Washington. The former Chicago Bulls player scottie pippen. Mr. Obamass election day game was in 2008. Toy four hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. His bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u. S. Live, i am scarlet fu. Joe i am joe weisenthal. Climbing. Earlier losses as holes open with the u. S. President ial race. Joe the question is what did you miss . Matt heading to the polls in one of the most volatile campaigns in u. S. History, will the u. S. Elect Hillary Clinton, the nations first female commander in chief, or will it choose a billionaire businessman, donald trump, for the 45th resident . , Hillary Clinton led donald trump in a dramatic and often vicious campaign. Florida among the first to close. Alaska is the last day at 1 00 a. M. We will show you what to look for and when. There is more to the election than meets the eye. The senate is up for grabs after the republicans took control for the first time in 2007. We will look at the key races to watch. Scarlet as we head toward the close and election night, lets look at where markets stand with less than 30 minutes to go. Julie hyman is standing by. We see the rally led by technology, we see it in the upper corner, the nasdaq is the best performing of the nasdaq right now. Of 1 . Than half what is interesting is in the getting thectual poll numbers, getting the election results, a lot of tension attention is paid to a new monitor developed that looks at some of the early turnout results in the getting s states. Traders have been pouring over those numbers and reacting to them as the day goes on. We have got the end and swiss franc falling against the u. S. Dollar and the new Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar rising against it. A mixed picture there, crude is back lower bound and around quite a bit today. Rates are broadly higher as the selling in the treasury market. Another thing i have been , a broad basket bank of market Merrill Lynch index, treasury volatility, all of this came down after spiking in recent weeks. We still have individual company news to talk about as well. Priceline is at a record after that beat estimates. Earnings losers whose losses earlier were about double what they are now. The company came out with Valeant Pharmaceuticals after its earnings and forecast. That Company Earnings missed estimates. On the flipside, we have got gains today in consumer staples. Food stocks specifically after boomer news learned that 3d 3g capital is one of the investors in that looking to 5 billion in a new fund to this is reported by the brazil journal and all of the company that have potential targets rising todaysession. Scarlet thank you so much. Joe the u. S. Election is serving as a litmus test for discussions about whether global civilization is reversed. What if it is not about a retreat at all . Eraaps were entering a new of recalibration purity, set the university of california burke, nowas also he joins us from california. I really appreciate you joining us. Talking about trade, so much talk about globalization. We are already seeing a world trade slowdown, even before any sort of new policy is in effect. What do you attribute that to and what dcs the future trajectory of trading in the nations . Creating an international it grew much more quickly. It was driven by the chinese growth and development of mobile and all that you the process is over and similarly, we have an exclusive growth of public order capital flows because of financial regulation. Financial crisis, deregulation especially as it affects banking. I think the age of hyper globalization. I do not think if you look carefully at the history, you think about the fact that there are a lot of Companies Invested in Global Supply chains, a lot of Companies Invested in export, i think the status quo can persist for a long time were trade and global output rise in will no longer be the case that trade will grow quickly but it can rise together. That is how it looks from an economic point of view. Politically, it may be problematic. I think a threat to the globalization is on the political side and not the economic side strictly speaking. Mark manufactured matt manufacturing jobs have been decimated but that is because of technology and growth around the world outside of the u. S. What has been the impact of nafta . Been on balance a negative for the u. S. Economy . Not for the u. S. Economy but for manufacturing employment. Employment has shifted in services. It has shifted into high tech. It has shifted nafta has made a difference for that dynamic. China in my view has made a bigger difference. Mexico, China Population wise and export wise, is the largest economy in the world. I think trade has mattered for the relative decline of manufacturing in the United States. Technology has probably made more of a difference and that fact points us to what will have next. People talk about rolling back nafta and no one talks about abolishing Technological Progress robots. Technological progress is here to stay. Joe the. The time of globalization has seen a big explosion in the finance industry. There are obvious links, our trade finance is important to banks, derivatives hedging business whenant companies are engaging in trade across borders. If we start to deep d globalize, what is the prospect for the world banks as the becomes less activity . If we continue to clamp down on capital flows, that could have a negative impact on trade. It in an unwise fashion. The smartest thing to do would money flows have not connected with trade. Throughrs claim down that arebank market mainly what commentators refer to as hot money flows while trying to protect, maintain at the same time. That would be a happy outcome if we could achieve it. Scarlet, i wanted to ask about whether the democratic side or the republican side, lied to the estimate of the appeal of globalization and underestimated