Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20170508 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss May 8, 2017

Citys decision to take down monuments honoring key figures of the confederacy. Supporters filed a lawsuit blocking one statues removal. The city has dismantled one monument, with three more on the hit list. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Julia live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am julie chatterley. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Joe im joe weisenthal. We are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u. S. Stocks trading near record highs and the vix heading for the lowest close in a decade. Joe but the question is, whatd you miss . Scarlet landslide victory for new french president Emmanuel Macron, but can he get a parliamentary majority in june . Cap President Trump get anything done with the pipeline of legislation on the calendar . And frustrating trades David Einhorn ratcheting up the rhetoric on 2 auto names. We will explain why. Lets look at where the major averages stand as we head towards the close. Abigail doolittle is standing by. Abigail not a lot happening for the major averages heading into the close. Doubt, s p 500, and the nasdaq. 1 ,own less than fluctuating between small gains and losses through the day. As you and scarlet and juliet were mentioning, look at the 9. 7, on pace for its lowest close since december 1993. The fear gauge is suggesting there is not a lot of fear after the s p 500 and nasdaq last friday closed new record closes. Where we are seeing more volatility lets look at the other averages that we sometimes look at, including the dow transports, russell 2000, biotech index. Down more than 10 . Look at the biotech index. On pace for its worst day since the middle of march. A number of stocks are racking of the index bragging on that index. It looks like what could be behind us our bearish comments from Morgan Stanley, guidance is a bit too optimistic. We have the Trucking Company sage robinson along with a alaska air, on pace for their worst days since the month of may. Southwest airlines down nearly 2 after the company said it will be upgrading its 30year reservation system, and a former cia out, chief information officer, over at united said anything can go wrong. It is a complicated process. Investors are not looking forward to that in a bullish matter relative to the stock. Speaking of what it could mean to the major averages, this is she have to be tv 8421. G btv 8421. She shared with us her may report, and in that she said that dow syria gives her pause. The dow transports, which put in into the bighe dow decline, macro decline in 2016. More recently did manage to put an alltime high but back below the 2015 highs with the doubt creeping back towards its record highs. He is giving her a bit of pause right now. That we couldal see something along those lines probably too early. Just the divergence is of concern. A wellknown technician out there, joe. Joe thanks, abigail. Definitely a chart to keep our eyes on. Whatd you miss . Now that the president ial campaign is over in france, Emmanuel Macron shifts its focus to governing and other we shift our focus to other consequential elections in europe, like the german original election on sunday, u. K. General election next month, and the french parliamentary elections on june 11. Here to talk about the political risks on the horizon and lessons from france, a visiting fellow on Foreign Policy at the brookings institution. Great to have you on the show. End, the great populist wave really flopped, arguably, landslide. Huge what does that say about the state of european populism . Flopped during the first round of this election, april 23, when Marine Le Pen came second, and made it to the second round but had a very bad 2 Rounds Campaign and a bad facetoface debate with Emmanuel Macron, who looked well prepared, and just a better person to run the country. The populist wave is not going to happen because now he is going to be president and he will appoint a new cabinet, new Prime Minister. He will be heading towards, as you say, parliamentary elections in june, and that is not a foregone conclusion. His body is only about a year old. His parties only about a year old and they havent got any member of parliament at all. Scarlet that will be a challenge. Under what circumstances would Emmanuel Macron become a figurehead as opposed to a leader . Philippe if nobody wants to go into a coalition with his party, lets suppose his party only that50 seats out of 577, he would become a figurehead, as you say. There would be something called cohabitation, which happened three times, not very good for the country. But my own feeling is that this man went into elections with a different mood, which is lets get together, lets have centerleft and centerright working together, lets have the best of both sides. He himself was a minister in the previous government, socialist government, very centerleft, so to speak. He has already been talking to a number of centrists and centerright leaders. My feeling is these people dont want to wait another five years. They will join a Coalition Government and he will manage to pull it together. Having said that, everybody is now facing the general elections and people dont want to lose their parliamentary seats. They are all saying lets go against macron and lets give him a hard time. But at the end of the day, they will join in. Julia lets say you are right and he can pull these parliamentarians into line to support his