont know exactly how this is going to affect the markets and Financial Services. First of all, in order for these negotiations to be triggered, article 50 needs to be triggered, that is the exit clause from the e. U. And enter a twoyear negotiating period and a lot can happen in that time. Dont jump the gun just yet. It has been a real pleasure. Canadas g. D. P. Get a bruise. We have a chart that you cant miss. Whatd you miss canadas hockey blue. Hockey and charts. No Canadian Team made the playoff and that shows up in the. D. P. Data and arts fell 4 in april. February of 2014 when the sochi olympics interrupted and before that, the nhl lockout and adding salt to the wound for hockey fans in canada, it was traded to natchville. That chart looks like an american would have come up with a joke. And its funny that it actually does show up. Im looking at the canadian g. D. P. Its like 75. Its part. Im looking at the twoyear yield spread between spain and germany and the reason this is important there has been a little bit of rising anxiety about postbrexit and people were worried we might see it in spain and after we had that election on sunday, but a pretty 0. 7 ove this past from to. 46. There hasnt been that expansion of the spread this week thanks to the election and the fact and this is one area that hasnt shown up. If the election had gone the other way. If the radical left had done much better, i imagine the spread would have gone wider. Our next guest says donald trump and the president ial election has the potential to be a Lehman Brothers moment. What doesnt . This is bloomberg. , mark i am mark crumpton, lets get the first word news. The United States has moved piland from its Human Trafficking list, although it is still widespread. The state department may be assessment in its annual trafficking and persons report released by the secretary of state, john kerry, who examine of governments in fighting modernday slavery. Chris christie vetted as a possible running mate for donald trump. That is based on reports from multiple media outlets. Race to theed his white house, he was an early supporter of trumps. 12 preferred another candidate, 5 were undecided to read in a similar poll last week, mrs. Clinton the lead mr. Trump by five points. The secretary of Homeland Security says americans should expect tighter security, especially if the nations airports as they travel for the fourth of july holiday weekend. Johnson says tsa, state, and local enforcement will increase their efforts. That is after the deadly suicide bombing at turkeys ataturk airport in istanbul. Major airports in the u. S. Are beefing up security. Day,l news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. We have breaking news on tesla, they are their shares are lower in afterhours trading. The tesla model f. Vehicleg to tesla, the was on a divided highway when the autopilot engaged, perpendicular to them model s. The driver did not notice the tractortrailer, so the break was not applied. As a result, there is a fatality. First known fatality where autopilot was activated. 2. 5 ases are about they open up an evaluation on the tesla model. This is not something tesla takes lightly. No, definitely not something they take lightly. But, the first fatality in the tesla where and autopilot was activated in 130 miles area that million fore in 94 u. S. Autopilot activated cars, million worldwide. Administration will open an investigation into the design and performance of their autopilot system. This,re informing us of and the stock is down in the postmarket. We will continue to monitor any headlights. Scarlet this year has the potential to be a political event, in particular, when it comes to donald trump. Columnist wrote a few months ago that a trump nomination and election represents the system failing. Their entitlement, proimmigration trade would be threatened by a trump win. Conor joins us from atlanta. Vote, despitet the fact the markets are must much more calm about, can you explain that . Was the year of unexpected failures. It looks like the entire u. K. Government was a weak institution. And you can argue that the Republican Party has become a weak institution, and donald trump took advantage of that. What ifit is more about the entire Republican Party collapses after the donald trump blowout . That is the bigger risk to think about. Joe do you think markets are prepared for this . Here in london we saw a lot of hedging on the downside, looks like markets were ready. The u. S. G drops, is market hedging the same way . I do not think so. It took until the final week or two. People are still in the mindset of some of is looking like the ast two elections, so it is status quo moment. Whether donald trump can come either the polls, scenario is worth thinkin

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