deal of nationalism . I think what the elites have failed to communicate is that openness and free trade do not all votes. Ly erase there are winners and losers. The winners are left behind affair not helped or compensated with the training they need to compete in a globalized economy. They will understandably grow resent old. Many policymakers, starting with proponents in europe, the transpacific partnership, have acknowledged not there are losers as well as need to do some before the losers. Matt are you optimistic the message has come across and for the outcome of the election tonight . The politically correct answer is im hopeful. Ways justwo forward. One is protectionism. Building a wall and clamping down on trade. Is providing trading training so they can compete for the global economy. Thatay i framed it is decimated preclear. Joe we want you to stay with us and get your thoughts on brexit and some analogies that may or may not be relevant here. Joe matt i want to look at americans casting their ballots as americans vote for a 45th president. Will it be Hillary Clinton or donald trump and more portly, what will the winner do with the victory . This is bloomberg. Matt were back with gary. You say a brexit vote will prove disastrous for the u. K. But small potatoes for the eu are you not worried about contagion as we see white rightwing populism sprouting up orcountries like germany countries like italy where it has also been problematic . I think we should worry about rightwing populist parties across europe but i do not think they are being encouraged by brexit. We are about to see about to see a major recession in the u. K. Which will illustrate the cost of exiting for the european union. There is plenty to worry about but i do not think it will take the same form. Matt everyone tried austerity and that was dreadful. We have not had anyone promise real old stimulus. Even Hillary Clinton economic plan does not look like a Million Dollars for infrastructure they desperately need. Whats to say they will go the other way . I do not think they will go the other way. A lot of talk about stimulus. There will be a little action in various companies. Circumstances, to shift away from monetary stimulus, and do a couple of 100 middle side stimulus would be a appropriate for circumstances. Scarlet i know you came back from a brexit conference and that has not resulted in the horrible Economic Data that people have feared would occur. Expectedetter than read on the economy removes some of the urgencies linked to fiscal spending that people seem to be on course for providing . I didnt think so. I think the house of commons in the bank of england all appreciate a major recession. What has held the economy up is inflation on the horizon because the pound has collapsed. That has made for a relatively Strong Economy and a weaker economy Going Forward. Joe there are a lot of issues beyond just the economy and trade and stuff like that. Hisrump were to win and agenda were to be enacted, and that would presumably mean tax spending,astructure repatriation of foreign cash, obviously, the antagonism for current trade outlook, what with that due to the current economy . Would significantly heightened uncertainty, that is the obvious effect. Do not likestors uncertainty. I think the negative effects of uncertainty on the market with an would dominate any positive effect of stimulus. I would say the same thing about the dollar. Stimulus withcal the. Positive. I think the main effect would be heightened uncertainty, which would be dollar negative. Matt joe would let was lucky to have lunch today. He was probably talking about how we need to see real inflation here before we raise Interest Rates next year. Do you think we will see a path to normalization or will the doves when out on this one . I think there are sound economic arguments of the sort for waiting and seeing plus 2 inflation. There is intense political pressure to do you now. It is a tugofwar between economics and politics. We have seen it before. You can guess which wins in the end. That thank you for joining us. From the university of california berkeley. We are about two hours away from the close in indiana. Follow all of the electoral votes throughout the day with a two hour special. Eastern for special election coverage with david. Ura and megan murphy it is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Scarlet lets look at the most important states and when we might see the election called. Ike mckee joins us now the polls are open until 9 00 p. M. Cares about new york because we already awarded those electoral votes to Hillary Clinton. The real question is can she rack up enough victories early in the night in the east coast to make it possible in four donald trump to win. It may not be when we call the race but everyone will know it is over. You can pretty much bet it is over issuance florida and unless trump pulls some kind of upset in the midwest. There does not seem to be a reason for the polls to go his way. At that point, the map breaks down. If it turns blue, to Hillary Clinton easy when. The last president to be elected basically by the east coast was bill clinton in 1992 and they were able to call that early. Fun, a lot of people were tweeting out some kind of internet tool. Joe had some a slightly different take on it. He had ohio for clinton but North Carolina for trump. What does ohio look like great now . All of the states are so close within the margin of error. You know, if you gave it to nate silver at five 538, he would say it is still possible. He went from ohio to blue and yesterday, he had it read. I think that is right, he takes that into account. I noticed you had nevada blue. If he gets nevada, he does not need new hampshire. I was thinking back to 2000 and we all remember florida. All the other states, you remember bush got 271. New hampshire, iowa, nevada, iowa. Had