program. What says that the french are actually willing to reform . I spoke to Emmanuel Macron when he first started working with Francois Hollande and talked about the labor market changes he wanted to make, and everything fizzled. Other french truly ready are the french truly ready to see reform . Philippe it is a very good question. The antimacron front is already building and that is an antiglobalization and antitrade front. That will be music to the ear of some people. On the other hand, he has been elected by a large majority, including by a generation of people who want to work, and nobody believes that Marine Le Pen was going to create a dynamic with more jobs at the key. Isrybody knows that france not going to isolate itself from the European Union, from the eurozone, that the european dynamic is also important. You are right, he does after from the country. He does have to cut some government jobs. And he has to encourage even more entrepreneurship from which he tried to do as a minister. Arguably only partially good but i believe there is a dynamic that should be taken into account, and a number of people dont want him to fail. That would mean possibly another populist wave and even bigger populist wave five years. Julia great points, and i wanted to pick up on a couple of them, the future of europe. This strengthens the germanfrench axis we seek it can we use can i use the word merkron as the future . What does this mean for future negotiations with brexit and donald trump . Said he wants to work closely with macron, but what is that strengthened axis major policy Going Forward . Is appe on brexit, there snap election on june 8, and Prime Minister theresa may is hoping to get a mandate from her own people to give a hard time to these europeans. I dont think it will be very easy. With a new president in france who already says he is not going to make it easy for britain to have a market access, which britain wants, to the European Union. In other words, britain wont be able to have it both ways. Germany most likely, you alluded to the recent win by the cdu, the chancellors party in germany i mean, regional elections. He is doing well as well she might still be the chancellor in september. These two people will be facing theresa may and they are not going to make it easy for brexit to take place, and they will ask for a huge check in any case. As far as the transelect relationship is concerned, transatlantic relationship is concerned, donald trump is now in the white house and he will have to deal with europeans, the european project back on track, and europe as a market, europe as a unified force. It is quite different from what was advocated by himself, the president , and some of his advisers. Remember, stephen bannon, the eitbart website, has been advocating the nationstate as opposed to eu. Scarlet what happens to Marine Le Pen now that she has lost election . That she team up with other populists across europe and maker influence felt that make her influence felt that way . No, that would be very contrary to what she has been saying. France is about france and closing the borders and all this. She is a member of the european parliament. It is a bit of a joke. She hardly ever goes there. She gets a salary. Some of it she uses for her own political purposes, and she has been sued for that. She has been having for parliamentary elections. My gut feeling is next year there will be a Party Congress and they will change the name of the National Front and they will try to make it more of a populist force and they will find a different name. Not going to be easy, because as long as you have a le pen chairing it, it will be the National Front, with all the background behind it her father being some kind of neofascist. It is not easy for her to make people forget about this, the history of the National Front. 40 years of history the war in algeria, colonial times. But she will try to be the number one opponent to Emmanuel Macron. Julia thank you so much for speaking to us. Physically cooler, philly glencore Brookings Institute visiting fellow coming up, why the chief strategist at Morgan Stanley management thinks there are better Investment Opportunities outside the u. S. From new york, this is bloomberg. Julia whatd you miss . Now that french president ial elect Emmanuel Macron won a decisive victory against Marine Le Pen, the prospects of a more unified europe are becoming clear. What does that mean for markets . , strategist at Morgan Stanley investment management, join bloomberg earlier today to talk about what he sees as waning u. S. Influence. Ruchir i think so, because here is what is turning, and when these trains turning, they take a while. European equities versus u. S. Equities are coming off a 50year low in terms of relative performance, a multidecade low. Typically when those trains turn and there was positive economics behind it, it tends to last for a while. For me it is good news, even if the flow into the United States is overwhelmingly positive. There are many things to suggest that the u. S. Is now a market that seems to be entering rosa underperformance compared to the rest of the world relative underperformance compared to the rest of the world. There are a few factors. One is the dollar. The multiyear bull market in the dollar seems to be drawing to a close. As the 2en as great big bull markets we have seen. There is a case to be made that European Equity outperformance, especially in dollar terms, could continue to last for a while and the flows will reflect that. The other point is Economic