any of those been for gore, then bush would not have one. It really speaks to, you think thats to that time, how little it takes. A lot of people hate the electoral college. Only the popular vote, then you have the candidate go from new york to california and you will not see them go anywhere else. Siteet what is the swing swing state youre looking at it used to be ohio . It is not the bellwether state. Consecutiveright 14 times but other states have tied the record. Missouri was right 13 consecutive times in a row as well. Then there are like five states that have been right 14 times in states, nevada and new hampshire, who have been right 16 times in a row. Those of us from ohio call it the bellwether state. You look at nevada, 16 times in a row, they were wrong when noty carter lost, they did vote in 1976, it was. 2 percentage points. Nine races since then, they have been right. 25 of the last 26, nevada. Unfortunately, well have to stay up later until they close for a decision. 70 of the states registered population has already voted. The real question is could donald trump get a big enough turnout from the republicans, a leave from Hillary Clinton, we assume she has from democrats have already voted. Matt he tweeted what was even cooler. 18 in florida has 29 and maybe that is reversed. Even if those go read and not blue, it is still not enough. It will be difficult for chump to pull it off. Yes. If he does not win at least one of these east coast battleground states early, it will be very hard for him to do anything. That is why he spent a lot of time in North Carolina and florida and even try for pennsylvania though it does not seem out of reach. I noticed on joes map, you went already in nebraska. That is the one where i gave one electoral vote for Hillary Clinton in the second Congressional District there. A strong democrat with a get out the vote operation. There you go. All right. Michael mckee, thank you for the breakdown. We are looking at backtoback games for the s p 500 after nine straight losses. The s p up by one third 1 . Dow industrials adding 68 points at the moment. Are looking ahead to election coverage can 5 00 p. M. , a twohour special and after that, 7 00 p. M. , david and megan will host the election coverage in six hours. You do not want to miss that. This is bloomberg. We are moments away from the closing bell. Election day is upon us. The secondhighest in a broad rally. They prepared some of their gains. I am scarlet fu. Matt we want to welcome our viewers. You can watch closing bell coverage every weekday from 4 00 to 5 00 p. M. Eastern. Scarlet we begin with our market mednet market minute. Overall youre looking at equities with all s p 500 groups gaining. Energy looks red right now. The others are gaining. Whats interesting is we have such a positive day for the groups. Almost all of the earnings news is disastrous. It is not the earnings today. I guess not. At one point. 50 you had valiant getting crushed. 12 or 16 . Cbs is down. These companies their forecasts. Raised itsonly that forecast, only a mild gain. Carnage in the markets as far as individual names but the groups are moving up. Lets start with a look at 10 year yields in the u. S. , rising today. People go into equities and selloff their treasuries. , lets the 10 year yield below that chart out a little longer. The highest level in a month. It has been bouncing a lot. We have a pretty clear idea. I think the outlook for treasuries is less ambiguous. Scarlet there are some structural issues Going Forward no matter who is elected. Lets look at currencies. It has weakened against its peers. Gap higher. Dollar yen. Demand for the and other trade we looked at is the mexican peso. It is that a twomonth high. The wild ride is not over. A Trump Victory could push the pain so to weaken from its 18. 43. Going torump wins its be the wildest moves with ever seen. Scarlet we can make that statement. Commodities. Ok at some big rallies in the industrial metals. Copper up, they have been surging lately. Up nearly 4. 5 . Gold selling off. Gold, which had been tracking the election pretty closely. Scarlet absolutely. Lets take a deep dive down into the bloomberg. Matt i have one from dave wilson. See dave wilsons charts i look at all the time. He has one from him km that shows the fed has taken more money or reduce the Monetary Base held at the fed by the most sense the 1920s. We have the massive spike up during the financial crisis when the fed boosted its balance trillion. Lmost 5 now it is going the other direction. Base reduce the monetary by this much this quickly is going to make it hard for us to get to that inflation target they want to heads. They are at 1. 7 . Difficultoing to be when they are reducing the Monetary Base. Scarlet im taking a look at a onestop shop for all things linked to the election. You have headlines, you have maps. You have charts on how donald trump is polling versus Hillary Clinton. I would go here to the map. In terms of the electoral map that clinton would need to win, bloomberg is predicting she has 203. There are plenty of tossup states. You can go back and look at the results which will show you much of anything but will give you an indication of when the polls close. The first post to close before 8 00, you have a lot of them. This is a great Interactive Chart for you to look at. Matt all right. Speaking of the elections, americans heading to the polls, Hillary Clinton or donald trump, results will come in for another two hours. Until we can preview what to expect i want to bring in john mccormick. I feel like all of the questions have been asked. What states are you watching, what caroline and florida. So tell us something we dont know . We are going to learn some new stuff at 5 00. Exit polls. It will start telling us some of the demographic things we seeing today. Sort of the mood of the nation. The Associated Press does this exit poll