Growth is turning around. The eurozone is growing at a pace that is slightly faster than the United States and that is happening a lot because of catchup. Europe has suffered 2 possessions in the last two to eight years. Property in some markets. There is catchup play going on here. The big story is u. S. Versus ope train is turning hitting a low in terms of relative performance, going back possibly 40, 50 years. What does that mean for spreads, and what should it be as the magician takes place . Ruchir a generic terms of the fact that rates it should a narrow entrance of effective rates catch up bund yield at the end of the year . Ruchir possible. It is realistic to expect as we get to yearend. We talk about growth, particularly investment rather than trade, one of the important factors is demographics. You have productivity and demographics. One or the other. You wrote an interesting piece in the new york times, just out, saying that for growth we need immigration. Take us through that. Ruchir when researching this piece, i found this piece of data to be the most interesting. If you look at over the , the growth of the United States, europe, and japan has been exactly identical. We here in the United States like to think about what is our superior advantage compared to these countries, and we think of productivity. We have Silicon Valley, a more dynamically reports, and the fact that we have these great educational institutions. But what i found actually fascinating is that the big difference in Economic Growth rates between these three large blocks of the developed world is largely explained by demographics. The United States has better demographics of the eurozone and japan. The United States has grown faster than the other two countries, and a large part of the demographic is explained by immigration. The United States has historically relied much more on immigration to grow. But the population is slowing down everywhere, and japan is the opposite. Japan is basically zero immigration. That is one of the main reasons the japanese economy is cast as a laggard will stop as a laggard. It is an important shift in our thinking. The really important part of demographics, explaining to you why has the United States grown faster than europe and japan, it is not productivity so much as the more graphics, which is a function of immigration. Speakingchir sharma there, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley investment management. Scarlet time for some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. Sinclair broadcast is buying Tribune Media for 3. 9 billion, marking the first big acquisitions since regulators easy limit on tv station ownership in the u. S. Buying tribute would give sinclair access to big media markets like new york, chicago, and miami. Sinclair may sell certain stations are currently owns to comply with antitrust regulations. Blackrock is in advanced talks to fund and the infirm. Blackrock and several other state run lenders will find the providerayment service 100 million. If completed, it would make the second startup with more than 1 billion from the indians in tech industry. Bill ackman is recommending Howard Hughes to investors. Speaking in new york, he says Howard Hughes has a huge start over the past six years, and that this is one of the most opportune times to invest. Pershing square is the single largest shareholder of that stock. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Joe i want to bring you some headlines from the investment conference. David einhorn saying pretty negative comments about core laboratories, a company that does Petroleum Reservoir services to major independent oil and gas producers. He says the company has a 45 potential downside on the stock. It is not a secular growth story. The company is likely to underperform its peers. They are confused about core labs. Instantly falling 2. 5 . There is little job there was ambiguity about his comments, but very negative. 45 downside for Petroleum Reservoir Management Company core labs. From new york, this is bloomberg. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Everyone talks of the strong earnings season we have had so far and the foundation for record highs in the s p 500 and nasdaq, but bank of America Merrill lynch points out Global Growth is more important because of how exposed s p 500 members are the foreign sales. Our lead blogger for markets live with this chart together. Tracks u. S. Governors that get a High Percentage of sales from europe. Clear out performer this year, compared to the stoxx 600, which is in purple, and the s p 500, which is in blue. Euro terms,0 is in dollar terms, of even more. Bank of Americamerrill Lynch says that so far this for any season, many multinationals are highlighting strength in overseas markets as drivers of their earnings. That was especially the case for industrials. It is something we continue to watch for. Joe arguably the strong recovery in europe right now has been the under discussed story, with the political risks out of the way, more and more people will Pay Attention with fundamentals looking pretty good. Speaking of things that are looking good or at least people , often good, the vix called a fear gauge, although not really a measure of implied volatility, at its lowest level 1993, point today is a extraordinarily low implied volatility. This chart looks at what usually happens to the vix and the s p close. T we get sub10 the answer is, nothing conclusive. People are so complacent, or last

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